It seems clear to me and I'm sure obvious to most. Impeached in the House and cleared in the Senate. I think what the dems are banking on is that, unlike the Bubba Clinton result, this will damage The Donald thereby giving The Avowed Socialist, The Fake Indian, Creepy Joe Biden, or maybe even "The Embodiment of Corruption" herself a good chance at claiming the crown. Hard to predict, but I'm guessing this fiasco strengthens both the lib's and the The Donald's base. I'd make The Donald about a 60% to 40% chance of winning a second term. Anybody care to prognosticate?
Yeah, I will. Once all the damning evidence becomes known to the public their support of trump is going to diminish to an all time low. This will be an instant signal to the Republican Senators that if they want to save their jobs they better part ways with trump ASAP and he will find himself out on the street on his ass.
There will be an impeachment trial in the senate...…...outcome uncertain,depends on how good a case the prosecutors present.AS WITH ALL TRIALS a lot depends on the strength of and evidence presentation.
If they use the phone call as the reason for Impeachment then it will not pass the Senate. It is just business as usual in Washington and all those Senators know it. Now if he would have said for the Ukrainians to lie about Bidens son then that would have been enough. At this point the American public is just looking on and shaking our heads at the noise.
Never Doubt The Ability of The Democratic Party to Snatch Defeat From The Jaws of Victory. Ref.: Michael Dukakis and Hillary too.
I would have guessed 70%. There's no telling what these Impeachment proceedings will do though. They could very well backfire. It could lower the chances down to 62%, or increase the chances up to 78%. But with the Democrats being in a bad position, they don't have much to lose by rolling the dice. I think what Nancy Pelosi was afraid of though is that it could do long-term damage to her Party. But the more off-the-rails radicals in her Party forced her hand.
I'm estimating a 60% chance of the Donald winning his second term. (40% probability of losing). Care to venture a guess?
With what is about to come out in the IG report? The only chance the Democrats have is if they let go of the Deep State and fully endorse Tulsi Gabbard in time. If that doesn't happen, 90% chance Trump wins. Interesting statistics to consider: - Black vote will be ~ 20% for Trump, black males will vote 30%+ Trump. - White Males will vote at 25% or less for Democrats, in 2016, only 31% of white males voted D. - Millennial voted 55% D in 2016, dropping to 46% in 2018 midterms without Trump support. - Polls show Independents support current Democrats less than they did Clinton. Independents have been voting D less and less since Obama in 08. D: 52% - 45% - 42%. I think they will vote less than 40%. - No third party Libertarian that took 9.34% of the vote in New Mexico for example. If Johnson voters voted Trump, he would have won: New mexico, Colorado, Maine, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Nevada. I see a landslide coming to be honest, we will see.
Dem's impeachment mania knocked Trump's approval rating down 10 pts over the past month, from 53% to 43%. However, in the past few days it's started to tick back up again, and it's now back up to a 47% approval rating. One would think that Dems would run out of smear pretty soon, or the public will just get sick of listening to it. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...p_administration/prez_track_oct30?fullbrowser
So far there is no tangible evidence other than the transcript of the phone call, which shows nothing. Other than that all the Dems have is, 'he said, she said'.
I've been saying this all along, 2020 depends on who the Democrats nominate. Whether or not their nominee is attractive to independents. Hillary wasn't, she lost. Independents put Trump into the White House. We know independents are not fond of Trump. 38% have a favorable view of Trump, 54% unfavorable. Question 56A. 35% of independents want Trump to run for reelection, 46% do not. Question 74. Even so, in the generic presidential vote, 26% of independents state they will vote for the Democratic candidate, 29% say Trump, 19% state it depends. It's the "It Depends," folks that I take their vote will be decided by who is the Democratic nominee. https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/zgaz948hzw/econTabReport.pdf Nominate someone attractive to the independent voter, the democrats can win in a landslide. Nominate someone as disliked or more disliked by independents, ala Hillary Clinton in 2016, a Trump win is certainly possible. Keep in mind the democratic party is still the larger of the two major parties. Trump and the GOP must win the independent vote or lose the election. The ball is in the Democrats hands, who they hand it off to will determine, in my opinion who is the winner in 2020. Independents don't care much for Trump, but at this point in time, they don't much like any of the top three Democratic front runners either. Using the very favorable vs. the very unfavorable among independents, Trump is at a minus 22, Biden minus 21, Warren minus 16 and Sanders minus 15. All under water. All disliked and unwanted by more folks than those who like and want them. Very unusual. that has happened only once in our history or at least since Gallup and Pew Research began keeping track of major party candidates favorable and unfavorable's, 2016. 2020 unless someone way back in the field breaks through, it looks like another anti election. With a lot of folks voting for the candidate they least want lose, not win, but least want to lose.
If the house comes up with an iron clad case, which they do not yet hsve despite what people here say. I think the Senate will vote to convict, whether they remove him from office? Who knows.
If the senate votes to convict, that is removal from office. It takes 2/3rds vote in the senate or currently 67 senators if all 100 senators are present and voting. That's a very difficult number to reach. Even if all 47 Democrats vote to convict, they still need 20 Republican senators to go along. I'm not convinced the Democrats can get all 47 of their senators to vote AYE for conviction. Democrat Jones, Alabama is up for reelection in 2020. Trump has a 60% approval rating in Alabama, an AYE vote certainly would doom Jones' slim chance at reelection. Then there is Manchin, West Virginia where Trump has a 61% approval. If those two vote the way the majority of people in their state want them to, they'll vote NAY. That means the democrats in reality probably need 22 GOP senators. I can come up with five, maybe eight at the most. Then you get into Republican senators representing deep red states where Trump is popular.
You are right, i was thinking the Senate could offer any punishment they wanted. I hope it goes to the Senate i am more curious what they will do than what the house does. I'd really love some Republicans to throw their hat in the ring to give Trump a run for his money.
Would be a political death sentence. There is a reason Romney was the only serious person to do so, and there are plenty of dollar bills to follow back to Ukraine to prove why.
You have three that I know of. Walsh, Weld and Sanford. All three basically unknowns to most Republicans. No challenge from any of them against Trump. 88% of republicans view Trump favorably and like him. 84% of all republicans want Trump to run for reelection. So those three are battling, if battling is the right word for around 15% of the GOP primary vote. As of now, anyway, Trump has a lock on approximately 85% of the GOP primary vote. How impeachment will affect that, that is anybody's guess. I think impeachment hardens Republican support for Trump. That is what all this impeachment talk has done in the last three or four weeks. More Republicans support Trump today than four weeks ago. Quite a lot of republicans view the Democrats attempt at impeachment as them trying to overturn an legitimate election. More or less a silent coup that isn't so quiet. This does have a very partisan look. 83% of Democrats think Trump should be impeached and removed. 83% of Republicans think he shouldn't be impeached and removed. Republicans look at this impeachment as a political vendetta against Trump for the democrats losing an election. An attempt at revenge. Democrats look at this as quest for justice for abuse of power among many other criminal acts.
i'd bet that if the faux impeachment tips the scales in the dems favor, that the 'emodiment' will toss her pantsuit into the ring (circus)... that is what this hoax is all about... retribution for
