Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

So you are saying that it is better overall not to provide those most at risk with the information that they are most at risk ???

 

Which would be half of the US population and probably more than half of the workforce.

 

They already know, its all over the internet. If you do not know now, you will never know

 

It was 88% of the ~ 12K fatalities in Italy. Where do you get half of the US population and more than half the workforce ??

 

What preconditions are all over the internet ?? What percentages are all over the internet ?? How do you know everyone knows ?? If they all know why are they still tragically dying ??

 

Good evening. Today, finally, there are some positive trends have started to develop in a few of the hotest hotspot nations. Here is what I'm seeing:


So a lot of stuff highlighted here. First, the obvious positives. Iran has been falling on 3 day average in new active cases. From above 2,000 seven days ago, to now just barely above above 1,000. This means case closures (predominantly recoveries) are starting to overtake new cases. That is a very clear sign that the curve of peak hospital usage is being approached. In a similar boat, Switzerland has finally dropped into negative active case change on their 3 day average and sustained it for a couple days.

On the optimistic, Italy's average change in active cases has stabilized at very close to 2.5K for a few days. Obviously we'd prefer to see that continue to decrease, but at least it is down from from the 4K range. Similarly new deaths finally have dropped below 700 for the first time since Mar 25. Spain is seeing even more promising signs with a rapid drop in average active cases, and their first day of sub 700 deaths since Mar 24. Belgium also did drop in average from the 1.2K range, but has since been creeping back up.

And for the negative, the acceleration in deaths in the UK has pushed them over the 10% mortality line. It was a very sudden lurch from 6.29% just seven days ago, but shows just the strain this virus has put on so many first world nations. Netherlands will be joining it in the 10% club tomorrow, to be followed by Spain and almost certainly France.

The US of course continues to post 1,000+ deaths daily. Today, I noticed a couple of things about the individual state's reporting that bears mentioning:



New Jersey is extremely close behind New York. They fortunately went to stay-at-home orders back on Mar 21 (9pm). At the time, there were 16 deaths total. So we might expect their new deaths per day to peak around the time they do with New York at a mercifully lower total. But still, it appears it will be quite high based on where they are now.

Other than that, for all the flattening California has done, the new deaths per day continues to trend up quickly. That is now 32, 34, and 44 today. Clearly the state has worse times ahead in the immediate future.

One more thing I'd like to cover tonight. Worldometers has added a new useful piece of data: total tests. This makes it easy to calculate the % testing positive out of a population. This can give us some idea of which nations are testing well or limiting who gets tested. Here are the results:





We can see definitely some nations simply are not testing much at all. Philippines, Indonesia, and Brazil chief among them as they are all large nations that should have 100K tests done by now minimum, if not several hundred thousand given their % testing positive.

On the positives, Australia, South Korea, and Canada appear to have done a pretty good job of testing, and thus far have a low positive rate compared to other nations. Iceland also appears to have things managed for now, and by offering testing to the whole population has a bit more accurate read of just the % of the population infected.

And Russia, that paragon of honesty, has apparently done an outstanding job testing and basically nobody has the virus. So no need to shut anything down there, go about your business as usual. China of course conspicuously absent from even having total testing numbers.

If you'd like to see the list sorted by mortality, you can do so on my sheet here.

 

While the daily report of new deaths in Iran have been more or less steady, for the first time since the start of this pandemic, Iran has now more total deaths reported from the virus than China.

Top 10 countries with most deaths as of April 4, 2020:

1- Italy: 15,362
2- Spain: 11,947
3- USA: 8,452
4- France: 7,560
5- UK: 4,313
6- Iran: 3,452
7- China: 3,329
8- Netherlands: 1,651
9- Germany: 1,444
10- Belgium: 1,283

---------------------------

In terms of "new deaths", the UK reported more such deaths than Italy (who are now only in 5th place overall), while the US leads the chart.

Top 10 in New Deaths as of April 4, 2020:

1- USA: 1,331
2- France: 1,053
3- Spain: 749
4- UK: 708
5- Italy: 681
6- Germany: 169
7- Netherlands: 164
8- Iran: 158
9- Belgium: 140
10- Switzerland: 75

 

I understand that some people would consider the US the 'leading global sponsor of world terrorism', but didn't imagine you would be one of them. Sorry if I offended you by giving you the estimates from the US government's Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty/Radio Farda on the number of people infected and who have died from the Coronavirus in Iran, based on their 'exclusive' investigation of the issue.

As for 'word salads', I tried to invite you to a visual tour of Iran through Google Earth-Iran so you wouldn't be bothered either by my word salads or the vomit of lies and propaganda you are exposed to constantly about Iran.

The fact is that you don't appear interested in the truth, but only that which supports your a priori assumptions and past statements, which is why having a conversation with you is very difficult. The divide that matters the most, in fact, for me revolves around exactly whether someone is interested in truth or not? Regardless of political affiliation and interest, as long as someone is interested in being truly guided by wherever facts, truth, reason and evidence takes them, and isn't trying to force the answers into some a priori assumptions about things, talking to them will always teach me something and I hope talking to me will do the same for them.

 

So, not sure who is accusing you of writing a word salad, but it's someone I put on ignore during my "purge the idiots," tour a couple of days ago.

If that helps - putting the willfully ignorant on ignore during this crisis is good for the soul, and keeps trolling to zilch.

Your high quality posts are appreciated. Truly.

 

Wacht am Rhein!

 

How many days now since the model was LAST updated?

Updating the model DATA should not be a difficult task.

Changing the CODE BEHIND the model and then TESTING those changes is much more likely to be the reason for this delay IMO. If they are doing that they need to be honest about it otherwise they must have a credible excuse for failing to keep the "official" model up to date.

 

We should be so lucky as to have a COMPETENT LEADER like Merkel in charge during a Pandemic!

 

No, I never implied that they should be denied that information.

But identifying Covid mortalities first and foremost based on their underlying conditions both a) suggests that the virus is somehow less lethal overall and b) encourages riskier behavior by those who lack underlying conditions. And both of those points would be occurring precisely at the wrong time, i.e. the early stages of a pandemic.

 

The website fivethirtyeight has a really good write up about how raw case numbers are almost useless without a discussion about testing rates and I think the new data point from worldofmeters (and the points you raise here) are perfect illustrations of that point.

Here's the article: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/coronavirus-case-counts-are-meaningless/

The fact that the Philippines has a positive testing rate of 55% is insane, roughly 15% higher than 2nd place. With a population of 105 million and a current confirmed case count of 3094, unless they are doing absurdly well at identifying just a monstrous percentage of the population that need testing, then the number of raw cases should be exponentially higher. Of course they are not testing enough.

The list of countries which have tested less than 10,000 times and yet have a positive rate of greater than 10% (Philippines, Algeria, Dominican Republic, Indonesia, Serbia, Panama, Ukraine, Argentina, and Croatia) are all places where the confirmed case count should likely be significantly higher.

On the flip side, Russia has supposedly tested over 600,000 times? More than South Korea and 3rd only to the US and Germany, but somehow has a positive rate that is 10 points lower than even Germany and ~18 points lower than the US? Get the **** out of here.

 

I suspect that they are changing the model because there was a press conference with the dire prediction to "expect a lot of death"!

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/world/coronavirus-news.html#link-a621bfa

The original IMHE model treated the nation as a single entity.

The reality is that we are going to end up with MULTIPLE hotspots all at different stages and different peaks.

The hard work being done by the members participating in this thread has predicted this eventually and now we are probably going to see the IMHE model updated to provide more accurate information on each of the hotspots and a combined overall model.

What this means is that each area needs to flatten their own curve in order for it to work on a nation wide scale. A second consequence is that if we have multiple hotspots raging like NY is right now then there is definitely going to be a dire shortage of medical personal and PPE's to keep them safe.

This is a long way from over, unfortunately.

 

Good morning, PFers,

HERE the numbers from last night midnight as I went to bed (Germany, GMT +2).

Now here the numbers for the start of day, April 5th, 2020 (10:42 AM GMT +2):




As you can see, we crossed the 1.2 million mark in the middle of the night. It is very likely that we will cross over 1.3 million today.

And a look-back:



Notice that I highlighted in red and with arrows the totals for 2020-03-027 and for 2020-04-004 (last night). 559,389 * 2 =1,186,778. So, you can see that within an 8-day time-frame, the numbers slightly more than doubled.

You will note that the entire entry for 2020-03-028 is completely highlighted in blue. It is part of a doubling have have measured 2020-02-027, 2020-03-015, 2020-03-022, 2020-03-028 and then yesterday. The time-frame for the the doubling from 2020-03-022 to 03-028 was only six days. It looks as if the total from 2020-03-028 (331,367) may double today and if not today, it will definitely double tomorrow. In order for it to double, that would mean 1,322,734. We are currently at 1,203,966. Yesterday, we added 101,090 new COVID-19 positive cases, a 9.23% growth rate. If that growth rate holds today, then:

1,196,097 * 0.0936 = 111,955 new cases. 1,196,097 + 111,955 = 1,308,051, so the doubling will probably be tomorrow.

Why is that important? Well, if the time-frame for each doubling takes longer, then the curve is slowing some. Still, even if the curve slows to a doubling every ten days instead of every 6 or 8 days, that still means THREE doublings a month, times 4 months (April, May, June, July) = 12 doublings.

What would yesterday's 1,196,097 look like after 12 doublings? Well....

1,196,097 * 2 = 2,392,194
2,392,194 * 2 = 4,784,388
4,784,388 * 2 = 9,568,766
9,568,766 * 2 = 19,137,552
19,137,552 * 2 = 38,275,104
38,275,104 * 2 = 76,550,208
76,550,208 * 2 = 153,100,406
153,100,406 * 2 = 306,200,832
306,200,832 * 2 = 612,401,464
612,401,464 * 2 = 1,224,803,328
1,224,803,328 * 2 = 2,449,606,656
2,449,606,656 * 2 = 4,899,213,312

12 doublings at a rate of 10 day intervals = 4.9 BILLION COVID-19 positive cases by the beginning of August.

That is NOT a projection. It is an extrapolation based on a fixed time-frame.

But I bet that many thought that when we started on this thread with about 160,000 cases that no one would be seeing numbers in 7 digits, and yet, here we are.

And what is 5.38% of 4.9 billion? 264 million dead is what that could mean.

 

Everything, from the positive to the negative critique in this article is absolutely spot-on. I can personally attest to this.

It is true that a huge amount of people who mixed into the carneval crowd from 02-22 to 02-27 came back from what germans call "Wintersport", usually, skiing either in Austria or in Switzerland. 2 of my clients tested positive for COVID-19 immediately after returning from Ischgl, which is a skiing attraction for the rich and famous in Germany.I just missed the bullet on that one because the one client was supposed to have an appointment with me the day after coming back, however, she cancelled because she was not feeling well and she herself told me that she had suspicion that it was the Coronavirus.

BTW, I know of Prof. Streeck, who is mentioned in the article. Hendrik is a good guy, has a stressful job even in good times. He is the director of Virology at the Uniklinik in Bonn. And he is very young for such a high-drive position, I think, 42 or 43. He is known for groundbreaking continuing HIV-research, which has added to Bonn's elegant resume. The school that was referred to as having been shut-down right away was the International School in the Kennedyalle close to the Rheinaue, between Bonn and Bad Godesberg. I usually drive by that school at least 2 times a week. And my daughter knows the family that was infected because the 13-year odl who got COVID-19 went on an inter-school project with my daughter. Yes, this is how small the world is.

-Stat

 

LOL....

 

Dr, Birx has been talking almost daily that we have to take the social distancing and stay home recommendations to protect the weak and vulnerable so that we don't overwhelm and crash the health system. The task force has told us many times that the weak and vulnerable are older people with other health issues and anyone who has other health issues. Diabetes, Lung Disease, Cancer, Immunodeficiency, Heart Disease, Hypertension, Asthma, Kidney Disease, and GI/Liver Disease are the publicized complicating issues.

Generally, you could say that anyone who is morbidly obese has a high likelihood of having one or more of conditions: diabetes, heart disease and high blood pressure. Having multiple other health conditions a person increased the likelihood they will die if they get infected with Coronavirus.

Someone posted a chart here a couple days showing that people with chronic kidney disease were showing to have the highest mortality rates.

Look at CDC data on chronic kidney disease in the U.S.

If you have kidney disease, you're more likely to have heart disease and high blood pressure. 50% of people don't know they have weak kidneys.

https://www.cdc.gov/kidneydisease/publications-resources/2019-national-facts.html

 

Actually, "Die Wacht am Rhein" is a military march from the 1st world war and I am not sure what in the hell it would have to do with this thread about COVID-19.

Hmmm....

There's humor. And there is ignorance.

I'll let the readers decide for themselves.

Meanwhile, if you have something of value to contribute, it is always appreciated.

But friends of mine are dying this very day and I am absolutely not in the mood for snark.

Furthermore, I would bet that many, many millions of people are not really in the mood for snark right now.

 

There's the rub right there. In terms of spread of the disease, indeed the hotspots are showing different levels of intensity. But if not all Americans adhere to the same guidelines, consistently, then too many asymptomatic people will slip through the cracks and the thing will spread all over again.

 

Actually, multiple times on this thread I have pointed out, very pointedly, that the numbers are what they are. We can't make statistics out of numbers that do not exist. And yes, the veracity of testing rates really does play a role.

And yet, in spite of that, for 3 months now, we are seeing a mortality rate between 4.0-5.5% every day, based on the exact death count / exact number of positives, regardless from which combination of countries the information is coming.

The USA is doing a middling job of testing, the South Koreans and the Germans have done excellent work in testing. The Brits have done an absolutely crappy job in testing and it is showing in high deaths every single day. I have been harping non-stop since beginning this thread that Russia (and a number of former Russian Federation states), India, Turkey (at the time), Pakistan, Indonesia, Venezuela and Brasil were certainly simply lying about COVID-19 and now the hens have come home to roost.

In short: it is what it is.

 

Good point!

Anyone fleeing from a hotspot is essentially just carrying the virus to another future hotspot.

Yes, it is a pain in the butt to not be able to go to the mall or the movies or hang out with friends but this is 2020 and you can do ALL of those things VIRTUALLY nowadays. You can shop online and you can watch movies with your friends and you can facetime them too.

In essence there are NO EXCUSES!

If we Americans want this to END we just need to suck it up and be ADULTS for however long it takes.

 

Absolutely. Which is why every human on the planet must take this thing seriously in order to prevent as many of the vulnerable among us from dying. Those who don't are truly being inhumane.

Also, there really does seem to be (and this is not just anecdotal) a rising number of young, very healthy people with no pre-conditions who have contracted the virus and died very quickly. It begs to ask if the amount of viral load that one is beseiged with in the moment that the virus sucessfully enters the body plays a role, or not. Logic would dictate that the higher the viral load, the more cells that can exponentially reproduce all at once, but I have seen no hard research on this yet. Have you?

 

In 1944, the Americans, especially the ones at the front of the ships unloading at Normandy, knew very instinctively that being there meant they were going to die that day and that the only way to successfully capture the beaches would be over the dead bodies of many from the front lines who literally served as human shields. That is fact. Eisenhower knew it. Churchill knew it. Those people were true heros because they gave their lives so that we could smash nazism and fascism in Europe.

In 2020, we are being asked to stay indoors, catch a couple of extra streamed movies, pop popcorn indoors and stay away from others in order to be heros and avoid having a pile of dead bodies in front of us.

What a difference 2 or 3 generations can make.