Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

April 1st is the latest data. Yesterday, there was a banner saying check back on the 4th for the latest updates (which was yesterday). There are no updates and the banner of when to expect updates has been removed.

Dr. Birx said a couple things late last week that made me think that when updates come in, the data will be worse than expected. She said that Americans are not doing enough social distancing. She also said that 50% of 1.3 million tests had not been reported yet.

By yesterday, the task force was saying that what we're doing is making a difference, so in 3-4 days the message went from "not doing enough" (negative outcome) to "making a difference" (positive outcome). Things are changing so quickly that it's not totally unbelievable that behavior would change radically in a few days as people get scared.

Anyway, code changes aren't necessarily nefarious. If they've found any of a multitude of underlying assumptions and variables in the original model to be incorrect, those should be corrected.

 

That is a LOT of unreported test results.

 

Yes, there was one article I posted about viral "dose", or how many virus particles one inhales would cause a much more severe case of the virus. That's why doctors/nurses who are treating COVID patients every day are at significant risk. Even with PPE, they are being exposed constantly to the sickest of the infected for multiple hours per day.

As far as the general public, even the young who are dying appear to have tell-tale underlying conditions.

You see that very few people of any age are perfectly healthy when they got infected. (Although I commented on the high number of underlying conditions "pending" cases yesterday. Even if all of those "pendings" moved to "no underlying conditions" the vast majority would still show to have underling conditions.

New York City mortality update:

 

660,000 tests with no reports. I assume she meant that the tests were used, analyzed, but results had not been reported to CDC. That may have been an incorrect assumption.

Two other possibilities:
The sent out 1.3 million tests, and 660,000 have not even been used yet.
They've been used but are awaiting analysis and reporting.

I'd have to go back to that task force meeting to listen again to exactly what she said. I'm pretty sure that she said 1.3 million had been "run", but she doesn't have reports back on 660,000, about 50%.

On Friday, my boss told me that his girlfriend's son was tested the previous week and they were supposed to have results last Monday, but still did not on Friday.

The bottom line is that there's a logjam somewhere in the system for whatever reason.

 

I did not imply that the changes were for "nefarious" purposes.

All I want is an explanation for NOT providing data as promised. In the private sector a failure to provide critical KPI's (Key Performance Indicators) is frowned upon and depending upon the severity of the failure and information can even be a justification for being fired. In this instance we are talking about a life and death Pandemic. So yes, We the People are entitled to an EXPLANATION as to WHY the data is being withheld at this crucial juncture.

We already know that the numbers are going to be bad, it is just how bad that is being withheld.

 

This is almost certainly the case given by the very high percentage of doctors, nurses and auxiliary staff working in ICU and HCU that have died who, when exposed, are exposed to much higher viral loads than the general public.

This is one of the reasons on a suggestion of exposing people to very small doses might be better in the long run, very much on the principle of how vaccines work, but using a live virus with the obvious risks and until an actual vaccine is developed

 

I think that the UK are only accurately reporting deaths now

 

The model they have out there indicates "predict a lot of deaths" starting now, so that has not changed. The messaging yesterday about "things are going to get really bad the next week or two weeks" is exactly where the model shows that we are entering the peak right around today and the next 7-10 days deaths will climb daily until we hit a peak around April 15th.

The model is broken down from the national average, to a model for each of the 50 states (plus Washington D.C. I believe). So every state does have a different peak time predicted already. Changes to the 52 models are "tweaked" as they get more real data (includes the hot spot outbreaks in certain cities) plus they recalculate based on any new ordinances with the dates for shut downs, travel limitations, school closures, etc.

We really should not be surprised if we hit the 2,644 deaths per day on April 16th, with a floor of 1,461 April 10th (best case - which isn't going to happen) and a ceiling of 4,404 deaths per day on a possible later peak of April 21st (worst case). That is what the April 1st model shows. We really need the updates to see how far off those predictions were, because it does sound like they may have some significant "tweaks" on the next update.

 

Not if people are restricting travel.

Extreme examples:

Someone in a rural area where everyone is on a 1-10,000,000 acre farm/ranch is already "social distanced" to a great degree. There are no tourist attractions in those areas so strangers aren't coming in and people may only leave once a month to go to the nearest community with a grocery store. That grocer is also likely to be located in a small town without a lot of tourists. In a very low-density area, all of the contacts from one case of the virus can easily be traced and everyone quarantined.

The other extreme is obviously New York, a major travel hub, with a high number of migrant workers/students on Visas, many tourist attractions and people are stacked on top of each other in a few square miles. Once there is person-to-person spread, it is impossible to track and quarantine all the "spreaders" There are just too many people.

On the national model (as of April 1st update) 16,090 people in New York are expected to die during the next few months, and mainly in downstate New York where the density is. That accounts for 17.6% of the total deaths predicted in the U.S. By contrast, Vermont, which is low density, low migrant and low in tourism is predicted to peak in May and have a total of 58 deaths across the entire state. That is .06% of the total deaths predicted for the country, the lowest number.

That may explain why some people are insisting that this is "just like the flu" and others are rather terrified. Depending on where you live, either urban or rural, your personal experience of the virus will be very different.

New York will be overwhelmed, some areas will simply be "whelmed", and some areas won't be impacted much.

Just don't travel and wash your hands!

 

Yes, if the data is not updated today, one day late, we do need to know why. We are at the bottom of the roller coaster. Everyone has been seated and we're about to take a steep and fast ride up to the top. We need the updates.

 

Thank you for the update.

Clearly the mortality rate data can't be compared country to country since the denominator is not constant. Countries testing more have lower mortalities and countries only testing when people show up at a hospital when they already cannot breath will have high mortalities. (Of course, that discounts population age, other conditions, population density, and a host of other variables.)

Earlier this morning, I was thinking about Dr. Birx talking about some U.S. hot spots having 35% positives and other areas of the country are well below 10% positives. I got the impression that 10% positive rate is the baseline where the CDC gets worried about a new hot spot forming.

So, adjusting the U.S. denominator at a 10% positive baseline, I took the current U.S cases 312,245 x 10 = 3,122,450. Using that as the denominator and dividing into the current reported deaths 8,503 produces a .27% mortality rate. Or more easily, the decimal point moves to the left one place.

 

AMEN

 

Which is it that you are advocating ?? Do not warn those with preconditions or not ?? Which is better in your opinion ??

 

I think the point is that the government has done their best to warn everyone of the signs, symptoms and vulnerable, either directly, or through media since at least early February. It wasn't until about the 3rd or 4th week of February that some city, state and national leaders (and media) were still encouraging people to go out to Mardi Gras, or ChinaTown Lunar Fests, or Broadway shows or whatever made money for their city/state/district, but the warning signs, age and preexisting conditions, were publicized well before then. Certainly by today, April 5th, the vast majority of people have been told who is most vulnerable.

 

That's all good information.

But where is the data driven strong emphasis on exactly what these preconditions are and in what percentage those preconditions have contributed to corona virus deaths. Experts can talk in general terms all day long but when a chart is presented that shows (as it did in Italy where 88% of deaths were those with serious preconditions) the percentage breakdown of each and combinations of those conditions it will get people's attention to a much greater degree. I think that should be repeated and updated in the daily briefings everyday. That IMO will save lives.

I don't understand the arguments that are being presented that more information is a bad thing.

 

My point is that they can do more to raise awareness on the great risk that those with preconditions face. Before the Italian data came out I had a general idea that people with serious preconditions were at greater risk but not that approximately 9 out of 10 deaths resulted from those preconditions combined with corona infection.

We are reminded every day to stay 6 feet apart and wash our hands. Why not remind people everyday that those with preconditions are at most risk and back that up with granular data updates.

 

More information is not a bad thing.

The information that the vast majority of Covid deaths are in those who have preexisting medical conditions (plus age) is out there publically (not just Italy). When you kept bringing up Italy, I think a few people here thought you knew that those statistics are pretty much the same all over the world. Age and those preexisting conditions are killing people. If you didn't know that, then you were not being obtuse or a "troll", as some people immediately accused you of being in the pile-on of insults thrown at you.

To find granular data updates, you have to seek out the information as some of us have been doing with a lot of number crunching and general qualitative research on the topic.

You can't count on media to get real data on the virus. Journalists are attending or watching the daily press briefings, which are long and a bit tedious. Then CNN/MSNBC and others write about everything that was "said wrong" during the briefing. In response, FOX reports on why CNN/MSNBC isn't giving you facts....but they aren't either...they're just criticizing the media on the "other side".

Media is doing a real disservice to the public. If not everyone in the country knows by now that you are most likely to die if you're older and have other medical conditions, it is just further proof that the "news" is nothing more than partisan political opinion. The left and the right media both cherry pick the bad and the good, but they apparently aren't terribly concerned about providing the most very basic information, the facts you need.

Take time to listen to the press briefings and/or read updates from the CDC, where the information you need to know is provided directly and not through some journalist's filter. I know most people don't have the patience or interest in doing that, but it's almost a crime against humanity if people today don't know the very basics of what's going on.

 

I do listen to the daily briefings and the granularity and overall percentages are not being given. The 88% stat from Italy as well as the same relative high percentage but with the precondition breakdown from Dr. Stephen Smith which I posted a few days ago are important but not being quantified. This is what we need:



Does anyone know what percentage of US Corona virus deaths are attributed to serious preconditions with the virus ???

Is there some kind of political correctness going on here which is contributing to this lack of data?

Fox News is the best by far at reporting fair and balanced news on the virus. And have been way out front advocating for hydroxychloromycin which again has and is saving lives. Watch Tucker and Laura sometime. All MSNBC/CNN do is blame the Trump and make excuses for the Red Chinese who are responsible for the ~ 100,000 deaths globally.

 

Some New Yorkers got the drift early March and had over a million laying around and bought a lodge in our area. They moved in a week ago.
That is scary.

 

Ischgl in Austria is a true scandal, apparently they knew that c19 was present. The spread from one party bar was gigantic, all over Western Europe.

 

This is a novel virus, so all data is questionable until the pandemic is over and we get an actual end-count of deaths/cases.

However, a lot of people are using data from China, since they "supposedly" got if under control and are "supposedly" telling the truth.

This is what Chinese data showed after cases stabilized:

Front the analysis of death cases, it emerged that the demographic profile was mainly male, accounting for 2/3, females accounting for 1/3, and is mainly elderly, more than 80% are elderly over 60 years old, and more than 75% had underlying diseases present such as cardiovascular and cardiovascular diseases, diabetes and, in some cases, tumor.

I've seen cities and states reporting on the underlying disease data, but haven't seen a national chart. New York City has been an interesting chart to watch, since they have the highest cases/death, but even their data shows a lot of data pending on whether people had preexisting conditions or not. People who don't go to doctor's very often may have preexisting conditions and not know it. Even with unknowns, the vast majority of deaths do include pre-existing conditions.

 

Right now FDA Commissioner James Hahn is on Maria discussing efforts to create treatments that can develop prophylactic and treatment medications that can bridge the time to when a vaccine is available. Do you see that on CNN ???

Not everyone watches Fox News.

Sorry but I really do not understand the objections to detailed granular mortality data focused on pre conditions. Those pre conditions are not exclusive to the elderly.

 

I stopped watching cable news regularly years ago, unless I want the entertainment. Some information on Fox and CNN can be valuable. I'll watch snippets here and there on YouTube. I do like Sunday Mornings with Maria if I have time to watch particular interviews of interest.

 

Tune in now. They are in the middle of a discussion about hydroxychloroquine which Gov Cuomo has apparently banned for use in NY.

MSNBC recommends that the daily briefings not be televised because they spread disinformation.

 

I haven't had a television in over 10 years. For the most part, only press briefings and other news directly from government are streamed live.

I started reading more.