Here's when COVID-19 is now projected to peak in Oregon

Discussion in 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) News' started by Lee S, Apr 7, 2020.

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  1. Lee S

    Lee S Moderator Staff Member Past Donor

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    In the linked article, the expected death toll for covid19 in Oregon is going to be 171 individuals.

    https://www.kgw.com/article/news/he...pril/283-1062d11a-dfe1-4d9c-88f1-426c895b1f13

    This number was downgraded from the original projection of 551 by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.

    The death toll from the flu in Oregon was 572 in 2017, a pretty normal flu season. https://www.livestories.com/statistics/oregon/influenza-flu-pneumonia-deaths-mortality

    This means that the death toll from coronavirus is going to be only 29% of the death toll from the normal flu. So if coronavirus is going to be one-third as deadly as the normal flu, why are we shutting everything down?

    The thing is, people die. It is a natural part of everyone's life. In the United States, 52,050 people die every single day from something other than Covid 19. If it makes sense to shut down one's economy to prevent even one Covid19 death, then shouldn't we shut down everything for every single flu, which is three times as deadly as Covid19?

    And what does this say about the gullibility of the American public when they can be stampeded by government experts over something that is a third less deadly than the seasonal flu?

    Perhaps it is time to stop the wrecking of our economy while small business owners still have a chance to recover from an ill-advised and uninformed shutdown. Yes there may or may not be more deaths if the shutdown ends sooner rather than later, but a small number of deaths (in comparison to the flu) is a lesser harm to our society than a small number of deaths plus a wrecked economy.
     
  2. RP12

    RP12 Well-Known Member

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    That and we are led to believe that models are gospel and if you dont want to live your life by them you are a denier.
     
  3. btthegreat

    btthegreat Well-Known Member

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    Maybe the downgraded model number presupposes that Oregon will continue the practices it instituted weeks ago to reduced infection rates. According to your own links, we did the smart things early enough that we sent a ton of our ventilators to states that did not catch this as early.

    Its working, Lee. Let the scientists tell us and Gov. Brown, because they are listening to the real expert here, the virus itself. Leave it in place.
     
    Last edited: Apr 7, 2020
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  4. Lee S

    Lee S Moderator Staff Member Past Donor

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    Is it working or was the risk of coronavirus vastly and hysterically overrated in the first place? I have checked death statistics from about everywhere versus deaths from the flu, and the coronavirus hasn't surpassed normal flu deaths anywhere. And blind devotion to those who wear white lab coats is simply dangerous to society; evidently a greater danger than the coronavirus itself.
     
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  5. Jestsayin

    Jestsayin Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Last week the models were projecting as many as half a million deaths in the US.
    At some point, people will stop believing models and polls. We will then all be better off.
     
  6. Louisiana75

    Louisiana75 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Yep, as of last night, it's now projected to be 49k to 81k deaths in US and some scientist say lower.
     
  7. modernpaladin

    modernpaladin Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Our 'confirmed cases' in my county went from 10 to 13 over the weekend, and then jumped to 12 today (recovered and dead are still 0). So I guess 'confirmed' doesn't mean what it used to...

    Either way, 12 or 13 is still about 1 in 3200, compared to some areas around Seattle that are 1/600. Those areas certainly warranted a shutdown. Our area did not. And quite frankly, we didn't. Some stores cut their hours, but the only place I've seen closed was an antiques boutique.

    Shutting the whole country down for this was as unwise as the folks in big cities still going to church, having parties and licking canned goods at the grocery.
     
    Last edited: Apr 7, 2020
  8. btthegreat

    btthegreat Well-Known Member

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    I am not going to replace my devotion to the guys with white lab coats, with devotion to some poster on this forum with some flu stats he has 'gathered' but who hasn't got the scientific education in virology and epidemiology and the field experience to interpret it.

    The virus determines its schedule, not our 401-k's. If our numbers are low unde social distancing, then maybe we should call those men in the lab coats and congratulate them.
     
    Last edited: Apr 7, 2020
  9. Lee S

    Lee S Moderator Staff Member Past Donor

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    In other words, a normal flu season or something less severe. If you have the time, could you get us a link for that. Those who oppose the stampede are eventually going to be called anti-science, so if we can provide the links from reputable scientists up front, then I hope that we will fend off those claims.
     
  10. Kranes56

    Kranes56 Banned

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    I'm glad to hear that it will be going down. That's good to hear, and hopefully a sign for everyone else it will be going down.

    As for why everything closed down, what would have happened if Oregon didn't practice social distancing?
     
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  11. btthegreat

    btthegreat Well-Known Member

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    That is not the question some folks want you to ask. They want to compare 'death rates' with a virus where there was a vaccine for several types they are including in the measurement, and where social distancing did not factor in at all. declining model forecasts under social distancing is being used as a justification to end social distancing. This is about money lost, not lives lost.
     
    Last edited: Apr 7, 2020
  12. RP12

    RP12 Well-Known Member

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    There are vaccines for strains of Influenza there is no vaccine for all strains.. its why they guess regionally every year.. Some years they guess better then others....
     
  13. Kranes56

    Kranes56 Banned

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    That's why they compare to the 1918 Influenza pandemic.
     
  14. Lee S

    Lee S Moderator Staff Member Past Donor

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    The honest answer is that nobody knows. I would be cautious about paying credence to politicians and government experts who pat themselves on the back while declaring victory at the miniscule cost of thousands of bankrupt businesses in their heroic social distancing and shutdown orders. If they are honest, they may say a shutdown helped somewhat, but they need to acknowlege the damage they did, as well.
     
  15. modernpaladin

    modernpaladin Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Maybe I missed it, but I haven't seen anyone question the efficacy or wisdom of social distancing. The crtique, afaics, is of forcing businesses to shut down entirely when enforcing masks, customer limits and wide personal space may have sufficed, as its beginning to appear that it would've in many of the less densely populated areas of the country where shutdowns are intensifying economic distress.
     
    Last edited: Apr 7, 2020
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  16. ModCon

    ModCon Well-Known Member

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    OP, you're asking relevant questions and making good points. However, in the city of New York alone, more than 4k people have died in a very short span of time. This isn't the flu or common cold.

    We will restart our economy. People will get back to work. Things will get back to normal. But for the time being we need to pause. Individuals need to do their part by not becoming carriers of this virus until the medical infrastructure can handle the waves of infected people.

    I myself suspect that I've already been infected, but I'm not going to gamble with someone else's life by living as if there's not a global pandemic happening right now. This wierd reality we're living in is temporary but necessary.

    Please folks, just stay home unless there's no choice. You may save a life by simply doing nothing.
     
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  17. btthegreat

    btthegreat Well-Known Member

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    Well that was a whole different world then. The percentage of Americans living in urban areas was far smaller, and the population was far smaller. 'Social distancing' on the small farms across this country was the norm outside of the major cities like New York, Chicago etc. The road and highway system did not exist, nor did gas stations, beauty parlors or many restaurants, or clothing stores. There were no memory care centers,, assisted living and damn few nursing homes or prisons either comparitively. Child care centers did not exist .

    public schools schools beyond the grade school years, were nonexistent throughout much of the states until the forties and 50's. in !918 we required them schools to teach them to read and write, and basically sent them all home after 6th grade half learned that in one room school houses, rather than these 100- 1500 student enclosures.

    The disabled stayed home, the developmentally delayed stayed home, the blind and deaf stayed home, the mentally ill stayed home outside a few exceptions in the large metropolis which were large enough to have 'sanitoriums'.
     
    Last edited: Apr 7, 2020
  18. Kranes56

    Kranes56 Banned

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    True but we can look to the past and figure out what would have happened. That's why scientists compare it to the 1918 Influenza pandemic in terms of mortality rates. You're not wrong to think about this in terms of damage as well. Not just the businesses but think about all the abusive families that had to live together during the quarantine. It's not easy. That's why we need to rethink policy about diseases. Some scientists are forecasting with global warming we could see a return of long lost diseases.What would happen then?This virus doesn't mean to ignore the experts, but understand them and figure out what's going on. No offense, but a poster on PF might not have the same insight into government opinion that a government expert might have.

    So social distancing doesn't work because businesses implemented social distancing?
     
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  19. Jestsayin

    Jestsayin Well-Known Member Past Donor

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  20. Kranes56

    Kranes56 Banned

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    Right but you can take that into account and make models around that. Look at specific businesses, or maybe people who went to public places and compare it to today. It's harder to do yes, but it's doable.
     
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  21. ModCon

    ModCon Well-Known Member

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    I completely get what you're saying, but the problem is that if you give the virus an opportunity, it's going to take it. I mean... that's the story of viruses... they're opportunistic dirtbags... far worse than a deadbeat welfare recipient could ever hope to be.
     
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  22. modernpaladin

    modernpaladin Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Thats not even close to what I said. Shut downs are economically dangerous overkill where social distancing would've sufficed, is basically what I said.
     
  23. btthegreat

    btthegreat Well-Known Member

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    Do you see the word 'some' in my post?. I put it there myself!
     
  24. Kranes56

    Kranes56 Banned

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    Right but maybe I'm not understanding how you're using social distancing. Because to me it also includes things like shutting down public places like libraries, restaurants etc.
     
  25. btthegreat

    btthegreat Well-Known Member

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    delete.
     
    Last edited: Apr 7, 2020

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