Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Here are the U.S. curves:

 

I've been having trouble posting as well. But the preceding went through fine.

 

I hope this doesn't happen to us:

 

There is a 26-page write-up on that web site about the data, which starts with this abstract summary. It does say that even with continued social distancing through the epidemic, they predict we will be short on need hospital beds.

The worst case scenario is really ugly, so people don't need to relax.

 

I think the site server went down for about an hour.

 

Full write up:

http://www.healthdata.org/sites/def...rticles/2020/COVID-forecasting-03252020_4.pdf

 

I want to thank you for putting the elbow grease into this. The information could truly be helpful. Kudos.

 

OMG. OH WOW.

 

In about one half hour I will be publishing the numbers for my end of day in Germany, and for the first time, they are going to be somewhat better than I thought. But seeing the deluge that's about to hit New York, just for starters, and then many other cities, towns and hamlets in the USA, Russia, India and so on, I cannot help but think of the scene from "DEEP IMPACT" when the meteor/asteroid actually crashes at incredible speed into the Atlantic Ocean. In the scene, a father and his daughter are standing on a beach on the East Coast - they cannot be rescued. And shortly after the impact, first, the water along the beach receded out to sea, there was a moment of deadly quiet and then all hell broke loose.

So, the slightly more encouraging numbers from tonight may be only just that - slightly encouraging. Details to come in 30 minutes.

 

President Trump is extending the 15 days of social distancing until April 30th.

This is a damned good move on his part. He is doing the right thing here, regardless of economic cost.

I am strongly in agreement with his decision.

 

Trump is giving the daily briefing right now. He just said that the federal government is extending the (previous) 15-day plan guidelines through April 30th.

 

Trump said we are sitting on 10,000 ventilators that they have to hold for an "emergency"...like if New Orleans or some other hot spot exploded then those are for unexpected response.

 

I hate to inform Trump, but based on the math everyone's doing: We're in an emergency.

 

Just said on today's federal press briefing: 894,000 tests have been performed in U.S. now.

 

That's what I thought to when he first said we have to save those for an emergency, but it makes sense really.

They are predicting that New York will need about 4,200 which they already have, even though Cuomo said last week he wanted 15,000 and yesterday he says he wants 30,000. Anyway the major manufacturer of ventilators has partnered with GM and they are working around the clock doing nothing but producing ventilators.

If one, or two, or three states finds themselves going way above the predicted curve and didn't get an "excess", the federal government needs to be able to ship quickly to exactly where they are needed. An emergency within the emergency, if you will. Heck, that "extra" emergency could happen in New York.

 

*720,217*
+58,850 cases today over yesterday
​

So, at end of day, 11:34 PM on March 29th, 2020 (GMT +0, which is 00:30 on March 30th, 2020 where I live in Germany), the COVID-19 numbers:




It is important to note that this morning, in THIS posting, I extrapolated what it would be like were every day to experience a COVID-19 growth rate of 11% over the day before. The extrapolation looked like this:

So, and I know it sounds perverse in a certain sort of way, but a +58,850 number of COVID-19 cases over yesterday (which is considerably under the +75,455 in the extrapolation) is cause for some real joy, because we did not hit the topline mark I extrapolated for today, which would mean, were this to be reduced over many days over and over, the curve will flatten and hopefully, one day, totally flatline. The growth rate in COVID-19 cases today over yesterday was only 8.90%. That is, in contrast to the other numbers, fantastic news. Please note that after I worked the numbers this morning, I presented three scenarios. Luckily for us, at least for today, the second scenario happened.

That's the good news. Now, here's the bad news. Take a look at the excel-table look-back to 02/27:



The death-rate, when you calculate the exact number of deaths by the exact number of officially published COVID-19 cases, has risen again, to 4.71% .Now, it could be that that is a result of more pinpoint-testing happening where COVID-19 cases are already suspected and that means that more of those people would be more likely to die, anyway. Or, it could mean, as I have pointed out more than once, that the % of people who are still ill is dangerously high and certainly there is a large number of people who have been on ventilators for more than 3 weeks. Those people are less likely to have a positive outcome. Either way, the higher the death rate, the more dead when the numbers of cases go into the millions or, G-d forbid, billions.


And here the stats, by country (600 or more cases):



Iceland and India have joined the "thousand club".

Again, the number of COVID-19 cases continues to rise, and the deaths as well, but the sudden downward growth rate for both today is a good sign. It only remains to be seen whether or not this is an outlier, because the USA thinks that the big wave will crest in two weeks from now. So, I am not trying to create false hope nor am I trying to dash hope. I am simply noticing that part of today's statistic is encouraging.

Two of my dearest friends in Germany have taken ill with COVID-19 and so I am somewhat distracted at the moment. The news that came in today has been a real gut-punch for me. So, I'll save a more detailed analysis for tomorrow

Stay safe, stay healthy, till tomorrow,

-Stat

 

Who is they? Jeeezuz they already have over 55,000 known infections in NY and it has been doubling every three days or so. If it peaks in two weeks we might see something like 4.5 more doublings, which puts the total count at over 1.3 million. With a 20% rate of hospitalization and 30% of those needing respirators, we would expect to have a total of over 80,000 people needing respirators for up to a month each.

It doesn't take a genius to see where this is going.

 

Exactly. There are ventilators in reserve. The reserve is being added to “daily”. The ventilators will go out to the locations as required.

 

Are familiar with the concept of time ???

 

They don't have nearly enough. That is the concern.

 

Are familiar with the concept of forming coherent arguments?

Did I confuse you?

 

It sounded like 10,000 was a federally required number they have to hold. It wasn't mentioned what the requirement is for an "emergency" release. Governors are bickering between each other trying to order the new ones coming off the manufacturing line.

 

They do have enough for now. And the reserve is growing daily. GM and Ford are gearing up. Additionally there is a device used in operating rooms which can be quickly modified to produce a ventilator. There are tens of thousands of these.

 

Excuse me, but that is laughable. NYC, our nation's largest city by far, is easily going to need around 30,000 ventilators. "They" (on the task force) are not in New York. Cuomo has said repeatedly and not just yesterday that NYC will need many, many more thousands of ventilators, upwards of 30,000. Do I really need to pull up the 15 or 20 videos where he has said this over and over again? Come on, this **** is not Alice in Wonderland stuff! These are human beings we are talking about! And no, the feds cannot get the machines there quickly enough if the overload happens on one day. The machines will not be there and people will die in the halls of the hospital (as they are doing in Italy and Spain) or maybe on the sidewalks.

This really sucks.

 

Governors are competing with each other to purchase respirators and supplies.