The newest voter registration stats for California, also by CD, are enlightening

If you take time to read this thread, you will find that there is something for everyone in it.

For the first time in the history of the great state of California, the current voter registration statistics show that the D-vs-R edge has gone over +20%. Also, for the first time, there are almost 9 million registered Democrats in California.

You can see the most current VR stats for all states (generally going back about 10 years in history) HERE.

In large election cycles (mid-terms, presidential election years), California publishes a 154-day, a 60-day and a 15-day report before primary and general elections. Since the 2020 primary is on March 4th, 2020, the 154 day (essentially, the 5-month) report came out reflecting all VR up to October 1, 2019. It was published online November 1, 2019.

Here the current stats for CA:



So, from the 154-day report before the 2016 presidential primaries and the 154-day report before the 2020 presidential primaries, the D-margin in VR has gone up exactly 5%, from D+15.48% to D+20.48%. CA is not a D-majority state in VR, but rather, a D-high-plurality state. If you go to the link above and check out the CA stats back to 2004, you will see that the D-topline has remained constant, at between 43-44% pretty much the entire way. What has changed drastically has been the R-topline, which was at 34.70% in 2004 (and at the time, the D-VR-margin was only +8.30%), it is now at 23.58%. So, California has gone from a state with 1/3 of voters being Republican to a state with less then 1/4 of voters being Republican, and that has major ramifications in all down-ballot races, to be sure.

Here a quick timeline and VR-margins for CA:

November, 2004: D +8.30 (Kerry won the state in 2004 by +10)
November, 2008: D +13.03 (Obama won the state by +24)
November, 2010: D +13.06 (R-wave in the midterm elections)
November 2012: D +14.30 (Obama won the state by +23)
November 2014: D +15.18 (R-wave, somewhat smaller than 2010)
November 2016: D +18.92 (Clinton won the state by +30)
November 2018: D +19.41 (the Ds flip 7 CDs in the state, statewide average = D +33.13)
right now, November 2019: D +20.48

I suspect that, if those trends continue, by election day 2020, it will be at least D +21, maybe even D +22. Wait and see.

Now, for those who want to poo-poo this, who say "who cares, California is blue, no one expects Trump to win California", that is not the point.

The point is that just 24 years ago, the congressional delegation from California was practically tied, D 27 / R 25, D +2. So, in 24 years time, the R-HOR-congressional delegation has been whittled down, or better put, decimated, from 25 to: 7. And worse yet, of those 7 R-retentions, 4 were won by single-digit margins, 3 of them by lean single-digit margins. Looking at the electoral stats and the current VR stats for each California district, the Rs can only really count on 4 seats to stay red after 2020: CA-01, CA-04, CA-08 and CA-23. CA-22, CA-42 and CA-50 are going to be hotly contested.

On the D-side in 2018, there were 39 retentions. The leanest D-retention in 2018 started at +10 (landslide margin) and from there went up to as high as +80, into astronomical territory. Not one single of these 39 seats is going to be seriously contested in 2020, guaranteed. But of the 7 D-pickups (CA-10, CA-21, CA-25, CA-39, CA-45, CA-48 and CA-49), 4 of them are sure to be hotly contested.

In order to get a good feeling for all of this, I input the VR data for all 7 current R-seats in California, plus the 7 seats that were flipped. To that, I added the D-retentions from 2018 that were between +10 and +18 and also, just for comparative purposes, 4 seats from the Democratic leadership in Congress (Pelosi in CA-12, Swallwell in CA-18, Schiff in CA-28 and Lieu in CA-33). I put them all in a huge table and also included the winning margins from 2018, 2016, 2014 and 2012. You can see all of this HERE.

When you compare these 23 CDs as they stand today to the 154-day report before the 2016 primary elections, you will see that the voter registration margins all, without exception, showed improvement for the Democrats and erosion for the Republicans. When you compare CA-08 only to 2018, there is a minimal improvement, but that's it.

That being said, out of this data are some important things to discern.

1.) If there is going to be a GOP comeback in any of the D-pickups from 2018, then it will likely be with David Valadao in CA-21. See if you can read the data and figure out why:



David Valadao is the ONLY Republican in California who succeeded in getting elected by nice landslide margins in a CD that had a large D-plurality in registration. This is a real tribute to his grit and personal charisma. With those margins, even if he had always gotten 100% of the R vote and 100% of the unafilliated voters, the only way he could have gotten to a circa +16% margin in such a CD would be if some Democrats were also willing to vote for him. Now, TJ Cox won this CD, but he just barely pulled it over the line. Valadao announced early that he wants a rematch and his fundraising is going well, so in spite of the usual incumbent advantage, seeing that the voter registration dynamics of this CD have barely moved, it's my opinion that if there is a CD in the middle of what looks like yet another blue wave for Team Red to reclaim, it's probably going to be CA-21.

2.) With Katie Hill's (D) forced resignation in CA-25 (which is currently vacant) you would think that this would be an easy re-claim for the Republicans, but the VR data and the constellation of declared R-candidates tell me otherwise:



In 2016, this CD was essentially tied in VR, but before the 2018 midterms, the Ds took a +4.3% advantage, which has now grown to +6 for team blue. That 5 point shift from 2016 to 2018 was enough to allow for a margin shift of 14 points to the Left in 2018. That is going to be harder to beat than what Valadao is facing in CA-21. Plus, a convicted felon, namely, coffee-boy George Papadopolous, has declared his candidacy for CA-25. I doubt he will win the primary, but his candidacy will dirty up the primary race to be sure and give the Ds plenty of ammunition. And please note that as always with plurality registration advantages instead of towering majority registration advantages, one is reliant on the Independent voters to get over the top.

3.) This CD will be on everyone's radar in 2020:



Duncan Hunter AND his wife are under indictment for financial crimes. His wins went from +42 in 2014 to just over +3 in 2018, and that over a young man of palestinian descent, whose grandfather was one of the murderers at the 1972 Munich Olympics. Of course, Ammar Campa-Najjar is not responsible for the horrible deeds his grandfather committed (he was not even born when it happened), but the Republicans sure campaigned as if he was a terrorist. It didn't work, but Hunter just barely retained his seat. Now, things have gotten so bad that the CA-GOP refuses to endorse Hunter for 2020 and Darrell Issa (formerly from CA-48 and then the richest man in Congress) is now going to primary him. This also does not sit well, due to the carpetbagging effect. Add to this that the R-VR margin in CA-50 has been more than cut in half since 2016, add lots of money and media to this event, and with Ammar Campa-Najjar back in the picture, it is more than possible that CA-50, which has been in Republican hands since 2003, may very well flip. We saw wilder things happen in 2018. Remember OK-05?

Here again the LINK to the new table, take a look for yourself and see how the voter registration stats in California are making themselves wide and broad through all 53 congressional districts. I only mentioned the three most obvious examples of the 17 or so worth delving into, so feel free to add to the conversation.

In spite of a huge hyper-advantage for the Ds in this state, there is still room to go, and with a veritable Elephant-Texodus going on in the nation's second biggest state, the RNC is going to have to decide where to perform triage, and where not.

And on top of that is the really unpredictable variable of what will happen if California suceeds in keeping Trump's name off the ballot in 2020 since they now have a law that requires presidential candidates (and other high offices) to release their tax returns. If this happens and the R-vote, which is already diminished, is really depressed during the primaries, then this could have some really wild effect on the winners of the jungle primary in California. Remember, in CA, everyone is on one ballot for each office - it's not split by party. So, fun times are ahead, to say the least.

Enjoy the links. I will be fleshing out this information throughout 2020.

-Stat

 

California Democrats legalized vote harvesting. What you are seeing is the vote harvesting operations. They collect voter registrations, fill them out, collect the ballots, fill them out, and suddenly the globalist running the operation have total control of who gets elected up and down the entire California ballot.

 

Don't forget that as late as the mid-90s, California voters approved a measure in a state-wide referendum denying free emergency medical care to illegal immigrants.
The measure of course was overturned by the state courts.

Today more than half of the kids in the state are Latino, and the attitude today is pretty much "What? You want to deport my parents?!"

 

Uhm, no.

And ballot "harvesting" as you describe it has nothing to do with actual voter registration.

Perhaps read the OP for content next time.

 

35 or 25 years ago the politics in Washington and Oregon looked very different as well. I have lived in Oregon my whole life. It was a state where Vic Ateyah might be elected governor, or one where we were represented by Mark Hatfield Bob Packwood, and Gordan Smith as senators, and as many GOP delegates as Dems. . Now we have only Greg Walden to represent the GOP in our entire congressional delegation from Oregon, and he is retiring.

We used to have split party control over our legislature and periodic swings in control. Now Our governor and both house of the legislature are solidly Democratic (in a 30 member senate its an 18-12 split with continuous control since 2006. . In the House its a the same since 2012m only now we have a supermajority of 60% of all seats in democratic control) Only our secretary of state is GOP with every other office up for election in the executive branch listed here,
Executive branch[edit]

• Governor of Oregon Dem
• Oregon Secretary of State Rep.
• Oregon State Treasurer Dem
• Oregon Commissioner of Labor and Industries Dem
• Oregon Superintendent of Public Instruction Dem
• Oregon Attorney General Dem

, and the State GOP legislators have to run and hide to deny a quorum to have any voice at all.https://www.oregonlive.com/politics...no-show-delays-vote-on-education-funding.html

 

Ok...so why do you think that there has been such a change?

 

Where else in America can you freely urinate and deficate in the streets all while awaiting to receive your free government sponsored syringe full of dope, but God forbid you use a plastic straw.

 

Meanwhile they've made nunchucks a felony. Insane.

There are vagrant druggies openly shooting up heroine in the BART corridors as passengers walk by on their daily commute, but meanwhile they're more concerned about nunchucks that may be under someone's bed.

I don't think outsiders fully understand the extent of the insanity that's going on.

 

Thank you for posing that question. I would suppose that no one person has the complete answer to that, but when you look at the geography, topography and population density of our great Republic, I would submit to you that discernable patterns appear.

It would be a great topic for a thread only on this subject, I would say: where liberalism tends to flourish, vis-a-vis where Conservatism tends to flourish.

 

Where else in America can an anonymous person on a public forum have the gall to write such meaningless bullshit about a state of circa 40 MILLION people, a state that he or she probably doesn't even know, just because some whacked-out RWNJ fruitloops personalities on TeeVee (like: Limbaugh, FOX) say such stupid and uneducated stuff??

G-d bless America for allowing people to just be as dumb as boxes of rocks and yet be so happy, like pigs in the mud. Amen.

 

I don't think these pics are from any right wing TV show. This is San Francisco on a beautiful sunshiny day. Notice the 3rd pic. It's actually a poop map.


P.S. I have spent much time in CA, particularly Coronado over the past 38 years. I've personally witness CA go from a vacationer's dream destination to a drug infested public bathroom homeless encampment with once extinct 3rd World diseases.


HEALTH
Medieval Diseases Are Infecting California’s Homeless
Typhus, tuberculosis, and other illnesses are spreading quickly through camps and shelters.

ANNA GORMANKAISER HEALTH NEWSMARCH 8, 2019

P.S.S. CA, 1 of 3 states in the country with a decreasing population, is on the verge of losing a Congressional seat and it's not the homeless street junkie that is leaving.

 

All thanks to Republican/Libertarian Fiscal Malfeasance policies over the past 2 decades that have effectively DEPRIVED 66% of the population of ever achieving the American Dream of owning a home.

 

First, showing pics of mens' butts is probably not the way to go, here. In fact, nudity cannot be displayed in PF.

Second, the P.S.S is not true. In fact, the statement is a blatant lie told often in crazy-assed right-wing circles that have about as much credibility as the flat-earthers out there. California's population is in no way decreasing. It has easily gone over 40 million in 2019 and is on track for 41 million in 2020, far, far, far outpacing the population of Texas, the second most populous state in our fine Republic. California's population growth-rate is not the fastest in the US, it is only the 21st fastest growing state, but this also, of course, means that 29 other states (most of them red-states, btw) are growing in population even slower than CA. So, no, CA is not going to lose a congressional district. Next time, use facts. Facts are very helpful.

 

I have had the pleasure and displeasure of visiting CA a lot over the years and like many places, Portland, Oregon comes to mind, liberal lawmakers have caused these places to suffer extraordinarily. They will continue to do so unless control is wrested away from these people and sanity is restored.

CA used to be one of my favorite places to fly into and to spend time in. Now, I avoid it at all costs. Blame the Democrats in charge, they are at fault.

https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/diarrhea-poured-on-woman-hollywood-homeless-564585101.html

 

It is Total BS for anybody to be talking about Cali being a "Liberal Haven"...

Among CA's 52-Member House Delegation (1 seat vacant) there are STILL...

..7 GOP Members...

Including Certifiable Tinfoil Hat Looney Tunes Like Kevin McCarthy and Devin Nunes...

If Cali was TRULY a "Liberal Haven", there would be ZERO GOP Members in their House Delegation...

Yet another RW "Talking Point" totally destroyed...

You're Welcome...

 

How so?

 

I would look at the demographics by age group. There may be some statistics there that will really surprise you.
Let's just say the area has taken in a lot of illegal immigration over the last few decades, and they've had lots of children. Obviously that's had a substantial effect on poverty/crime rates and, I think, level of social trust.

i.e. why should anyone be the least bit surprised things are looking more like Mexico?

The Democrats in that state knew the only way they could win power was by flooding the area with illegal immigrants. Ultimately creating a permanent underclass so they could buy votes. And of course the children of undocumented immigrants are not going to vote for any party that is against illegal immigration.

The change in politics has, unfortunately, correlated to the change in ethnic demographics, and there's been a huge huge change over just the last 30 years, within the timespan of a single generation.
Likely very soon, the Hispanics are going to be running the show, and they will kick the old party Democrats out. Will be interesting to see how things run then.
Probably a lot like Mexico, I would guess.

 

Let me see. Believe some internet poster or believe the Sacramento Bee? Tough decision, but even though you have some form of the word statistic as your username I'm going with the newspaper that's published in the capital of the state that we are speaking of.
NO SURPRISE: Sh**hole California on Track to Lose Congressional Seat After Census

May 13, 2019 Admin 139 Comments


A marked difference with the breakneck pace of growth the state experienced in the 20th century…

(Emily Cadei, The Sacramento Bee) California’s population is growing more slowly than expected, making it increasingly likely it will lose at least one congressional seat in 2020 — and maybe more.

“Right now, the current numbers that are coming in look very much like California is on track to lose a seat,” Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) Research Fellow Eric McGhee told The Sacramento Bee.

 

Early on, OR got a lot of defections from CA who happened to be very loyal Democrats. They ruined OR.

I moved away from CA this past year to Idaho which is controlled by Republicans. Me and my son are republicans and fit right in. A good pal of mine moved from CA to Or and he was a loyal Republican. He died this past year so won't vote again. Can we still count him as living and have him vote as Democrats are so fond of doing? He will definitely want to vote Republican if he can get counted.

 

The Sacramento Bee LOL LOL LOL

LOL LOL LOL

But by the way, the very first sentence you quoted literally destroyed your own first argument. You indicated that CA's population was declining. That was an out and out untruth. Even the first sentence of the article admits that CA's population is still -*gasp*- "growing". For those who don't know, "growing" and "declining" are opposites of each other. Furthermore, I myself also very specifically pointed out that CA's population is growing slower than the national average, but it is the 21st state out of 51 (including DC), which means that 31 other "states" are lagging behind CA and only 20 are ahead of it. So, no, once again, for those who actually use their brains and are willing to discern, CA is NOT on track to lose a congressional district. But even were it to lose one CD, which one of the 7 CDs barely won by the last remaining Republicans in the CA HOR delegation will be swallowed up? So, beware what you ask for: you may just get it.

LOL LOL

After the 2010 census, California was 12% of the US population and had 53 CDs.
Right now, California is - wait for it, wait for it ---- 12% of the US population.

 

I can tell that basic math skills aren't a strong point for you either.

 

If this is all that you have to offer, then debate with you is not possible.

Being the 21st of 51 states in terms of population growth puts CA very close to the upper third of states with population growth. Again, in case you didn't get it, that means that 30 other states, plus DC, had LESS population growth than CA itself.

Once you have figured that one out, you can feel free to try to insult me over math. LOL.

I mean, this is just plain old sad.

 

Flatlined middle class income while costs have increased.

 

There goes another rightwinger regurgitating debunked disinformation without any credible substantiation whatsoever.

 

I've been there several times, San Diego & Oceanside, LA, Sac, San Jose, San Fran, Redding, and others. I Love the coast (all of it) and in particular the northern sections, quite beautiful. As a tourist, quite honestly, I've never really seen the seedier side of any of these area's, so my trips have always been enjoyable, very much so. Expensive (especially gas) but quite enjoyable.

Lately my travels have focused more on Canada and Europe because i've seen quite a bit of the US and it was just time to see some other places. There is nothing in particular that would cause me to skip a trip back to California to be honest. Portland is one specifically that WAS on my list but isn't any more, and that's due to the Antifa stuff going on, when you have 1000 options, no reason to go somewhere that has had bad publicity. Which is a shame because Oregon looks amazing in general. Even if I went there I'd just fly into portland and get out of the city and into the wilderness quickly.