Seniors will make Donald Trump a one-term President

Discussion in 'Political Opinions & Beliefs' started by Arkanis, May 28, 2020.

  1. fmw

    fmw Well-Known Member

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    Brilliant.
     
  2. perotista

    perotista Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Interesting. I've tended to concentrate on independents and haven't given age groups much thought. Yes, Trump won the 65 and older group 52-45 in 2016. checking over the RCP polls, that age group is actually going to Biden on an average of 47-45. If that holds up, that would be a 9 point swing from Trump to the Democrats, Biden in this case over Hillary.

    Another interesting group, whites who went for Trump 57-37 in 2016 are now polling, still for Trump but by a 49-39 margin. Another swing of 10 points away from Trump. You mention the coronavirus, so I checked the approval of Trump's policies. I found that with the 65 and older club, whites, much like independents which I follow closely, they're fairly split, for some, against some.

    I've come to the opinion this trend away from Trump, away from the GOP is based on more than just policy. More than what Trump has done as president or hasn't done. I think it has its roots in his very unpresidential behavior, his obnoxcious, uncouth persona. How he acts as president, his antic which are very unpresidential. That people in general are just getting tired of all of that.

    I seen this same trend among independents leading up to the 2018 midterms. A group that voted for Trump 46-42 over Hillary in 2016. Being basically split 50-50 on his policies, his over all job approval, even a 10 point advantage on the economy, but ending up voting 54-42 for the Democratic congressional candidates over the GOP congressional candidates. A swing of 16 points against Trump and the GOP.

    Personally, I think most folks outside of the Republican ranks, Trump supporters have tired on Trump's childish antics as president.
     
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  3. ECA

    ECA Well-Known Member

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    I just don't see Biden beating Trump. Both are buffoons. Both are train wrecks. But I think most people will stay with the devil they know, so to speak.
     
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  4. perotista

    perotista Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I seen a bumper sticker that made me burst out laughing on the way home yesterday. Short and simple. It read:

    ADULT 2020

    Perhaps more people than you suspect are tired of our current devil's childish antics and behavior as president.
     
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  5. spiritgide

    spiritgide Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Vegas sees it this way-

    upload_2020-5-29_7-44-34.png
    A minus (-) number is odds in favor, a plus (+) is odds against. The condition today is the same as it was a month ago; Biden is not gaining.
     
  6. Quantum Nerd

    Quantum Nerd Well-Known Member

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    As always, very good analysis.

    On top of what you said, I think there is an element of the current covid crisis that amplifies this trend. Seniors are bearing the brunt of the fallout from the crisis, in terms o the death count. Did Trump acknowledge their struggles, other than lip service? Express sympathy? No. Instead, the conservative message as a whole (not anything that Trump said in particular, but that's the attitude that is portrayed) is that seniors are expendable and need to take one for the team (i.e. Trump's re-election success). We'll see how far they'll follow him down that rabbit hole.
     
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  7. Quantum Nerd

    Quantum Nerd Well-Known Member

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    I agree, as last time, the Dems picked the worst candidate:

    -No excitement
    -Low energy
    -Age is showing
    -Establishment candidate
    -No new ideas
    -Gaffe machine

    If the Dems want to ensure that Trump gets another 4 years, they sure are trying hard.

    With all that said, if I could vote, I'd vote for Biden in a heartbeat over Trump.
     
  8. ECA

    ECA Well-Known Member

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    I hear you. Garbage in, garbage out. Frankly neither one of them deserve my vote. I'll be voting third party again.
     
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  9. perotista

    perotista Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I noticed that in the beginning Trump's approval record improved, then sunk back to normal. Around 44% is normal for him give or take a point or two.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

    Then in Trump's handling of the CoronaVirus, he has gone from a plus 6 down to a minus 11.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e..._trumps_handling_of_the_coronavirus-7088.html

    Yes, the CoronaVirus definitely plays a part in all of this. But I think it just reinforces the thoughts folks, seniors too that they had for quite a while. A sort of, "Yeah, see, I was right all along." So if one had any doubts, this helps alleviate them.
     
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  10. perotista

    perotista Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The democrats sure could have picked a worse candidate, they also could have picked a much better one. I've always said the democrats needed to pick a fresh young face, if that fresh young face was from flyover country so much the better.

    But in reality, the nomination boiled down to two old white men. One, you described aptly, the other was a self identified Democratic Socialist which most Americans wouldn't buy.

    https://news.gallup.com/poll/285563...utm_content=morelink&utm_campaign=syndication

    Can you imagine the GOP running clips of Sanders himself declaring him to be a Democratic Socialist 24/7 during the general election campaign? Biden became the lesser of two evils.
     
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  11. Golem

    Golem Well-Known Member Donor

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    Like the Russia collusion and the Ukraine extortion. And who knows what other modes of cheating he has been working on when he should be working on dealing with a pandemic.

    Whaddat?
     
  12. Golem

    Golem Well-Known Member Donor

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    Trump didn't have any federal guidelines when the pandemic hit NY. He just had it... "under control", he said. I guess in his small brain that meant he put a choke-hold on it or something.
     
  13. God & Country

    God & Country Well-Known Member

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    The same polls had Hillary Clinton by a landslide. November is a long ways away. The economy is going to come roaring back, Covid 19 still be a problem but most folks'll be back to work and there will be only the usual mail in voting which this time around will be under a microscope. Polls, schmolls, Trump is in the driver's seat and the crazy Democrats put him there.
     
  14. JakeStarkey

    JakeStarkey Well-Known Member

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    G & C, will the seniors vote Trump with a roaring stock market, 15% UE, and rampant covid deaths over 200,000?
     
  15. Golem

    Golem Well-Known Member Donor

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    That would have theoretically helped. If he had also followed other recommendations that Democrats in the state were also pressuring him to put in place. Like suspending special events and issuing a stay-at-home order. He didn't... and it didn't. Result: a third of Florida deaths have occurred in nursing homes. Just over 10% in NY. So Cuomo made a call that, in hindsight and given the lack of guidance and leadership by the Federal government, turned out to be bad. But it wasn't anywhere as bad as DeSantis'.

    The governor of Florida is such an incompetent idiot that he was waiting for Trump to order him to issue a stay-at-home order. And he only did so because the press pressured him to do so. Thank God for the Florida press! They saved thousands of lives.
     
    Last edited: May 29, 2020
  16. Pants

    Pants Well-Known Member

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    And it won't just be the seniors who have soured. The families of those who have died - the ones who couldn't hold their parents' hand as they died - won't be too quick to vote for Trump. The fact that he has yet to publicly acknowledge the dead and offer sincere condolences - as leaders have done in this country in the past - doesn't bode well either. A three day stint of lowered flags doesn't cut it. Not for people who are mourning. They looked for a leader and found none. I think their votes will stack up significantly against Trump.
     
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  17. Wildjoker5

    Wildjoker5 Well-Known Member

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    Maybe he should push for mail in voting if he believes its so easy to cheat huh?
     
  18. JakeStarkey

    JakeStarkey Well-Known Member

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    If he thought mail in voting could be cheated for the behalf of Republicans, he would push it in a heart beat.

    As is, he really believes in voter suppression.
     
  19. Wildjoker5

    Wildjoker5 Well-Known Member

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    I remember when the left put out a campaign add depicting the GOP shoving grandma off a cliff. It like rule 34, the democrats will find a way to politicize anything and everything.
     
  20. JakeStarkey

    JakeStarkey Well-Known Member

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    As do the Pubs, my friend.
     
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  21. Wildjoker5

    Wildjoker5 Well-Known Member

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    25% of all American deaths were in NYC, Cuomos state. Cuomo had an order to send Covid infected people back to nursing homes, Desantis did not and said they should go some where else.
     
  22. Wildjoker5

    Wildjoker5 Well-Known Member

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    They misrepresent the numbers. If someone in NY got sick in a nursing home, moved to a hospital and died, they didn't classify that as a nursing home death. FL did count those.
     
  23. Wildjoker5

    Wildjoker5 Well-Known Member

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    They had a $24 MILLION field hospital that never saw a single patient, why not send them there?
     
  24. Wildjoker5

    Wildjoker5 Well-Known Member

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    So FLs Governor is a genius because he didn't listen to Trump. Its funny, Cuomo claims its not his fault because he made an order based on the CDC's suggestion. But Cuomo also blames the nursing homes cause they Obeyed his ORDERS. Push the blame is the name of the lefts game.
     
  25. Golem

    Golem Well-Known Member Donor

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    It's where many right-wing pundit's brain resides, as proven by what comes out of their mouths.
     

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