CDC Warns It Expects Coronavirus to Spread in U.S

Discussion in 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) News' started by s002wjh, Feb 25, 2020.

PF does not allow misinformation. However, please note that posts could occasionally contain content in violation of our policies prior to our staff intervening. We urge you to seek reliable alternate sources to verify information you read in this forum.

  1. s002wjh

    s002wjh Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 28, 2011
    Messages:
    4,210
    Likes Received:
    641
    Trophy Points:
    113
    https://news.yahoo.com/trump-problem-coronavirus-threatens-u-131814847.html

     
    Last edited: Feb 27, 2020
    fiddlerdave likes this.
  2. JakeStarkey

    JakeStarkey Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 4, 2016
    Messages:
    25,747
    Likes Received:
    9,526
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Your fallacy of false equivalency is noted (clinical attacks vs. mortality rates) and discarded. Don't make the same error again, please.
     
  3. JakeStarkey

    JakeStarkey Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 4, 2016
    Messages:
    25,747
    Likes Received:
    9,526
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Trump is courting death.

    Some on the right endorse Trump's authoritarian concept to falsify the issue and court death than doing what is necessary to protect the people.
     
    alexa and fiddlerdave like this.
  4. Josephwalker

    Josephwalker Banned

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2016
    Messages:
    19,954
    Likes Received:
    10,174
    Trophy Points:
    113
    The terms are interchangeable depending on context and in this context they mean death rate which is comparable to the flu.
    "Attack rate, in epidemiology, the proportion of people who become ill with (or who die from) a disease in a population initially free of the disease."

    This new virus is a yawn compared to the flu.

    "During a typical year in the United States, 30,000 to 50,000 persons die as a result of influenza viral infection."
    Flu Pandemic Morbidity / Mortality - GlobalSecurity.org
     
    Last edited: Feb 27, 2020
    Ddyad likes this.
  5. 557

    557 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 7, 2018
    Messages:
    17,373
    Likes Received:
    9,807
    Trophy Points:
    113
    We will soon know if China is being honest by observing what happens in other countries.

    Dormant in winter? Where did you hear that nonsense?

    A good share of tests for the virus are coming back as false negatives. It’s quite possible that many of these “reinfections” are not actually reinfections but appear to be because of false negative test results. We just don’t know yet.




    That’s common sense. If facilities and staff are short, that’s how it’s going to have to be.



    You think whatever country (and I don’t think it’s likely) creates a vaccine should let it’s own people die and ship vaccine to others?


    I watched about half of Trump’s press conference from yesterday but didn’t see Pence rag on Iran yet. Maybe it’s towards the end. It will be bad in countries like Iran. I guess it’s pretty bad in Italy compared to other European countries. We will certainly see what countries really have good healthcare.




    I don’t think we should be too sanguine about a vaccine. People have been working on this and so far all we have is the flu shot that is on average only about 45% effective. And this is on viruses we’ve been dealing with for years, not one like this with “behaviors” we don’t even have historical data on, let alone understand completely. This is an interesting read if you are into the nuts and bolts of the complexity of the vaccine issue.
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6614380/#__ffn_sectitle


    At this point a lot of these decisions are left to states and municipalities in the US. Law is going to vary by your location.



    It makes a difference to me! :)




    I have the same information you have. No doctor or scientist can answer the questions I have. We just don’t have the information yet. Eventually we will know more, but all anyone can do now is gather information from all sources and vet it by comparing it to empirical data on other similar viruses, etc.

    Another important question with no good answer is the complete zoonotic component of covid-19. Are intermediate hosts responsible for cases with no known contact with human carriers? Will different host species nullify much of our quarantine efforts going forward, especially in areas and cultures where human/animal contact is necessary for survival?


    Good call on getting enough sleep! Unfortunately for me this is the time of year I don’t get to sleep much. :)
     
    fiddlerdave likes this.
  6. JakeStarkey

    JakeStarkey Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 4, 2016
    Messages:
    25,747
    Likes Received:
    9,526
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Your context is not existent. The flu has a 1/1000th mortality rate, the Covid-19 ranges from 2 to 16%.

    Please tell the real facts and the real context. If this goes south on us, these numbers are going to change drastically:

    [​IMG]
     
  7. fiddlerdave

    fiddlerdave Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    19,083
    Likes Received:
    2,706
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Listening to Trump speeches and tweets, it's going to see of Trump will be any more honest than the Chinese!

    We can see in his frustration right on the stage over the statements of scientists over the spread and that a "vaccine is almost ready" while the Scientists say that vaccines are a one to one and a half years away! (Which could optimist too!)

    The lies never stop, and the paid propaganda being poured into the internet forums is on full is speed! Watch for Pence's new status will include muzzling news from government sources very soon "for the good of America!"
     
  8. TOG 6

    TOG 6 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 23, 2015
    Messages:
    47,848
    Likes Received:
    19,638
    Trophy Points:
    113
    ^^^^
    Liberals, never letting a crisis go to waste.
     
  9. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2008
    Messages:
    18,965
    Likes Received:
    3,421
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Female

    Very true and I am noticing people are getting concerned. Italy for instance currently has deaths at 3%....but given the short time it has had the virus that is very high. It suggests that in the next two weeks we could see a big rise. That is one of the problems in working out the percentage. You need to compare them with the people who got it at the same time. Not necessarily easy with how things are produced on line. I saw an estimate of Iran being 5% at the moment.

    I don't know what I said that made you think that but of course I was meaning if it goes away in Summer. There does not seem to be cases in Africa and people are keeping their fingers crossed and hoping that is the reason.

    Yes, I have heard that as well. However with those who have been treated and passed the tests it may well be a return. Apparently China is now keeping people in isolation 14 days after they have got better.

    It is evidence of the gravity of the situation. It also would require refusing help to those who need it most - and who very well might recover if they received it.

    What exactly did I say which made you think that?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

    Trump's claim that a vaccine may just be available to those who can afford it is sick. I later saw someone discuss this today and he pointed out that the people who are creating the vaccine, contrary to what Trump says, are doing this on public funds. The US of course is not the only place creating a vaccine but any concept of keeping it for the richer nations, and this is what that guy said and I agree with, is totally unacceptable both from the viewpoint of destroying the disease and from that of humanity.


    I have no idea why I said Pence. It was Pompeo. I did put in another post to make that clear.

    I accept we cannot know until it is done but that is the best chance we have. One of the people in the US is creating a virus in a new way which could be available before next winter. While it need not be the only thing worked on it would be silly not to try. Even if the death rate is only 5% with its infectious rate and 15-20% needing hospital care which goes on for 2 or three weeks - usually after they have been sick for about two weeks, if we do not find a vaccine or an innovocative way of dealing it, assuming it is seasonal, winter will feel like culling time.

    Yep because Trump got rid of ll the people who were there to deal with such an emergency. Given that he is also not giving 'sanctuary cities' their money some people in the US could suffer greatly....and unless you change your way of working and give all those who need it free medical help in respect of this, you will see a much bigger death toll - helping all is something you would all benefit from.



    I don't understand. It will make no difference whether people use state of private insurance. If hospitals are overwhelmed they will not be able to give everyone help. As I said fee paying ones will likely increase their fees and others make other decisions.You are not private or getting free medical help? Who ever you get it from will not be overwhelmed so you will be OK.? What is your position?


    Some things we do not know the exact answer to. However there is a lot of information out there. People in the US who believe this is a walk over or nothing to be concerned about for instance are in for a shock. How bad it is going to get we do not know but we do know that it is going to be bad at least for one year. People from Africa and South Asia are already becoming climate refugees due to either too much or too little water. We do not need this at this time.
    This seems a minor point. China has banned the sales which led to the virus and I think people generally receive help where they are - sometimes as we have seen asking their own countries to come and get them and sometimes being successful. I would certainly hope not many people would think of refusing help because you are not from their country....but then if the UK is considering letting those die they deem least likely to live and hence the ones most needing medical care rather than doing a china and getting some hospitals made in a week, humanity may be being withdrawn anyway.

    America's big problem is apparently being a country but having according to you no overall policy to help all of your people.
     
  10. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2008
    Messages:
    18,965
    Likes Received:
    3,421
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Female
    I have a feeling that could be debated! The UK has appeared to be quite good so far. I have been pleasantly surprised..so far. I of course heard Trump saying how you were the greatest but if I remember correctly your medical services are about the worst in the developed world -certainly on outcomes. Further I understand you have made absolutely no preparations so how you think of yourself as the best prepared is curious. Third according to another poster you are not even going to have some overall strategy, some way for helping all American's it will be left State to State - again no preparation.
     
  11. JakeStarkey

    JakeStarkey Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 4, 2016
    Messages:
    25,747
    Likes Received:
    9,526
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Trump and Pence, if they can handle this as the chief executives in preparing for and fighting off COVID-19, should get kudos.

    If not, the political ax is the only possible punishment for them.
     
  12. fiddlerdave

    fiddlerdave Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    19,083
    Likes Received:
    2,706
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Oh, he will say Obama and the Democrats did it to ruin his golf game! But we can be sure his buddies will have the first vaccines!
     
  13. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2008
    Messages:
    18,965
    Likes Received:
    3,421
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Female
    Are people aware that a 62 year old man has tested positive to Coronavirus in California. Apparently it took forever to get him the test while he was wandering round this hospital and the next and they do not know who he got it from.....

    an interesting thing about the % of those dying. According to an expert on Democracy Now 'Pence is not a medical expert: Is the Trump Admin ready to stop a US Coronavirus'

    the number of people dying is 2-4% and the Number of people who died from the Spanish Flue was less than 2%. Ordinary flue is 0.1 to 0.01% fatal.

    something to think about.
     
    Last edited: Feb 27, 2020
  14. NMNeil

    NMNeil Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2015
    Messages:
    3,043
    Likes Received:
    919
    Trophy Points:
    113
  15. 557

    557 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 7, 2018
    Messages:
    17,373
    Likes Received:
    9,807
    Trophy Points:
    113

    Good point. We really will have no idea of death rates until it’s all over and we have an idea of how many people were infected but remained asymptomatic.



    Ok. You said winter and meant summer. I wondered, but with all the crazy talk going on you never know....no worries we agree on that point then.



    I’m going to have to do some research on the false negatives and see if they are making any progress in that area.



    Between civilian medical and military/national guard in the US I’m pretty confident everyone will get the treatment they need here.


    Your comment about the US holding the world to ransom.

    I’d like to see the quote where Trump said that. The US has a long history of providing medical assistance and vaccines to needy countries. That isn’t going to stop because Trump is president.




    Ok.



    I would love to be wrong. but I don’t see a vaccine happening soon. When one is available I predict it will be about as effective as current influenza vaccines.


    No. Because it’s the way our country is set up. We give power and control at the state and local level, not just to the federal government. It has nothing to do with Trump.




    I’m one of many Americans who years ago decided to be proactive and exhibit personal responsibility in this area of life. I live a very healthy lifestyle and have prepared for situations like this possible pandemic. As I said earlier, I can live in isolation basically indefinitely if I want to avoid exposure.

    If I contract C-19 I have the ability to self treat except in the most extreme cases requiring ICU care for heart/lung/other organ failure. I have a network of like-minded friends/family that run the gamut from MD’s, pharmacists, nurses, EMT’s, veterinarians, medical supply manufacturing workers, and veterinary drug suppliers.

    I am confident in my general health and ability to recover if infected. Also, I’m not afraid to die so I’m confident my decisions will be rational and not emotionally driven. Letting emotion drive decision making usually doesn’t end well.


    There is a lot of information, that is true. But much is too newly gathered to be able to depend entirely on.

    There is no good time for something like this. I hope it doesn’t turn out as badly as some expect, but I hope we wake up and learn some lessons from it.


    The zoonotic aspect is not well understood. Other coronaviruses have used intermediate non human hosts. There is no reason to think this one won’t. That matters in states where livestock or wild animals outnumber people and people’s livelihood and the country’s food supply depend on human/animal interaction. I’m not saying it will happen, I’m saying it can. And people trying to figure out where new cases are coming from without a human contact link dang well better consider it.

    Emergency medical and first responders already make decisions on who gets treatment and who doesn’t. There is no avoiding it in some situations. I really don’t think we will see that happening in the Western Civilized countries. Is China or Iran letting people die without treatment? Hard to say.

    A neighbor who is also my main veterinarian has a son who has just finished training in this specialty (chem and biological containment) in the Army National Guard. I have no doubt if civilian medical facilities are filled they will be able to respond just as fast as the Chinese with facilities etc. In this area the Trump presidency has definitely been a positive influence. Resources and morale have definitely improved under Trump.

    I never said we didn’t have policy or plans. We do. On at least three levels—federal, state, and local. There are some disadvantages to that, but outweighed by the advantages. I don’t know if you have seen much of the US, but the differences in how things like this need to be addressed based on population density, culture, climate, etc. are real. Top down control would not be very effective in my opinion.
     
  16. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2008
    Messages:
    18,965
    Likes Received:
    3,421
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Female
    557 I just wrote a long reply to you but it was one of those which got lost when my password ran out of time. There is no way I have time to do it again now, maybe later.
     
    557 likes this.
  17. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2015
    Messages:
    6,504
    Likes Received:
    1,646
    Trophy Points:
    113
    If the Coronavirus doesn't spread in the US, I would actually become suspicious.(1) Otherwise, a virus with a long incubation period during which it can be spread unknowingly, which has already affected enough people in different regions in different continents, would be expected to eventually spread across any country that hasn't been closed off from the rest of the world. There is no (publicly revealed) specialized treatment, cure or vaccine that would make Americans more or less vulnerable to it than others either.

    In the meantime, without wanting to sound alarmist, let me mention that I have read of several deaths linked to the virus involving those who didn't appear to fit the profile of older or ill people with compromised immune systems. And that raises additional concerns and leaves me to question whether we know enough about the virus to rely too much on those who stress its 'low mortality' causing propensities and such. Never mind even 2 - 5% of a huge population of infected people (if the virus spreads as widely as some experts warn) is itself a huge number of people, the less the fatalities from the virus are restricted to any identifiable class of people (e.g.,the elderly, diabetics etc), the more widespread fears about the virus will be. And that fear itself, regardless of what any government will try to do to contain the panic and its repercussions, will have huge socio-economic and even political ramifications.
    ---------------
    ---------------
    (1) Already, among Iranians, this virus has done more to cause disillusionment and lack of confidence in its government than all the actions taken by the US against Iran combined! Which is why, coupled with the fact that the virus in Iran began at the epicenter of Iran's theocracy, namely Qum, and has disproportionately affected mid-to-upper level government and semi-political functionaries (which means the kind of people who are best situated to spread the virus in both directions, both to the highest levels in the government as well as to the average person in the streets), and also given the volume of rhetoric and propaganda using the Coronavirus as a political ax against the regime going back to when there weren't even any reported cases in Iran, I can't totally dismiss some of the 'conspiracy minded' concerns about this virus you sometimes hear from certain people either. A virus that begins in China, and hurts it economically, and finds its largest next victim among people in Qum in Iran (and among Iranian officials), and which in the Iranian context has an even greater chance of spreading all over the country, does raise suspicions if it is then somehow (absent some cure or vaccine) contained in America (and its closest 'partner', Israel).
     
    Last edited: Feb 28, 2020
    alexa likes this.
  18. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2008
    Messages:
    18,965
    Likes Received:
    3,421
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Female
    Yes, I have heard that in Iran the virus appears to be killing some younger people and concerns that it may be changing. A lot of people in other countries have been infected from an Iranian source.

    I suspect the US has serious spread already.

    8000 people have been in self imposed isolation in California. Hundreds have been quarantined in Sacramento. One American yesterday was found to be infected having just spent three days in ordinary hospitals with no safeguards being taken - and this is an airborn disease. In addition that American did not get the virus from someone outside the country though the source is as yet unknown. In addition a South Korean hostess who was infected flew planes with Americans and on and on.
     
    Last edited: Feb 28, 2020
    Iranian Monitor likes this.
  19. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2015
    Messages:
    6,504
    Likes Received:
    1,646
    Trophy Points:
    113
    This case really stood out for me: a 22 year old female professional futsal player from the city of Qum, the epicenter of the Coronavirus in Iran.
    [​IMG]
    https://en.radiofarda.com/a/footbal...male-player-dies-of-coronavirus/30458514.html
     
    alexa likes this.
  20. LiveUninhibited

    LiveUninhibited Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 26, 2008
    Messages:
    9,419
    Likes Received:
    2,854
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I just looked at the numbers from the WHO situation reports. https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports

    The number of new cases outside of China is really escalating. For almost a month since WHO first started monitoring it the new cases outside of China per day were pretty small. But as of February 20th they reached an inflection point and now are hundreds, almost thousands of new ones per day. This suggests the incubation period can be long (maybe 3-4 weeks). At the same time, the rise in Chinese cases has become linear. I don't know if their containment is starting to work, they're underreporting, or what.
     
    Last edited: Feb 28, 2020
    alexa and Iranian Monitor like this.
  21. Tim15856

    Tim15856 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2016
    Messages:
    7,792
    Likes Received:
    4,229
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    For what it's worth, Israel claims to be within 90 days of having a vaccine.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...away-developing-vaccine-beat-coronavirus.html
     
    557 and alexa like this.
  22. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2015
    Messages:
    6,504
    Likes Received:
    1,646
    Trophy Points:
    113
    fiddlerdave likes this.
  23. Tim15856

    Tim15856 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2016
    Messages:
    7,792
    Likes Received:
    4,229
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    I saw something else about a claim they made that wasn't realized, so I guess we'll soon see if this is fake news.
     
    557 likes this.
  24. JakeStarkey

    JakeStarkey Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 4, 2016
    Messages:
    25,747
    Likes Received:
    9,526
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Prognosis
    According to WHO, based on analysis of 44,000 cases of COVID-19 in Hubei province, around 80% of people have a mild form of the disease, 14% developed more severe disease such as pneumonia, 5% have critical disease, and 2% of cases are fatal.[75]

    Among those who died, many had preexisting conditions, including hypertension, diabetes, or cardiovascular disease,[76] and the median time from initial symptoms to death was 14 days (range 6-41 days).[77] Males had a death rate of 2.8% while females had a death rate of 1.7%.[78] In those under the age of 50 the risk of death is less than 0.5% while in those over the age of 70 it is more than 8%.[78] No deaths have occurred under the age of 10 as of February 26th 2020.[78]


    Epidemiology

    Main article: 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak
    Overall mortality and morbidity rates due to infection are not well established; while the case fatality rate changes over time in the current outbreak, the proportion of infections that progress to diagnosable disease remains unclear.[79][80] However, preliminary research has yielded case fatality rate numbers between 2% and 3%;[81] in January 2020 the WHO suggested that the case fatality rate was approximately 3%,[82] and 2% in February 2020 in Hubei.[83] An unreviewed preprint study by Imperial College London among 55 fatal cases noted that early estimates of mortality may be too high as asymptomatic infections are missed. They estimated a mean infection fatality ratio (the mortality among infected) ranging from 0.8% when including asymptomatic carriers to 18% when including only symptomatic cases from Hubei province.[84]

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cor...QSC1AaZQqDbOgjjnDoXX96hH21eH5E7qzfJppe18PhHZc
     
    LoneStarGal likes this.
  25. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2008
    Messages:
    18,965
    Likes Received:
    3,421
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Female
    The most common time known for incubation is up to 14 days. However 23 and even 27 have been reported. In addition many people do not know they have anything wrong with them so do not seek treatment while still being infectious. Added to that some people do not read infected when first tested and then do later so there are lots of things unclear at the moment. It seems it usually takes those who were infected two weeks to get well while it takes around that time (11 days average) for people who have a severe dose to seek hospital admission. For them it is another 2 to 3 weeks till they die or are cured.

    I suspect that a lot of people in the US are being identified as having flue when they have the virus - that is what was happening with the guy last night and it took several asks before he was at last given the test and found positive. Hopefully the US will start to test all patients with flue symptoms to check it is not the virus. Other countries are doing this at the moment.

    From getting the virus it could take 3-4 weeks till someone sought hospital care - 2 weeks incubation, average 11 days to seeking medical help after that equals 3 weeks 4 days and if some really do take longer to get it, then of course that would be longer.

    Yes cases are going up and spreading everywhere. Yesterday they spread to 17 new countries.
     

Share This Page