U.S. Birthrate Drops 4th Year in a Row, Possibly Echoing the Great Recession

Discussion in 'Current Events' started by kazenatsu, Apr 3, 2020.

  1. Phyxius

    Phyxius Well-Known Member

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    How many "replacements" have you made and provide for?
     
  2. Surfer Joe

    Surfer Joe Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I read that there will be a coronavirus baby boom after so many people are forced to stay inside getting bored.
     
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  3. Pred

    Pred Well-Known Member

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    Except for nearly every Latin American country being a corrupt, barely 1st world, poop hole?
     
  4. FreshAir

    FreshAir Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    both parents have to work, used to be optional, so yes, many want to be more financially secure before having children

    but for many that time never comes as the cost of living keeps rising and the pay has not kept up
     
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  5. FreshAir

    FreshAir Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    that could be true as well... the Corona Generation
     
    Last edited: Apr 4, 2020
  6. VotreAltesse

    VotreAltesse Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Or a divorce boom, a lot of couples that could stand each other more than one or two hours and used work to avoid each other would explode.
    Apparently that what happened in China.
     
  7. FreshAir

    FreshAir Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    as for the recession, it's coming, it was coming before Corona, not it Will be even worse, maybe even a depression

    we were not in as much debt last time, this time may require a reset.. IE bankruptcy for the country
     
    Last edited: Apr 4, 2020
  8. VotreAltesse

    VotreAltesse Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Many latinos see themselves as white. Furthermore, many south/central american country have low fertility rate, for instance Brazil has the same than China and Colombia has almost the same than China.
    Mexico is around 2.1, that's barely the replacement rate, and considering how much mexican kill each other, it's not enough to keep their population up.
    In fact the only countries that have still a very high birth rate are mostly the black africa countries, and a part of arabic countries.
     
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  9. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I think it's a little more complicated than that.
    It has to do with cost of living relative to available job opportunities. It's about a sort of ratio.

    In a place where it's very expensive to live, but the option is available to women of trading her time for money, she is less likely to have a family.

    It's not necessarily about whether women are rich or poor.

    It's more about an individual trade-off.

    A woman in one place could be poor and have to constantly work to pay the cost of living and survive, while a woman in another place could be even more poor but the cost of living is so low and there is so little job opportunity that she has very little additional to gain by working more.
    (In that case it could be said that the opportunity cost to her of having a family is not as great)

    Similarly, a wealthy woman may live in an expensive city, but if she stops working, her wealth will disappear very fast due to the high cost of living. Meanwhile, another woman may live in a more rural area and, though she is less wealthy than the first woman, be able to maintain a higher standard of living if she takes several years off from working.
     
    Last edited: Apr 4, 2020
  10. VotreAltesse

    VotreAltesse Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I would see three determining factors :
    _Population concentration.

    _Over stimulation. The extreme presence of food, pornography, movies, video games will over stimulate the reward system in the brain. Motivation isn't an unlimited ressources, and the reward system in your brain can grow tired. Basically, we are to entertained to mate.

    _ Ideology and laws. That last one is slighty related to the two above. There is many ideologies today who see the fact to have children in a hostile way, and it explain why a country which has an extreme population density such Egypt (the brut number don't take account that egyptian has to live near the coast) have still a high birth rate. Simply because feminism is low, MGTOW don't exist there, and Islam is very powerfull. Many men went in prison in the USA for not paying alimonies or child support, or other have to pay half their income into that, so men that don't want to go in prison or end as a wage slave don't get children.
     
  11. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    But you are conflating the Mexicans that come to the US with the "average" Mexicans.
    Which is not really the case.
    I saw an interesting study several years back that showed the birthrates of Mexicans who came to the US was actually higher than it was in Mexico as a whole.

    Now, of course we would expect birthrates of individual Mexicans to go down at least a little bit after they came to the US, but I think what this was is Mexicans who have higher birthrates are the ones more likely to be the ones to come to the US.

    We know that Latin American societies tend to be very heterogenous, even much more so than the US.
     
    Last edited: Apr 4, 2020
  12. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    It will be like Mexico, except without the warm climate.

    Sure food trucks are fun, but only if you're a tourist from a wealthier country.
    What we have to realize is all these food trucks only exist because there are poorer people who don't have better opportunities.
    You might not see lots of food trucks as such a good thing when you're the one working your entire life in one.

    Many Americans are so naive and ignorant about the outside world, they don't even realize fully what that means.

    The parts of Mexico that most tourists see are not the normal parts of Mexico. Mexico has intentionally created special tourist zones, where tourists don't have to look at the poverty, and these areas have special police protection. And something else many tourists don't realize is that Mexico City (and the immediate surrounding areas) is actually quite affluent compared to much of the rest of the country.
     
    Last edited: Apr 4, 2020
  13. gorfias

    gorfias Well-Known Member

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    This isn't just happening by accident. Mongolia, for instance, is sending women to college as they need male physical strength to stay on farms for now. The college educated women are finding these farmers to be unsuitable mates.
    Now in the west? "Free" college? It is a transfer of wealth from men who earn it to women that did not. The males are being steered into the journey men fields that are vital but women with gender studies degrees are finding those males unsuitable mates while living off of and exploiting them. Not sure how we fix all of this but pointing out the problems/issues with this is step one.
    Happily, humans know they are in trouble in a way the mice did not. We can fix this but it isn't going to be easy. It is fascinating though how much of today's problems parallel those found in the mouse utopia. Humans walking away from their bio imperatives as we're told how unimportant and even despised such life affirming behaviors are in our current sociology.
     
    Last edited: Apr 4, 2020
  14. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Oh, by the way, just to let everyone know, even though I'm the member who started this thread, I am not the one who created the title "U.S. Birthrate Drops 4th Year in a Row, Possibly Echoing the Great Recession".
    It seems one of the forum moderators took the liberty of changing the thread title from what it was before.
    [Edit: It's also possible I could have been so out of it when I put together this thread, that I cut and pasted some title from some article, and did not even realize it. Of course now I can't even remember what the original thread title was]

    I just want to be clear and let everyone know I was not trying to suggest there could be a "Great Recession" when I started this thread.

    The way I see it, this has been a very long-term trend.
     
    Last edited: Apr 4, 2020
  15. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    "We" ? I've become cynical over the years, and gradually come to the realization that most people don't really care.
     
    Last edited: Apr 4, 2020
  16. gorfias

    gorfias Well-Known Member

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    Sometimes things have to become a crisis before people start to care. Right now, the world is over populated so this doesn't feel like a crisis. I think one more gen. will do it. Two tops.
    Maybe by then, ectogenisis will be a thing. A major problem right now? Given the freedom to choose, women are choosing not to replace themselves. Either the choice has to be taken away, or we need tech. to expand our choices.
     
  17. 3link

    3link Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I’m not a conservative, so I’m not opposed to using condoms or birth control.
     
  18. cristiansoldier

    cristiansoldier Well-Known Member

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    Isn't that a synopsis of the movie "Idiocracy".
     
  19. 61falcon

    61falcon Well-Known Member

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    Whites of European heritage, regardless of which country they now reside, are diminishing in numbers. Plain and simply they do not have enough children to replace those dying off.Blacks in America are not growing in numbers either, and even Hispanic birth rates have slowed down. Our current president has declared war on immigrants so their numbers are shrinking. All of this paints a very bleak future for American companies and industry. And shrinking population is not unique to primarily white European ancestry countries Japan is even worse off than we are as they have hundreds of empty homes rotting away as there is no one to occupy them,China also now has seen their birth rate falling.India is soon going to surpass China as the worlds mot populated country.Nigeria will replace the USA as the third most populated country.
     
  20. VotreAltesse

    VotreAltesse Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    India is starting however a demographic transition, they're around a fertility rate of 2 however, and I suppose, excepted a huge disaster, than in 50 years, India will get a very very low birth rate.
     
  21. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    No, the muslims there are graducally outbreeding them. A fact Hindus and their current leader Modi are acutely aware of.

    The birth rate will likely start going back up once the ratio of Hindus to muslims diminishes.
    That still may be 50 years away.
     
    Last edited: Apr 4, 2020
  22. Junkieturtle

    Junkieturtle Well-Known Member Donor

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    Birth rate is going to go up sharply here real quick. The COVID generation, spawned this spring, will all be born in the fall and winter. It'll be weird. You'll look through a school yearbook.

    Class of 2036 - 356
    Class of 2037 - 344
    Class of 2038 - 906
     
  23. Monash

    Monash Well-Known Member

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    Sorry its not, I'll attach links to the relevant sources or you can just go to a site called 'Our world in Data' collated and charted by scholars from Oxford University. It has charts and statistics on heaps of useful topics with accompanying explanations - including ones on population growth and related statistics

    As for chain migration that simply is not a major driver of the effect I'm talking about and will be even less by 2100. Population growth has declined across nearly all of South America and South East Asia with only regressive and/or poorly developed countries in Central America generating the effect that seems to concern you. On current trends that won't be a problem by 2100. In fact the biggest problem will be finding enough young workers to support the bulk of retired older people. The last link is an explanation of declining fertility rates which links to other charts.

    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/...ncome countries+Upper-middle-income countries

    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/population-growth-rate-by-level-of-development

    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/population-growth-rate-with-and-without-migration

    https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate

    The above charts are just a couple of examples and show declining birth rates are a global phenomenon. (With outlying pockets in the least developed parts of the world or those undergoing high levels of political/economic/social turmoil.) And the number of such locations is in decline as Africa slowly climbs its way out of poverty e.g Ethiopia today vs 25 years ago.
     
  24. Monash

    Monash Well-Known Member

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    I don't have to welcome anything, since its highly unlikely I'll be here to see it. The facts in this instance are, like death an inevitability. As for 'Narcos' comment what's your suggested solution? 'The Handmaids Tail' perhaps?
     
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  25. Ericb760

    Ericb760 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Or both...
     
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