Trump's NY re-elect numbers are brutal....

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by Statistikhengst, Oct 16, 2019.

  1. perotista

    perotista Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2014
    Messages:
    16,974
    Likes Received:
    5,723
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Same here my friend. Yes, the polls were dead on. All within the margin of error for 2016. Now without even looking at the generic congressional polls, just going by what I call at risk districts, here was my forecast for 2018 on the House.

    House of Representatives


    Currently the House of Representative consists of 240 Republicans and 195 Democrats. For 2018 the Republicans have 62 seats at risk of switching parties, up four from last month vs. 8 for the Democrats, up two from last month. The Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to take control of the House. They’ll gain 38, 15 more than needed. This is the same projected increase as last month. The number of safe seats in the House now stands at 178 seats for the Republicans, 187 for the Democrats. The rest are up for grabs. The new House will have 233 Democrats to 202 Republicans. There is an outside possibility the Democrats could gain as many as 50 seats, not likely, but not out of the realm of possibility. On the Republican side, holding their losses to 30 seats is the minimum losses that are possible. Regardless, the Democrats will regain control of the house, it is now just a question of how many seats.

    We do things differently, use different methods, but seem to converge on the results.
     
    Derideo_Te and Statistikhengst like this.
  2. lpast

    lpast Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Dec 26, 2011
    Messages:
    629
    Likes Received:
    575
    Trophy Points:
    93
    Trumps NY elect numbers were brutal he didnt take NY and hes not wooing them on re election.

    NY is in competition with california to see which liberal agendas will implode the state first have it sink into the atlantic or the pacific, personally I hope its a tie and they both sink :)
     
  3. Moi621

    Moi621 Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2013
    Messages:
    19,294
    Likes Received:
    7,606
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male

    Of Course We Can Trust Scientific :worship: Modern polling practices.
    Romney believed his polls that he would win that fateful night.
    Hillary and hers her fateful night too.



    Poll Vendor: How much money y'got and what do you wish the poll to confirm?
    Can it be more evident these last years?

    Does the media recognize the entirety of the Trumpberg?

    TrumpSupport.jpg
     
  4. carlberky

    carlberky Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2019
    Messages:
    461
    Likes Received:
    229
    Trophy Points:
    43
    Gender:
    Male
    Some not so enthusiastic Congressmen are already disappearing after the 2018 elections.
     
  5. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,819
    Likes Received:
    19,374
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male

    So, you didn't read the OP, nöööö.....
     
    Derideo_Te likes this.
  6. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,819
    Likes Received:
    19,374
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Which ones do you mean, specifically?
     
  7. Moi621

    Moi621 Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2013
    Messages:
    19,294
    Likes Received:
    7,606
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male

    Please type slowly for me.

    What did I miss in the OP

    Moi the dyslexic
    :oldman:
     
    Dutch likes this.
  8. Dutch

    Dutch Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2010
    Messages:
    46,383
    Likes Received:
    15,488
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    These 35 Republican Congress incumbents prematurely ejaculating themselves from the House were not enthusiastic , they were Nevertrumpers.
     
  9. Lee S

    Lee S Moderator Staff Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 20, 2012
    Messages:
    10,649
    Likes Received:
    2,621
    Trophy Points:
    113
    The margin of victory in New York is exactly as important as the margin of victory in Kansas. Kansas has been a red state forever and margin means nothing with the Electoral College. New York is a blue state and the number of Electoral College representatives will be the same if the margin of victory is one vote or 20 million votes. The only states that matter are states that can either go red or blue. They will be the sole deciders of who is the president. Even so, the margin of victory is meaningless in those swing states where one more vote or a million more votes count exactly the same.

    The margin of victory in New York is infinitely less important than who will win in either Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, Indiana, Ohio, and Iowa.
     
    Dutch likes this.
  10. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,819
    Likes Received:
    19,374
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Sure. I explained it in the OP with "margins matter"

     
  11. Moi621

    Moi621 Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2013
    Messages:
    19,294
    Likes Received:
    7,606
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Not Hardly!
    Make it simple
    Make a statement.
    Simple sentences.
    Think Hemingway.
     
  12. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,819
    Likes Received:
    19,374
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    I am starting to like you.
    Ok, I wrote it in the OP, in very simple fashion:

    Is THAT simple enough for you, or should I send up smoke-signals?
     
  13. Moi621

    Moi621 Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2013
    Messages:
    19,294
    Likes Received:
    7,606
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Thank YOU

    I disagree.
    People's wallets are feeling fat.
    More fat than Bush, Jr. or Obama.
    Why would they exchange that wallet fat for . . .

    Is that simple enough to disagree with all them numbers and statistics?
    ;)
     
  14. Texan

    Texan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 7, 2014
    Messages:
    9,129
    Likes Received:
    4,703
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Trump had about 50000 people show up for his rally in Dallas last night. It looked like they had fun.

    [​IMG]

    Outside of the packed arena.
    [​IMG]
     
    Dutch likes this.
  15. Bowerbird

    Bowerbird Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 13, 2009
    Messages:
    92,561
    Likes Received:
    74,019
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Female
    The ones outside - protestors?

    See plenty of empty seats inside

    But tell me - what percentage of the population did this represent

    And

    How many were there just to see a clown show?
     
    Derideo_Te likes this.
  16. Texan

    Texan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 7, 2014
    Messages:
    9,129
    Likes Received:
    4,703
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    There were about 50000 Trump supporters, maybe 1000 protesters, 1800 police, and maybe a couple of thousand at an alternate rally for Beto in a theater. He “almost “ sold it out according to the local news. Trump packed the American Airlines Arena to capacity of over 20000 people and had even more standing outside watching the event on closed circuit tv.
     
  17. Dutch

    Dutch Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2010
    Messages:
    46,383
    Likes Received:
    15,488
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    :applause:
     
  18. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,819
    Likes Received:
    19,374
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    How do you fit 50,000 supporters into an arena that can, by law, only hold 20,000? What kind of magical Trumpian bullshit math is that?

    You do realize how foolish your formulation looks, right?
     
    Bowerbird and Derideo_Te like this.
  19. Texan

    Texan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 7, 2014
    Messages:
    9,129
    Likes Received:
    4,703
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    I didn’t say that. The AAC was surrounded by red hats during the event.
     
  20. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,819
    Likes Received:
    19,374
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male

    Ok, I can buy that. Thanks for the clarification. So, where were the other 33,000? Because the stadium was NOT filled to capacity inside and very clearly the aerial footage does not show 33,000 outside of the event. So, where are they?
     
    Bowerbird and Derideo_Te like this.
  21. Blaster3

    Blaster3 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2018
    Messages:
    6,008
    Likes Received:
    5,302
    Trophy Points:
    113
    what the op shows/proves is that negativity sells, & with the constant, repetitive negativity (mostly false unfounded allegations & outright lies) being spewed by every dem & their beloved msm, the sheeple are being bamboozled...

    if these polsters actually polled people that don't watch reality tv shows, the numbers would be more inline with the realworld views.
     
  22. StarFox

    StarFox Banned

    Joined:
    May 1, 2018
    Messages:
    2,515
    Likes Received:
    2,876
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    If you did a poll that did not mention Trumps name and just asked people how their lives have improved financially since January 2017 Trump would be at 100% approval rating. Dems know this which is why they are scared to death. Minorities by the millions are going to tell you to your face two seconds before they close the curtain that they are voting for whatever idiot is on the ballot for the dems but the second that curtain closes they will vote for what is best for them and their children. the left will destroy you if you dare not toe the party line, this is why all the polls were wrong in 2016, people know it for certain now so there is zero chance for accurate polling. Trump by a landslide this go around. Your only play dems is more bogus impeachment attempts.
     
  23. Bluesguy

    Bluesguy Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2010
    Messages:
    153,978
    Likes Received:
    39,228
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    He "brutally" lost NY in 2016 just as every Republican candidate since Reagan..............so what?
     
    Moi621 likes this.
  24. Blaster3

    Blaster3 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2018
    Messages:
    6,008
    Likes Received:
    5,302
    Trophy Points:
    113
    just another biased poll...
    here's the sampling, notice that they ensured 48% (that's almost half) of those polled were democrats... geeze, peeps are bonkers with polsters.

    definition, polster: a shyster, a charlatan, a bamboozler

    upload_2019-11-3_11-37-56.png

    full list:
    upload_2019-11-3_11-38-31.png

    edit: added link to that polster
    https://scri.siena.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/SNY101811_Crosstabs.pdf
     
    Last edited: Nov 3, 2019
  25. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,819
    Likes Received:
    19,374
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    You still missed the point of the OP. What a shame. I recommend an English reading course for you, one that focuses on comprehension discernment. Here the crux of the OP, once again, for those are are quite obviously VERY slow on the uptake:

    Better luck to you next time.
     
    Derideo_Te likes this.

Share This Page