Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Discussion in 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) News' started by Statistikhengst, Mar 14, 2020.

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  1. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    Would it be possible to include the Tests per 1M Pop and Active Cases with that tracking?

    The reason I am asking is because as of yesterday the US (42,680) is still trying to catch up to Germany (42,924) in the former.

    Testing/Active is the key tracking measure when it comes to knowing how many are infected. Done properly it should be PROACTIVE which is what I suspect that China is trying to achieve. When we can see the Tests per 1M pop growing while the Active Cases DECLINE then we will know that we are achieving an R0 that is below 1.
     
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  2. truth and justice

    truth and justice Well-Known Member

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    Hey TOG, weird thing happening with your brilliant stats!
    Today, using your obscure reasoning: 11.2% infection rate, 37,268,218 infected, 0.25% death rate

    How can that be! Five million less people in just two days suddenly not infected and the death rate has gone up. One would think that your analysis is nonsense. To end this debate you could always say that your analysis was wrong .........
     
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  3. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The gym employees need jobs. That's essential. And the gym is operating within the social distancing and sanitization guidelines. What we don't need is morons in charge creating a police state which lets criminals out of jail and puts people who want to earn a living in jail.

    BTW, the CDC has changed its stance on surface transmission. There is little to fear from touching of surfaces.



    https://www.foxnews.com/health/cdc-...s-not-spread-easily-via-contaminated-surfaces
     
    Last edited: May 21, 2020
  4. Curious Always

    Curious Always Well-Known Member Past Donor

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  5. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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  6. LangleyMan

    LangleyMan Well-Known Member

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    If the Chinese are prepared to tell us what they find, we should get more information about carriers and transmission. We should be thinking about second and even third waves. Would better PPE for the general public help cut the size and duration of subsequent waves?
     
  7. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Why would anyone believe anything that comes out of the CCP ?? They are responsible for the global spread of the coronavirus and the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people.
     
  8. LangleyMan

    LangleyMan Well-Known Member

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    I can't imagine why. The babbling, hate-filled screeds you offer here suggest you stopped thinking clearly long ago.
    I said the law is what the CDC relies on to quarantine people with diseases like TB. Did I say they could use it for mass quarantines of people who may or may not have a transmissible disease? Nope.
    No, you misrepresented my comments and now offer "advice" on issues I didn't raise. Are you a lawyer? Are you prepared to stand behind your statements about the law as legal advice?
    I'll offer you some political advice and that's based on my running winning campaigns for both ends of the political spectrum. The government will make sure it has the capability of quarantining people to stop the spread on potentially fatal infectious disease.


    You're a spent force.
     
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  9. LangleyMan

    LangleyMan Well-Known Member

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    No, they don't need jobs unless we aren't prepared to provide them with an income while the gym is shut down.
    Are they? How many people are prepared to take their word for it?
    9278A4BA-2A19-4522-8F6F-66BDFC037A01.jpeg

    Only about one in four of us would be prepared to risk going to a gym.
    The moron you would inflict on us for another four years...

    2687C82B-E5A9-48E5-8F9E-B917B96F82DE.png

    There's no news here.
     
  10. LangleyMan

    LangleyMan Well-Known Member

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    Why would you believe this guy...?

    C902DB27-2658-4FC3-AE13-E90FAD868F90.png
     
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  11. Sanskrit

    Sanskrit Well-Known Member

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    The above is just one of many examples possible in which you clarify for anyone reading that you don't have 30+ years of experience in anything, but rather 1 year of experience repeated 30 times.

    To the topic, for anyone still interested in comprehensive, nonpartisan sources (you will NOT be getting either from the well-documented partisan OP of this thread or any of the cherry-picking, goalpost shifting, fear grifters herein) here is the RCP link again AND this time the Georgia government data. DRAW YOUR OWN CONCLUSIONS, do not be led by fear-grifter cherry picks, or my conclusions for that matter, which are included below.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/coronavirus/country/united-states/

    https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report

    1. As has been the case for a ~month now, there remains a massive disparity between COVID1984 results/deaths in the 10 corrupt, public union, Democrat governed, near bankrupt prior SOPRANO States, and the other FORTY states. One or the other sets of states DO NOT MATCH, either the 10 or the 40. So the question becomes do you trust Paulie, Silvio, Tony, Governor "Nipple Clamps," Mayor "Jew Hunter" and other erstwhile mafiosi in the corrupt Democrat cities to ABUSE the "full of well-crafted holes" CDC "counting" loopholes to overcount? Or do you believe that the other FORTY States are undercounting?

    2. Regardless how one decides "1" above, it is now an irrefutable scientific fact, no meaningful debate possible, that due to botched models, MSM overhype, ACTUAL RESULTS AND KNOWLEDGE TODAY, etc., what was pitched as a juicy steak pandemic three months ago ended up being a $1 menu burger with far more bun than meat today, and regardless of near INFINITE fake news, cherry-picking, and outright lying, that is where the COVID1984 Viral Moral Panic of 2020 remains, D... O...A... other than the OFF CHANCE that the monstrous results in the Soprano cities are honest BUT localized.

    3. THEREFORE, for about ~30 U.S. states, trying to blend in all the crooked, overcount Soprano City results towards a FICTION of national U.S. COVID1984 emergency is a PURPOSEFUL LIE towards immense social costs, both in lives and economically. There is no possible "good faith" mistaking draconian viral measures in those states, and up to 10 more, as warranted any more. No facts, no science, just LW AUTHORITARIAN PERSONALITIES and their mischief, Fake Hype, Fake News, et. al. This kind of dishonest lumping of national results in efforts to impede those states and people living there is long past unwise or partisan, but out and out criminal, no matter who is doing it.

    4. For most of the rest of the cities or U.S. States, ~10+ it is highly unlikely that draconian mitigation methods are Constitutionally warranted. The results, facts, data, science, none balance the interests of free people in exercising their free rights.

    5. For the final 10 cities and the unfortunate States surrounding them? Fine, lock them up to their graft, public unions, schemes, scams, and outright criminality until the end of time. JUST LEAVE THE REST OF THE COUNTRY ALONE!
     
    Last edited: May 21, 2020
  12. AFM

    AFM Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Their customers are observing the guidelines. If you would do homework you would know that and their protocols. The time for lockdown is over.
     
  13. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    Just an update to @Sanskrit on the metric he chose to use for determining that Covid-19 is only a bad cold - i.e. it has killed less after 2 months than the average seasonal flu kills in a year.

    The number of States that has crossed the threshold was 16 one week ago. It now sits at 24.
     
  14. Sanskrit

    Sanskrit Well-Known Member

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    No less a falsehood/cherrypick than when you posted this a day or two ago.

    To clarify, COVID1984 -is- a bad cold, if even that, for the overwhelming majority of people who catch it. Only a tiny few unlucky, statistically insignificant outliers among young, healthy victims have anything to fear from it. That is an irrefutable, inescapable, scientific, numerical fact, not an opinion, regardless of the degree to which fear-grifters cherry-pick this or other Fake News.

    COVID1984, like a HOST of other old-age maladies, can endanger or even kill old, comorbid victims in unhealthy environments. That is why such a disproportionate amount of victims succumb from nursing homes, where the average life expectancy is 6 mo- 2.5 years.

    Now, add the well-known, well-documented CDC and other governmental scams applicable to "counting" cases of COVID1984 in comparison to flu or other causes of death, and it is no wonder that the description of the disease as a "bad cold" is accurate in an overwhelming geographical area of the U.S.

    This "pandemic that never really was" due to horrifically inaccurate, incompetent modeling is -over- regardless whether fear grifters want it to be over for whatever political machinations they plan in an election year. Most people are recognizing that more and more by the hour regardless of the repetitive efforts of the fear grifters to the contrary.
     
    Last edited: May 21, 2020
  15. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    So, it was a nice father's day with my daughter! Her legs are tired from a long bike tour near a pretty hilly area....

    And now.... the bigly bad nasty ugly no good very bad day stats:

    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/21/unemployment-claims-numbers-coronavirus-272868

    That's makes for a total of 38.6 MILLION Americans who have applied for unemployment benefits since the middle of March, 2020, as the USA went into some form of lockdown.

    Unemployment was at: 3.4% before the pandemic hit. Remember this percentage, for it has nothing to do with COVID-19, it was there already.

    Circa 1.5 million new unemployed = 1% more unemployment, when you list it as a percentual statistic.

    38.6 million jobs lost / 1.5 = 25.73% newly unemployed, but that's not the entire picture.

    3.4% + 25.7% = 29.1% complete unemployment as of right now. The BLS may or may not report it that high on around June 6th, but this is where we are right now.

    At the very peak of the great depression, unemployment was estimated (after the fact, starting in the late 1940s and early 1950s) at 24.5%. So, we are in completely uncharted territory right now.

    Surely, some of these people will be getting their jobs back, but certainly not all of them. After all, that was part of the many trillion giveaway package to big businesses, so that they could furlough people and then have them report back to work once the crisis was over.

    That being said, I am willing to wager that far more than 50% of people who have applied for unemployment will have lost their jobs completely, when the dust has settled.

    Also, the loss of a huge number of jobs has started a ripple-effect that none of us can even begin to estimate with any credibility right now, so as some jobs come back, others made disappear as collateral damage. Why? Because we have never been here before. This is really unexplored territory.

    For instance, businesses that make their profit off lunch-hour traffic from many firms that worked in huge business towers - that have now moved to home-office - those smaller businesses may go under permanently.

    That is just one example out of literally hundreds, if not thousands, of possibilities.

    Airline industry? Forget it, a number of carriers will go belly up and it will take probably 2 decades for that industry to recover.

    Also, the statistic above does not include part-timers, because in many states, they can't even apply for UI.

    Also, in a number of states, the UI systems are still crashing. There are counties in Florida where people who applied for UI 6 weeks ago have still not received one single dime of help because their applications have still not been processed. Surely, FL is not the only state with this problem.

    In March, Moody's predicted that when all is said and done, we will have about 54.2 million unemployed. That is an unbelievable, scary as hell bigly huge number.

    We hit 10.1% unemployment under the Obama administration, after the market crashed in September 2008, near the end of Bush 43's administration. It took us TEN years go get from 10.1% unemployment back to an easy 3.4%, which is, for all intents and purposes, full-employment. Just imagine how long it is going to take to get us from over 30% unemployment (it is surely going to rise some more again in June) back to 3.4%.

    Our economic lives as we have known them may never be the same again.

    -Stat
     
    Last edited: May 21, 2020
  16. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Right now, as of 4 minutes ago, in the USA, we are at 95,921 COVID-19 deaths and will surely sail way past 96,000 by the end of the day.

    2020-05-021 COVID-19 USA almost 96000 deaths.png
     
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  17. LangleyMan

    LangleyMan Well-Known Member

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    Yet another stupid comment. Bravo.
    You're babbling. The thread isn't about Georgia.
    Not the best source.
    Compare British Columbia with about half the population of Georgia...

    6DFB8D79-BE76-4658-B2DC-0BBFF90CA80F.jpeg
    State of Georgia

    B6C8872E-DB90-4A97-9B65-77E1353A9560.jpeg

    British Columbia is down to a handful of daily cases while Georgia is...

    BD452124-7C4C-4637-971F-DB47AB3319CB.jpeg

    ... at 500 per day.

    British Columbia has never had a lockdown, but it has closed some businesses likely to spread the virus--bars, clubs, Alaska cruises, etc. Now, many of the businesses are reopening.
    We're now seeing Republican states with new cases increasing. How do you explain that?
    You: "Babble, babble..."
    The Moron-in-Chief is actively promoting opening too soon. He's also leading us into a more difficult recession because he and his Republican Senate pals are letting small and medium businesses die.
    They should do what was done in British Columbia where businesses and government services (schools, beaches, parks) were closed when people didn't or couldn't keep their distance. No one was locked down. I know because my wife and I chose to ride out the pandemic in BC instead of Oregon. Why? Because the land of our birth has covidiots egged on by the Orange Oaf and people like you.
    Did you consider living in another country where there is less corruption?
     
    Last edited: May 21, 2020
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  18. Sanskrit

    Sanskrit Well-Known Member

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    Nonresponsive. Excellent case study though.
     
    Last edited: May 21, 2020
  19. LangleyMan

    LangleyMan Well-Known Member

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    Gyms were open in BC until too many of them were ignoring guidelines. When they were allowed to reopen, they demonstrated a new awareness of what is expected.
     
  20. Sanskrit

    Sanskrit Well-Known Member

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    Well add "economist" to "statistician" and "objective, non-partisan observer of pretty much anything" to the list of things you aren't.
     
  21. LangleyMan

    LangleyMan Well-Known Member

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    Yes, your post certainly is.
    Nah. You're not very interesting or much of a challenge.
     
  22. LangleyMan

    LangleyMan Well-Known Member

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    You sure as hell aren't an economist.

    Are you a lawyer? I doubt it.
     
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  23. gnoib

    gnoib Well-Known Member

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    I am afraid you are right. I do not see how there will be that free for all tourism again, for quiet some time.
    That industry will take a serious hit. It will take a while till unemployment gets to a decent level, which means people have disposable income and can afford to go on a vacation.
    Defaults on home payments is way up, even worse than during the 2008 crisis. Hard times are coming.
    I am sure glad that I have no debt at all and have lived rather frugal over the last 14 years. Any disposable income under the old mattress, sparen, spare, sparen.
     
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  24. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    570 employees at Tyson Poultry Plant in North Carolina test COVID-19 positive:

    https://www.fox23.com/news/trending...nt-north-carolina/TQGXOP5JFRBODCQQXE52BCCZ44/

    That's 25.4% of all the workers at just one single poultry plant. And most of them had no idea they were sick.
     
    Last edited: May 21, 2020
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  25. AmericanNationalist

    AmericanNationalist Well-Known Member

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    This all sucks :(
    I warned of this at the start. None of this factors in the inflationary measures that are being supported, which will make the matter worse. I don't know when the downturn is going to be experienced in real time(similarly to how we didn't know when coronavirus strikes down), but when it does, your estimate is accurate, I'm thinking 8-12 years.

    The shutdown was ill-advised, it was ill-thought out. Add to the inflationary measures and Trump was prophetic(his own business experiences no doubtedly aided him in saying the obvious), the cure was worse than the disease.
     

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