Population Density and Pandemics

Discussion in 'Science' started by drluggit, Mar 23, 2020.

  1. drluggit

    drluggit Well-Known Member

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    It seems the more we learn, the more we forget about those lessons. As it is with so many. the drive to be the "biggest". the "best". the (fill in the blank) that allows folks to suspend their normal instincts to engage in incredibly risk filled behaviors. And so it plays out for us in living color over the past couple months.

    Even with inoculations. even with improved diet and hygiene, we see rapid contagion transfers among highly close dense populations. From confinement on cruise ships. to geolocational proximity and density to outbreak centers. We see the results. We just seem to have forgotten all of the rules about the dangers of high population density. And it shows. Places with populations that are tightly packed together are the ones currently sustaining the worst outbreaks. Distance. as always. is the cure to an outbreak like this to die out. And yet. folks haven't chosen to distance themselves. even when required for their own survival.

    The promises of improved economic successes from density are undercut substantively by the risk and the danger of epidemic outbreaks. We've known this for centuries and yet. so many folks find it essential for their happiness to ensconce themselves in living conditions. and situations that then put them in real risk of harm from these places or activities.

    Historically, we also know that the civil society starts to erode as panic in dense places takes hold. While I hold out hope that asking folks simply not to interact in these highly risk prone areas. it really is going to depend on just how serious folks who live in those environments take these warnings. and how deeply they feel the need for preserving their own lives.
     
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  2. jay runner

    jay runner Banned

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    When any contagious disease breaks out on a cruise ship that's the last place you want to be. It's basically a can of sardines.
     
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  3. drluggit

    drluggit Well-Known Member

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    I was thinking of all of those high rise buildings and their density as well.... Places like NYC or for that matter, every large metropolitan area around the world where folks live so tightly packed together.
     
  4. One Mind

    One Mind Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I could not handle the density after living in it before coming back tito rural Ms. City people are not the kind of people I care to live around. ]

    People like manure are great when spread out over the country. But when piled up they smell like **** !
     
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  5. Robert E Allen

    Robert E Allen Banned

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    It's folly to think that people will avoid risk for the sake of pleasure or convenience.

    If people would avoid pleasurable risky behavior because the consequences were too great they wouldn't have premarital sex or drink and drive, or use dangerous drugs, or smoke or rick climb, or........

    Fact is some things are more important to people than saftey and every so often the consequences come due.
     
  6. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    This fear based "analysis" is total nonsense.

    People live where the employment is.

    Corporations need each other and proximity to the kind of labor they require.
     
  7. HereWeGoAgain

    HereWeGoAgain Banned

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    So technically it would be worse to actually be in a can of sardines
     
  8. Pycckia

    Pycckia Well-Known Member

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    Prison has to be worse.
     
  9. jay runner

    jay runner Banned

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    Prison is the worst and is supposed to be the worst. The intelligent avoid the behaviors that cause them to go to prison. The less than intelligent do not avoid those behaviors.
     
  10. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    No, we have no intent to make sickness and death part of the prison experience. Our nation is totally opposed to that.

    Beyond that, you may have another misunderstanding here.

    Those incarerated include individuals who have not been tried, let alone convicted or sentenced.
     
  11. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    Actually, it can be safer in many ways as the only people who frequently come and go from there are those that work there. The prisoners are already largely confined.

    Prisons are actually one of the safest, unless the virus makes it way into the population. Then it can spread rapidly.

    So it is both, one of the safest from the pathogen, but the most susceptible if it makes it's way in.
     
  12. Pycckia

    Pycckia Well-Known Member

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    Prisoners get visitors.
     
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  13. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    Prisoners also get guards and in many cases get food service and other contact.
     
  14. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    I know, I have visited my son many times when he is in jail.

    He was always on the other side of a glass wall, we only talked through a telephone. Absolutely no physical contact.
     
  15. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    Did I not say "those who work there"? And most never see those individuals.
     
  16. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    I taught math in a state prison once. Also, there were various meetings where prisoners and those from the outside would attend, talk to each other, etc. This included lifers - they had a "Lifer's Club" that welcomed people from the outside and club membership was open to any prisoner who had a 20 year sentence or higher, including violent offenders - except those in isolation at the time. They had a "7 steps to freedom" club where those nearing release went over aspects of living outside and what each member was planning to do, what steps were important to staying clean - a little like alanon.. My father was a professor and my mother was an RN (retired). They attended a number of these various meetings - at least once a week. My father taught classes and my mother was helpful as well, including identifying health concerns.

    There is conjugal visitation now, as I understand it.

    It's true that there weren't guards all around - like in my class. But, any movement from one place to another (to/from class, outdoors areas, etc.) included several guards, and there were official personell at meetings such as the lifer's club.

    I know the model you speak of, but it's not all that goes on.

    I'm sure some of that is shut down. But, I find it really hard to believe that it's all shut down such that there is no outside contact, even with guards and general operations where prisoners take part.
     
  17. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    That kind of visitation is rare, and only in select prisons with select inmates.

    And outside contact is rather limited. Not as on nobody gets in, but very restricted and very few get in.

    They use inmates to clean the base I am assigned to, and they have already been locked down in their dorms.
     
  18. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    I'm talking about a state prison - housing the worst offenders in the state.

    And, your "select prisoners" thing is nonsense for two reasons. First, I could attemd Lifer's Club meetings that included serial killers and other violent offenders. I had conversations while sitting next to inmates. What "certain prisoners" do you think were disalloed, besides those in solitary confinement at the time of the meeting such as those on death row? Beyond that, ANY contact is good enough to transmit communicable disease. It doesn't have to be large numbers.

    I'm familiar only with prison (which was the topic) - not bases, by which I assume you mean military bases that may have prisoners. Also, jails tend to have less facility for separation, and they include people who have not been convicted of anything.
     
  19. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    Actually, the "worst offenders" normally do not even go to State Prisons. They go to Federal Prisons.

    And there are vast differences between even State Prisons. My son for example has been to the State Men's Prison in Chino. Which is a far cry from being sent to say San Quentin.

    Most "State Prisons" do not house "the worst offenders". They simply house offenders who are sentenced to longer periods of time than what a County Prison can hold. City is generally for 60 days or less, County is generally 1 year or less, State is for periods of over 1 year. Even a 3 striker with multiple murders in their record will be sentenced to County jail if convicted of a crime that requires sentencing of 1 year or less.

    And inversely, a person convicted of a "3 strikes" of minor assaults can very well find themselves in a Supermax facility, not based on their c rime but on their sentencing.

    You must not confuse the two. And even in State and Federal prisons, you have differing levels of incarceration. Deuel State Prison in California is a "State Penitentiary", just as is San Quentin. But it is a light security facility, which even has a dairy on the grounds, and Tuolumne, which is also a minimum security facility. It is not unusual to find those convicted of murder working the fire lines here in California. Of course, those are people normally associated with "3rd Degree", not hardened gangbangers with multiple murders in their records. But they are still murderers.
     
  20. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    Your post means nothing to me, as I conversed with prisoners in Lifer's Club meetings in state prison. And, that included mass murderers.

    Beyond that, there are people in detention who have not been tried or sentenced - that have not been found guilty.
     
  21. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    And that would have been a State Prison that held such prisoners. Hence, the difference between say Chino and San Quentin. San Quentin is a State Prison, and houses the worst criminals in California. Including many mass murderers.

    And people in "detention" are not held in State Prison. They are held in County Jail. Jails are for people serving short terms (generally under 1 year), or those awaiting or undergoing trial. Only after convicted are they sent to Prison.
     
  22. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    I'm not sure of your point here.
    I stated "beyond that"as a method of introducing a different level of incarceration.

    The overall point remains - we have large numbers of people incarcerated in the US, and they are not being sequestered from contact with the outside world. They include people at high risk due to age and preexisting conditions. And, we have people in detention who have not been found guilty as well as the guilty who have not been sentenced or have active appeals.

    So, we have the ACLU battling these cases in several states.
     

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