Experts Say The Coronavirus Outlook Has Worsened, But The Trajectory Is Still Unclear

Discussion in 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) News' started by MrTLegal, Mar 27, 2020.

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  1. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...worsened-but-the-trajectory-is-still-unclear/

    This is a really neat method for trying to get a model on the future for Covid-19. Essentially, they poll a series of experts each week to make their own evaluations and then collect that data together. There is a lot of information here, but here are the two biggest questions that I think most want to know: When will the number of Hospitalizations peak in the US? And How many Americans are likely to die from Covid?

    upload_2020-3-27_21-15-44.png

    upload_2020-3-27_21-16-7.png
     
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  2. Jestsayin

    Jestsayin Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Saved for future use.
     
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  3. billy the kid

    billy the kid Well-Known Member

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    Market Junkie Banned

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  5. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    hawgsalot Well-Known Member

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  7. jdog

    jdog Banned

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    The trajectory is not clear, because it is completely dependent on the public behavior. When you have a bunch of asses who refuse to listen to medical professionals, and decide to put themselves and everyone they come in contact at risk, then things get ugly. When people act responsibly, then things are not so bad.
     
  8. dagosa

    dagosa Well-Known Member

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    Trump was just making small talk with ARod till Jennifer Lopez came out if the bathroom.
     
  9. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    Absolutely agree. That's why there is such a large range between the experts in terms of their estimated outcomes.
     
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  10. bx4

    bx4 Well-Known Member

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  11. dagosa

    dagosa Well-Known Member

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    It’s not difficult to make a model on existing information. But, the actions of the citizens is so inconsistent, it’s impossible to get reliable numbers.

    As much as anything, Trump bloviation and lying breeds inconsistency.
     
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  12. AKS

    AKS Banned

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    Ah the wisdom of the crowd
     
  13. jay runner

    jay runner Banned

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    Of course the trajectory is unclear. Most of the trajectory is in the future and totally unknown at this point except for guesses.
     
  14. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    The "crowd" here though are all relevant experts.
     
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  15. Paul7

    Paul7 Well-Known Member

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    Yet TDS patients expect Trump to make statements today that 100% line up with events weeks from now.
     
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  16. dagosa

    dagosa Well-Known Member

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    The only indication is what is happening in other countries. The UK is looking at 6 months. That means, in 6 months they’ll still not be allowing immigrants from s,h.i,t hole countries still behind the curve.....like Trump's vision of the US.
     
  17. AKS

    AKS Banned

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    Yep, I like the approach.
     
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  18. Paul7

    Paul7 Well-Known Member

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    The UK doesn't know what will happen 6 months from now either.
     
  19. squidward

    squidward Well-Known Member

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    Constantly rooting for the worst, in a gross display of political masturbation, the sadness of this OP
     
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  20. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    At no point in the OP is there a rooting for the worst.
     
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  21. AKS

    AKS Banned

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    For trumpers, pointing out what a jackass trump is is "rooting for the worst".
     
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  22. struth

    struth Well-Known Member

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    How did the OP point out that Trump is a jackass?
     
  23. struth

    struth Well-Known Member

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    The headline doesn't really match the words in the article...not at all:

    "
    “The situation this week is no more clear due to the diversity of responses across states, and uncertainty about the impact of those responses,” said Justin Lessler, one of the respondents and an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University.

    But, he added, if we “adhere to guidance around social distancing, take all symptoms seriously, and self-isolate at the first sign of potential infection,” it’s possible the outcome will fall closer to the best-case scenario."
     
  24. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    You think the headline, which is about the average of the responses provided by the respondents, does not match the body of the article because the body of the article quotes one of the respondents.
     
  25. struth

    struth Well-Known Member

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    Yes where he didn’t draw the conclusion in the headline
     

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