Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Discussion in 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) News' started by Statistikhengst, Mar 14, 2020.

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  1. bx4

    bx4 Well-Known Member

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    In what ways is the US handling this differently than Spain and Italy, and similarly to S. Korea?

    Be precise, please.
     
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  2. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Yes. He's been talking the last two or three days about the need for people to get back to work.
     
  3. truth and justice

    truth and justice Well-Known Member

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    I think that it would be better to get away from counting number of cases and just look at number of serious/critical cases, number of recovered from serious/critical cases, and number of deaths. The number of total cases just depends on what percentage of the population have been tested which is not something that anyone should be concerned with right now other than for an academic exercise.
     
  4. ArmySoldier

    ArmySoldier Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    A lot of people sadly are taking advantage of this by calling in sick. Employers can't really do anything about it. I know that for a fact.
     
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  5. truth and justice

    truth and justice Well-Known Member

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    Hope you get better soon :wink:
     
  6. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo is indicating that New York is looking at the apex of the first COVID-19 wave in circa 21 days, which corresponds to the same time table the Spaniards and the Italians have gone through.

    And btw, statistics experts with big names, instead of an internet nobody like me, are referring to the same curve I have been referring to, and also mentioning the current 13% curvature of this exponential beast just as I am/have been. I am not alone in trumpeting these facts. Dudes and dudettes who get paid good money to work in statistics are saying the same thing.

    BTW, the Army Corps of Engineers, with the the National Guard, have built the hospital in Javits in record time. Bravo, guys, bravo.

    And Cuomo has got his stuff together, with an eye toward what New York is going to need in the next weeks. I have never before seen a Governor put facts out there as well as Andrew Cuomo does. Clearly, honestly, easy to follow. Bravo, dude, bravo.
     
  7. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    One day of an outlier does not define a slope. Again, it's like a sinus curve, even with exponential movement.
     
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  8. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    You look at the recent data to determine the recent slope.
     
  9. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The outlier is the upward spike.
     
  10. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Dude, I'm not so sure about that. The NYC Firemen are not receiving extra equipment against COVID-19. There is an extremely high possibility that some of them are already getting quite sick. To understand this, we need to understand that most firefighting systems (stations within a city) have two different functions:

    1.) Firefighting - with a certain type of protective gear
    2.) Rescue (EMTs) - with a different type of protective gear.

    Most firefighting stations organize their work schedule into two teams:
    1.) Firefighters on 24 or 48 hour shifts
    2.) Rescue workers on 12 hour shifts (because they are usually more taxing, excluding an event like 911)

    No doubt rescue workers are coming into contact with lots of COVID-19 infected people. After all, it's their job to rescue when a 911 call comes in. There are literally no new masks for the Rescue workers right now.

    So, with respect, I doubt that NY firefighters are playing hooking and I would put good money on the table that the vast majority of that 11% are those who were assigned to rescue shifts in the last 2-4 days.
     
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  11. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    If you have a point then make it. Italy was decimated by its population demographics, the influx of Wuhan Chinese garment workers returning from the festival in Wuhan, their weak healthcare system, and their cultural proclivity to be touchy feely. Same with Spain except for the Chinese.
     
  12. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Now England's 'Chief Medical Expert' is experiencing symptoms to go along with the PM and Minister of Health. :eyepopping:
     
  13. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Who is that ??
     
  14. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    Read post 1254. Again.
     
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  15. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    no. Quite the opposite. EXACTLY the opposite.

    2020-03-027 COVID-19 NY.png

    The numbers have continually risen. Only, the growth rate on 03-25 over 03-24 was 3% less, also the number of deaths barely rose (thank G-d) on 03/25. However, on 03-26, both shot up - especially the number of deaths - and today is sure to be decidedly worse. And now, learn from this: one day of %ually less growth rate does not stop an exponential curve. And now, before you just go spout off without presenting even basic facts, my advice to you would be to actually learn from this moment. If you are going to get down in the weeds about statistics, then you would be better served to actually bring facts with you next time.
     
  16. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Hmmmmm.... when did you have it?
     
  17. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Try navigating it. It's pretty intuitive. And sorry, I really forgot that it's in German. Usually, I work in 6-7 languages per week.
     
  18. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    January 4th through 9th. If the government wants volunteers to go get tested for antibodies, I'll go. But the symptoms were typical flu, which is a bit different from Covid symptoms.
     
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  19. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    It gets tiring, now doesn't it.
     
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  20. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Hmmmmmmm...... if you don't have a flu history at all (I don't, at all) and suddenly you had the flu, I am going to say to you as one friendly human to another, if they are willing to test you for antibodies, go do it. Because I have a theory that is hardening more and more all the time, when I read anecdotal reports from many places. Glad you healed well from it.
     
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  21. Spim

    Spim Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    p
    yes, were not very compliant until it's too late, I've seen about a 15% reduction in traffic at best.
     
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  22. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Dr. Birx said they don't have the antibody test developed yet. I'm pretty sure it was the flu. Flu symptoms come on in 1 to 3 days from exposure. I went to happy hour on Friday and a lot of people sounded like they had cold/flu. I started getting symptoms almost 24 hours later on Saturday afternoon. It was very mild though. This is a sever flu season too!
     
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  23. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    Where are you pulling the data from a State level (day by day like you have in this chart)? Does it also provide a source to pull at the city level?
     
  24. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    That was the wiki compilation for EOD each day.
     
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  25. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    While I agree with the theory, the problem is that there is a lack of uniform definition for what qualifies as "serious/critical" and a lack of reporting on serious/critical. For example, I know that Washington State did not report those numbers as of a few days ago.

    It seems to me that hospitals and/or States just have very little incentive/manpower necessary to justify constantly reporting on the number of serious/critical cases.
     
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