Democratic Primary predictions

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by CrepedCrusader, Jan 27, 2020.

  1. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2012
    Messages:
    2,219
    Likes Received:
    134
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Gender:
    Male
    Vermont
    Gabbard 1
    Biden 5
    Warren 8
    Bloomberg 10
    Sanders 76

    Democrats Abroad

    Gabbard 1
    Bloomberg 2
    Warren 3
    Sanders 44
    Biden 50

    Alabama

    Gabbard 1
    Bloomberg 7
    Sanders 15
    Warren 17
    Biden 58

    Arkansas

    Gabbard 1
    Sanders 15
    Bloomberg 22
    Warren 30
    Biden 32

    North Carolina

    Gabbard 1
    Warren 12
    Sanders 15
    Bloomberg 16
    Biden 56

    Maine

    Gabbard 3
    Bloomberg 10
    Biden 18
    Warren 26
    Sanders 43

    Massachusetts

    Gabbard 4
    Biden 18
    Bloomberg 21
    Sanders 27
    Warren 30

    Minnesota

    Gabbard 5
    Warren 14
    Bloomberg 15
    Biden 27
    Sanders 39

    Tennessee

    Gabbard 2
    Warren 11
    Sanders 15
    Bloomberg 24
    Biden 48

    Texas

    Gabbard 1
    Warren 20
    Bloomberg 23
    Sanders 26
    Biden 30

    California

    Gabbard 1
    Warren 13
    Biden 16
    Bloomberg 34
    Sanders 36
     
  2. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2012
    Messages:
    2,219
    Likes Received:
    134
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Gender:
    Male
    Colorado

    Gabbard 3
    Bloomberg 15
    Warren 19
    Biden 25
    Sanders 38

    Oklahoma

    Gabbard 2
    Bloomberg 11
    Biden 18
    Warren 31
    Sanders 38

    Utah

    Gabbard 1
    Warren 10
    Bloomberg 12
    Biden 26
    Sanders 51

    Virginia

    Gabbard 1
    Sanders 15
    Bloomberg 16
    Warren 17
    Biden 51
     
  3. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2012
    Messages:
    2,219
    Likes Received:
    134
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Gender:
    Male
    I got 44 of 75 persons in the right position. I had the exact percentage 16 times. I missed by 1% 12 times, 4% or less off 48 of 75 times. Biden's combined percentages added up came to 566 with 16 races. It was 550 with the 15 races.

    Tuesday's races include some of the same states from 4 years ago.
    It's not much fun predicting the winners of a 2-way race.
    Gabbard is still in the race but she's so far down she's in Rocky De La Fuente territory. So I'll base numbers on 98% instead of 100%.

    It's going to rain in Mississippi.
    Biden voters will stay home since there's no doubt of victory.
    Biden 73
    Sanders 25

    The weather is good in Idaho Tuesday. Sanders will have a huge victory as he did 4 years ago.
    Sanders 61
    Biden 37

    North Dakota voted last in 2016 but Sanders won overwhelmingly anyway. No doubt they're voting early this year so he can get a big win while he still has a chance.
    Sanders 59
    Biden 39

    Sanders won Michigan 49-48. I predicted he'd lose 51-49. So I had his percentage right but his position wrong (as I did a few times already this year).
    Sanders has gotten less everywhere even in victory and there's no reason to think Michigan will buck the trend.
    Black voters in the north are not like black voters in the south, If Biden has yet to gain the votes of northern blacks he'll find out here in time to correct the situation.
    Either way I think Sanders slips just a little. A viable third candidate would have made Sanders the winner.
    Biden 53
    Sanders 45

    Missouri is forever listed as a tie in 2008 and they were recounting for days when Bernie gave up in 2016. So expect another close race. Sanders loses again.
    Biden 50
    Sanders 48

    Washington state votes Tuesday as well.
    That's a little earlier than last time because they want Sanders to win while he still has a chance.
    Perhaps they were hoping Jay Inslee would still be in the race, needing a win more desperately than Bernie. Biden's weakness on the west coast will remain evident.
    Sanders 71
    Biden 27.
     
  4. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2012
    Messages:
    2,219
    Likes Received:
    134
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Gender:
    Male
    I was right about North Dakota, Mississippi, Missouri and Michigan, getting Biden's exact percentage in Michigan and North Dakota. Bernie leads in Washington with a lot of counting to do. I was wrong about Idaho.
    This weekend the Northern Marianas votes
    They vote this weekend.
    They still hate Communists, so Bernie is not likely to do better than his 34% in defeat from 2016.
    The question is whether Tulsi Gabbard has any strength there. I think she does. That may be why she's still in the race.
    Obviously some people are pushing hard for Sanders to give up now. I'm hopping mad about that, against one person especially.
    Gabbard is showing us that it barely matters if there's no hope.
    However, consider this. If you win 5 caucuses or primaries you get to make a speech at the convention.
    Bloomberg can't do that with only American Samoa.
    If Gabbard had won American Samoa, then took the Northern Mariana Islands this Saturday, then Guam, her home state of Hawaii and one more territory (Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands) she could speak to the convention.
    That's worth a try. I think she expects a lot of votes there. So this is a 3-way race this weekend.
    Biden 45
    Sanders 30
    Gabbard 25
     
  5. Doug1943

    Doug1943 Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Dec 31, 2015
    Messages:
    3,741
    Likes Received:
    1,748
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Someone passed this on to me -- don't know the original source. Seems pretty plausible ... I mean, they CAN'T nominate a man with rapidly-advancing dementia, c'mon.

    ======================================

    Who does not want Bernie Sanders to get the Democrat nomination? Who recently said of him, "He was in Congress for years. He had one senator support him. Nobody likes him, nobody wants to work with him, he got nothing done. It's all just baloney, and I feel so bad that people got sucked into it"?


    Answer: Hillary.


    Who has a conveniently timed four-part documentary series on Hulu right now, called Hillary? Whose documentary is billed as "a remarkably intimate portrait of a public woman"? Whose documentary is getting plenty of favorable coverage from the mainstream media?


    Answer: Hillary.


    Who helped DNC chairman Tom Perez get his job and earned his loyalty?


    Answer: Hillary.


    Who has repeated ad nauseam that her life mantra is the lesson that her mother taught her: "What defines you in life is not getting knocked down. It's about how you get back up"?


    Answer: Hillary.


    Who never quits?


    Answer: Hillary.


    Who has the connections within the Democrat Party establishment to orchestrate in only 24 hours before Super Tuesday the surprise exit of Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobachar? Who has the power to persuade these candidates to endorse Joe Biden?


    Answer: Hillary.


    Whom will Joe Biden endorse, by design, on the eve of the Democrat Party Convention when he announces that, on advice his wife and doctors, he will not pursue the Democrat Party nomination?


    Answer: Hillary.


    After having watched Joe Biden's further descent into senility and confusion between March and July, who will relieved Democrats, women especially, embrace as their tried and true candidate?


    Answer: Hillary.


    And who, by design, will name as her vice president a fellow with the last name of Bloomberg who just happens to be waiting in the wings with his nationwide campaign offices open and with full staff on salary and billions in cash?


    Answer: Hillary.


    Who has at her fingertips Deep State opposition research gleaned from the Mueller investigation, Michael Cohen's files and spying data on everything Trump, ready to drop sometime in September?


    Answer: Hillary.


    Who will benefit from massive early voting, voting by mail and voter fraud?


    Answer: Hillary.


    Who will Big Tech get behind and push in all online forums?


    Answer: Hillary.


    Who will get about 5 billion additional dollars in positive free earned media?


    Answer: Hillary.


    Who has an excellent chance of being the next president of the United States of America?


    Answer: Hillary.


    Remember, you read it here first.
     
  6. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2012
    Messages:
    2,219
    Likes Received:
    134
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Gender:
    Male
    Only because I can't risk my health by writing that myself.
     
  7. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2012
    Messages:
    2,219
    Likes Received:
    134
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Gender:
    Male
    I was wrong about the Northern Marianas, except that Gabbard would be third.
    I don't take credit for that anywhere else. This was her last real hope to get back in the race.

    Ohio joined the country in 1803, the first non-slave state (because there were still some slaves in all the northern states as laws phased it out for young slaves but older ones were still serving for life.
    That meant the state was full of people who disliked slavery and bigots hoping never to see a black person. Most of the bigots moved west, so it became a hotbed for abolitionists and the underground railroad. The Republican Party started strong there and the state produced 7 Republican Presidents (2 of the worst and 5 average). The Democrats have never controlled the state, but Hillary's victory over Bernie made her think it was hers.
    Hillary dominated the big cities. Bernie got everything else. Biden may do better in the suburbs and farms:
    Biden 56
    Sanders 42

    Illinois dominated the region because of the rivers and Chicago became a huge commercial center. Democrats took control of Chicago but only in this century did the state turn blue.
    The new Mayor of Chicago may not understand the fraud and may see no reason to cheat, so this might be the most honest primary there ever.
    Bernie has some towns he will obviously dominate but Biden has Chicago with or without Obama's help and may take many suburbs for a clear victory:
    Biden 53
    Sanders 45

    President Monroe bought Florida from Spain in 2 stages, ending his only diplomatic challenge. The state joined the union in 1845, giving the slave states their last mathematical advantage. It joined the Confederacy but saw no fighting in the Civil War. After the war Democrats took over, but the GOP did start winning one district in 1952. It became a big swing state, never fully Republican like other old Confederate states.
    Hillary won nearly as big as in other southern states, so Biden looks safe, but the one thing Sanders has done differently this time is making an outreach to Latinos.
    Florida has every kind of Hispanic and Latino there is. Sanders certainly will find limited support from Cubans who escaped his friend Castro's despotism, but might do well with the many other groups. That won't be enough.
    Biden: 58
    Sanders 40

    Arizona is Sanders' best chance for a win Tuesday. He knows that and may have made a major effort there.
    Arizona is the 48th state, added in 1912. The Latinos there are mostly Mexicans and some are from Mexican families that were there when the US took the land in 1848. There are also Indian reservations. Sanders became the first candidate ever to visit a reservation 4 years ago. When they vote, they vote as a unit. He should win northern Arizona easily.
    Arizona is a swing state and it may take a long time to count all the votes, but Bernie always loses the close ones so:
    Biden 50
    Sanders 48,
     
  8. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2012
    Messages:
    2,219
    Likes Received:
    134
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Gender:
    Male
    I was right about all 3 primaries last week.
    Sanders won Democrats Abroad, so I picked the wrong top 2 but had Warren, Bloomberg and Gabbard right as 3, 4 and 5. Bloomberg had the 2% I predicted and Buttigieg, though out of the race, got the 1% I originally predicted.
    At the moment I've been wrong about the winners 9 times of 27.
    For super Tuesday I ended up with 47 of 80 in the right position.
    Biden got 22% in Democrats Abroad.
    The percentages I assigned Biden in the 16 March 3 contests add up to 530. He got 575. Was anyone else less than 3% off?
     
  9. SkullKrusher

    SkullKrusher Banned

    Joined:
    Jun 6, 2011
    Messages:
    5,032
    Likes Received:
    2,137
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Hillary last minute announcement running for POTUS 2020 after Pence and Trump die of virus and Pelosi (while interim President) appoints Hillary as VP

    of course it will be difficult to vote while the country is on fire and in total civil war but everything will work out in the end, you will see
     
    gorfias likes this.
  10. Andrew Jackson

    Andrew Jackson Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 1, 2016
    Messages:
    48,452
    Likes Received:
    32,207
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Perhaps. Anything is possible.

    Then again, here is where all of the Smart Money is:

    [​IMG]
     
  11. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2012
    Messages:
    2,219
    Likes Received:
    134
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Gender:
    Male
    Apparently they are voting today in Wisconsin.
    People are scared to go to the polls. Absentee ballots must be postmarked today.
    Those 300 deaths might all be in Wisconsin.
    So who will win?
    There's no need to vote for Biden. He'll win without your help.
    There's no need to vote for Sanders. He'll lose anyways.
    Sanders supporters are young, lazy but devoted and think they can't die.
    Biden voters are older, tired, scared and have no enthusiasm.
    turnout should be lower than ever, with people that thought they'd be voting next week or in June or never.
    Sanders 58
    Biden 42.
     
  12. Andrew Jackson

    Andrew Jackson Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 1, 2016
    Messages:
    48,452
    Likes Received:
    32,207
    Trophy Points:
    113
    They voted YESTERDAY.

    The totals won't be released for several days.

    Bernie is gone now.
     
  13. Market Junkie

    Market Junkie Banned

    Joined:
    Dec 11, 2016
    Messages:
    2,390
    Likes Received:
    1,920
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Damn, that Taylor Swift is impossibly cute...
     
  14. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2012
    Messages:
    2,219
    Likes Received:
    134
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Gender:
    Male
    I wrote that yesterday on Facebook, then left, didn't return to the computer until 2 hours ago. I still think Bernie will win that and other primaries to come.
     
  15. gfm7175

    gfm7175 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2018
    Messages:
    9,492
    Likes Received:
    4,828
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Yup. April 7th was indeed our election day.

    Some were, other's weren't.

    Correct.

    What 300 deaths?

    Win what? The Dem primary?? Bernie won it in 2016, but he has less momentum this time around (outside of Dane County, anyway). It doesn't matter anyway, since the Democrats tell their supporters who will be the nominee instead of letting their supporters decide like the Republicans do.

    Correct.

    Some aren't, but many of them are.

    Some aren't, but many of them are.

    Probably. That should favor Daniel Kelly for State Supreme Court.

    Yup. You can thank Governor Evers for creating that confusion, as he spent weeks telling us that the election was going to go on as planned, then he tried to change that at the absolute last minute (literally, the day before). Then there's people whining about not getting their absentee ballots. Ummmmm, PLAN AHEAD MAYBE??? That's what I did.

    We'll see. Like I said, I don't think Sanders had the momentum that he had in 2016 (besides Dane County, who absolutely loves the guy). I wouldn't be surprised if he still won though, due to Dane County.

    The only part of the ballot that I cared about was the State Supreme Court race, and I made sure to vote for the conservative justice. I also voted for Trump.
     
  16. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2012
    Messages:
    2,219
    Likes Received:
    134
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Gender:
    Male
    I meant 3000. I was in a hurry and have eye trouble. I know if someone caught the virus Tuesday he won't know he's sick until next Tuesday, and it won't kill him before next Thursday. They predicted 3000 deaths this week from corona virus. I predict less and want a recount either way.
    Do you have stats on turnout?
     
  17. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2012
    Messages:
    2,219
    Likes Received:
    134
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Gender:
    Male
    Obviously I was wrong about Wisconsin and wrong about Alaska, but Sanders got 44% in Alaska anyway.
    It is possible Bernie had insiders with some numbers from Wisconsin and sensed he'd lose Alaska too.
    There's no way to make a comeback without direct contact with the voters, a debate to embarrass your opponent or aggressive ads. Still we know who he is and what to expect: less everywhere than in 2016.
    That still could have meant wins in places he won overwhelmingly last time, like Wyoming, where they vote today. I would have picked Sanders to win about 55-45 under ordinary circumstances.
    With no race it should be 99-1, shouldn't it? If it's 60-40 Biden it will tell us that-as in the case of Trump near the end in 2016-Biden gets only about 10% extra unopposed. I think Biden will get less than 60% today in Wyoming, revealing for the first time that unity is not achieved just because there's no active competition.
     
  18. CrepedCrusader

    CrepedCrusader Newly Registered

    Joined:
    Jan 26, 2020
    Messages:
    13
    Likes Received:
    4
    Trophy Points:
    1
    Gender:
    Male
    Just came to be petty and gloat that my prediction that Biden would walk away with the nomination was only wrong in that I underestimated just how badly he would beat Bernie. Peace out.
     

Share This Page