Super Tuesday Early Voting Turnout

Does anyone want to share early voting stats from their state?

This is Texas early voting so far through yesterday. Early voting closes tomorrow.







8.54% of registered voters have voted already.

 

I got no specifics but it is gonna be an intersectionalized identity group cage fight.

 

Column 3 Registered Voters is identical for both R and D rows.

Does this mean that TX does not identify RV's by party?

 

When people show up to vote in a primary, we are "Independent". The volunteer asks which primary you wish to vote in. At that point you choose Democrat or Republican.

The 16.2 million is the total number of registered voters.

 

Interesting comparison to the 2016 early voting in the primary. Hard to believe that the number of registered voters has nearly doubled in Texas in 4 years.

This is total 2016 early turnout (not split by party).

 

Early voting has DECLINED by about 200k which is probably a reflection of GOP Minority Voter Suppression.

The INCREASE in Registered Voters is probably a reflection of the efforts of the Progressives.

This is why TX might go purple in November.

 

The 2016 data is not good for comparison purposes. Sorry! I was thinking something was wrong to have that many new voters.

In 2016, the state only published data for 15 counties out of over 200 counties, so that is only representative of the largest counties.

We got a new voting system before the 2018 mid-terms. The 2020 date is correct and is all votes.

 

Sorry about that...I just caught the error. We did have a surge in Latinos registering since BETO ran against Cruz for Senate.

 

Thank you for the update.

If the numbers in the link below are correct then in 2016 there were 14.4 million registered voters in TX of which 59% voted in the GE.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election_in_Texas

The increase would be another 1.8 million RV's since 2016.

The difference between Hillary and the criminal IMPOTUS was only 800k votes albeit that was a low turnout year.

 

That looks right. I was pulling data from the Texas Secretary of State's website. Not sure why they are only posting a sample of 15 counties from 2016, when they have all the data.

I did see this. Registered voters increasing by 420,000 in 2 years is great.

 

More from the TX Sec. of State.

Looks like about 1 Million Texans registered between the 2016 primaries and the 2016 general election. Another 1 Million have registered since 2016.

The voting aged population has also grown by about 2 Million.

 

Will anyone ever tell us who the early voters voted for (to compare with election day voters)?

 

Thanks for those numbers. They agree with the other sources I have been using so there has been an increase of almost 2 million voters since 2016 and the winning margin against Hillary was 800k.

Going to have to keep an eye on TX in November.

 

Are you talking about crossover or "strategic" voters?

A few people try to put the numbers together. In 2016, an estimated 12 million Democrats voted for Trump in the primaries, thinking he'd be the weakest competitor to Clinton.

https://www.redstate.com/diary/crei...llion-democrats-voted-republican-primaries-2/

Sanders' primary supporters in 2016 helped get Trump elected, as 12% who voted Sanders in the primary voted for Trump in the general.

https://www.newsweek.com/bernie-sanders-trump-2016-election-654320

This year, there's an organized push in South Carolina to have Republicans vote for Sanders in the primary. It's likely to happen in any open-primary states where Sanders is in 1st or 2nd place in the primary polls (like Texas).

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...th-carolinas-democratic-primary-idUSKCN20L1FF

 

In open primaries there is always going to be a certain degree of "cross over" simply because people should have the right to vote in primaries as they see fit IMO.

I doubt that they will make a significant difference because there is a subset of Republicans who actually DO support Bernie and if he is on the ballot in November and they could again "cross over" which that means Bernie picks up 12% that the criminal IMPOTUS will lose.

That could result in biting those with the malicious intent of "causing chaos" to end up being the ones who will be regretting their actions.

 

I don't know of any subset of Republicans who will vote for Bernie. Even the hardcore NeverTrumpers are saying they are willing to vote for any Democrat....but not Socialist Bernie. I think they're hoping that Bloomberg can buy a brokered convention.

The 12 million Democrats who helped Trump get the nomination regretted it. Given erroneous 2016 poll numbers, they thought there was no risk. It's possible that Republican crossovers could help Bernie win the nomination and some chance that Bernie would beat Trump. There is a risk, but the "bet" is that most Americans are not going to vote for a full-blown, self-avowed Socialist. They'll stay home or vote Trump.

 

Let me clarify since I worded my prior post badly.

12% of Bernie supporters in 2016 ended up voting for the criminal IMPOTUS. That makes them those who LEAN Republican rather than identify as Republican. Odds are they are FORMER Republicans who now call themselves Independents.

That means that if Bernie is the Dem Candidate they could potentially support him in the 2020 GE.

You are correct that the die hard criminal IMPOTUS supporters are NEVER going to vote for Bernie but that is already baked into the math. We are discussing those who might "cross over" and vote D instead of R.

It is still not a foregone conclusion that Bernie will win the nomination. If he does it is entirely possible that he will be forced to accept an ESTABLISHMENT running mate to appease the fears of those who don't understand the Progressives.

But let us not forget that the criminal IMPOTUS was supposed to lose to Hillary. The projections that Bernie will lose to the criminal IMPOTUS are basing that on him NOT garnering the support of the Dem base. If the GOP base could vote for the criminal IMPOTUS the Dem base will vote for Bernie IMO.

 

I think the assumption about the 12% of Bernie voters who switched to Trump were all actual Bernie supporter who were angered that the DNC rulers screwed their guy. I would still back that assumption, but it is possible that some of that 12% were strategic Republicans who planned to vote for whoever won the Republican nomination, whether it had been Trump or Cruz.

With some serious number crunching, it's possible to tell how many voters crossed over...but it isn't possible to know the individual motivations for doing so.

And no, we don't know if Bernie will win 1991 delegates. Republican crossovers could push him over the majority line, or at least have his numbers so close to 1991 that delegates on a second round would almost be forced to vote for him as the nominee. I'm hoping he wins Texas. Whether he's 1st or 2nd here, it looks like he and Biden will split the big pot of delegates 50/50 if current polling holds (and no one else gets to the 15% threshold for delegates).

 

Agreed that it is impossible to know the motivations behind primary voters however my own opinion is that Bernie's message DOES have cross over appeal to those who have been screwed over by the Establishment of BOTH parties. The Progressives would NOT be as successful as they are if his message wasn't resonating with those who are feeling the fiscal pain of being deprived of well earned bonuses and wage increases.

Per 538 predictions Bernie would end up with a 300 delegate lead after 3/3/20. As long as there are two others besides him in the race neither could catch him because they will keep on splitting the delegates he doesn't win. Bernie is fighting hard in EVERY SINGLE STATE and where he is not the front runner he is 2nd.

 

Both Bernie and Trump have tapped into the anti-establishment populist uprisings. Most supporters agree that wealth has trickled up to the wealthy with assistance from the self-enriching political elites in both parties, hollowing out middle-class opportunities. I'm not sure that there is much crossover appeal other than accurately identifying the core problem as the proposed solutions between Sanders and Trump are vastly different.

Bernie could win because perhaps there are more non-college educated whites who prefer a government which steals from the rich and hands the money to them rather than a president who gives corporations incentives to bring jobs back from overseas so more people have jobs.

 

Current Super Tuesday Polling:

 

25% of those jobs pay LESS than the Federal Poverty Level. Smart people would prefer to get their own money back that was originally STOLEN FROM THEM by the GOP and the Wall Street Casino Banksters.

 

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Looks like Bloomberg is determined to BUY the Whitehouse from the Dem Establishment and what is even worse is that they will sell it to him for next to nothing.

Sad!

 

Oh. So you don't agree that the core problem is that establishment politicians on both sides have enabled the wealthiest individuals to offshore jobs?

Well then that's a different conversation.