HHS estimates coronavirus mortality rate at 0.1%-1%

Do you understand 4^x ?

 

Yes, I understand exponents and parabolas.

I edited that post to note that an R0 of 4 is on the upper end of the R0 estimates that I have seen for this virus. As is the millions already infected.

If you alter those two factors, then the ability to flatten the curve is much more likely to succeed.

 

What was the RO of spanish flu?
What was global travel like during the spanish flu?
What was interstate travel like during spanish flu?

Tens of thousands of college kids are scrumping each other across our southern beaches as we speak. High school kids are flooding malls, hanging out cuz they have no school.
Bars are filled with college students with no classes.
Walmarts are filled with customers fighting over TP.


This virus has an RO touted to be 4+.
4^x growth curve. Assume 5 days to spread, though we know individuals can be symptomatic and shedding virus in 2 days.
20 cycles (about 100 days) equals 1.099T people.

First case in US on jan 19, 46 days and at least 10 cycles of spread as the patient had already spread it to at least 4 people prior to diagnosis.
That's 1,048,576 people infected

Flatten the RO and growth curve to 2^x
And multiply each result by 1,048,576, the number already infected.
That means in 50 days there will be 1,073,741,824 people infected.

Pissing in fans is so much fun

 

Ask me if I care about you too...

 

Again, you keep saying that the R0 is 4+. The data I have seen says it is around 2.2

 

Or to put it simply it is not under control and Trump lied.

 

Please post you source!

 

Would you prefer him to say it’s out of control run for your lives? He’s doing what can be done to slow the spread and control the outbreak and he is doing far better than Europe starting with the China travel ban and now the Europe travel ban.

 

No, YOU reflect him in the worst possible ways, and you put significant effort into it... here you are doing it RIGHT NOW. You complain about him not testing... but if he tested before you nagging him to do so you'd complain about him using tests other people needed. Your opinion is based on bias... bias against Trump

 

"Bad cold virus" isn't a good description.

Many who are not in the "at risk" category are still requiring hospital inpatient treatment. The elderly and compromised may be most likely to succumb, but plenty of others are being saved by our hospitals.

Here in Seattle hospitals have canceled all elective surgery and are cutting back as much as they can in order to handle the influx of COVID patients.

Plus, healthcare workers are one of the groups most exposed and thus most likely to be affected - depleting our supply of health care workers.


Dr. Fauci and others say one very real risk here is that our healthcare system could become swamped - and not just by those "at risk".

"At risk" is a good warning to those compromised to take extra care. BUT, maybe we need a measure of our remaining healthcare capacity - like a national inpatient bed count or count of free breathing machines, which appear to be important.

 

Of course.

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-myths.html

They note an estimated R0 of 2.2

 

It's a false choice to claim he needed to choose between saying it was completely under control and saying its out of control.

And he is doing what he can to slow the spread...now.

He failed to do such at the beginning (accelerating testing) and we are paying the price now.

 

Look, Trump has told lies from the very start and has made statements that are directly counter to medical advice. And, he's done that even in his latest question/answer session.

People DO need to know the truth. And, they need to know the best advice of experts.

Maybe he could say something about the right wing media that has broadcast the idea that this whole COVID thing is no more than a left wing plot against the president.

 

This is sure to grow worse if our healthcare system gets overwhelmed.

Those "at risk" may have worse outcomes, but that doesn't mean the reason for our survival rate doesn't depend on our medical capacity.

Today in Seattle, all elective surgery is canceled to focus on COVID. Plus, the rate of illness of staff is eating away at our capacity.

One might ask what our medical capacity will be in a couple months.

 

2 deaths.

11 exposures counting those brought to the US for greater care/study by the CDC.

 

I don't know what your point is here - at all.

If we had had a group working on a plan for pandemic response in the US, we would have seen it.

Very obviously, we did not.

Dumping on Obama is really pretty silly in so many ways.

 

Agreed on flattening the curve. There were some interesting studies in January showing what a 25%, 50% and 75% reduction in transmission does. It also showed what the same reduction in travel within Chinese cities did.

Interestingly transmission reduction person to person by 50% flattened the linear curve. Travel restrictions didn't dent the curve.

Now as to squid's assertion that overdoing this will effect resource distribution to the point of actually causing the harm that's assumed mitigation will just slow. He's absolutely right.

 

I think your math is off.

The 50% reduction would be compounded at each period.

Cheers

 

50% reduction in what?

The function is (RO)^x

Cut the RO in half and it is still exponential

 

We're affecting resource distribution by deleting the paychecks of low income wage earners.

So far, no federal action is being taken on that.

Seattle has moved to block all payment related justifications for eviction.

 

and where to we go to for guidance on what we should all do to prevent the virus from spreading, do we listen to politicians or scientists?

The two shouldn't be at odds with one another, but sadly we've seen several examples where they are, especially on this particular issue

 

I’ve asked you what lies and you have failed to deliver examples but just keep repeating your obviously baseless charge

 

9 periods.

Initial value = 1

Infection rate = 4

First period 1x4+1=5
Second period 5x4+5=25
Third period 25x4+25=125

Ninth period 265,625x4+265,625= 1,328,125.

Infection rate = 2

First period 1x2+1=3
Second period 3x2+3=9
Third period 9x2+9=27

Ninth period 6,561x2+6,561= 19,683

Hence exponential.

 

Unemployment Insurance is a federal program and all restrictions have been waved. It's no longer limited by time or total benefit. Workers testing positive and quarantined are eligible. All workers laid off are eligible with no waiting period. Work search requirements are waved.

 

Yes, you asked.

Then I answered.

Then you asked.

Then I answered again.

Go look.