Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

I avoided getting into this fray for a long time but feel the need to give some nice Eurocents here.

So, it's all fine and good to quote stats on one side or the other about what percentage of Americans are staying home or not, but unless we know with specificity what those who are out and about are doing, it's all moot.

I have no bloody idea exactly how many New Yorkers (in the city alone) are essential workers, but I am pretty sure than when you add up all medical workers, fire and rescue, the police, trash-pickup, power-grid, road-construction, plumbers (ever gone through 6 weeks of quarantine with a clogged toilet?) and the like, I am absolutely sure than "essential" workers account for far more than 10% of any one city - or state.

So, the 52% of New Yorkers staying home may really be true. What is missing is/are the questions as to whether the people out and about are essential workers getting back and forth to work, or people who logically need to shop for food probably once per week and the like. I do think were the question to be, "how many New Yorkers, by percent, are ignoring quarantine and going out in groups just to screw around and by the way, forget social distancing" is probably extremely small.

So, this kind of data, without extra layers of specificity, is not very helpful.

I would bet that in the hours between 07:30-09:00 and then between 16:30-18:00, again around 23:00, if you track the movement of smartphones, you will probably see that that accounts for a lot of this - meaning, people going to and coming home from work.

In Moscow, the restrictions are so extreme (and probably necessarily, since Putin dithered so long) that you have to apply online for a bar code in order to get into your car and go to work. The police stop your car and scan your bar code before letting you go on.

My point is: we will never really know for sure how many stayed at home or not. But we will know if it was enough to curb the spread. And right now, quite obviously, the jury is still out on that one. Don't count your sick and dead people before they are sick or (unfortunately)... dead.

 

Oh, that's easy. You do simple math on any WORLDMETERS chart. That way you can gauge the positivity from day to day.

 

The SafeGraph breaks down exactly how they are monitoring people always at home, part-time workers, full-time worker, and people who are "out" only a few hours (indicating shopping, medical appts, or maybe just driving around). They also track how much traffic has gone to shop particular retail stores on a second dashboard.

Most of your questions are answered on their metrics page:

https://docs.safegraph.com/docs/social-distancing-metrics

 

That was one of my three goals when I wrote the thread

1.) Track the stats on an ongoing basis.
2.) Stay honest and factual with the stats. Don't let scruffy stuff get in the way.
3.) Get people to come together and work together.

This is why our big old bad old disfunctional family on this thread is so awesome. Because of people like you, among many, many others.

As long as COVID-19 exists, I will continue to feed this thread. Because I plan to outlive COVID-19.

 

Most but not all. But it looks pretty good.

My lord, they even track it down to used car dealerships by franchise name....

 

The criteria for the IHME dates sounds more like Phase 2 in which the social distancing is relaxed. Phase 1 has the 6 foot guideline.

 

This seems extremely likely to me and eminently plausible.. Assuming a 14 day incubation period, then people flying from China to the USA, say, in the second week of January and were asymptomatic, then came down with symptoms about a week after landing and coming into contact with at least 50 people over those seven days....

...in fact, the deeper we dig, we may even find and earlier case or two.

 

Interesting. The lockdown didn’t start here until mid March. And the big outbreak was in LA which is 400 miles south of Santa Clara. Santa Clara is right in the middle of Silicon Valley which gets a lot of travelers coming through the SJC and SFO airports.

 

It's good to be skeptical of data and not just take any "scientific findings" as truth.

Anyone with experience or education in how statistical models or survey data is compiled knows that there are holes in everything presented. Usually only the researchers/modelers are aware of how many holes and the size of those holes. Numbers themselves don't lie, but there is a reason that when researchers start compiling (and excluding) certain numbers and making assumptions about missing data and determining what outliers to throw out, it's called "manipulating the data". How much the raw data gets manipulated usually depends on the person/company who signs the researchers' paychecks and what they want the outcome to be.

The SafeGraph folks seem to be doing a "pretty good" job at keeping their model as honest and objective as possible, knowing that no data is "perfect".

 

That's what I'm thinking. I've read that some scientists are thinking the virus may have started in China as early as mid-September, and that date keeps getting pushed earlier and earlier the more they investigate.

 

Hi,
Somebody asked me to stop to post religious contents in this thread. I do it.

If anybody is interested to listen what I have to talk, I have opened this thread:


This-is-the-his-second-coming-as-judge

 

That is the exact opposite of what the CDC told him and the public.

 

Maybe this explains New Zealand and Australia which may not have had the virus percolating early on. As the cases in Europe and the US ramped up they were in the first stage of community spread so that their lockdown was much more effective than in other countries which locked down after cases were rapidly ramping up.

 

You stay safe, healthy, and whatever you need to do to remain mostly sane in this insane world.

Thank you for all the work you put forward on this thread. It is truly appreciated.

 

Seconds after that he clarified that anyone who needed a test could get one. That was his understanding. As usual that Orange Man Bad group take things out of context.

 

The Orange Man is incompetent. Now, he's urging governors to open up businesses likely to spread the virus.

 

Orange Man Bad again ^^^

 

Colorado figures, the new case figure is holding steady, no real drop.
My county had no new case, 13 confirmed, 2 dead.
https://covid19.colorado.gov/data/case-data
Our neighbor the Navajo Reservation, seams to level out, the stringent curfew seams to work.
They have 1300 cases. They changed their counting and leave now boarder town figures out, which are related to the Res.

 

I mean that both nations are inherently totalitarian, and therefore their citizens both A: Expect totalitarian policies and B: Understand there to be no choice. In Western "Liberal democracies"(such as they call them), there's the expectation(and/or illusion in some thinking circles) of liberties and therefore draconian measures are ineffective.

Perhaps we need these draconian measures, but there needs to be an effectiveness to show and even with the recent "success", there's too much noise to determine if in fact it's successful(they THEMSELVES admit that noise. Which I wouldn't do if I were trying to convince the people this is necessary, but alas.)

And the worst case for the Liberal democracies would be a tightening of and/or a continuation of the rules with the same lack of clarity or large noise volume that disputes the effectiveness. Every month of uncertainty is a month loss of support for the measures.

 

No, governors, including Democratic ones are urging that, Europe also.

 

Something that I noticed about the IHME model is that their curve of their projections is a bell curve with the ascent roughly matching the descent. As I noted earlier, that type of symmetry does not appear anywhere else in the world except in China.

Everywhere else the rise in the new infections and new deaths is sharp while the descent after the peak is much slower.

 

Sounds like a good idea. We'll come on over now and again!!!

 

Speaking of opening up the KBO is playing their opening game on May 5th.


Korean Baseball Organization.

 

Have you seen the lines at the food banks lately ???

 

You sound exactly like my husband, who says, "Numbers don't lie, but people manipulate numbers to lie all the time."

Great minds, and all that!!