Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

I just took a look at Oregon's prediction on the model. Perhaps they are the S. Korea of the United States.

Oregon shows zero shortage of beds and an estimated need for only 133 ventilators (which they probably had already, plus enough extra to give away). Peak resource need and deaths is pushed out to May, and expected deaths at the peak is 22 people on the peak day. Total deaths in Oregon projected at 533.

Major kudos to Oregon Governor Kate Brown for planning, forecasting and budgeting for her state's health needs and stockpiling enough excess to meet her citizens' own needs and be a "giver" to other states in a time of crisis.

Anyway, that's super news to see Oregon, the federal government, and even China jumping in to help provide for New York's shortages.

 

There's another thread devoted to conspiracy theories.

 

If you need just a little break from all this depressing COVID-19 news, here is a story that really is very good. It's about falling in love in the middle of a pandemic:

https://twitter.com/CBSEveningNews/status/1246211563503202309

Worth every second of the watch(ing).

 

Looks like you took a wrong turn on your moped.

There are some really good threads out there is PF about wild-assed conspiracy theories, you know, the hard core "who really killed JFK???" stuff. I think your posting will find a good home there!

 

That has been my observation in listening to press briefings. Cities and states are all essentially trying to hoard as many supplies/ventilators as they can which is only exacerbating the supply chain issues where there are simply not enough ventilators in existence to meet demand if everyone tries to place orders for 5 times more than they need.

It's just like empty toilet paper shelves. The people who now look "smart" for hoarding all the toilet paper have plenty for their own needs for the next 20 years, but now a lot of people really need TP and can't even get one roll except at double or triple-price.

States that didn't plan well for the future are not going to make up for it now by trying to beg, borrow and purchase every "roll of toilet paper" on the planet.

 

Here you go (and again, I only tracked the data back 8 days because that was enough work for me):



In terms of the raw numbers, the EU collectively has a Mortality per millions at 73.761 and the US has a mortality per millions at 22.592. What you can see is also the rolling 7 day average (from 04/02 and 04/03) as well as the rolling 3 day average for those days as well. The black numbers are the raw differences within each region (EU to the right, US to the left) and the colored numbers are the numbers compared against each other.

The EU is accelerating faster than the US on a deaths per million basis.

In terms of the 7 day average, the US is starting to catch up to the EU (22.185 down to 21.409), but the 3 day average shows the EU accelerating faster than the US (9.1106 up to 9.179). Taken together, one can conclude that the EU is still accelerating faster than the US on a deaths per million basis.

Please do. It takes a while to track through the pages individually and if there is a way to automate or streamline the process, I would love to hear it.

 

Kind of like reverse attrition.

Welcome to the hunger games 2020, COVID-19 style!

 

Great post. Except for the hard zinger in the last sentence. And pray tell, which of the 50 states has planned really well for this pandemic?

 

Oregon, California, and Kentucky seem like a few good examples so far.

 

Texas is in decent shape, even with a population of 30 million.

 

It doesn't matter what you or anyone chooses to claim about the part coronavirus plays in the deaths. The important information is the identification and percercantage breakdown of the preconditions in those that died "with coronavirus". Publication and updates of that breakdown will reinforce those with those preconditions to take extraordinary precautions to avoid infection. Dr. Stephen Smith who runs an infectious disease clinic in CT and is treating ~ 100 coronavirus patients has data showing that pre diabetes, diabetes, obesity (BMI over 30). heart disease, are preconditions which place individuals of any age at great risk. He has also had great results using hydrochloroquine and azithromycin stating that any patient that has taken a full 5 day regimen did not require intubation.

The Italians have not reduced their death totals but they have shown that 88% of those who have tragically died had very significant preconditions. They are not dismissing the role of the virus.

I would like to see the US data broken down by preconditions. I think that data would send a very important message to those with those preconditions.

 

No conspiracy theory intended or expressed. Top to bottom, the dire predictions based on models have driven extreme policies. I hear the modelers are backing away from their predictions, if in fact Drs. Fauci and Birx expressed accurately what the modelers told them ,,, and there's no reason to believe otherwise. BTW, spending the first 10 years of my career developing computer codes required to prove that the worst postulated accident, a double ended guillotine break of the largest pipe in a nuclear system, will not cause the core to melt. That assumption can be found in 10CFR50.46. We all know that the core at TMI2 melted after routine maintenance on the feedwater polisher tripped the feedwater pumps and the operators made 8 mistakes.

I watched in amazement after installing a state of the art drift flux model for small break analysis, my customers, the analysts, could make the code produce virtually any result they wanted regardless of the technology I developed and incorporated.

In short, I'm not a conspiracy theorist, but have a well earned cynicism when it comes to modeling. I'm not alone. After 8 years of preaching about the dire effects of Climate Change, Obama bought a property that the models claimed would be under water 20 years ago.

 

Case in point. Solano County just had their first death.

Why will they not release the multiple severe underlying health conditions ?? That information could save lives.

 

Clicking through the states on the model, it looks like there are more states which are prepared with beds and ventilators. They will have a small, medium or large wave of cases and deaths, but the deaths won't be due to the lack up supplies/ventilators. In fact, there are only a few states (mainly dense cities within states) which appear to be in significant danger of not having beds or ventilators. That suggests that we will hopefully be able to move ventilators around the country as different cities break out and surpass their needs.

Clicking through each state's prediction model actually made me feel a little bit better about the "overall" picture.

What is not on the model are the relatively inexpensive disposable items. Our frontline fighters, the healthcare workers, all need more gloves, masks, gowns, and booties. We cannot afford to lose them because of PPE, as they will also likely being moving around the country from hot spot to hot spot (along with ventilators).

 

The hospital bed model for NYC is currently off by a factor of 4 too high. In use are ~ 15K beds - predicted is ~ 60K. Of the 1000 beds on the hospital ship only ~ 20 are being used.

 

I optimistically don't think there is much danger of running out of ventilators or beds. People will figure it out.

 

Yeah. The number of deaths first predicted was like 240,000. Fauci & Birx reported those numbers that they attributed to the modelers. Yesterday I heard that the modelers disavowed that number, blaming it on the Whitehouse. I've watched all the briefings and Birx appeared to be the numbers hawk who waits up for the modelers to complete their work to begin her work. The Whitehouse, Trump, defered to Birx every time someone asked about a statistic.

 

I have a lot of respect for Dr. Birx. In the daily briefing yesterday she made the point that after the crisis was over there would be plenty of time to determine what went wrong. She did cite the fact that Red China claimed no evidence of human to human transfer on 1/14 and that the WHO claimed that there was no need for travel bans on 2/4 until she was cut off by CNN’s Jim Acosta.

 

708 people died of COVID-19 in the UK today.

Currently, 733 people have died in the USA from COVID-19 today.

681 people died in Italy today. That is a significant reduction over the totals each day last week.

Currently, 546 people have died in Spain. Spain releases numbers twice a day.

 

These numbers are extremely conservative. *Extremely*. Since the world wide curve is exponential and is not abating, the death toll is going to be far, far worse. 100,000 to 240,000 deaths in the USA is a best-case estimate based on fairy-tale predictions of perfection within the USA, conditions that we will in no way, shape or form achieve.

I will refer you to this posting of mine.

And "I heard" doesn't say anything to me. If you "heard" it, you can attribute it to an exact source, right? Exactly what are the modelers names? Where and when did they disclaim the number? To whom did they disclaim the number? Do you have audio or video of this you "heard" it stuff?

Also "appeared" doesn't mean jack-****, either. Those are just words that are used when facts to back up claims are failing.

Also, Trump referred to Birx because he is not a numbers person, assuming that he even understands numbers. That alone would be a heavy lift.

Meanwhile, the death rate, actual death / actual reported cases = 5.36%. That's FACT, not "I heard" or "appeared".

 

Very nice, thanks for being willing to put this together. So at the moment US as a whole is doing better on the main statistic we will probably measure this by (how many have died). Although I suspect France dumping so many additional new deaths in a couple of days that were likely distributed over a much greater time has skewed rolling 3 day average for Europe somewhat. I am all for more data, but not having it on the right dates can muck up averages and trends we are trying to follow *sigh*.

At any rate, I'm looking forward to seeing if this gap between the US and Europe widens or shrinks over time.

 

Cuomo said today that he has New York up to around 80,000 beds. The model showed an initial number of 13,700 in New York, with a shortfall of 74,000....so he's gotten the state fairly close to "ready" for the expected peak, which is supposed to hit 5 days from now. As long as they can release patients from the hospitals almost as quickly as they take in new patients, with some wiggle room to spare, New York should have an excess of beds.

Cuomo said today that 66% of hospital admissions are being treated and released. The other 1/3rd are requiring longer stays (and more ICU needs). Hopefully they can avoid a bottleneck over the next week to ten days.

Being the epicenter of the virus has scared New Yorkers into complying with stay-at-home orders. That will help.

Times Square (without the normal thousands of people):

 

The percentages are not known. If they realized that 88% of the deaths are the result of contracting the virus with these preconditions that would be beneficial.

The existing evidence is solid showing benefits and the amount of evidence is growing. The medications are being used by physicians today around the world. Chloroquine has been around for ~ 70 years, is inexpensive, is safe, and 1 million patients are taking it globally. It is being used to treat lupus to reduce/prevent inflammation which is one of the main symptoms leading to death resulting from corona virus infection.

Get the data out - it will save lives. And continue to use chloroquine both as a prophylactic and treatment. Why not make it available to those at high risk as a prophylactic ??