Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Discussion in 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) News' started by Statistikhengst, Mar 14, 2020.

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  1. JakeStarkey

    JakeStarkey Well-Known Member

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    Apparently the heat, dryness, and wind as a combination do suppress it to a great deal.
     
    Last edited: May 29, 2020
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  2. Sanskrit

    Sanskrit Well-Known Member

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    O look, they are still LARPING a pandemic that never happened, while the corruption-fest of the largest Democrat Soprano Cities that -did- happen is now irrefutably DOA. Sad or funny... or a monstrous waste of propaganda money, maybe a combo!

    Do keep the LARP up for long enough and leave no doubt whatsoever among rational adults that it's mostly about the bolded.
     
  3. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    Unfortunately it is not suppressing it as much as you might imagine, Jake.

    Utah was at 2.4% yesterday and at 3.7% today which puts it in the top 5.
     
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  4. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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  5. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    HERE the entire posting for EOD the day before.

    During the run of the day on 2020-05-029, there were numerous analyses of size:

    USA EOD report for 2020-05-028, posted 2020-05-029, 15:00 GMT +2, #9580.
    Breakdown of C19 cases by continent (2020-05-028 ), posted 2020-05-029, 16:03 GMT +2, #9584.
    Underdecks series, #1: Colombia, posted 2020-05-029, 16:32 GMT +2, #9588.
    Underdecks series, #2: India, posted 2020-05-026, 21:06 GMT +2, #9596.
    USA update 001, 2020-05-029, 21:25 GMT +2, #9597.
    Worldwide update 001, 2020-05-029, 21:45 GMT +2, #9598.
    Small Russia update, 2020-05-029, 22:01 GMT +2, #9599.

    NOTE: to confirm this quick analysis or to sort the date as you wish, use the following links to work the table on your own:
    - the WORLDOMETER website for today, or
    - the WAYBACK MACHINE when searching for today's date in the future. In order to to that, search for one day later than you want, then use the "yesterday" function at the top their large excel table.

    COVID-19 worldwide statistics EOD Report for Friday, 2020-05-029 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):

    ******6,026,418******
    The world passes the 6 million mark. Doubling time = 32 days.

    +125,511 cases today over yesterday.
    There are 113 nations with at least 100 COVID-19 cases.

    There are now 366,421 COVID-19 deaths worldwide.
    1,212 Americans, 1,180 Brazilians & 447 Mexicans died from COVID-19 on this day.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:
    2020-05-029 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 000.png

    Of course, you can see the percentages and growth rates for yourselves. 2020-05-029 was record-setting in two ways:

    -the most new confirmed daily C19 cases to-date, surpassing the record set just the day before.
    -even if the USA had not recorded even one single new C19 case, worldwide, we would still have come over 100,000 new C19 cases!

    Also, you can see from the screenshot that we passed the 3 million mark on Monday, 2020-04-027, so the rough doubling from 3.01 million on that day to 6.03 million total C19 cases on 2020-05-029 took 32 days, just over one month. There is good reason to believe that the daily addition of at least 100,000 cases is going to become routine, so the possibility is very strong that we will be at over 9 million C19 cases (worldwide) at the end of June, 2020. In other words, the curve has flattened, it is logistical instead of exponential, but we will still be adding a huge amount of cases (and deaths) for a long time to go, presumably until either a vaccine has been discovered and adminstered, or the disease burns out on its own, which is expected when humanity has achieved at least 70% "herd immunity". 70% of the world's population is about 5.5 billion people.....

    Total cases per country, descending (countries circa +150 C19 cases and above):
    2020-05-029 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 001.png
    2020-05-029 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 002.png
    2020-05-029 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 003.png
    2020-05-029 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 004.png
    2020-05-029 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 005.png
    2020-05-029 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 006.png


    In terms of total cases per country, there are 113 nations in the "thousand club". 5 other nations are at between +900 and +1,000, they will soon be crossing over that line. Among them is Ethiopia, which grew +137 cases in just one day.

    Of those
    113, 50 are in the "10,000 club. Further, 12 of those 50 are at 100,000 or more. Chile and Canada are both around 90,000 and both will be passing the 100,000 mark in the next week. Brazil will likely cross over a half million cases on Sunday, 2020-05-031.

    In terms of the countries with the most new cases: for the third day in a row, Brazil lead with the most new cases with the USA at rank 2. Russia, India, Peru, Chile and Mexico took rankings 3-7 in daily C19 cases for the second day in a row.


    A record breaking 67 countries had +100 or more new cases, 1/3 of all nations in the world. The day before, it was 63. Of those 63, 19 countries had +1000 or more new cases; the day before, it was also 19. And Canada was just under the +1,000 line. As indicated above, even without the USA's +25,069 cases, if the USA had not recorded even one single case for 2020-05-029, the world would still have come over +100,000 new cases for this day.

    In terms of total deaths per country, descending, there are
    SEVENTY nations with 100 total deaths or more. That is 1/3 of all nations on the Earth. Of those 70, TWENTY-SIX nations have over +1,000 COVID-19 deaths to date.

    In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths, the USA was at rank 1 (+1,212) and almost tied with Brasil, at rank 2 (+1,180), then Mexico at rank 3 (+447); a huge amount of the dying across the world on 2020-05-029 happened in the Americas.

    8 nations reported over +100 daily deaths (it was also 8 the day before). 5 of those 8 countries are from the Americas.

    In terms of Total Tests administered per country, 12 nations have administered more than 1 million tests apiece. The USA has now performed
    16.8 million tests, while Russia has performed 10.0 million tests. Brazil, which is now rank 2 among all nations in terms of COVID-19 infections, has performed only 930,000 tests. Just imagine how many more positives Brazil would now be showing were it to test on the scale of the USA or Russia.... and btw, Peru and Venezuela have performed more C19 tests than Brazil. Because so many other nations are starting to ramp up their testing, here the rankings for the top 55 countries:

    2020-05-029 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 007 - Testing 001.png
    2020-05-029 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 007 - Testing 002.png

    When I started looking at this listing about a month ago, Vietnam, which has currently tested 275,000 times, was number 25 or 26 in the rankings. It also was at about 250,000 back then. Now, Vietnam is rank 50, so you can see that slowly but surely, a lot of nations have ramped up their testing. Also, for the first time ever, we now have two nations in the world with over 10 million tests administered apiece.


    Facit:
    on 2020-05-029 world came well over the 6 million mark. Even as I write this analysis, on 2020-05-030, we are already at 6.03 million, so doubtless we will hit 6.1 million at the end of this day.

    Now at +104,542 deaths, the USA surpassed a gruesome milestone in our world's history, one that no country should ever reach. John Hopkins University caught up with WORLDOMETER on 2020-05-027 and confirmed what WORLDOMETER already recorded on 2020-05-026: that my homeland went over the 100,000 death-mark. In the USA analysis, I had done a month long extrapolation, from 2020-04-028 until 2020-05-026; said extrapolation worked out exactly as predicted. At the USA analysis for 2020-05-026 (link at the top of this analysis), I started a new extrapolation....

    The world-wide curve has most definitely flattened, which was the primary goal of mitigation. The very low growth rate in total cases is a good sign. The question now is: how long will the plateau last? Let's see what the planned testing of the entire cities of Wuhan (China) and Los Angeles (USA) bring.


    -Stat
     
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  6. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    HERE the COVID-19 USA numbers for the day before.

    And now the COVID-19 USA numbers for Friday, 2020-05-029 in the USA (EOD = GMT +0):

    COVID-19 USA statistics EOD Report for Friday, 2020-05-029 in the USA (EOD = GMT +0):

    *1,793,530*
    +25,069 cases today over the day before.

    104,542 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA.
    1,212 Americans out of the total above died from COVID-19 on this day.
    519,569 people have recovered, 1,169,417 are, however, still sick.

    2020-05-029 COVID-19 EOD USA 000.png

    Note: as of now, in order to make this analysis more concise, I will only provide one set of screenshots from WORLDOMETER, for the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases, in descending order. In order to confirm my quick analysis, please go directly to the WORLDOMETER website today or to the WAYBACK MACHINE after today. If you use the wayback machine after today, search for one day later than the date you want, then use the "yesterday" function at the top their large excel table. This way, you have more control over what you want to see and when you want to see it.

    Note that the number of daily deaths on Friday, 2020-05-029 track extremely closely to the daily deaths from the Friday before.

    Note also that, in the worldwide analysis for 2020-05-029, the posting directly above this one, I noted that for the first time ever, without the +25,000 new C19 cases recorded in the USA, the world would still have gone over +100,000 new C19 cases on that day. So, our role vis-a-vis C19, compared to the world, is still large, but not nearly as large as one month ago.


    COVID-19 in the USA, by state, total confirmed cases, descending:
    2020-05-029 COVID-19 EOD USA 001.png
    2020-05-029 COVID-19 EOD USA 002.png
    2020-05-029 COVID-19 EOD USA 003.png
    Total confirmed C-19 cases:

    45 out of 50 states have over 1,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases. VT (975) is next up. 30 of those 45 plus Veterans affairs (13,657) now have more than 10,000 cases, so actually, it's 31, and Veterans Affairs is really rank 29. Also, the number of infected military personnel is moving toward the 10,000 mark. At 9,764, 9,464, 9,264 and 9,236, respectively, KS, KY, UT and DE will be crossing over the 10,000 line shortly.

    The state of NY (currently: 377,714) alone had more COVID-19 cases than any other nation in the world except the USA itself, of which NY is of course a part, until 2020-05-025. Since then, both Brazil and Russia have surpassed the numbers from the state of NY.

    New daily cases:

    9 states reported over +1,000 new cases on 2020-05-029: CA, IL, NY, TX, MD, FL, VA, NC and NJ. The day before, it was 8 states.

    37 states reported more than +100 new cases; the day before, it was 35, plus DC.

    1 state reported no new cases: LA


    New daily deaths:

    I think this is the most important category when looking to see where other hotspots are emerging and since deaths lag behind new cases, the two rankings are often not the same.

    1 state reported more than 100 daily deaths: NJ. The day before, it was 3.

    41 of 50 states reported at least one death. The day before, it was 44.

    Total deaths:
    40 states have more than 100 total deaths. That's 4/5 of the nation in terms of numbers of US states. In terms of population, it's far more than that.

    Of those 40, 19 states in the Union now have a total of more than 1,000 COVID-19 deaths, with MN having crossed over the 1,000 line on 2020-05-029.

    Yesterday, I wrote:
    At 919 and 885 current deaths, respectively, NC and AZ are next to cross over into this gruesome category.

    With 29,751 total deaths at current, the state of NY has more deaths to mourn than every other COUNTRY on the Earth save the USA itself, UK and Italy. However, at the rate that Brazil (currently: 27,944) is moving in the rankings, Brazil will soon have many, many more deaths to mourn than NY state. I suspect that this will happen within the next 2 days, maximum.

    On 2020-05-029, we ended the day with 104,542 US deaths from COVID-19. Now, all that as raw numbers may not really be getting into peoples' heads quite yet, so here is the listing of US-American cities with a projected 2020 population of between 100,000-106,500:

    [​IMG]

    As of 2020-05-028, this means that we lost the equivalent of ALL of Lakeland, never to get it back again. Think about that.

    NEW EXTRAPOLATION (will start 2020-06-001):

    Let's assume that as of 2020-06-001, we are at 105,000 dead in the USA. Sure looks like that is going to easily happen, just as the extrapolation predicted. Actually, it looks like we will be closer to 106,000, maybe 107,000. Wait and see.

    OK, what happens if, on the average, instead of 1,400 dead per day, let's take 1/2 of that, "just" 700 dead per day every day from the beginning of June, 2020, until the end of this year?

    This is simple math: from June 1, 2020 through December 31, 2020, there are 214 days (7 months at 30 days plus four months with one extra day, the 31st: July, August, October, December). 214 * 700 = 149,800 + 105,000 = 254,800 US-American deaths by the end of 2020 if the average daily deaths is just one-half of what I extrapolated from April 28-May 31, 2020.


    Mitigate. Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the new extrapolation, starting June 1, 2020, to happen.


    -Stat
     
    Last edited: May 30, 2020
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  7. gnoib

    gnoib Well-Known Member

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    I wonder what impact the demonstrations and riots will have.
     
  8. truth and justice

    truth and justice Well-Known Member

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    Huge impact. Their stupidity will become obvious in about two weeks time.
     
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  9. JakeStarkey

    JakeStarkey Well-Known Member

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    That is in the northern counties. The southwestern counties are almost completely infection free.

    We still wear masks outside in public, wash our hands often, and warn off people if they get too close.
     
    Last edited: May 30, 2020
  10. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    It won't be good. Just like the ****ed up red-hat demos, these people also didn't do social distancing, so surely a number of new infections and literally 100s of 1000s of new contact-chains have been created. Absolutely impossible to contact trace.
     
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  11. LangleyMan

    LangleyMan Well-Known Member

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    Yes, there's plenty of evidence that sunlight, dry air, and heat dramatically cuts the time SARS-CoV-2 remains on surfaces.
     
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  12. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    "Future Upperdecks" Series, #1: Ethiopia, Central African Republic, Mauritania and Malawi

    Target lookback date: 2020-06-028, for 2020-06-027.

    In the worldwide analysis from this morning, in the 4th and 5th screenshots from the WORLDOMETER countries listing, I highlighted some smaller countries in terms of total C19 cases (confirmed):

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    In the 4th screenshot, which is the top graphic here, I highlighted two countries that are just under the 1,000-mark in confirmed C19 cases: Ethiopia and the Central African Republic (CAR). Now would be a good time for some quick head-math or easy back of the envelope math:

    Ethiopia now has 968 cases. It grew +137 cases on 2020-05-029. To calculate the growth rate, subtract the new cases from the current total, and that is, of course, the current total from the day before. Then, divide 137 by the total from the day before and there you have your growth rate.

    968-137=831. 137/831=16.49%. Therefore, the growth rate for Ethiopia from 2020-05-028 to 2020-05-029 was 16.49%. Anything from +9% above over a substantial amount of time is considered exponential. Now, look at the total tests performed thus far in Ethiopia: 101,581. 968/101,581=0.95% of all tests administered in that land ended up with positive results.

    Sounds small, you think? It is, compared to the USA. In the USA, when you divide the number of positives by the total number of tests administered, you get 10.67%.

    1,793,530 / 16,810,778 =10.67%

    That's the good news for Ethopia. The bad news for Ethiopia is that the growth rate in cases in the USA for the same time frame was 1.42%, not 16.49%.

    Next up: CAR. Same process: the growth rate for CAR, which now has 874 C19 cases and grew +119 in the same time frame as Ethiopia = 15.76%.

    Now, go to the next screenshot: 2 countries with a very low total of C19 cases - to date: Mauritania and Malawi. Here is something that may really surprise you. First, both growth rates:

    Mauritania: 423, +77 = GR 22.25%
    Malawi: 273, +70 = GR 34.48%

    Also, compared to the total number of tests administered:

    Maritania: 423 / 2,583 = 16.38% of all administered tests were positive
    Malawi: 273 / 3,372 = 8.10% of all administered tests were positive.



    So, let's compare of all four "underdecks" nations compared to the USA, including the death rate as well:

    C19 case growth rate:
    USA: +1.42%
    CAR: +15.76%
    Ethiopia: +16.49%
    Mauritania: +22.25%
    Malawi: +34.48%

    % of positives compared to total number of administered tests:
    Ethiopia: 0.95%
    CAR: 6.00%
    Malawi: 8.10%
    USA: 10.67%
    Mauritania: 16.38%

    Death rate:
    CAR: 0.11%
    Ethopia: 0.82%
    Malawi: 1.47%
    Mauritania: 4.72%
    USA: 5.82%

    Why did I pay so much attention to these comparatively small nations? I mean, after all, their combined case totals (2,538, just about the same as the US state of North Dakota at present) account for only 0.042% of all cases in the world. Ok, that's pretty darned small. And the total deaths from these four nations (33) account for only 0.0095% (or 0.001%). But what happens if these nations continue to build cases at their current growth rates over the next 30 days? Well, I plugged that into a new tab in my online excel table, and what happened may surprise you:


    2020-05-030 COVID-19 exponential calculations.png

    Next to the daily totals (directly under each country's name), the next column to the right shows the daily added cases, based on the fixed growth rate that you see in the title row. The days in the start/end date row that have an X in them and are highlight in a light navy-blue color represent the days after the 1st day where the first rough doubling occurs. Two Xs means that the doubling happened at somewhere between those two days, which was the case for all four nations listed here.

    We can see that were CAR to continue to have this kind of growth rate every day for the 30 days in this cycle, then that nation would land at 60,913 C9 cases, between where Belgium and Pakistan are right now.

    Ethiopia, by this trajectory, would land at 80,955 C19 cases, right under where Mexico is right now.

    Mauritania, which currently has only about half the cases that Ethiopia has right now, would land at 143,403 C19 cases, right under where Iran is right now.

    But the real knaller is Malawi, currently with only 273 cases but a whalloping 34.48% growth rate: at this trajectory, little itty-bitty Malawi would land at 1,469,725 cases, under only the USA at current!

    Of course, no nation has had a perfectly consistent growth rate every day and I do not expect these nations to keep up this rate, but it is generally indicative of what happens when a country really starts to make the first "jump", as testing increases and the first deaths occur. It is also exactly the reason why I was so concerned when the USA was showing these kinds of growth rates through most all of the month of March, 2020, which can be proven here:

    2020-05-030 COVID-19 exponential calculations compared to the USA March 2020.png

    Again, so that one on misunderstands me, I do not think that Ethiopia, CAR, Mauritania or Malawi are going to be posting these kind of horrific numbers on 2020-06-027, but the mind-exercise is there to illustrate how exponential rates work and how things look after a period of time that I think we can all relate to, namely, the lunar month.

    Yesterday, I started the "Underdecks" Series, for instance, this posting for INDIA. That series takes a two-month look into the past and is based on the principle of hindsight.

    This is more like a "future Upperdecks" series, looking one month into the future, based on foresight instead of hindsight, so you can be absolutely guaranteed that I will be posting and comparing the totals for these four (currently) small nations when 2020-06-027 has come and gone.

    I there is a smaller nation on the list that you would like to see get this kind of statistical work-up, just PM me and let me know and when time permits, I will gladly do it.

    Please remember, two months ago, nobody, and I mean NOBODY was thinking about little Belarus. Now, Belarus has almost 41,000 C19 cases.

    And as @gnoib knows: "Kleinvieh macht auch Mist, gell!"

    -Stat
     
    Last edited: May 30, 2020
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  13. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    In what can only be seen as exceedingly good new, until now today, Spain has reported only +664 new C19 cases and only +4 deaths!
    For Spain, that is almost like a taste of Heaven, when you consider what the Spaniards went through the last 2 months.
    Also, Germany only reported +4 deaths today, for the second day in a row, truly good news.

    Here a look at the top European nations to-date. France has not published data yet:

    2020-05-030 COVID-19 Europe outlook.png
     
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  14. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    In the USA, we have now crossed over 105,000 deaths from COVID-19, this happened sometime in the last 15 minutes:

    2020-05-030 COVID-19 USA 105000 deaths.png
     
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  15. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) announced the results of his COVID-19 antibody test: positive.

    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/another-senator-tests-positive-for-coronavirus-antibodies

    He is planning to donate plasma to help fight the virus.

    Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) also announced that both he and his wife tested positive for the same kind of antibody test.

    That makes for three Senators total (Rand Paul was the first) to have been infected with C19.

    Both Casey and Kaine will continue to wear masks. Paul refuses to wear one, because of course he is an *******.
     
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  16. LangleyMan

    LangleyMan Well-Known Member

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    The protest and rioting will end up killing a lot of people.
     
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  17. Sallyally

    Sallyally Well-Known Member Donor

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    Perhaps their anger is greater than their fear of dying from the virus.
     
  18. LangleyMan

    LangleyMan Well-Known Member

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    It's not about them, but instead about the killing of other people by their reckless behavior.
     
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  19. gnoib

    gnoib Well-Known Member

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    That's exactly what I worry about. Even worse since many have travelled a long way to join the protests and riots. Me thinks in 2 weeks we will see a new wave because of it.
     
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  20. Sallyally

    Sallyally Well-Known Member Donor

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    True, but still their anger may be greater than that.
     
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  21. Sallyally

    Sallyally Well-Known Member Donor

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    There are probably new waves coming anyway.
     
  22. crank

    crank Well-Known Member

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    No of course not. It's not the stuff inside your house you need to worry about, it's the stuff that comes in from outside. ANYTHING at all that comes from outside the home, must be decontaminated prior to it getting inside the home. Deliveries, groceries, take-out, mail, etc. Anything and everything. That means full decontamination of external packaging (followed by a couple of hours in the sun where possible) if needed same day, or three days in quarantine then basic wipe down of exterior packaging etc. Anyone leaving the house to go to public places like supermarkets etc, must fully decontaminate themselves prior to coming back inside. No outside shoes to come, and all clothes straight to washer and person straight in shower. Preferably don't take wallets/bags when out (put drivers lic, credit card, and phone in separate ziplocks .. and don't use phone unless dire emergency. credit card can still be swiped/passed through ziplock).

    It's not about living alone, it's about having the sense to do the bare minimum while at home. Of course if no one is leaving the house, none of the above applies ... nor does personal distancing inside the house. That's obviously the best situation, because you can totally relax other than for deliveries (and if these are handled properly they pose no threat). Again, it's only if someone is regularly leaving the house to go to public places that they need to be exceptionally careful while out, and they need to stay 6 feet away from others in the household as much as possible. In a city with high rates of community infection, they should not really be sharing a bedroom, or remaining in rooms occupied by others for more than a few minutes at a time. It's basic stuff, nothing complicated. Only requires adjustment to daily habits, and it's temporary. Rather make that small effort than kill a relative, no?

    And yes, unfortunately it's exactly those 'family times' which have killed tens of thousands. A family member picks it up outside, and brings it home. That person fails to follow protocols, and so someone they love dies.
     
    Last edited: May 30, 2020
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  23. crank

    crank Well-Known Member

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    Sure, but there are more densely populated and much poorer places, where it's not nearly as bad.

    So to be accurate we need to remove those two factors as keys. While both density and poverty are factors but only to a degree - and the degree in America is far greater than the density and poverty indicate. That leaves us with the general health of the populace as a confounding factor. There is also the very sad reality of govts failing to institute emergency martial law in these high risk locations.
     
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  24. crank

    crank Well-Known Member

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    Wow, they're lucky. Loads of our schools don't even have that. You just make a run for it in heavy rain :p
     
  25. crank

    crank Well-Known Member

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    I don't think it has anything to do with ignorance or education, personally. Northern Europe is a pretty well educated and brainy part of the world, and they're being hammered by COVID. Conversely, there's plenty of 'low education' and 'ignorance' in some of the poor nations which are succeeding in suppressing this virus.

    There's a clear difference in the behaviour of both Govts and people - which apparently has nothing to do with wealth, power, or education. More will be learned going forward, but I suspect there will be some nasty surprises in this area.
     
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