Democrats 2020: 50 states, 50 candidates

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by Phil, Nov 3, 2018.

  1. mentor59

    mentor59 Well-Known Member

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    This guy is a lazy bum. What are his motives for saying he is running? I don't know. It certainly is not to be president.
     
  2. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

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    In the first 2 debates they're leaving out Gravel, Messam, Moulton and Bullock.
    I'm angry about that but worse yet I now have to assess the merits of Andrew Yang and Marianne Williamson.

    Yang is very young and has been changing businesses rapidly since college.
    Like Trump he has no political history and comes from New York.
    Unlike Trump he has no name recognition, no obvious constituency, no bankruptcies.
    He shouldn't get far but can outspend almost anyone, obliterating several candidates.

    I also now have to assess the merits of Marianne Williamson.
    She's 66, turns 68 next year so too old. She's never run for any other office and never intends to.
    She should get nowhere but as a motivational speaker can charm an audience when she gets one and of course owes nothing to anyone.
    It worked for Trump, but she has a long way to go for name recognition.
     
  3. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

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    Former Pennsylvania Congressman Joe Sestak became the 25th Democrat to announce last weekend.

    The timing reveals that this race is as wide open now as ever.

    Sestak turns 69 in December, 2020, but that still leaves him sixth oldest in the field of 25. It may be he had the sense to confirm his health was adequate for the race and maybe 4 years on the job afterwards.

    The other thing about the timing is strategic and can quickly bring him into the list of contenders. As a former Navy Admiral he can present the notion that he joined the race because the incident with Iran reveals we need a Commander in Chief, not just a kind person handing out money.

    Sestak spent only 4 years in the House of Representatives, then defeated turncoat old Senator Arlen Spector in the 2010 Democratic primary, only to lose the general election to Pat Toomey. That was the Senate election that was meddled with...BY THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION.

    Sestak did not attempt to return to Congress, Senate or Governor and looked retired. Perhaps he, like some in this race and Republican Rick Santorum of his state, knows he can not win any race at home so he seeks the top now.

    They say he won in a Republican district. That means he has a message that is on the far right of the Democratic Party and can get that part of the voting public. That's not a wide band of people but a strong 10% everywhere can help someone through the crowd. Independents and Republicans will be voting as Democrats next year and he might devour that support.

    Sestak's long Navy career towers over the others with a military background and might wipe Moulton and Gabbard from the race before it begins. His deployments were direct orders from the Clinton administration, so he represents those 8 years better than anyone in the race. He has no baggage regarding the Obama administration and can freely attack it on the grounds of being unprepared militarily. Will he dare? If anyone dares it can be he.

    The Democratic candidate is not likely to win without the state of Pennsylvania, so Sestak will be one of the best possible choices for Vice President with most possible running mates. If they pick one of the underqualified candidates his experience will put voters at ease. If they pick one of the qualified people he'll make the team look stronger than their opponents and well-rounded.

    Sestak could make the ticket.
     
  4. XploreR

    XploreR Well-Known Member

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    Interesting idea, but I'm finding it difficult to choose among the current 20 candidates running. Fifty would be a nightmare. I think 2020 is an exception due to the extremism of the Trump admin. Let's hope so.
     
  5. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

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    Eric Swalwell has withdrawn from the race. Since he's from California and the state is still represented-and by the right person Kamala Harris-my only obligation in this thread is to assess his absence with regard to her.
    The one percent he supposedly had is not worth considering. In California however he no doubt has regional support. Will that go to Harris? We can't be sure, but the possibility he would take some crucial votes from her in her home state must have been weighing on her mind since he announced. Now that's gone.
    Harris is still far from certain to win California. Bernie has a lot of strength there. Biden (or whomever steals his claim on the consensus) will surely get good numbers. Booker and Castro have the ethnic angle. Harris could get the black vote from Booker but she has a long fight ahead on that front.
    If she loses her home state her credibility may be lost after super Tuesday anyway. A victory only in her home state still leaves her far from the top.
     
  6. Doug1943

    Doug1943 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    In a time when jests are few, I loved Phil's dry irony in characterizing the candidates. Made me smile repeatedly.
    Note that there are ways to get the votes of the younger generation of Democrats: (1) discover an ethnic minority ancestor, a la Fauxcahontas.
    (2) announce you're changing gender.

    To get serious: what about Jim Webb?
     
    Last edited: Jul 9, 2019
  7. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

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    I've got plenty of jokes, but I put most of them on Facebook and Tumblr.
    The newest candidate is billionaire Tom Steyer. He's from California, so he's going for Swalwell's one percent right away. Steyer's a specialist in hedge funds, so he's a natural successor to the Bushes.
    He's 62 and announces the same day Perot dies. Perot first ran at 62.
    Perot probably died because he couldn't bear to watch O'Rourke, Castro and Williamson disgrace Texas.
    Either that or he joins the thousands who have died of Trumpitis, almost so many Trump might win reelection because his haters die before the election.

    Steyer can make Yang look like an amateur and should swallow up the vote for non-politicians. His efforts to impeach the President may be the issue he'll run on, basically admitting that they're not going to peal any votes from him with the radical ideas they're pushing, but by causing a Constitutional crisis in an election year they might scare voters into voting Democrat because for Trump to win the election after being removed from office might be a big problem.
    I don't yet discount the possibility Trump could be impeached, convicted, out of office and still win the election. What would we do?
     
  8. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

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    Mike Gravel quietly dropped out of the race over the weekend, possibly because he expects to drop dead soon. I expect one more candidate to get a bad diagnosis before the conventions.
    For my purposes, this leaves Alaska open for another candidate. Of course I favor Mark Begich. He's rested enough. It would be a late start but he can't do worse than Gravel would have.
     
  9. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

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    Hickenlooper dropped out, reducing the field to 23 again.
    As an old white man with moderate positions and a strange name he had little chance, especially since there are older candidates and more conservative candidates and another candidate from his home state (Colorado).
    This should be good news for Bennet, Moulton and Inslee.
    (Inslee is now the best qualified candidate under 70 if anyone cares.) Bennet and Moulton represent moderate positions and the mountain west.
     
  10. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

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    Inslee dropped out today, leaving Bullock as the only Governor in the race and the obvious choice for voters who want a qualified President young enough to serve 2 terms.
    The loss of 2 of the best at this stage in the process shows that it is going to be very hard for a person with integrity to go far in this race. You have to either drop integrity for attention-getting headlines or abandon sound policy you've endorsed all your life to draw votes.
    So most of those who remain have no integrity, no use for sound reasoning and no plans to govern wisely. Few have experience worthy of the position. Few have credentials worthy of consideration.
     
  11. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

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    Moulton dropped out moments ago. He was kept out of the debates because his only value in the race was to chip off support from Warren in New Hampshire. Gabbard says the people at the first debate were trying to make Warren the winner.
    If I were a Democrat and believed that I'd be outraged. Remember, Warren is the candidate Trump wants to run against.
    With him out of the way she can expect to dominate southeastern New Hampshire (likely 15% in the primary).
    That could be the death knell for the campaigns of all but one female rival.
     
  12. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

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    Kirsten Gillibrand dropped out, immediately after learning she will not be invited to the September 12 debate.

    She should have waited a few weeks. There's sure to be a backlash for the arbitrary rules the DNC put in place for these debates. While other candidates have good cause to complain they were singled out for exclusion, she does not, but could go for the ride with some like Steyer and DeBlasio, whom I expect will find an alternate way to reach the public.



    Of course she'll be an excellent choice for VP, especially with one of the men. With Biden she would leave many voters at ease, since he might die or become senile before his term is over.

    The DNC is doing a disservice to its voters with these rules. In any past format, people like Gillibrand, Inslee and Hickenlooper would have been allowed in the debates based on their credentials. Fringe candidates like Yang and Williamson would have to do something special to get in.



    The worst thing about her early exit is that she did things right. She appeared on Colbert in November and January, using the latter visit to announce the creation of her exploratory committee. Those lucky stiffs got to do research for a few months, then assured her she had a chance to win. They should be publicly spanked. Those people who announced on a whim with no preparation have no one to blame if they get nowhere.

    The best thing may be that with her out of the way Colbert can pick a new candidate. He has influence with the middle left urban Democrats and can push one of the top 10 a few notches. There should be no secret who he wants because the one place Americans demand honesty is late night comedians.



    What happens to her 1% of the vote?

    If they wanted her because she's a pretty white woman they can only go for Klobuchar. Klobuchar has home field advantage in Iowa and another 1% there could jump her ahead of 3 candidates.

    If they chose her because she's a pretty woman, the next choice is Harris or Gabbard. With Gabbard also out of the next debate that could default to Harris, but the next debate won't change many votes. Mostly it will draw new voters who have not considered anything yet. Those new voters will have no access to the bottom 10 but their votes may divide in any combination.

    If any woman will do, voters will trust the polls and go with the leading choice at the time. As of now Warren will be the beneficiary in polls by phone or mail. When the primaries come, it may be very different, but the one perceived first in that category gets a boost every time.

    If anyone limited their choice to qualified women the right age, Klobuchar fights it out with Harris.

    Those looking for a good President can perhaps move from her to Bullock or Bennet, but they'll need to look somewhere besides the debates to find them.



    While this system is taking its toll, the DNC is overstating the importance of these early debates. Debates shown only on MSNBC or even CNN are not going to draw many real voters. The crowd, even with 10 people on one night, is hard for Americans. Obviously the reason Biden is still far ahead is because most people in any poll have seen none of the debates and know nothing about the bottom 15 candidates that they didn't know 6 months ago.

    What really matters now is the ground work going on in Iowa and New Hampshire. We can only guess who is gaining that way.
     
  13. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

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    The DNC has a long history of viewing candidate selection as a far too important task to simply leave to the voters.

    SOMETHING TO HIDE: Hickenlooper Dropped Presidential Bid On Personal Disclosure Due Date.

    Hickenlooper Dropped Presidential Bid On Personal Disclosure Due Date
    Former governor requested two extensions while running for president

    [​IMG]

    Took his mom to see XXX pornflick, Deep Throat
     
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  14. Moi621

    Moi621 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    @Zorro

    It seems we should recognize
    the DNC corruptions will give '20 to Trump
    as it was in '16.


    I could not bring myself to vote Democratic in '16
    because I could not support those corruptions.

    How many like me? Enough!
    Sighing and accepting a corrupted Democratic Party
    as the lesser evil puts us in the Two Evil Party system.
    I hold the Democratic Party to higher standards as I did in
    '68 voting NIXON.
    Voted Obama in '08. He lied to me.


    Moi :oldman:




    No Canada-1.png
     
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  15. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

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    To me it seems like Trump's priorities have been pretty much what he said they would be.
     
    Last edited: Sep 10, 2019
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  16. Sahba*

    Sahba* Well-Known Member

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    Moi, I had no idea that you were so... err, ummm - mature... :) Now I'll have to start viewing your posts w/ a sense of gravitas, lol...
     
    Last edited: Sep 10, 2019
  17. Moi621

    Moi621 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    We remain with boots on the ground in Afghanistan.
    Trump said . . .
     
  18. Moi621

    Moi621 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I got a lot more gravitas with age.
    Especially around the middle.


     
  19. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

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    That's a difficult one. I didn't know how he was going to land on that. I know he wants out, but, he doesn't want a situation like ISIS forming in Iraq in the aftermath of Obama pulling out.
     
  20. Moi621

    Moi621 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    And decades ago, it was the Viet Cong.
    Don't care.



    About JFK's advisors lying to him to keep a "War We Must" policy.
    Even sabotaging his peace efforts with Khrushchev & Castro & Vietnam
    And of course "they" did the same to LBJ but he was slower to recognize it.


    Just because we withdraw the boots on the ground,
    that doesn't mean we stop intelligence gathering.
    I mean if we keep "drone blasting" them, don't you think

    it is reasonable they keep suicide bombing us?
     
  21. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

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    I'm glad I'm not the one making these decisions. I don't know the right answers and I don't like the available options.
     
  22. Moi621

    Moi621 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The War We Must option has not worked
    except maybe in Grenada.


    ONE thing I credit Bill Clinton was getting out of Somalia
    and not sending more forces.
     
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  23. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

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    I thought I lost my membership when I found myself logged out and unable to return. There seems to be no way to just ask the administration. They said they'd send a message to my email but my original email no longer works. I was about to create a new membership when I found my way in now.

    In any case, DeBlasio dropped out. That should change nothing.
    The one big question is who should win New York. Yang is suddenly the only remaining candidate who lives there but can he pull it out?
    Steyer and Sanders were born there but moved out. Is that worth anything?
    Do candidates like Biden or Warren really have what it takes to move the mass of New Yorkers, both those in the city and the very different folks upstate?
    Will Booker have the inside track in urban centers? That was enough for Hillary to beat Bernie?
    New York votes April 28. Of course most hope and expect the race to be over by then, but if it isn't that week will make a big difference. New York does not have privacy that day either. Other east coast states could combine to eliminate a surviving western candidate, or prove such a candidate has strength everywhere.
     
  24. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

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    Ryan dropped out, dropping the list to 18.
    There was never much hope for him anyway. Going from the House of representatives to President is a task no one has mastered. He could not leave Congress after so many years for anything less that a likely win or retirement. He's much too young to retire.
    There was no hope he could get into the debates again. Other candidates also have little hope, but he's one of the few who have something to lose by remaining in the race a long time.
    Gabbard is next to face a decision about staying in the House of Representatives and Booker is the only Senator up for reelection in 2020. He'll have tough decisions soon too.
    Ryan joins the list of moderates who gave up after getting nowhere. It's not clear if the voters have no use for a candidate who presents only attainable goals, but the media has no use for boring and scholarly speeches.
    Has Ryan spoken about the impeachment frenzy? How radical would it be if he votes not to impeach. Remember, if Trump gets a second term Ryan would then have an advantage in future Presidential runs and good chances to be Ohio's next new Senator whenever that job becomes available.
    The biggest question for the campaign is whether Biden is going to be allowed to monopolize the moderate primary vote. Once his identical views were considered on the far left of the party.
    With Ohio no longer represented Klobuchar and Buttigieg can offer the 2 very different versions of what midwestern values mean in the Democratic party. That voice is mostly uncommitted at this time and often escapes the pundits and pollsters.
     
  25. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

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    Kay Hagan, my pick for North Carolina, has died at 66 of Powassan virus.
    Maybe she stayed out because she was sick. I figured one of the 50 would die before this was over. Bernie apparently is willing to die on the campaign trail. either he's insane or so passionate about his unique message it's worth everything. For that matter, who wants to live through 4 more years of Trump?
    Her death should make the 6 candidates older than she reconsider their candidacies. Her death should make people planning to vote for those candidates (4 of the top 8) reconsider.
    If you think you might die before the term is over, don't run. If you think a candidate will die before the term is over, don't vote for him.
    I might be the only person who voted for Obama so John McCain could die of old age.
     

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