The US is in Relative Decline against China

Discussion in 'Political Opinions & Beliefs' started by Lil Mike, May 22, 2020.

  1. Giftedone

    Giftedone Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Are you talking complete disengagement with China Economically ? I am not sure we can completely disengage -or even to a significant degree - even if a strong desire was there - and I don't think there is. This is not a simple situation - and if we go unilaterally we lose for sure.

    Sure China will be hurt as well - but others in the world will benefit - folks other than us -and our overall standing will be diminished.

    The short term damage to our economy would be huge - at a time when we do not have that much wiggle room economically. Such a policy would be politically unsustainable.
     
  2. dairyair

    dairyair Well-Known Member

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    Uniting or dividing starts at the top.
    I can't make policies.

    The character of a nation, a sports team, a corporation, or a small business is most often the character of the leader(s).
     
  3. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    Maybe you need to define enemy then.
    Is your enemy someone that is kicking your ass at trade or someone threatening you with war.
     
  4. Thedimon

    Thedimon Well-Known Member

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    China will become the worlds largest economy soon. That’s something that no one can deny.
    They are good with logistics and manufacturing, that’s why they are a manufacturing superpower.
    Their problem lies in a fact that they don’t innovate. Almost everything that China pushes as their technology was invented by someone else. Even their 5G from Huawei relies on American semiconductors (or semiconductors they were designed by the US or Western Europe).
    That means that they will always rely on the west to innovate. Which means they will always be dependent and will never be the real top of the world.

    I think many freak out about China because a large bulk of all international defense treaties leave out China. As their military might grows, they must be forced to the negotiating table and open up their stockpiles for international inspections. I honestly think that Chinese are just watching out for their best interests, which doesn’t always aligns with our best interests. Which means they are not evil. Russians like to think that China is their friend, but back in 60s USSR lost a small small with China (at the time when USSR was magnitudes more powerful that today’s Russia). A few years ago Russia quietly gave China fairly large chunks of territory.
    China is not our friend. And it’s not Russia’s friend. Everyone is caring about their own interests. And China should be treated as such - someone who could be a good partner, when interests align. I hope the US had an eye opener with COVID-19 and learned a valuable lesson - critically important production should be moved back to the US or at least to countries that are our solid allies, like the U.K., Canada, Australia, etc (not Germany).

    PS: I also believe Russia is a bigger threat to us and China. In China their president relies on the communist party. Which means that there is a group of people who cumulatively have the power to remove that President from his post. In Russia party relies on Putin. Which means that he is like a king - he can do anything he wants. The longer he stays in power the more Pootin gets detached from reality. Sometimes I think he himself believes in the propaganda his agents are spreading. So, Russia has no true accountability. Which makes it much more dangerous.
    Sanctions on China will hurt China (and us). Sanctions on Russia don’t do much because they are always broke and people there can’t do anything about their top leadership.
     
    Last edited: May 23, 2020
  5. Surfer Joe

    Surfer Joe Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Your false narrative won't have an impact because it's all based on lies and propaganda and people can see right through the desperate right wing memes about chinese democrats or Obamagate bullshit and keep their attention on the orange elephant in the room and how he has failed to lead and has not a shred of character. That perception is now common wisdom, and your boy trump is shedding support by the day.
     
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  6. Jonsa

    Jonsa Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Yes, its easy to kick Russia around, since their economy sucks, but China is whole different handful. I wonder what kind of policy trump and pompeo can craft a policy that treats China like an enemy when its also the source of 19% of all american imports. I guess commerce between enemies is perfectly okay until the bombs start dropping. Who would have thought foreign policy could be so complicated?
     
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  7. Lil Mike

    Lil Mike Well-Known Member

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    Well I'm not advocating an immediate moratorium. I think it's a process that will take years. First step is do no harm, so stop the increase in manufacturing imports. Impose quotas and gradually tighten them over a period of years, at the same time addressing our shortcomings, like in pharmaceutical manufacture. It wasn't that long ago that it was mostly domestic; we had special tax breaks for Puerto Rico that allowed quite a boon in pharmaceutical manufacture. Then we stopped them and Big Pharma moved to China. We should restore those tax benefits to Puerto Rico, and make them permanent.
     
  8. Lil Mike

    Lil Mike Well-Known Member

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    That seems like a fine policy for North Korea, but not the United States. Tell me, what policies do you think we should be "united" in?
     
  9. Lil Mike

    Lil Mike Well-Known Member

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    I think a country that represents a threat to your own country in an international, military, and economic front, and intends to push against you in all of those areas, are in enemy.

    If China acts as though the US is their enemy, can we safely say we are not enemies and go about their business?
     
  10. Lil Mike

    Lil Mike Well-Known Member

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    Russia remains a threat because they are a hostile military power and work on the international scene to hurt the US, but unless they plan something military, they don't really represent that much of a threat. They are no means as big or bigger threat than China.
     
    Last edited: May 23, 2020
  11. dairyair

    dairyair Well-Known Member

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    Taking on the leader(s) character is not just policy. It's human nature in some ways. Most want to play follow leader.

    I would think keeping the USA has the world economic leader is a benefit.
    It keeps the US$ as the world's trade currency.
    IMO, if we lose the US$ as the world's trade currency, we'd be a whole lot worse off.
    As people and gov'ts flock to US treasury in economic hard times.

    So we should be expanding trade in the world, not pulling back. But I'm not an economist, its just opinion.
     
    Last edited: May 23, 2020
  12. Lil Mike

    Lil Mike Well-Known Member

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    Well I'm quite interested in what exactly I've said that was "lies and propaganda." What specifically did I say that was lies and propaganda? I'd like to correct the record if that's true.
     
  13. Daniel Light

    Daniel Light Well-Known Member

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    Who thinks China is the "good guy"?
     
  14. Daniel Light

    Daniel Light Well-Known Member

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    Both are aggressive competitors.
    Both should be treated with suspicion.

    China is the more important trade partner.

    That's just reality.
     
  15. Lil Mike

    Lil Mike Well-Known Member

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    Unbelievably, I find myself in partial agreement with you. I also think that keeping the US dollar as the world's reserve currency as a vital national and economic interest of the United States. There are several countries, including China, that would like to end that. Do you think expanding trade with China fixes that?

    Could China’s yuan replace the dollar as a reserve currency?
     
  16. Giftedone

    Giftedone Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    That is more sensible - and particularly the engaging with other nations part.
     
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  17. Daniel Light

    Daniel Light Well-Known Member

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    Having Trump make enemies of our European allies puts China one step closer to moving away from US currency domination.
    Trump has treated Europe, our largest trading partner poorly.
    Trump plays the short game, not the long game, because it's all about
    Trump.
     
    Last edited: May 23, 2020
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  18. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    :) That's pretty funny.
    So your mad at China for standing up for themselves on the international stage while we try to push them around like they are Europe.
    China is not an aggressive military power, but the are very protective of there trade routes. I can't remember the last time I saw a Chinese battle group in the gulf of Mexico. :)
    So yes your mad because they kick our ass on trade.
     
  19. dairyair

    dairyair Well-Known Member

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    Again, not an economist.
    But I think pulling out of existing trade agreements not getting involved in new ones while the rest of the world, China in particular, are forging new deals.
    Pissing off our largest trading partners is bad policy, IMO.

    We can lead, follow, or sit out the global economy. Which in large part the US is responsible for creating and leading.

    I was against NAFTA, voted Perot because of it, I was worried the repeal of Glas-stegall would lead to what happened before it was enacted.
    It turns out NAFTA did Shaftya. US Mfg Jobs. And Glas-Stegal pushed us to the service sector economy instead of mfg economy.

    https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-manufacturing-what-it-is-statistics-and-outlook-3305575
    Reasons for Decline
    The biggest reason for the decline is a shift to a service-based economy. Banking and other financial services began growing after 1999 when Congress repealed the Glass-Steagall Act, and the healthcare sector has also grown. Healthcare was 5% of the economy in 1960, but by 2018, it was up to 18%. In 1965, the government began subsidizing hospital costs when it created Medicare and Medicaid, which was one reason for rising health care costs. Health care services also responded to the aging baby boomer generation.

    I thought those policies were bad for USA, but we did them, we lost mfg jobs, but our economy still grew.
    So was I right or wrong about those policy decision?
     
    Last edited: May 23, 2020
  20. Mr.Incognito

    Mr.Incognito Well-Known Member

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    So you're not smart enough to see that Trump bad mouths China to get your vote but turns around and does lots of business with China to make himself richer. But yet it's the left thats wrong. Lol, come on man!!!
     
    Last edited: May 23, 2020
  21. Robert E Allen

    Robert E Allen Banned

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    Well i guess that better. Then inviting them in , bending over and lubing yourself up for them like the Clintons did..


    I'm all for people using China to make money..
     
  22. cd8ed

    cd8ed Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Less than 23 percent of polled Americans believe china is a “good guy”... And I am surprised it is even that high — I know of zero people that support china
    Where are you getting your numbers from?

    You realize that people can think trump is bad and simultaneously think china is bad, yes?
     
  23. Lil Mike

    Lil Mike Well-Known Member

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    I get that everything and all things are about Trump to you, but the flaw in that sort of obsession is that you didn't really add anything to the topic, because the topic is really less about Trump and more about the future direction of US economically in relation to China. I suspect your opinions on any of that is only based on being on the opposite side of Trump, because Trump.
     
  24. Lil Mike

    Lil Mike Well-Known Member

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    Weird, I didn't think I was mad at all. In fact if I were China I would probably be doing the same things they are doing, but that has nothing to do with my comment and question.

    That is to be expected.
     
    Last edited: May 23, 2020
  25. Lil Mike

    Lil Mike Well-Known Member

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    I'm not sure you can put down a "shift to a service based economy" down to specific polices.
     

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