Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Discussion in 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) News' started by Statistikhengst, Mar 14, 2020.

PF does not allow misinformation. However, please note that posts could occasionally contain content in violation of our policies prior to our staff intervening. We urge you to seek reliable alternate sources to verify information you read in this forum.

Tags:
  1. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,793
    Likes Received:
    19,344
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male

    And the Darwin award goes to the author of that quote....
     
  2. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,793
    Likes Received:
    19,344
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    It's a Northern Hemisphere vs Southern Hemisphere thing.

    This is the Northern Hemisphere:
    220px-Northern_Hemisphere_Azimuthal_projections.svg.png

    Please note that all of North and Middle America, all of Europe and Asia and the northern African countries are part of the Northern Hemisphere.

    This is the Southern Hemisphere:

    Southern_Hemisphere_LamAz.png

    All of South America, the bulk of Africa, all of Australia (New Zealand and Co) and Antarctica are within the Southern Hemisphere.


    While the virus broke out in China in the middle of Winter, in the Southern Hemisphere is was summer. While we are going into spring in the Northern Hemisphere, they are going into their fall in the Southern Hemisphere. And when summer come to us, they will be experience winter and then the virus will surely run free. So, it's doesn't have anything to do with any one specific continent or grouping of people. It's purely bases on the progression of the seasons of the year.

    This is why people at the equator in the mild-climate zone are absolutely the most in danger if there are 3 COVID-19 waves, for they will not have the opportunity for a Virus-pause like the Hemisphere extremes of the world will likely have.

    The disease has already arrived in the Southern Hemisphere, but the weather conditions are not perfect for it to spread as quickly as it has hitherto in the Northern Hemisphere.

    That's the really bad thing about a true pandemic. There is never really a complete pause from it, because somewhere on the planet it will be flourishing.
     
    Last edited: Apr 2, 2020
    MrTLegal, Spim and Derideo_Te like this.
  3. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 3, 2015
    Messages:
    50,653
    Likes Received:
    41,718
    Trophy Points:
    113
    While I appreciate the data that you provided you IGNORED the most important aspect of the Supply Chain VULNERABILITY!

    Without PEOPLE the supply chain stops and when it stops it doesn't matter that there are silos full of grain located a significant DISTANCE from where the people are who NEED the food NOW!

    There are not enough farmers to bring food to all 330 million Americans. Those farmers are just as likely to be infected themselves. But under your ASSUMPTION it would mean that on average every farmer must provide enough food to 250 people ON A DAILY BASIS. They still need to run their farms at the same time. There MUST be Supply Chain Logistics in place and fully functioning for this to work.

    In summary the Supply Chain DEPENDS upon PEOPLE and it will break down if they are SICK with Covid19.
     
  4. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,793
    Likes Received:
    19,344
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male

    It's a North Hemisphere vs. South Hemisphere issue.
     
  5. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,793
    Likes Received:
    19,344
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Here, let me enforce that idea:

    "oooooh shiiiiiiiiiit. India, ohhhhhhhhhhh shiiiiiiiit, Bangladesh, oooooooooohhhhhhhhhh shiiiiit, Pakistan, ooooooooooooooohhhhhhhhhhhhh shiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit.
    Wipe outs, simple as that."

    Especially (sigh) India.
     
    Derideo_Te likes this.
  6. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 3, 2015
    Messages:
    50,653
    Likes Received:
    41,718
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Agreed and it also applies to keeping Congress open and demanding the presence of everyone on a daily basis.

    This kind of rampant idiocy is why so many have very little trust in the judgement of our elected representatives.

    Disclaimer: The above applies across the entire political spectrum so it is not intended as a PARTISAN political comment but rather a general observation.
     
    MrTLegal likes this.
  7. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 3, 2015
    Messages:
    50,653
    Likes Received:
    41,718
    Trophy Points:
    113
    What is with the red dots in the Oceans? :eek:
     
    557 and Statistikhengst like this.
  8. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,793
    Likes Received:
    19,344
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Not even shelters. Millions are literally sleeping in trees at night. IN. TREES. In the year 2020.
     
  9. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,793
    Likes Received:
    19,344
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male

    Oh, that is the evil red dot syndrome. One can obviously pray it away!!! :alcoholic:
     
    Adfundum and Derideo_Te like this.
  10. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,793
    Likes Received:
    19,344
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    BTW (and this is totally OT, so scream and head for the hills, but we need to COVID-19 relief in our lives), but my one dog is getting his teeth operated right now.

    Here was my little klingon warrior about 4 minutes after getting a narkose shot:

    20200402_072657.jpg

    Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz....


    View attachment 109407

    Much better doing Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz in papa's lap!

    20200402_073619.jpg

    Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.....

    Sometimes, I wish I were a dog. WUFF!
     
    Last edited: Apr 2, 2020
    LangleyMan, Adfundum, gnoib and 4 others like this.
  11. 557

    557 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 7, 2018
    Messages:
    17,373
    Likes Received:
    9,805
    Trophy Points:
    113
    The supply chain issue was addressed with my FEMA link. I’ve never claimed farmers would be that supply chain independently. It’s a combination of private business, government, and philanthropy.
     
    LoneStarGal likes this.
  12. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,793
    Likes Received:
    19,344
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Georgia Governor Brian Kemp, said yesterday that until then, noooobody knew that asymptomatic people could transmit the COVID-19 virus.

    Uhm, just to remind, he is a GOVERNOR.

    I don't think he's going to be blowing the Bell-curve any time soon.
     
  13. Woogs

    Woogs Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 6, 2011
    Messages:
    8,382
    Likes Received:
    2,556
    Trophy Points:
    113
    What temp and for how long, in your opinion, would be needed to give us a summer pause? Here in the southern US we've had record high temps all of March and yet the virus is spreading just as fast as in our more northerly climes.
     
    Last edited: Apr 2, 2020
  14. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,793
    Likes Received:
    19,344
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male

    I think that is a damned good question and am man enough to know to say I don't know when I don't know.

    So, ähm, I don't know!

    Now, putting that delightfully cute moment of personal ignorance aside, I have read in more than 40 official documents from the WHO, China, The EU (Germany, France, Italy, Poland, Austria, Switzerland, Ireland, the Czech Republic, just to name some) and also the CDC that retroviruses (actually, most viruses) can live in extreme cold up to -30 C and in heat up to circa +40 C, a 70 degree C zone of virus-viability, so unless the southern USA is literally burning, I don't think that will help much.

    The conventional wisdom has been that a generally colder climate is more helpful to the spread of such a virus since considerably more people come down with colds in the winter than in the summer and so, since the virus is spread per droplets (nose, eyes, mouth, perspiration on the skin) into the air, directly onto another person or via contact with a hard surface (where the COVID-19 virus can live, depending on surface, for up to 3 days time), it spreads more quickly in winter because more people are sneezing all the time.

    Example: an asymptomatic person sneezes while approaching the doctor's office in, say, Flint, Michigan, he sneezes into his hand, then grabs the office door knob to get into the waiting room. The next person who touches the doorknob now has COVID-19 on her hand, she then rubs her eyes. She now has COVID-19 on her eyes. On her way out from the doctor's office, she touches the door handle again, now she has contacted with COVID-19 twice. She contracts the disease, but doesn't know it yet and is not yet showing any symptoms. 2 days later, she sleeps with her husband. He now has the disease, doesn't know it yet. He flies a week later to, say, Chile, and shakes hands with at least 30 business colleagues, touches tons of door handles, gets into close conversations with people. Meanwhile, his wife at home goes to visit grandma at the old folks home. 3 days later, his wife gets sick. When he flies back home, he gets sick. A week later, grandma is sick. And all thirty of his business contacts have at the very minimum come in contact with COVID-19 - and that was LONG before symptoms were showing. The chain of contact by being asymptomatic, sneezing, getting COVID-19 moisture on your hand and then touching an inanimate object that others are going to touch in the following 72 hours is just.... enormous. Mathematically exponential to the point where my numbers brain would want to just explode.

    100 years ago, before international flight as we know it, the so-called spanish flu spread far more slowly to the Southern Hemisphere simply because there was less human to human contact from Hemisphere to Hemisphere. In 2020, before COVID-19 took it's rampage, we can see that human-to-human contact on all 6 liveable continents is just like, wow... so, this is why even the Southern Hemisphere, where such a virus would not have even started 100 years ago, it's already started. This is why even the smallest of numbers in, say, Chile, are extremely depressing.
     
    Last edited: Apr 2, 2020
  15. AmericanNationalist

    AmericanNationalist Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2013
    Messages:
    41,155
    Likes Received:
    20,936
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    While it won't help in a single day setting, I do think the consistency of the heat in the summer months could play a factor. It's like a food in the microwave. If you don't have the right minutes, it won't be cooked. But with the right minutes, it'll come out piping hot. Same thing here. No one single day will destroy the Virus, but it'll be death by a thousand sun rays. Constant heat will hopefully cook these bugs dry.
     
    MrTLegal likes this.
  16. bigfella

    bigfella Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2016
    Messages:
    7,501
    Likes Received:
    8,669
    Trophy Points:
    113
    A few things, some good planning, some good fortune.

    From my POV we have a genuinely mediocre government and a PM to match. The PM in particular bungled the handling of the bushfire crisis earlier this year. He & too many in his government played politics with it & responded late r& inadequately. There was a corresponding drop in popularity & a very real danger his term in office would be defined by that failure. As a result he saw this from the outset as an opportunity to show how well he could handle a crisis - a rare chance at redemption.

    The practical outcome of that attitude has been that the scientific & expert advice has been put front & centre rather than being ignored. Additionally, an antagonistic relationship with the Premiers of the two largest states has suddenly become very collegiate. We currently have a 'National Cabinet' consisting of the PM, Health minister & the Premiers & Health ministers of all the states. While they haven't always been in lock step, there has been a huge amount of co-ordination. It also helps that the Premiers of the two big states are good crisis managers. Both emerged from the bushfire crisis with their reputations enhanced, so when they tell people something needs to be done they are taken seriously. As further evidence of the 'in this together' approach to this, employer & union groups have been knocking their heads together to lobby government as a united front. That has helped to inform government policy to basically give everyone who can't work at the moment at least some money. This has helped to keep a lid on frustration.

    When it comes to specific measures we have been patchy, but done some key things very well. Very early on we moved to stop non-citizens travelling from China from entering, though we botched the next step & allowed people from Iran & the US to come in after we should have stopped them. We have one of the most rigorous testing regimes in the world, which means that we have a very low percentage of positive tests, and very few of those are serious cases - we have less than 200 people in hospital. That is hospital, not ICU. Those figures are even lower. We have also put a ban on elective surgery, which has meant that most private hospitals have no patients. They have been hired by state governments to cover any increase in demand (though not needed yet). We also moved to a lockdown weeks ago and have been getting stricter. Anyone who can work from home is doing so. All entertainment venues have been shuttered along with quite a few retail businesses. The states are in charge of doing this, but all have similar rules. Basically millions of people are at home and can only go out for a narrow range of reasons. Public transport usage in my home town of Melbourne has dropped 90%, so it is working. More evidence of this is that less than 10% of our cases are 'community transmission', while a hefty majority are either people who have been infected overseas or people in close contact with them.

    There is more, and I don't want to claim we are perfect or that this might not take a nasty turn, but we have basically taken a fact based, non-political approach. That doesn't mean the opposition hasn't criticised aspects of the government response, but the tone has been different to usual. The standard political antagonism isn't there. Hopefully we can continue to be successful.
     
  17. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,793
    Likes Received:
    19,344
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male

    You just spoke to something important. It has been clinically proven that the COVID-19 cells do not like ultraviolet light. So, sunlight helps to destroy the fatty sheath on COVID-19 cells, which then die shortly after. So, a long row of sunny days is indeed a good thing right now.

    But the constant heat really would have to be at slightly over 40 C.
     
    Derideo_Te likes this.
  18. AmericanNationalist

    AmericanNationalist Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2013
    Messages:
    41,155
    Likes Received:
    20,936
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    *Inserts into google* 104 F.....so basically we need a super hot summer.
     
    Derideo_Te and Statistikhengst like this.
  19. Woogs

    Woogs Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 6, 2011
    Messages:
    8,382
    Likes Received:
    2,556
    Trophy Points:
    113
    We've gotten up to the 32° C (90°F) range. Pretty much went straight into summer-like weather for much of March. Currently the area (southeast US) is experiencing a cool down; apparently an even more favorable range for the virus.

    That being said, the peak on the US is being forecast to be sometime near the end of April. How much of that is weather driven and how much is estimated on mitigation, I don't know.

    Going by what you posted, temps won't be the deciding factor in that timeline. That leaves mitigation, which may flatten the curve and take pressure off the hospitals. How long we can stay in mitigation mode is an open question. I don't see our current societal efforts at mitigation driving us down to China-like results. Without those type results, a second spike is a given if we open society back up.
     
    Derideo_Te and Statistikhengst like this.
  20. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,793
    Likes Received:
    19,344
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    YEPP.
     
    AmericanNationalist likes this.
  21. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,793
    Likes Received:
    19,344
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Absolutely. This really is a "we are all in on this, whether we like it or not" thing. What I do today will help determine where the nurse in Cologne will have to change her PPE one more time about a week from now, or not, whether a doc in Bonn will have to do one more emergency surgery in two weeks or not. It's chain that we can either break or inadvertantly add to.
     
  22. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,793
    Likes Received:
    19,344
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Entepreneur and super-rich guy Bill Gates is saying that we need a total national lockdown. He is absolutely right.

    Actually, we need a complete continental lockdown for the USA, Canada and Mexico, with the Mexican border to Middle American hermetically sealed off for 30 days.

    We need a complete lockdown of all non-essential highway traffic.

    Right now, the only thing that should be travelling on US/Canadian/Mexican highways and also making stops at truckstops (absolute COVID-19 hotspots right now, no doubt about it) should be:

    1.) Truck drivers, bringing and picking up essential goods for all everyone
    2.) Police, medical and fire- personnel, sanitizers
    3.) Limited press personnel (helicopter would be best).

    Legislatures should stay home and do business remotely.
    The Courts stay home and do business remotely.
    The WH stays home and does business remotely.

    The US military does "freeze-in-place" for thirty days, tests once a week and sorts out the positive cases. Every ship, every sub, ever tank, every base will have to be sanitized from top to bottom.

    COVID-tests (the 5 minute type) should be administered at every truckstop and at the end of every tollpike (for people who cannot show a test result from that day). Trucks/cars with negatives get a green sticker with the date. Trucks/cars with positives get a violet sticker with the date.

    As of this weekend, all private travel on US highways and state routes, excepting travel to the doctor or hospital or covid testing area, should be forbidden.

    The personnel who are travelling for essential purposes should be paid time-and-a-half starting right now.

    Every city, town, village and hamlet should have a 9 PM curfew, including dog walking.

    Complete Visit-verbot for every single old folks home and elderly gate community.

    If every single person, without exception, does social distancing for 30 days without fail and all possible contact surfaces are disinfected, then within 30 days, the cases will be drastically reduced and hospitals will not be overflowing. Also, medical personnel will be less likely to be in infected.

    There will still be some infections after 30 days. Just because of essential highway traffic and police/fire/medical personnel interventions, there will still be a minimal spread after 30 days, but most of COVID-19 would be dead in North America.

    Every US Governor who is putting lockdown in place, regardless of party, is doing the right thing.
    Every US Governor who is NOT putting lockdown in place, regardless of party, is helping the spread and therefore partly guilty for deaths over the next month.

    This thing must be uniformly applied, otherwise, too many positives slip through the cracks and the entire misery starts all over again.
     
    Last edited: Apr 2, 2020
    MrTLegal, Sallyally and Derideo_Te like this.
  23. Woogs

    Woogs Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 6, 2011
    Messages:
    8,382
    Likes Received:
    2,556
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Yeah, and stupidity puts us all at risk.

    A little personal story. Yesterday my son (an essential worker) was on his way to work. He saw a friend's door open in his neighborhood and stopped to check in on him. He hollered at him through the door. But says "come on in". My son walked in and sees him sitting there with a thermometer in his mouth!

    Well, he got right out of there, went back home, showered, changed clothes and disinfected everything he touched in his car before going to work.

    The guy with the thermometer in his mouth is also friends with my niece and he had been to Her house over the weekend. Her father (my brother) is a dialysis patient and also waiting on heart surgery. Her mom is a former cancer patient with diabetes.

    What the hell is wrong with these people? It's not like they're kids. They are all in the 40 year age range. They should know better but are 'bored since they got laid off because of the virus.

    This ^^^ is how the virus spreads and people die.
     
  24. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 3, 2015
    Messages:
    50,653
    Likes Received:
    41,718
    Trophy Points:
    113
    A while back when I noticed that Africa was way behind as far as infections went someone mentioned that it was because it was still Summer in the Southern Hemisphere. The problem was that Australia and South America were encountering infections and they were experiencing the same Summer as Africa. The reason for the Africa anomaly only came to light later and it had nothing to do with and seasons.

    Another member posted about humidity and high temperatures and I did some research into that as well. A 2010 study on the SARS Corona virus indicated that it can survive equally well across the range of temperatures that occur seasonally with only the extremes of heat and cold killing it off.

    So the answer to your question is that you would need a consistent heat wave nationwide above 95F and there must be no air conditioning anywhere while the heat wave is in progress in order to kill off the virus. Even then it could still survive in a fridge or a beer cooler or even just some shade that was below that temperature.
     
    Sallyally, Woogs and Statistikhengst like this.
  25. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,793
    Likes Received:
    19,344
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male

    And the Darwin award of the day goes to....

    ( OMG )
     
    bx4 and Derideo_Te like this.

Share This Page