Trump's NY re-elect numbers are brutal....

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by Statistikhengst, Oct 16, 2019.

  1. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 3, 2015
    Messages:
    50,653
    Likes Received:
    41,718
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Constant repetitive negativity just like your BLOTUS spews with 12,000+ bamboozling LIES?

    Negativity like "fake news", "crooked Hillary", "witch-hunt", etc, etc, etc, etc?
     
    Statistikhengst and Margot2 like this.
  2. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 3, 2015
    Messages:
    50,653
    Likes Received:
    41,718
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Fascinating information especially since all of this was probably polled PRIOR to the BLOTUS "officially" abandoning NY and "moving" to FL. Giving NY'er's the proverbial finger is not going to move those numbers in his favor.

    What I would like to see now is how FL shapes as the BLOTUS's "home state". I suspect this "move" was made for the purely political purpose of shoring up his support in FL while he has zero intentions of ever leaving his tawdry penthouse in Manhatten. It might also be intended as a means to escape prosecution in NY for state felonies like filing false tax returns. Perhaps all of the above.

    Going to interesting to watch the polling margins in deep blue and red states to see how much they differ and/or align to prior elections as potential signs to the eventual outcome.

    There is one other factor that the polling can't measure that I intend to investigate.

    There are people, like Michael Moore, who have an uncanny ability to accurately call elections. They have an insight into how people think, act and react to the way politicians are coming across to the electorate. That aspect has never been given enough attention IMO and we are doing ourselves no favors by ignoring it. As Sun Tzu noted it is of strategic value to know your enemy and know yourself. I am of the opinion that the Dems lost in 2016 because they did not know the BLOTUS. Now we have a great deal more information about him but we need to know everything if we are going to prevail.
     
    Margot2 likes this.
  3. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,793
    Likes Received:
    19,344
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Siena puts out state polling - generally - once a month, sometimes, every two months. They have a pretty solid reputation. Also, they release lots and lots of internals, which speaks well for a polling organisation.

    I will note that Rasmussen, one of the shittiest pollsters in the known universe, refuses to release internals. There is a reason for this: Rasmussen has a lot to hide.
     
    Derideo_Te likes this.
  4. Bluesguy

    Bluesguy Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2010
    Messages:
    153,325
    Likes Received:
    38,996
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Your weak attempts at invective rather than answer what I asked shows you understand nothing. What does it matter if he loses New York again even at a higher margin? And it is not his home state anymore.

    You also declared a Democrat candidate would win 400 EC votes. I asked which one and you dodged. So which one?

    And BTW, unlike some other boards on this one such attempts to insult other members for lack of an intellectual response will get your post deleted and a warning.
     
    Last edited: Nov 4, 2019
    Ddyad likes this.
  5. Blaster3

    Blaster3 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2018
    Messages:
    6,008
    Likes Received:
    5,302
    Trophy Points:
    113
    angry? not a chance, but thank you for putting words in my mouth.
    when you can post up a poll that actually asked an equal number of each party, then the results will be fair... to say 'the majority won't elect trump' in a poll that the majority were democrats is just pure biased bs, coming from butt hurt individuals that want to fool unwitting voters...
     
  6. Blaster3

    Blaster3 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2018
    Messages:
    6,008
    Likes Received:
    5,302
    Trophy Points:
    113
    see post #56, then get back to me WHEN you find a fair & objective poll, till then you're just spouting butthurt bs...
     
    Last edited: Nov 4, 2019
  7. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,793
    Likes Received:
    19,344
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male

    False. You asked, I answered. Had you actually read the OP for content, you would have already had the answer. And the question in your reply here is also answered handily by what I quoted from my OP: margins matter.

    Further, nothing that I wrote was an insult. It would take a true thin-skinned, perpetually angry person out there to take umbrage at what I wrote. I still recommend an English course for you with emphasis on comprehension and discernment, since you still are not getting it. And finally, your hurt feelings and lack of ability to deal with someone showing you facts is none of my business and frankly, bores me.

    I once again encourage you to read the OP for content and then learn to discern, you know, like adults do.
     
  8. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,793
    Likes Received:
    19,344
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male

    It's kind of like "Benghaaaaaaaaaaziiiiiiiii" on steroids, screamed at the top of their lungs down a very long, acoustically live rabbit hole.
     
    Derideo_Te likes this.
  9. Ddyad

    Ddyad Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 17, 2015
    Messages:
    53,268
    Likes Received:
    25,267
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Political polling is not credible. Most people have noticed.
     
  10. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 3, 2015
    Messages:
    50,653
    Likes Received:
    41,718
    Trophy Points:
    113
    :roflol:

    Ironic PROJECTION coming from a supporter of the BUTTHURT BLOTUS who can't do anything BUTT spout BS!

    Given the above you appear to not have mush grasp of the subject matter knowledge when it comes to how polls actually work even AFTER it was explained to you by the OP.

    In essence Pollsters KNOW that they are NEVER going to get an EXACT MATCH to the percentages of each party within their selected sample so they ALWAYS WEIGHT the RESPONSES to the KNOWN party representation.
     
    Last edited: Nov 4, 2019
  11. Ddyad

    Ddyad Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 17, 2015
    Messages:
    53,268
    Likes Received:
    25,267
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Political pollsters know their polling is unreliable.

    “The first evidence of the party’s polling blind spot surfaced in a governor’s race, the 2015 contest in Kentucky. Both public and private polls going into the election showed Democrat Jack Conway and Republican Matt Bevin running neck-and-neck — Conway had a 3-point lead in the final RealClearPolitics average — but Bevin won by a comfortable, 9-point margin.” …

    “We projected Clinton to lose Ohio by 200,000 votes,” said Hagner, “and she lost by 450,000.”
    Democrats’ polling problems might not only be voters hiding their intentions from pollsters — some voters may have been hiding altogether.

    That bias against responding covers a number of different elements, including geography. One top Democratic strategist who requested anonymity to discuss candidly what went wrong with the 2016 polls pointed to difficulty in reaching voters in more rural districts because of spotty cellphone service.

    The same strategist added that many of these voters also may choose not to participate in polls “because they don’t like the establishment and they don’t want to take a survey.”
    POLITICO, Democrats burned by polling blind spot, By STEVEN SHEPARD 03/27/17.
    http://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/democrats-trump-polling-236560
     
  12. Bluesguy

    Bluesguy Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2010
    Messages:
    153,325
    Likes Received:
    38,996
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    I have read it and what happens in New York is not what happens in other states and of course in contrast his support in red states will increase. The rest of the country doesn't care what New York does and if he loses more votes in New York it will not mean fewer EC votes.

    And one more time with the "you need an English course.........." and you'll get reported. The mods try to keep the discourse about the petty juvenile level around here and is quite boring.
     
    Last edited: Nov 4, 2019
  13. ArmySoldier

    ArmySoldier Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2014
    Messages:
    32,222
    Likes Received:
    12,253
    Trophy Points:
    113
    When on earth did anyone think Trump would win New York to begin with? It's a VERY liberal state with strict gun laws that voters supported. Did you think they would just turn Red?
     
  14. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,793
    Likes Received:
    19,344
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    You missed the point. It is clearly stated within the OP. All you have to do is to read it.
     
    Derideo_Te likes this.
  15. ArmySoldier

    ArmySoldier Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2014
    Messages:
    32,222
    Likes Received:
    12,253
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Ok...if I'm missing something let me know because no one expects Trump to win New York...

    What other point is there?

    Are you saying he's losing Alabama now too? lol
     
  16. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,793
    Likes Received:
    19,344
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    No, that is not what I wrote. I see no more reason to keep re-quoting the core of the OP. One expects Conservatives to be able to read every bit as well as Liberals. If you really wanted to know what the message was, you would have read it. But out of kindness I will give you a hint. The two sentences that clearly explain the core of the OP start with "The purpose of this OP..." and "The point is...", respectively. Whether or not you can understand the meaning of those sentences is your business, not mine.
     
    Derideo_Te likes this.
  17. Borat

    Borat Banned

    Joined:
    May 18, 2011
    Messages:
    23,909
    Likes Received:
    9,859
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Why even bother... The libs were just as aroused by these meaningless polls all the way till their devastating landslide defeat in 2016 and they haven't learned a thing.

    The polls from swing states bode extremely well for Trump and that is now, before he even started campaigning, in the middle of the Ukraine hoax and impeachment nonsense. Once he is found not guilty and starts campaigning ($1 billion is a lot of money to campaign with) his numbers will have nowhere to go but through the roof.

    Suffice it to say that less than a year before the election day the Dem establishment is running around with their hair on fire, shopping for a candidate who is both not insane and not senile. No luck so far :D LOL
     
    Last edited: Nov 5, 2019
    Blaster3 and ArmySoldier like this.
  18. Blaster3

    Blaster3 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2018
    Messages:
    6,008
    Likes Received:
    5,302
    Trophy Points:
    113
    we conservatives read quite well, and we see your polls are biased because 48% of the people polled were democrats, which i pointed out to you very early on in this thread, yet you continue with the bs... typical of your kind
     
    Borat likes this.
  19. Spim

    Spim Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Nov 11, 2016
    Messages:
    7,664
    Likes Received:
    6,183
    Trophy Points:
    113
    ohhh, that was a good one, nice.

    I'm lucky enough to live (moved to) a state that has no state tax, so SALT limitations don't bother me.

    It seems to me that if they are upset about the 10K threshold, that they should be angry at the state that is charging them more than 10K, but that's me. Honestly I didn't like the 10K threshold,it should have been 1K, no reason for people to not pay their fair share, I thought that's what they wanted.
     
    Last edited: Nov 5, 2019
    vman12 likes this.
  20. gamewell45

    gamewell45 Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2011
    Messages:
    24,711
    Likes Received:
    3,547
    Trophy Points:
    113
    It's important to remember that the only poll that is truly accurate is the one conducted on election day! All others are for the most part superfluous although some people maintain that they are useful for strategy purposes.
     
    Last edited: Nov 5, 2019
    gorfias likes this.
  21. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    May 15, 2017
    Messages:
    34,619
    Likes Received:
    11,200
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Historically it's very unusual (maybe even unprecedented) for a Presidential candidate to get such little support in his home state. (Maybe even more remarkable for such a Presidential candidate to be able to win the national election, nonetheless)

    There have even been several elections in US history where the only state a Presidential candidate got electoral votes from was his home state.
     
    Last edited: Nov 5, 2019
  22. vman12

    vman12 Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2015
    Messages:
    66,645
    Likes Received:
    46,476
    Trophy Points:
    113
    When they say "people should pay their fair share", the party of tolerance actually means everyone besides them.
     
    Spim likes this.
  23. Spim

    Spim Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Nov 11, 2016
    Messages:
    7,664
    Likes Received:
    6,183
    Trophy Points:
    113
    the outrage over that baffled me quite a bit to be honest, they assumed that blue states were being singled out, and IMO it was simply the fact that blue states tend to hammer their residents with extra taxes and keep getting voted in. Not sure why all of a sudden they would be against paying their share of the federal tax burden. Unless I could find another possibility... oh ya, if its trumps idea is a bad idea.
     
    vman12 likes this.
  24. vman12

    vman12 Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2015
    Messages:
    66,645
    Likes Received:
    46,476
    Trophy Points:
    113
    It rhymes with "schmipocracy".
     
  25. Spim

    Spim Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Nov 11, 2016
    Messages:
    7,664
    Likes Received:
    6,183
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Admittedly, I've only had one cup of covfefe, but i'm drawing a blank on that one hahaha.

    I've only visited NY once to take a cruise out of the port and found it to be loud, crowded, expensive and not at all my cup-o-tea. I have a boatload of NY customers and the city peeps I don't generally like their personality but they do get stuff done (very much like trump), I do like the personality of those that came from upstate, generally quite nice.
     
    Last edited: Nov 5, 2019

Share This Page