Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Discussion in 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) News' started by Statistikhengst, Mar 14, 2020.

PF does not allow misinformation. However, please note that posts could occasionally contain content in violation of our policies prior to our staff intervening. We urge you to seek reliable alternate sources to verify information you read in this forum.

Tags:
  1. gnoib

    gnoib Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2019
    Messages:
    5,448
    Likes Received:
    4,075
    Trophy Points:
    113
    In Germany they have approved the first treatments with blood plasma from healed c19 folks.
    Will be interesting to watch how that pans out.
    They have no problem to get the blood, they have been flooded by volunteer donors
     
  2. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2019
    Messages:
    15,050
    Likes Received:
    18,807
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Anyway, it is a fact that the majority of people who are dying have preexisting health issues, and that older people have more preexisting conditions as our immune system breaks down as we age. So we are trying to avoid getting sick to avoid making other people who are vulnerable sick, and possibly killing them.

    Italy and Japan have the highest percentage of elderly in their populations, but the U.S. and Europe are also "pretty old".

    upload_2020-4-5_9-51-8.png



    So then, why is Italy piling up dead bodies and Japan is not?

    You have to look at the health care system and how well or poorly prepared places are to deal with a pandemic.

    We can see that Japan is well prepared, and that Italy (and the U.S.) are ill prepared for hospital beds per 1000 people to help them deal with an unexpected surge of sick people.



    upload_2020-4-5_9-53-1.png




    Italy does have more medical doctors than Japan. Still if thousands of people are getting sick at the same time, 5 doctors per thousand is a strain. The U.S. has between 2-3 doctors per 1000 people. New York is approaching 400 deaths per day, and has thousands showing up sick at hospitals. That will get worse for the next week or two before it gets better.



    upload_2020-4-5_9-56-14.png
     
    Last edited: Apr 5, 2020
  3. truth and justice

    truth and justice Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 5, 2011
    Messages:
    25,730
    Likes Received:
    8,773
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I saw a news report on why Japan has relatively fewer cases and it was pointed out that Japanese people are brought up from childhood to be meticulously clean
     
    Adfundum, Sallyally and LoneStarGal like this.
  4. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Dec 15, 2014
    Messages:
    35,781
    Likes Received:
    8,614
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Okay. But then how can you comment on coverage that you don’t watch?

    I read a lot myself - mostly books.
     
  5. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Dec 15, 2014
    Messages:
    35,781
    Likes Received:
    8,614
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Japan’s culture is built of the concept of shame. If they are told to stay inside they stay inside. In the western world the culture is built on guilt so people act at a level at what they can get away with.
     
  6. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2019
    Messages:
    15,050
    Likes Received:
    18,807
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I'm primarily posting data here that I do watch, plus neutral commentary about the virus.

    Commenting on politicized news from both ends was a brief aside. ;)
     
  7. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2019
    Messages:
    15,050
    Likes Received:
    18,807
    Trophy Points:
    113
  8. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Dec 15, 2014
    Messages:
    35,781
    Likes Received:
    8,614
    Trophy Points:
    113
    What I am saying is that there is a lot of useful and important information that you are missing.
     
  9. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Dec 15, 2014
    Messages:
    35,781
    Likes Received:
    8,614
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Great kicker although I never forgave him for beating my Detroit Lions with his the record 63 yard field goal in 1970. He was sadly diagnosed with dementia in 2012.
     
  10. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2019
    Messages:
    15,050
    Likes Received:
    18,807
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I know. I figured out my first year of college that I could live to be 5000 years old and only have time to learn one iota of the vast quantities of interesting and important information in the world. There's never enough time in one lifetime to learn.
     
  11. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2019
    Messages:
    15,050
    Likes Received:
    18,807
    Trophy Points:
    113
    So this is sort of interesting as far as trackers.

    My city set up a tracker with detail down to the level of zip code. It allows you to click on the zip code for the case count. There are 12 cases in my zip code plus the two adjoining zip codes where I shop for groceries and gasoline.

    I wonder how many cities/counties across the country have set up detailed trackers. Knowing where the cases are is good information.

    upload_2020-4-5_10-42-59.png
     
  12. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Dec 15, 2014
    Messages:
    35,781
    Likes Received:
    8,614
    Trophy Points:
    113
    My county (Solano in California) has a dashboard. One death so far. 85 year old with multiple but unfortunately unspecified pre conditions.
     
    LoneStarGal likes this.
  13. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2015
    Messages:
    6,504
    Likes Received:
    1,646
    Trophy Points:
    113
    This report is from Radio Farda, a branch of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty funded by the US government. It is a good report, largely free of the usual polemics on Iran.

    https://en.radiofarda.com/a/officia...ic-health-or-saving-the-economy/30532535.html
    Officials In Iran Divided Over Coronavirus - Public Health Or Saving The Economy

     
    MrTLegal and LoneStarGal like this.
  14. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2019
    Messages:
    15,050
    Likes Received:
    18,807
    Trophy Points:
    113
    So, clarifying what Dr. Birx said about 660,000 tests out of 1.3 million not be reported yet, I found her quote. Apparently all of the private labs and hospitals were supposed to send their independent reports to the CDC. The FDA/CDC loosened the bureaucratic red tape so that we could test more people through private channels and not have every test directly run/analyzed and reported.

    Now the private labs/hospitals aren't sending their reports in. That's what it sounds like from Birx's quote.

    It's hard to update the national model without any new data. :confused:

    The comment was made Thursday (April 2nd): https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/02/politics/birx-task-force-coronavirus-testing/index.html

    "Birx, one of the top officials on the White House's coronavirus task force, said Thursday that part of the $2 trillion economic stimulus measure that was signed into law by President Donald Trump requires that all tests conducted get reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. But Birx says she has not received that data yet.

    "Well, I'm telling you, I'm still missing 50% of the data from reporting," she said. "I have 660 (thousand) tests reported in. We've done 1.3 million. ... So, we do need to see -- the bill said you need to report. We are still not receiving 100% of the tests." "
     
  15. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2015
    Messages:
    16,793
    Likes Received:
    19,344
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male

    That's pretty criminal of them.
     
    Derideo_Te, LoneStarGal and Sallyally like this.
  16. nobodyspecific

    nobodyspecific Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Apr 4, 2011
    Messages:
    562
    Likes Received:
    741
    Trophy Points:
    93
    I have to question the assumption of 10x total US infections. That would take the positive rate of all tests for the US from 18% down to 1.8%, just below Australia and above only 2 other nations with at least 1K official cases - UAE and Russia. If your goal was to get the US numbers to be at a 10% positive baseline, shouldn't you have done 18/10 x cases? Or 312,245 x 1.8 = 562,041?

    This would yield 1.51% mortality rate, which would be close to the current South Korea mortality rate (1.74%). While I would love to believe the rosy mortality rate of an Iceland, I worry it may be suffering a bit from lack of sample size given their extremely small death total at this point and fact that cases didn't really take off in a significant way until Mar 18. On the positive side, they do have a decent portion of total recoveries, so possibly they will be able to maintain a sub 1% mortality over the long haul, which would be truly great news.
     
    Derideo_Te, LoneStarGal and MrTLegal like this.
  17. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2015
    Messages:
    6,504
    Likes Received:
    1,646
    Trophy Points:
    113
    In my other, Iran related news, I found this report quoting a figure who is by now familiar to all Iranians as he is the spokesman who gives Iran's daily briefings on Coronavirus both somewhat surprising and probably unwise as China is a country with whom Iran has (comparatively speaking) good relations. Of course, given the source of the report, I am sure there is more than a little mischief involved in the headline chosen...

    https://en.radiofarda.com/a/iran-of...onavirus-figures-a-bitter-joke-/30532450.html
    Iran Official Calls China's Coronavirus Numbers A 'Bitter Joke'
     
    Adfundum and Sallyally like this.
  18. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2019
    Messages:
    15,050
    Likes Received:
    18,807
    Trophy Points:
    113
    So that's a little confusing. The first line says that Rouhani announced today that low-risk businesses could resume a week from now, (but not in Tehran)....but people are crowding public transit and going back to work today (in Tehran), a week or two ahead of the announced date?

    Am I reading that right?

    It's easy to understand that people will rebel and go back to work, sooner or later, if the government doesn't stop the monthly bills and expenses from piling up and doesn't send people money to cover those bills. People would rather die from the virus quickly than starve to death slowly if that's the choice.
     
  19. Adfundum

    Adfundum Moderator Staff Member Donor

    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2018
    Messages:
    7,683
    Likes Received:
    4,171
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Actually, the highest rate of infection is coming from a much younger group. The highest number of deaths is in the older group. In other words, the younger group is the carrier.

    I have to ask why you insist on referencing the preconditions? What point are you trying to make about that group?
     
  20. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2015
    Messages:
    6,504
    Likes Received:
    1,646
    Trophy Points:
    113
    You read it right. To be clear, there are certain businesses and a growing number of government offices which aren't supposed to be closed even in Tehran despite others being told to remain closed for another week, but many of those who weren't supposed to open up their businesses have done so anyway. When state television asks why they aren't abiding by the closures, they do have a good excuse: the workers and lower income people say they don't have the savings to continue being quarantined and they aren't receiving much in the form of government assistance either. The businessmen, on the other hand, cite the payments they have to make and usually respond to the reporters asking them: are you going to pay my bills?
    While Iran does have some relief packages and programs, given the overall sanctions and issues Iran faces as a result of the US campaign of "maximum pressure", it can't afford to throw as much money as it would need to cover the wages and income that many people in Iran are losing by not working.
     
  21. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2019
    Messages:
    15,050
    Likes Received:
    18,807
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I don't know what extra rigmarole the CDC wants to do with the data. I expect they want to filter through some sort of quality control filter to identify double-counts or false positives/negatives.

    We can see on various trackers that there were in fact close to 1.3 million tests on Thursday, when Dr. Birx made the statement. Whatever the data modelers at the federal level need to do to verify results by state and county/local level isn't happening.

    I wonder if the model through April 1st included only tests performed and verified directly through a State government labs or the Federal lab at CDC, and now they are trying to include all data.

    My Texas dashboard reads that 70,938 tests have been run: State labs have conducted 5,312 and private labs 65,626.

    If 10-12 times more tests are being conducted privately, we need that data.
     
    Derideo_Te likes this.
  22. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2019
    Messages:
    15,050
    Likes Received:
    18,807
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I was thinking that using deaths/(cases x 10) might be a better indicator of US infections and mortality, than using deaths/positive-cases to adjust for testing people only after they are sick enough to seek help. I picked up the 10% positive from Birx's comment that they weren't too concerned about positives running under 10% in some areas but became concerned when areas started testing over 10% positive.

    It was a back of the envelope idea, not scientific at all....and I probably needed another cup of coffee. :confused:
     
  23. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Dec 15, 2014
    Messages:
    35,781
    Likes Received:
    8,614
    Trophy Points:
    113
    They are more at risk.
     
  24. Adfundum

    Adfundum Moderator Staff Member Donor

    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2018
    Messages:
    7,683
    Likes Received:
    4,171
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    It's not that more information is a bad thing, it's that the information is already out there. Also, those of us who would be considered part of that high risk group are keenly aware of the risks--have been for years.
     
    Derideo_Te and Sallyally like this.
  25. Adfundum

    Adfundum Moderator Staff Member Donor

    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2018
    Messages:
    7,683
    Likes Received:
    4,171
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Good info. One thing about Japan is (or at least was) that wearing masks and sometimes gloves has long been a part of their culture. If you are sick, you wear a mask to prevent the spread. In other words, they recognize their personal role in the spread of disease--something much of the rest of the world doesn't.
     

Share This Page