Democrats 2020: 50 states, 50 candidates

With Hagan deceased North Carolina's best hope for a candidate is Brad Miller, 67 next year. He was in the House of Representatives from 2003-13 when his district was eliminated by the Republican legislature.
He can tell that story loudly on a promise to end gerrymandering. You'll notice the Congressmen in the race who owed their job to gerrymandering never mention it.

 

O'Rourke dropped out. They were asking where his voters will go now. They already went. It took a while to recognize that the candidate has no substance.
The big difference might be that Castro now has a whimper of hope. At least he's the only person in the race anyone will think is Latino. If he can somehow win Texas and limp along on the votes of fellow Latinos and Hispanics his support might become essential to someone hitting 50% on the first ballot. That's all half these candidates can hope for now.
With the race down to 17 they should do the undercard and uppercard debates like the Republicans did. There's little to worry about. no one from the undercard debate went past New Hampshire.

 

Massachusetts: Deval Patrick

There are many noteworthy Democrats in Massachusetts. I love Ed Markey but he missed his chance. Elizabeth Warren will be a disaster as the nominee. This is not the right time to find another Kennedy. The best choice is Obama's friend Deval Patrick. Obama took his slogan and changed one word. This man has 8 years as Governor behind him. He's younger and blacker. He's the man in 2020.

Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick has joined the race, bringing the number of “serious” candidates back to 18.

I selected him a the best choice from Massachusetts. A 2-term Democratic Governor from Massachusetts sounds like no accomplishment, but the last such Democrat was in office more than 40 years ago. His achievements as Governor are not memorable but 2 terms as Governor gives him better credentials than anyone under 70.

He's 63 and a close friend of President Obama, so close he should get a full endorsement promptly.

On that note, this may give Biden an opportunity to gracefully exit the race. He can invent any medical excuse, but the fact remains it will be embarrassing for him to be anywhere but first at any time in the race, and too strenuous to vigorously campaign for a year just to get the most stressful job in the world.

Sanders is willing to make this a suicide mission because he can't win. Biden will probably die if he wins.

On a more practical note, Patrick can torpedo Elizabeth Warren in New Hampshire. She's counting on the Democrats from southeastern New Hampshire to continue their tradition of voting for the candidate from Massachusetts and for their votes to outnumber the people from western New Hampshire that vote for the candidate from Vermont and the remaining Democrats who vote for the best candidate.

If those persons vote for the best candidate from Massachusetts, Patrick should get all of them, leaving her only with feminists and racists. The trouble is, most of them are feminists and racists, so she still might get two-thirds of southeastern Massachusetts. That still might be third place in the state with Patrick in a crowd at 4th and lower.

He also sinks any pulse for Messam and could derail Booker and stop any pulse for Castro. If Obama endorses him against his former cabinet officer and his VP it will be clear-as it is now to the knowledgable-that this is Obama's man.

After New Hampshire comes Nevada. Harris has regional support and Castro might find ethnic support there. It may be the last stand for one or both of them. The media by then may have dismissed their chances. That would create a vacuum for the remaining ethnic candidates. Booker or Patrick might fill that void to strong numbers there.

Either way the showdown becomes South Carolina. There if anywhere Messam will make a serious effort. Booker needs good numbers there or he will drop out and seek another Senate term. Harris might still be a factor. Though some are assigning the south to Biden the question remains whether southern blacks will vote for a white person while a black candidate is available. The challenge Harris presented Biden with in the first debate remains unanswered. Asking it again at the right moment could flip nearly a third of the state's votes. Patrick needs only to get more votes than Booker and Harris to remain a factor.

That brings us to super Tuesday. Harris, Castro and Klobuchar must defend their home states. If Patrick and Warren are both active which of them will win Massachusetts? The loser among them has to drop out. If it's close Sanders might win the state. (Biden has some strength in Massachusetts but most will dump him for a local.) Patrick might win Massachusetts and if he is now the only ethnic trying, some southern states as well. He could finish the day in the top 3 in states won and/or delegates earned.

Thereafter he may be in the best position to take the remaining southern states, Illinois, Michigan and some of the states that vote April 28. In a war of attrition at that point he could be the one that drops out for loss of money or strength, but if his last opponents are Bernie and Biden he has the energy to go to the end with lively rallies and endless handshaking.

Patrick might win.

 

sounds just like an obama scheme alright... he sets up trump for impeachment, gets the dems to go 'batshit crazy' with lawsuits et al to blockade american progress, all the while knowing that the 2020 dem front runners will have to be seated for the senate portion of the impeachment process AND that mconnel would delay such until super tuesday, meaning 'his' guy (clone) will be on stage all by his self... brilliant

anywho, this all shows the world that our political system is corrupt, nearly beyond repair...

whom ever wins, won't get much done while in office... that is a certainty

 

Messam dropped out. Obviously his last hope was that Tropical Storm Sebastien would hit Miramar Florida and give him a chance to do something heroic.
He never really had a chance and everyone treated him that way. This, for the moment, leaves Buttigieg as the only Mayor trying to pole vault to the top. Why was he given the nation's attention while Messam was not?

 

In what should be the last major adjustment to the race Michael Bloomberg, 77, has joined the race, returning the field to 18.
The billionaire businessman and 3-term former Mayor of New York City might have a huge impact on the race or he might flop miserably.
Bloomberg has no natural constituency in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada or South Carolina and he's not the type to shake hands in coffee shops. What he can do is flood the airwaves, demand interviews and otherwise get attention, burying fringe candidates in the dust. We could lose some very soon because of him, but he's not the obvious choice to gather votes previously assigned to Castro or Williamson.
The strange system the DNC has used this year gave obscure people with limited credentials false hope. If people like Bloomberg and Biden had joined the race early most would have been back home in local politics months ago.
The first major victim should be Yang. Who needs a rich New York businessman when you have the richest New York businessman?
Bloomberg is an Independent. Sanders was an Independent because he was so far to the left (Communist) that until recently his platform had no credibility within the Democratic Party. Bloomberg is Independent in the more common way-midway between the 2 parties. He lived as a Republican, amassing a fortune thanks to government's laissez-faire approach to business expansion. Unlike Trump he never needed the generous corporate bankruptcy laws.
As 3-term Mayor however he reflected the nanny-state policies of Democrats such as Michael Dukakis. His high taxes on soft drinks in the guise of saving lives of children gave local Democrats 2 things they wanted-higher taxes and a credible explanation that they were doing something heroic. He can make the claim that he is therefore the natural successor-to Michele Obama.
In 2016 Bloomberg was courted-by the media not the public-to join the Presidential race. He said he would run as an Independent if Sanders beat Hillary for the nomination. Pat Buchanan said Bloomberg would not win a state and if he did somehow finish first in New York he would take it from Hillary and guarantee a Trump victory either in the Electoral College or the House of Representatives. That remains an option and may happen if he shows some strength but loses the nomination.
Other possible victims of Bloomberg are Delaney and Bullock. That can happen if his campaign aims for the conservative edge of the party. Though some of us have been drowning in Bloomberg updates for 18 years, most Americans know only his top resume items. He could fool them into thinking he's moderate.
If anyone wanted to vote for Bernie only because Bernie is Jewish, they most likely will abandon Bernie for Bloomberg. That won't make much difference in the early states, but in New York a single April 28 victory in a state Bernie might win could make another candidate the big winner for the day.
My worst fear is this is literally an attempt to kill the ailing Bernie. I'm not that old, but I regard every thing people do affecting me as an attempt to lengthen or shorten my life. (I'm being murdered right now by a combination of about 6 evil people.) This makes Bernie's life shorter.

 

Sestak dropped out Sunday. Did any of the networks report it?
The DNC got what it wanted. A candidate joined the race late, was not allowed in any of the debates and drops out months before the first votes o they can't be embarrassed.
Sestak's short career in Congress made him a longshot from the start, but as people with no experience at all made it into debates and attracted voters, he was worth considering.
Bloomberg may have stolen whatever strength Sestak was earning-more likely hoping for.
This leaves Pennsylvania out of the primary race. Sestak might be considered for VP but only with a wimpy western candidate.

 

Next Bullock dropped out on Monday. This takes the competition down to 16. At this point they should use them all with an undercard debate. I dare them to tell Bloomberg he doesn't qualify.
Bullock of course was relying on hope that moderate Democrats would pick him and that mainstream candidates would prefer a Governor because Governor's know how to run a government. He's also the right age with no medical problems. Being the right age is helping no one this time. Being qualified isn't helping anyone much either.
Perhaps Bloomberg will pick up the votes he might have gotten for being moderate and Patrick the votes he might have gotten for being a Governor.
Not much happens in Montana, so we may never hear his name again.

 

In a move that could radically change the outcome in several states Kamala Harris has dropped out of the race.
This keeps her from the discomfort of campaigning in Iowa and New Hampshire in the cold.
Thia is the third dropout in 3 days. The timing will allow them to spend the holidays with their families.
This leaves Tom Steyer as the lone representative of California. He's not really one of them though, so he may have trouble winning the state. In fact he might drop out soon too to avoid the embarrassment of being the third most successful extremely rich candidate.
Harris attacked Biden on civil rights based on the fact he opposed forced integration (as opposed to desegregation). In the process she lost hope of winning votes from white people. Also the number of black people 55 and younger who attribute their success in life to attending integrated public schools is smaller than the number of white people who attribute their success in life to attending schools with only one race heavily represented.
Tulsi Gabbard's attacks on Harris might have weakened some support. Anyone wishing to vote for the prettiest woman probably defaulted to Gabbard, while those wishing to choose the bitchiest woman still ended up supporting Warren.
Warren will benefit from this, but still needs to eliminate the remaining females in the race. Even then, there is a limit to how many votes a woman can get in most states and she might not approach the limit too often.
The entry of Bloomberg represents a poker player suddenly bidding an amount equal to the net worth of most opponents, usually giving him a victory despite a weak hand. Harris was having enough trouble without him, but she doesn't have the organization to overcome a massive commercial attack. Nor did she have any hope of shaking more hands in Iowa or New Hampshire than other candidates.
Mother drew me to an important thing that could radically alter her future.
As a prosecutor, Harris knows better than any candidate whether the impeachment trial-if run according to the practices of the American judicial system-has any real hope of convicting the President. Most of us are convinced it does not. Most Democratic Senators are pretty sure it does not but intend to vote to convict regardless. She can stand almost alone in acquitting the President, with a treatise on Constitutional law to back her up. That would make her the one person reasonable people will call honest. Should it cost her her next election in 2024, imagine her as a panelist on Fox News.

 

Castro just dropped out, decreasing the field to 14. Texas is still represented though, by Marianne Williamson.
The other night at work I started thinking about Iowa-not ready to make a prediction, but to consider who might finish last.
That was easy: Williamson. She might literally get zero votes in the Iowa caucus, because it's not a secret ballot and supporting her alone or almost alone in a crowd is uncomfortable.
As I considered 14th place Castro looked like most likely to finish that low. Iowa is not his kind of state anyway. He can't match the money others are using.
In Iowa they don't count voters, only representatives of the crowd. We hope the percentages are honest, but they might round off with a minimum number of supporters in each precinct to qualify for one. as a result a man like Castro could be below the threshold and get listed as having 0 votes statewide when the real number is just less than half of one percent in his most successful precincts.
That would be humiliating, so it's smart to bail out now.

 

This is what Wikipedia says about the 2016 Iowa caucuses:
There was no ballot; instead, a unique form of debate and groupings chose delegates to county conventions supporting Hillary Clinton, Martin O'Malley, and Bernie Sanders. The Iowa Democratic Party did not release vote counts or the numbers of these delegates. Instead, they released the estimated amount of state delegates supporting each candidate.[8] The county conventions selected delegates to district and state conventions, which in turn selected the delegates to the Democratic National Convention. The delegates at the county, district and state conventions were not pledged and were allowed to change their preference, meaning that the final result of the state delegates could have been different from what was estimated at the Iowa precinct caucuses.

Delegates to the 2016 Democratic National Convention were selected at district and state conventions. The First and Second congressional districts received 8 district delegates, the Third received 7 and the Fourth received 6. These district delegates were elected at the District Conventions based on the result in each Congressional District.[9]

At the State Convention, the 15 statewide pledged delegates were elected based on the statewide results. 9 of these delegates were At-Large and 6 were Party Leaders and Elected Officials (PLEO) who were pledged based on the proportion of At-Large delegates supporting candidates. The Iowa delegation also included 8 superdelegates who were not pledged based on the result of the caucus process, which included 1 U.S. Representative and 7 Democratic National Committee members.[9]

With that in mind, Marianne Williamson's decision to drop out before she is officially listed as getting 0 votes in the whole state should surprise no one.
No one ever expected Williamson to win, to win any state, not even her native Texas, or to get serious votes anywhere, but she somehow qualified for the first 2 debates and others did not. This looks fair, but is it really fair to people who should be exposed to worthy contenders with enough time to present their case?
I posted the above to explain the plight of remote candidates, including some who have strength elsewhere but not in Iowa. Finishing below the top 10 after making any effort at all in Iowa will no doubt be humiliating for someone. Even Williamson, who might have finished last everywhere, doesn't want the embarrassment.

This drops the number of candidates to 13, the number of females to 3, the number of people too old to start a first term as President to 5, the number of unqualified candidates to 2, the number of hideously underqualified candidates to 5, the number of candidates from west of the Mississippi River to 4, the number from the Confederate states to 0 and the number of raving lunatics to...

Her departure officially leaves 2 questions.
First: who will finish last in Iowa?
Though fully qualified, Bennet has been hard to find lately and might drop out soon, unless he's hoping a single win in his home state super Tuesday can go a long way. Like the other Senators, he has an ethical question to decide regarding the impeachment trial. Dropping out soon will spare him some fallout. If he stays in he might be last.
Bloomberg might finish last because he's not spending enough time there.
Patrick might finish last because of his late start.
Anyone doing worse than any of those 3 should probably drop out after Iowa. Delaney and Gabbard are most likely to be nearer the bottom than those 3.

The bigger question, now that the south is not represented, is who will win the Confederate states. 2 candidates have something in common with a lot of southerners, and I refuse to believe most will opt for any of those to whom they can not relate. Bloomberg sees an opening down south, but I don't think he can really reach any of the south's major demographics. Bernie got about 20% and can't expect more this time. Buttigieg has a natural repellant to southern votes. I don't know why people think Biden will sweep the south. If anyone wins all the Confederate states he'll be ahead after super Tuesday and hard to catch. A divided south sends the race to the limit, and it may be decided when someone who still has a chance drops out suddenly in the later weeks.
That's almost the worst thing that could happen.

Of course it's possible that the recent murders overseas convinced Williamson she isn't ready to be Commander-in-Chief. Others may discover that about themselves soon.
Who do you trust to kill the right people and only the right people?

 

Booker dropped out today, decreasing the field to 12.
That's what they wanted all along. People can learn 12 names, dismiss half of them and make a clear decision about the rest.
I said all along Booker would leave the race early because he has to run for reelection to the Senate this year. That's the reason Rand Paul dropped out too soon in 2016, and Biden in 2008. Booker can now enjoy Martin Luther King Day and use the remaining funds for a Senate race. He should win, but may have better opponents than he expected due to the late start.
He can also objectively deal with the impeachment trial. Some of the other 4 Senators in the race might reevaluate their status now.

That leaves New Jersey out of the race. At least he didn't wait for Iowa and New Hampshire to give him fewer votes than Chris Christie got.
His votes should go to Deval Patrick. The race never was big enough for 2 black candidates. It could be that Patrick joined the race to drive Booker out. The effort Patrick makes in the next few weeks will be our clue on the subject.
Of course the massive amount of money Steyer and Bloomberg can spend is eliminating some candidates whether they drop out officially or not.
You can't get money out of politics, but some who spend their own money can get donors' money out of contention.

Would you rather have a moneybags President or a President who must spend 4 years doing the bidding of moneybags?

 

Booker was a "vote for me because I am Black" candidate.
8 year of an Obama presidency spoiled that market for him.



BTW I'd rather a moneybags Prez as opposed to a
bidding of the moneybags President if that is the choice.

 

This will probably be the last post of this thread.
With 3 days to go before Iowa, John Delaney drops out.
This saves the state of Maryland from suffering a second humiliating embarrassment in a row,
Delaney was in the race first. He was soon joined by Castro-now gone-and Gabbard (hopeless despite a valiant effort).
I picked him to finish eighth but he might have finished tenth in Iowa, ahead of only the 2 who didn't try at all.
Delaney is rich but spent none of his own money. With Steyer and Bloomberg threatening to spend so much money someone might knock them lower on the Forbes list, he'd be mocked more for that than anything else.
The media did Delaney a huge disservice by calling Biden moderate. It implied that Delaney, measurably to the right of all remaining Democrats, was just like Biden without the resume and personality. It also hurt him that they were calling Gabbard a double-agent. Whatever the truth is about her, the old-fashioned conservative Democrats (last represented in a primary by Joe Lieberman I think) were best represented by Delaney. Mow they might have to scramble to Bennet, still likely to finish ninth or tenth.
I said long ago that Biden makes Delaney superfluous, but I meant that geographically, not ideologically. Delaware and Maryland are states with no personality. There is no longer a southern appeal, nor are people from those states welcome among the northeast liberal elites. Biden is now a loner in the race and will gain nothing from Delaney's exit.
Since there are few votes to go around, and no obvious second choice, Delaney supporters probably picked a backup long ago.
Delaney is of course Vice Presidential material, just like giving Biden a second chance. Of course he can't run with Biden, but would balance either of the women, Patrick, Sanders and Buttigieg.
So we start the primaries with only 11 candidates (of 28 announced), and only 9 states.
We've got the usual suspects. Massachusettsians think they're better than anyone else. New Yorkers want to run everything. Californians want to be represented. Minnesota has a rich history of prominent statesmen and likes to be on the list. Indiana represents the everyman in this story. Colorado exists and takes up a lot of space on the map. Vermont has been trying to do something important since 1792.
Delaware hasn't done anything worthwhile since 1787.
Maryland remains the most useless of our original 13 states. They're ashamed of Thomas Johnson, Taney, Agnew, Martin O'Malley and now John Delaney.