Something to consider when deciding to reopen or not

1.5 million cases, 100,000 deaths, less than half the fraction of those infected in total. What this math says is that more people recover from this virus than die, of every age range and demographic. What does this also mean?

Plenty of antibodies to develop a vaccine. If more people actually did the math in trying to defend keeping the country locked down, they would see its making less and less sense to keep the country locked down.

 

The left want the lockdown to continue because frankly, it doesn't effect most of them. They either get a pay check from government, or can work remotely, or don't work, but still get paid. Shut off their state or federal funding that pay them, and watch the immediate outcry.

 

you may wish to reconsider your math.

The first number in the equation MUST BE "unknown number of people who were infected"

Using "cases" is simply those who were tested and tested positive. I think we'll all be shocked should we ever find a way to determine how many have antibodies. The number of deaths to the number who were infected will be a micro-fraction of 1%

 

Protect a tiny fraction of people or lose your business? Sounds like an easy choice. Anyone entering your store is making a choice. They can see precautions you are or aren’t taking and can decide to frequent or not.

The left is willing to destroy 10s of millions of lives to protect a tiny fraction. Remind me again how much they care? They only care about one thing. CONTROL over your life and whether they’ll get a vote from you. You are a number, a checkbox and nothing else. They don’t give a ****.

People who care don’t think it’s OK to spend trillions a month to keep you at home. People who care don’t celebrate death to blast a president over decisions he made that you actually agreed with at the time and other decisions he made that saved lives. People who care don’t want the stock market to crash. Or make dire warnings based on opinions instead of facts.

 

The math doesn't support your point. Nationwide. only 13% of covid tests have come out positive. That indicates that there is not a huge number of covid positive people in the population that has mild symptoms. Even in NYC, in which covid ran rampant for weeks without testing, only 20% were positive for antibodies. These data don't support the notion that there is widespread immunity in the population. It would be great if there was widespread immunity, but I think we have to accept the hard facts that the mortality rate is not going to be 0.5%, but rather in the 3-6% range.

In my county, the % positive tests is only 5%. The mortality rate based on deaths/confirmed cases is 9%. Even if some people had the virus, but never got tested, I doubt that more than 1% of the population had the virus. That would put the mortality rate at around 2-3%.

Unfortunately, one has to be realistic. Wishful thinking does not help in tackling this pandemic.

 

again, we have no clue how many have had covid either symptomatic or asymptomatic. Not everyone has been or will be tested

if you insist on using the "positive cases" then the % MUST be used against the ENTIRE population, not just those tested.

If your agenda and bias is more in line with govt over-reach, then you will continue to push your talking points

 

Measuring positive cases against the whole population makes no sense, because people without symptoms or exposure risk do not usually get tested.

But, getting back to the equation: mortality rate = number of deaths/number of cases

The RW opinion has been, for a while, that the denominator is too low, when you use only confirmed cases. If the denominator is too low, the actual mortality rate is less than what is currently known. That may be so, but the denominator is unlikely to be too low by a factor of 10. If it is too low by a factor of 2, it drops the mortality rate from 3-6% to 1.5-3%, still much higher than the regular flu.

I have shown numbers above to support my conclusion that the mortality rate is higher than the regular flu. Now, maybe you can show your numbers. Then, we can see who has an agenda and bias. Numbers usually don't lie.

 

Higher than the regular flu, but not high enough(in my view) to justify what we've done to the economy and what it will take moving forward to fix it. Look, we're all going to die to something and if it's to something we have a 97.5% to a 99% chance of beating, I'd take those odds.

Even if it were as high as 10% that means we'd still have a 90% chance of recovery. Sure, there's the other ailments but as someone whose lived with life long asthma: They'll learn to manage. They shouldn't have to, yes it's a tragedy but a new great depression would be a bigger tragedy.

And no, it has nothing to do with Trump. I know you're vested in the financial sector too, you know as well as I do that this is going to take years, even if Biden is president. If Biden wins, he'll be inheriting a worse situation than Obama inherited from Bush.

 

We can argue until the cows come home whether our response was correct or not. It's a done deal at this point. We did what we did, just like just about every nation on earth. And here we are.

I disagree that it might take years to "recover". I would like to look at this as a temporary "hiatus" from normal economic activity. No one stopped getting their hair cut because they couldn't afford it.

On the other hand, the economy was due for a correction. The feds having been pumping it up to the bursting point instead of allowing normal financial cycles to function as they do. There was no reason to be pumping so much capital, and suppressing the interest rates, into an an economy running at 3% unemployment.

 

Something to consider when deciding to reopen or not

The 4th most populated county in America is on its second week of being open. And with a population of nearly 5 million and 1.1 million over the age of 60 Maricopa County only recorded 7 COVID19 deaths in the past 24 hours. Crap, we have 10 times that amount who die from drug overdose, car accidents, murder and suicide.

 

Read this slowly.

1% means THREE AND A HALF MILLION people die.

You just said that 10% was acceptable. THIRTY FIVE MILLION dead people...to "protect" the economy

You think an economy would survive either?

You need to stop talking

 

Oh, great...

The week before last part of Texas was opened. Trump and the Republican are now crowing about how few deaths there are last week, only one week later!

COVID doesn't usually just drop dead the moment they are infected! The deaths won't even start until NEXT week, with a growing number the weeks after.

Trumpies are as clueless as their president, except for the ones who are paid propaganda. Good luck, Texas!

 

Yes, because you see, *you* will live in that world where 3 1/2 million(or 35 million) people die. I know it's very callous to you, but some people(like myself) are groomed to make those callous calls, and I don't regret them. The alternative is that maybe 28 million people die, but we're in a great depression.

The damage far outweighs the long term cost, once we accept that death is inevitable.

 

We wouldn't have needed those things either, if not for the fact that this Congress has been awol. Literally, this is what's on Speaker Pelosi's legacy: Through the house appropriated bills during the crisis, she has effectively spent more than double the money the President asked for on INFRASTRUCTURE when she cried 'he's covering up something'.

The moment Pelosi is no longer House Speaker, we will all celebrate as her witless tenure has been marked with incompetence, freezing out the other party and trying to stick a finger in Trump because that gets her some praise with the Washington Post I guess.

Worst House Speaker in US History.

 

The Dems WILL Hold the House.

Thus, Nancy is going to be around for awhile.

As far as "Worst Ever"?

In terms of Partisan Obstruction, Dennis Hastert was exponentially worse than Nancy.

 

Nancy Pelosi is the House Speaker, and enjoys minority status in congress as a whole.

Find another scapegoat. Any other scapegoat, than those who are in charge of actually of spending the money.

 

Do you think anything gets done without the Speaker of the House? Theoretically yes, in actual practice no. The Speaker is 3rd in line to the US Presidency, it is functionally an important position and she is not a scapegoat she is merely responsible for her own incompetence.

 

Dems already lost the former seat held by Katie Hill because she was holding swinger parties ROFL. Of all the reasons to lose a seat. Even if Dems hold the House, I think it's safe to say that they'll lose more seats and it'll be a closely divided House.

 

The country is opening. Try turning on the news sometime.

...not Fox or Limbaugh, actual news.

 

You are correct, the country is opening because of FOX News and Limbaugh thank you very much.

 

As a scientist you should know that PCR is not the standard for determining infection prevalence in epidemiologic study

 

Could you ever just make a point, instead of muddying the waters with non-relevant detections?

 

You have also shown your assumptions, that the "denominator is unlikely to be too low by a factor of 10."

Here is one data point:

-------------------
After weighting for population demographics of Santa Clara County, the prevalence was 2.8% (95CI 1.3-4.7%), using bootstrap to estimate confidence bounds. These prevalence point estimates imply that 54,000 (95CI 25,000 to 91,000 using weighted prevalence; 23,000 with 95CI 14,000-35,000 using unweighted prevalence) people were infected in Santa Clara County by early April, many more than the approximately 1,000 confirmed cases at the time of the survey. Conclusions The estimated population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection may be much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases.
-----------------------------
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v2

This seems to suggest that the denominator is too low by a factor of 25 to 50, putting the mortality rate well within the range of seasonal flu.

What is your conclusion about agenda and bias? Numbers don't lie, but unwarranted assumptions most often lead to incorrect results.

 

You know the point.

 

I don't watch Fox or Limbaugh.

I'm aware that the country is slowly starting to return to normal.