What a Yield-Curve Inversion Really Says About the U.S. Economy

Discussion in 'Economics & Trade' started by Thedimon, Aug 22, 2019.

Tags:
  1. Chester_Murphy

    Chester_Murphy Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2017
    Messages:
    7,503
    Likes Received:
    2,227
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    The fed needs to lower interest rates a little.
     
  2. Thedimon

    Thedimon Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2018
    Messages:
    12,121
    Likes Received:
    8,714
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Ok, how do you explain the trend where lately we’ve been worried more about deflation instead of inflation.
    How does inverses curve play a role in a scenario where deflation is a higher risk?
     
  3. Thedimon

    Thedimon Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2018
    Messages:
    12,121
    Likes Received:
    8,714
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    No, economy is going strong. The rates should be increased. I think 4.5% to 5% is a safe bet and will help smoothen future recession. The tax cut played as a large stimulus - no reason for Fed to keep stimulating the economy.
     
    Chester_Murphy likes this.
  4. JakeStarkey

    JakeStarkey Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 4, 2016
    Messages:
    25,747
    Likes Received:
    9,526
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Show us how that (deflation) affects what we are discussing. It's your point: elaborate.
     
    Last edited: Aug 22, 2019
  5. JakeStarkey

    JakeStarkey Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 4, 2016
    Messages:
    25,747
    Likes Received:
    9,526
    Trophy Points:
    113
    That actually makes some sense, but neither the Fed nor Trump will agree with you. Remember when Palin was the craziest person in American politics? Good times!

    Two points higher in the interest rates would make the coming recession not much more than choppy water, but that is not going to happen according to the word of the Fed and the WH.
     
    Last edited: Aug 22, 2019
  6. Thedimon

    Thedimon Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2018
    Messages:
    12,121
    Likes Received:
    8,714
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male

    From my OP:

     
  7. JakeStarkey

    JakeStarkey Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 4, 2016
    Messages:
    25,747
    Likes Received:
    9,526
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Interesting yet unproven and it does not account for the recent interaction of the last seven recessions preceded by inversions.
     
    Last edited: Aug 22, 2019
  8. Thedimon

    Thedimon Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2018
    Messages:
    12,121
    Likes Received:
    8,714
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Well, last recession was 10 years ago and we did experience deflation.
    Look at the historical inflation rates.

    B139F83B-4F65-4A8D-9C8C-3238E0F6826A.jpeg
     
    Last edited: Aug 22, 2019
  9. JakeStarkey

    JakeStarkey Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 4, 2016
    Messages:
    25,747
    Likes Received:
    9,526
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Well, OK. I will let it go for tonight. We have some time yet.
     
  10. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2018
    Messages:
    20,312
    Likes Received:
    8,774
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Hey, It's your article that you bolded.

    When is the Qtr. up?
     
  11. Thedimon

    Thedimon Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2018
    Messages:
    12,121
    Likes Received:
    8,714
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    8/29.
     
  12. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2018
    Messages:
    20,312
    Likes Received:
    8,774
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    I think your calendar is upside down.
     
  13. Thedimon

    Thedimon Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2018
    Messages:
    12,121
    Likes Received:
    8,714
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Are we talking about 2nd quarter GDP report release?
     
  14. Chester_Murphy

    Chester_Murphy Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2017
    Messages:
    7,503
    Likes Received:
    2,227
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    I'd leave it alone, then.
     
  15. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2018
    Messages:
    20,312
    Likes Received:
    8,774
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    No. We are talking about your article with a yearly GDP forecast of 1.8%.
    Your trying to talk about 2 qtr. GDP.
     
  16. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2018
    Messages:
    20,312
    Likes Received:
    8,774
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    I don't think the Fed. knows what to do because they have no idea what Trump will do.
    The big unknown is the tariffs.
    I think I'm with you --- wait Trump out.
     
    Chester_Murphy likes this.
  17. Chester_Murphy

    Chester_Murphy Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2017
    Messages:
    7,503
    Likes Received:
    2,227
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Trump won't do anything. If there is really a recession, he will lower payroll taxes. Someone must have told him he was jumping the gun on rumors.
     
  18. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2018
    Messages:
    20,312
    Likes Received:
    8,774
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    I don't think Ms. Nancy will go for it unless he has some pay for(s).
     
  19. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2018
    Messages:
    20,312
    Likes Received:
    8,774
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Same way with the tariffs. Don't hit the consumer in the pocket book if you want to get reelected. :)
     
  20. yardmeat

    yardmeat Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2010
    Messages:
    56,163
    Likes Received:
    30,631
    Trophy Points:
    113
    We could save ourselves a lot of uncertainty by returning to the Constitutional way of doing tariffs.
     
  21. FreshAir

    FreshAir Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Mar 2, 2012
    Messages:
    150,180
    Likes Received:
    62,818
    Trophy Points:
    113
    well we know Trump is lying
     
  22. Chester_Murphy

    Chester_Murphy Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2017
    Messages:
    7,503
    Likes Received:
    2,227
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Don't you think that's wrong for either party to do? In my mind, it's extorsion. It should be illegal. Just say yes or no and why. If you want something, ask for it in a bill. I mean, on it's own.
     
    Last edited: Aug 23, 2019
  23. Chester_Murphy

    Chester_Murphy Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2017
    Messages:
    7,503
    Likes Received:
    2,227
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Really, though it may have been a bit detrimental to consumers, he is attempting to pressure China. I think his intentions are correct. His methods may be the only option he has.
     
  24. JakeStarkey

    JakeStarkey Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 4, 2016
    Messages:
    25,747
    Likes Received:
    9,526
    Trophy Points:
    113
    The American voter does not want your reasoning, Chester, they want cheap products, and they will punish Trump.
     
  25. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2018
    Messages:
    20,312
    Likes Received:
    8,774
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Asking him to pay for tax cuts with spending cuts is extortion? I don't think so.
     

Share This Page