Comparative Rates of Death by Country

From the NYT (as of 30/03/2020) "Daily Tracker" here:
*Spain - death doubling every four days
*Italy - every seven days
*France - every four days
*Canada - every four days
*Netherlands - every three days
*US - every three days
*Portugal - " " "
*Denmark - " " "
*Sweden - " " "
*South Korea - every two-weeks
*Japan - every three weeks

 

Wait...I thought the US was supposed to be at the top of the list?!?!?! (note: I'm just going by what's in your post due to NYT requiring a subscription and F5 not working)

 

The US is coming late-to-the-game and I think its reporting is seriously under-determined.

And because the subject is a very complex variable to report accurately over a nation's entire geography, I think the chart is good for giving estimates (ie;, an idea) of what rate a country is getting to, which is interesting but not formally comparable.

I do not in the least trust the numbers completely due to their "nature" *...

*Meaning the calculation would be reliable only if there was the same agency doing the counting, and if all "counters" were trained to count in exactly the same manner.

 

Thank you very much.

If I were an American, I'd be in a panic.

Yesterday, Fauci was talking about 200,000 American casualties, and by looking at this graph, that number could be exceeded.

 

The country is really quite unprepared for what is about to happen. It's going to be a great great-shock to Americans, and Knot-Head will pay for his incompetence in November.

We hope, we hope, we hope. Because such a level of incompetence is quite atypical in a presidency. This jerk busts all the records ...

 

The people are resonsible for their own personal safety in this situation, not the President or some government agency. The people have been told what they need to do inorder to remain safe from the virus. We can't blame the President if people refuse to protect their own lives.

 

One never knows with a cross-country counting of events. There are no common rules for counting set down, unless done so by the WHO (in the matter of healthcare)

But in this instance, WHO fumbled the ball and retracted the death-accounting that they had formulated. It was then that the body now doing the counting assumed the responsibility.

Which is why I keep saying if there is no cross-country agreement about who is counting what and how, then one must be cautious with the results.

I am NOT SAYING that the counting is wrong. How could I - I wasn't there counting!

I am suggesting that one ust be careful about the numbers .- and especially from the US ...

 

That's an American view.

Here in Europe we have a National Healthcare Service (NHS), and we expect it to be wholly professional in nature. If you want the numbers regarding any illness or death in Europe, for sure the NHS will have it. People here are being taken to hospitals that belong to that service in each European country. (There could be a select few who go to a private-hospital. Which is what the rich do in Paris by going to the "American Hospital", where most if not close to all of the doctors are - I am told - French!)

I am seeing daily what happens when the bug-bites someone here in France. It's panics-ville. And people automatically show-up a their local hospital. So far, so good. The Germans have take some patients from the part of France closest to Germany because they have spare-beds. But, for the most par, the French are going to NHS hospitals throughout France.

Well, yes, that's what we do here in France and Europe.

Because running National Healthcare is the responsibility of governments here. And it is one helluva lot cheaper than in the US.

From here: Health care in france and the united states - Brookings Institution

A GP in the US makes $210K annually, whilst a French doctor makes around $120K a year.

 

From Worldometer:

The USA had its first reported case on Jan. 20

Italy had its first reported case on Jan. 29

USA: 2,616 deaths
145,542 cases

My math: That equals a 1.8% death rate from Wuhan corona17+2

Italy: 11,591 deaths
101,739 cases

My math: That equals an 11.4% death rate from Wuhan corona17+2

The present death rate in the USA is one-sixth that of Italy presently.

That's not too shabby so far.

 

Thank you. Your numbers match up to what I was seeing yesterday on the news.

 

Oh boy. Another non American telling us how our election will turn out again. Goody.

 

There's something incredibly odd about the numbers, and it's been noted on the stat thread for a while now: The insane(73%) of people who are "still ill". It's absurd because it's going beyond the 20 day period. There should either be a lot dead, or more recoveries.

 

From a country that would be speaking German if not for us.

 

Part of the problem seems to be the projections are based on NYC and not being scaled on proportionality...

 

I could be wrong, but I think those numbers are only for people hospitalized. Most people aren't.

 

With deaths at 7/M, Germany is doing a hell of a job. We are at 8/M, but most of the rest of the West is at 10 times or more than number.

The growth in the death rate though, still looks pretty steep.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany/

 

It's hard to wrap your head around the time lag.
20 days ago there were very few sick people - lets say 100.
But yesterday there were like 20,000 new cases.

 

Let's have a look in two months, shall we.

Besides, you make the mistake of looking at aggregate deaths. You should have done your exercise with deaths per population. The numbers would be very different, but Italy's nonetheless higher.

Which doesn't mean anything, comparing Italy and the US. Your comparing figs with roses.

You're not looking at the same data-points. Try this one here and note the difference between the US and the rest of the world.

Note that by the 30th week*, Italy and the US cross predictive death-rate paths on the graphic ...

*Put your pointer on the Italian grid-point to create a projection.

 

Spain held the International Womens Day celebration to spread the virus. The Louisiana Governor claims he thought Trump's stating that we have the virus under control meant that he should invite people from Global Hot spots to fly through NYC to New Orleans to infect the US as a celebration of the Coronavirus Mardi Gras.

 

Are you American?

 

What is it that we're unprepared for? You write like you know the future. Please do tell.

 

I think part of that is diligence on the part of individual nations to follow up with the "still ill" and whether or not they are strained for resources to administer follow up tests. But also I think it is partially that the virus can take much longer to beat than even the average ~20 days or so we are assuming it takes to kill someone. Take a look at the South Korea cases for instance:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/

They clearly have a handle on the virus and are actively following up with people to mark them as recovered. But the ~4200 active cases represents a total going back all the way to Mar 4 - Mar 5, which is 25 days ago. There is probably a not so insignificant portion of the people who are infected with the virus that will take a long time (4-6 weeks) to not only recover but stop testing positive, though I don't know what that kind of percentage would be off the top of my head.

Looking at the current % of closed cases (only 55%), it will probably be some weeks before SK has 90% closed and we can really have a good idea of what their final mortality rate for official cases should be.

 

Amazing how the “gun death epidemic” hysteria from the Left kooks has subsided in favor of a more promising hysteria created using the standard Pavlovian dog method of psychology enhanced with MSN repetition to magnify the mole hill into a mountain

 

Is it a coincidence that the hardest hit places in the U.S. are the most secular and least religious?

The NY Times blamed evangelical Christians for the virus. To me, this seems like a secular disease.

 

He has already transformed a dysfunctional system that infected 60.8M Americans and killed 12,500 in 2009 - 2010 and continued to kill people in later flu seasons into a lean machine capable of testing more people in a day than the next best country could test in a week. Europe had its Spain who decided to hold an International Women's day celebration to spread the disease. Trump had his Democrats who thought it would be a good idea to explode the US from a few cases to a pandemic by bringing sick people through NYC to New Orleans.

The Socialists waited for 1000 people to die before declaring an emergency, but the propaganda arm of our socialist party kept it silent. When the socialists were put on the spot to come up with funding, their priority was to fund Planned Parenthood to kill black babies, opposed border security for a disease that crossed our border, and demanded funding for the Kennedy Center and NPR. They tried to implement the Green New Deal to ban fuel needed to deliver medical supplies around the world.