The predicted bloodshed is coming

Here's a thoughtful piece discussing the differences between the "case fatality rate", "crude mortality rate" and "infection fatality rate"

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-mortality-risk

 

Fair enough

 

Fair enough

 

Too late.

 

That was an informative article. It was rational and the conclusions reasonable. I don't see anything in that article that would contradict Dr. Fauci's numbers.

 

That's funny. In this article, he's quoted as saying "This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of COVID-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza pandemic [which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%] or a pandemic influenza [similar to those in 1957 and 1968]" in an article he co-authored for the New England Journal of Medicine.

 

wait few week, and see what new orlean, detroit etc gonna look like. New york and city with alot pop density and trans. hub will get hit the worst.

 

I agree, which is why I thought Jennifer Rubin's claim was idiotic.

 

And today is the 184th anniversary of the Goliad Massacre.

Proud to be from Texas! (see avatar)

 

That MEJM was co-authored so it's unclear who they are quoting at times. Also that was publish Feb 28, we have gained a lot of information in that time.

 

There are currently 102,462 cases and 1,607 deaths.

Mortality rate: 1.57%.

It's one of the highest rates in the world.

If 10% of the population is infected - within 22 days if nothing is done - there will be 516,000 deaths.

 

Hmmm, the world number is 4.5% from your website. "It's one of the highest rates in the world." is false.

 

Considering what the Army Corps of Engineers is doing in New York right now (building hospitals), the President today could not guarantee there will be enough ventilators for everyone, and the refrigerated trucks parked to NY hospitals for bodies, your post was in remarkably poor taste.

 

I think violence is possible if things get worse. Don't you? Suppose California outbids your state for ventilators? Or New York gets them first and hordes them while other states have people dying? I can see people getting mad enough to kill over that.

 

8 days ago, I predicted we would be at 50,000 cases in two weeks. 100,000+ maybe. We're at 100,000 now, and we're weeks away from getting on top of this. By mid April, we'll easily have 300,000+ infected, and those will be the priority test cases: the obviously sick ones. Since we're not testing asymptomatic people, the mortality rate for those people in the first wave will be through the roof. 5+%. We're going to lose 20,000 people in this first wave of infections alone. At least.

 

It already has a higher mortality rate than that (1.5% for U.S. right now). And since deaths lag infections by 7-10 days, the true mortality rate is today's deaths divided by number of cases a week ago.

We're not testing asymptomatic people. We're only testing obviously sick ones right now. Until we ramp up testing more, that's all we're going to be testing for awhile: obviously sick people. That means very few asymptomatic people in the pool of cases. That means that pool of cases, which is 100,000 people, are almost all sick with this, which means a lot more than 1% are going to die from it.

 

I'm pretty sure they do do something. You didn't buy them to hang on your Christmas tree, did you?

 

This lockdown has got to be knocking the infection rate down a lot. The problem is there has been a second wave of infections during the lockdown: all the family/close friends living with the infected person, and that's still going on. We're in for a very rough two weeks before this ebbs. More like three.

 

It is managed differently from one country to another and the statistics in the US are disastrous.

 

Not to worry . The Easter Bunny has been tested virus free ...!

 

There will be several waves because there is no national policy.

The regions that come out of an effective quarantine will be re-infected by those that have done nothing.

At the rate at which the virus is being transmitted vs. the death rate, in 100 days the coronavirus will become the biggest disaster in the US.

It will kill more Americans than World War II.

 

~ No ... the "global climate change catastrophe" yet on the horizon is still #1. Don't forget the impending Donald Trump economic recession meltdown.
So much to look forward to ...

 

All this bullshit makes me miss the Kavanaugh hearings or the Mueller report results.

 

Kill who? I suppose theres a tiny minority of folks looking for any reason to riot... are you talking about them, or are you suggesting folks from other states might go to NY or CA and start murdering people for ventilators?

I could see social collapse (and thus violent disorder) resulting from the shutdowns if they persist for too long (that's why I have extra food and ammo, after all), but I don't get the impression that's what OP is referring to. I could be wrong of course, but I don't know because OP didn't really explain what they meant by 'bloodshed' at all.

Thus my request for clarification.

 

You simply don't get it. There are alot, and I can not stress this enough....a lot more than 102,000 cases therefore the death rate is much lower.

What is so hard to understand about that simple math?