Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

She's right .. the future is tech. But it's not limited to computers and engineering ... it's agricultural sciences, medical sciences, technical trades and skills, etc etc. The false golden age (it was never sustainable, but far too many people imagined it was) of 'soft skills' being able to keep you fed and housed are over.

 

All politicians etc who withheld or falsified numbers, should be subjected to manslaughter charges.

 

Most black people aren't rioting. They have every right to be just as angry as the thugs burning down businesses in their own community.

 

You Aussies are hard people and toughen up your kids by making them run for it.

 

Todays charts. Almost 1/2 million tests.
The US came back down, but it's pretty clear we are not going below 5% positives or about 1/4 of our peak. If we were to scale that to deaths that would put us at 500 a day-182,000 a year.


Georgia continues to spike.

A big single day jump in Florida. I'm starting to wonder if it takes a month for the relaxation of social distancing to show up.

 

Yes, more deaths. Why should someone born and raised in America feel the safest place for his family to ride out the pandemic is another country? But it is...

 

Not really ... we're just cheap! Our schools are a study in minimalism, for no other reason. Not air-conditioned, many also unheated, and exposed to all weather. Because kids don't need comfort, apparently! Keeping in mind that climate control is still fairly unusual in Australia .. in the 24/7 sense that Americans know it. We tend to put up with much colder/hotter homes before resorting to heating or cooling, so kids are used to it. And of course our houses are considerably smaller and less 'salubrious' than American houses, so the crappy school buildings and lack of comforts isn't a shock.

 

I wonder why @Sanskrit would continue to pretend that a virus which has killed over 105,000 Americans in 8 weeks should be thought of like a fantasy game.

 

When it's really hot, I'll take air conditioning.

 

We sometimes get above 45c here, but tend to turn the air on only at the peak of days over 40c. It's just not affordable to run air conditioning around the clock here, and definitely not every summer day! Power is super expensive, and even for those of us on solar, we can't waste it on 'comfort'. Many people won't even use AC when it gets to 40 - they'll just go to cinema or shopping mall to save on power. Most are okay without AC when it's in the high 30's, as long as we close all windows and doors, blinds etc by 8am to keep out the hot daytime air and radiant heat. We're taught young, to leave doors and windows open overnight (we have good insect screens here!), to allow cool night air to drop temperature of indoor walls/floors/furniture etc - which then act as cooling mass til mid-afternoon. It keeps us reasonably comfortable indoors til at least lunch time. When you grow up with these habits they don't seem onerous. We're lucky that in much of the country it's perfectly safe to leave windows wide open overnight. In fact very few close windows at night - we all seem to have some sort of genetic addiction to draughts, even in winter .. LOL

 

I don't know if poor health makes getting COVID-19 more likely, but we know it leads to worse outcomes.

I suppose you're suggesting they have a forced quarantine.

 

It's not that difficult for people with single-family homes to take delivery of items and wipe down the packages, or simply set them aside for several days. Of course, you don't wear clothes inside your home that may have been contaminated while you were out.

It depends upon the amount and nature of outside contacts, as well as the amount of virus in the community, to decide how much distancing inside your home is needed.

I don't see the need for much concern on Vancouver Island that has nearly 1m residents.

 

What caught my attention in that excellent presentation was, as usual, the population anomaly.

CAR 4.8 million
Mauritania 4.6 million
Malawi 19 million
Ethiopia 115 million

So I turned to the CIA Factbook to do a little background research.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ct.html

Putting aside the differences in reported populations between WoM and the CIA Factbook, which are not sufficiently significant to quibble over IMO, the only major discrepancy is that Ethiopia has a population that is significantly larger than the other 3 combined.

Urbanization seems to be almost an inverse factor when related to population and health expenditure is minimal while the risk of infectious diseases on the high side. Obesity is almost negligible in comparison to western nations.

Life expectancy ranges from a low of 54 to a high of 68 but every nation had less than 4% of their population 65+ and those in the 55-64 range are all less than 5% of the populations.

So what does this tell us about what might occur now that these nations are about to see increases in Covid infections?

Their high risk senior populations are small in comparison to western nations but HIV/AIDS is another risk factor that is prevalent in Africa albeit the numbers above seem to be random rather than consistent in this regard ranging from less than 1% to over 9% across these 4 nations.

It is entirely possible that the HIV/AIDs Pandemic has wiped out most of those most vulnerable to Covid19 and if this is the case then the Infections could well explode while the deaths remain lower than expected. For anyone who is high risk the odds of being hospitalized are on the low side given the minimal healthcare expenditures in all of these nations.

What I suspect is going to be the single most important factor of all is disinformation about the virus. We have seen for ourselves what has happened here and just as there was disinformation about HIV/AIDs in Africa the same will apply to Covid19.

More people will probably die from ignorance about social distancing, hand washing and the use of masks than would otherwise be the case however the pool of those who are most vulnerable is smaller and that will be a limiting factor.

 

I haven't posted on this thread in some time. The past few days, some other news has taken the attention away from Covid-19, while I had assumed that the pandemic would wane during the summer in the places most affected by it. My assumption on the issue has not been really borne out by what has been happening, but regardless, let me post this recent video which focuses on Iran and Iranian health care workers on the front lines fighting the pandemic.

 

I conclude that the economic system which tolerates ENTRENCHED RACE-RELATED DISADVANTAGE is responsible for fueling the present anarchy in the US (the unlawful homicide of a black man was merely the catalyst which lit the 'fire' of continuing underlying resentment).

So now we witness a 'double whammy', as the protests spread the virus.

All down to the fact that Conservatives like to say an individual's economic circumstances are a matter of "personal responsibility".

Life, of course, is not that simple.

 

They are talking openly about the likelihood of the second wave and how Iran will be prepared. That’s good and a very realistic attitude.

 

I'm just going to continue staying in doors and staying healthy and hydrated and hoping to keep missing the bug.

 

Very powerful and moving

Thank you for sharing

We will all pray that Iran is spared a second wave

Stay safe

 

How the people in the UK are responding to lifting of some restrictions:


Getting to and leaving that beach



I wonder how many of these people have been saying that they can't go back to work because it is too dangerous or have been saying that they can't send their children back to school because they don't want to take the risk that the child will bring the virus into their home

 

HERE the entire posting for EOD the day before.

During the run of the day on 2020-05-030, there were two analyses of size:
USA EOD report for 2020-05-029, posted 2020-05-030, 10:51 GMT +2, #9606.
"Future Upperdecks" Series, #1: Ethiopia, Central African Republic, Mauritania and Malawi, posted 2020-05-030, 19:00 GMT +2, #9612. Target lookback date: 2020-06-028 for 2020-06-027.

NOTE: to confirm this quick analysis or to sort the date as you wish, use the following links to work the table on your own:
- the WORLDOMETER website for today, or
- the WAYBACK MACHINE when searching for today's date in the future. In order to to that, search for one day later than you want, then use the "yesterday" function at the top their large excel table.

​

COVID-19 worldwide statistics EOD Report for Saturday, 2020-05-030 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):

******6,150,483******
+124,065 cases today over yesterday.
There are 114 nations with at least 100 COVID-19 cases.
There are now 370,506 COVID-19 deaths worldwide.
1,015 Americans, 890 Brazilians & 371 Mexicans died from COVID-19 on this day.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

Of course, you can see the percentages and growth rates for yourselves. 2020-05-030 was record-setting in two ways:

-the second highest number of C19 daily cases ever and the second day in a row where the world hung right around +125,000 new C19 cases. A harbinger of things to come?
-for the second day in a row, even if the USA had not recorded even one single new C19 case, worldwide, we would still have come over 100,000 new C19 cases!

The rough doubling from 3.01 million on 2020-04-27 to 6.03 million total C19 cases on 2020-05-029 took 32 days, just over one month. There is good reason to believe that the daily addition of at least 100,000 cases is going to become routine, so the possibility is very strong that we will be at over 9 million C19 cases (worldwide) at the end of June, 2020, and at the current rate of circa 125,000 per day, it is actually possible that we hit or exceed the 10 million mark. In other words, the curve has flattened, it is logistical instead of exponential, but we will still be adding a huge amount of cases (and deaths) for a long time to go, presumably until either a vaccine has been discovered and adminstered, or the disease burns out on its own, which is expected when humanity has achieved at least 70% "herd immunity". 70% of the world's population is about 5.5 billion people.....

Total cases per country, descending (countries circa +25 C19 cases and above):
​

In terms of total cases per country, there are 114 nations in the "thousand club", with Ethiopia having gone over the 1,000 line. Ethiopia was also noted in the new report series linked at the top of this analysis ("Future Upperdecks"), you may find it to be interesting reading. 5 other nations are at between +900 and +1,000, they will soon be crossing over that line. Among them is CAR (Central African Republic), which will likely cross over the 1,000 line today.

Under the 1,000 mark, you will see that I highlighted 7 nations and in some cases also made an arrow through the statistic to the total number of administered cases. Referring back to the new series "Future Upperdecks", those are the 7 nations that I will be focusing on later today in installment 2 of that series. If you take a cursory look, I think you will see why.

Of those 114, 52 are in the "10,000 club, with Oman and Kazhakstan having having crossed over the 10,000 line on 2020-05-030. Currently at 9,855, Nigeria is next. I did an analysis of Nigeria in the worldwide analysis on 2020-04-23, five weeks ago. On that day, Nigeria had only 873 C19 cases, so you can see, alone in Nigeria, the C19 load has grown more than 10-fold.

Finally, 12 of those 50 are at 100,000 or more. Chile and Canada are both above 90,000 and both will be passing the 100,000 mark in the next week. Both Mexico and Saudi Arabia have crossed over China and will soon follow Chile and Canada.

Yesterday, I wrote:

On 2020-05-030, Brasil landed at 498,440, so this prediction may have already come true by the time I've finished writing this analysis.

In terms of the countries with the most new cases: for the fourth day in a row, Brazil lead with the most new cases with the USA at rank 2, but this time, with 30,000 over the USA's slightly more than 23,000, it was a wide lead. Russia, India, Peru, Chile and Mexico took rankings 3-7 in daily C19 cases for the second day in a row.

62 countries had +100 or more new cases, a little less than 1/3 of all nations in the world. The day before, it was 67. Of those 62, 18 countries had +1000 or more new cases, among them, little Kuwait; the day before, it was 19. South Africa's daily case load has almost doubled over the last 2 weeks. As indicated above, even without the USA's +23,290 cases, if the USA had not recorded even one single case for 2020-05-030, the world would still have come over +100,000 new cases for this day.

In terms of total deaths per country, descending, there are SEVENTY nations with 100 total deaths or more. That is 1/3 of all nations on the Earth. Of those 70, TWENTY-SIX nations have over +1,000 COVID-19 deaths to date.

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths, the USA was at rank 1 (+1,015), Brasil, at rank 2 (+890), then Mexico at rank 3 (+371); a huge amount of the dying across the world on 2020-05-030 happened in the Americas.

8 nations reported over +100 daily deaths (it was also 8 the day before). 5 of those 8 countries are from the Americas, the same five as over the last number of days.

In terms of Total Tests administered per country, 13 nations have administered more than 1 million tests apiece, with Peru having crossed over the million-mark. The USA has now performed 17.2 million tests (500,000 more than the day before) while Russia has performed 10.3 million tests (300,000 more than the day before). Brazil, which is now rank 2 among all nations in terms of COVID-19 infections, has performed only 930,000 tests. Just imagine how many more positives Brazil would now be showing were it to test on the scale of the USA or Russia.... and btw, Peru and Venezuela have performed more C19 tests than Brazil. Because so many other nations are starting to ramp up their testing, here the rankings for the top 27 countries:



When I started looking at this listing about a month ago, Vietnam, which has currently tested 275,000 times, was number 25 or 26 in the rankings. It also was at about 250,000 back then. Now, Vietnam is rank 50, so you can see that slowly but surely, a lot of nations have ramped up their testing. Also, for the first time ever, we now have two nations in the world with over 10 million tests administered apiece.

Facit: on 2020-05-030 world came in right between 6.1 and 6.2 million total C19 cases.

Now at +105,557 deaths, the USA has long surpassed a gruesome milestone in our world's history, one that no country should ever reach. John Hopkins University caught up with WORLDOMETER on 2020-05-027 and confirmed what WORLDOMETER already recorded on 2020-05-026: that my homeland went over the 100,000 death-mark. In the USA analysis, I had done a month long extrapolation, from 2020-04-028 until 2020-05-026; said extrapolation worked out exactly as predicted. At the USA analysis for 2020-05-026 (link at the top of this analysis), I started a new extrapolation.... this means that 200,000 total US deaths may come upon us sooner than many may be thinking possible.

The world-wide curve has most definitely flattened, which was the primary goal of mitigation. The very low growth rate in total cases is a good sign. The question now is: how long will the plateau last? Let's see what the planned testing of the entire cities of Wuhan (China) and Los Angeles (USA) bring.


-Stat

 

HERE the COVID-19 USA numbers for the day before.

And now the COVID-19 USA numbers for Saturday, 2020-05-030 in the USA (EOD = GMT +0):

COVID-19 USA statistics EOD Report for Saturday, 2020-05-030 in the USA (EOD = GMT +0):

*1,816,820*
+23,290 cases today over the day before.
105,557 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA.
1,015 Americans out of the total above died from COVID-19 on this day.
535,238 people have recovered, 1,176,025 are, however, still sick.​

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

In order to confirm my quick analysis, please go directly to the WORLDOMETER website today or to the WAYBACK MACHINE after today. If you use the wayback machine after today, search for one day later than the date you want, then use the "yesterday" function at the top their large excel table. This way, you have more control over what you want to see and when you want to see it.

Note that the number of daily deaths on Saturday, 2020-05-030 tracks closely to the daily deaths from the Saturday before. To me, it looks less like a downward curve from the week before and more like a plateau. Wait and see.

Note also that, in the worldwide analysis for 2020-05-030, the posting of mine above this one, I noted that for the second time ever, without the +23,000 new C19 cases recorded in the USA, the world would still have gone over +100,000 new C19 cases on that day. So, our role vis-a-vis C19, compared to the world, is still large, but not nearly as large as one month ago.

COVID-19 in the USA, by state, total confirmed cases, descending:
​

Total confirmed C-19 cases:​

45 out of 50 states have over 1,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases. VT (977) is crawling slowly up to the 1,000 line. 30 of those 45 plus Veterans affairs (13,657 - no change from the day before) now have more than 10,000 cases, so actually, it's 31, and Veterans Affairs is really rank 29. Also, the number of infected military personnel is moving toward the 10,000 mark. At 9,764 (no change from the day before), 9,704, 9,533 and 9,422, respectively, KS, KY, UT and DE will be crossing over the 10,000 line shortly.

The state of NY (currently: 378,951) alone had more COVID-19 cases than any other nation in the world except the USA itself, of which NY is of course a part, until 2020-05-025. Since then, both Brazil and Russia have surpassed the numbers from the state of NY. As of June, I won't be noting this anymore.

New daily cases:​

6 states reported over +1,000 new cases on 2020-05-029: CA, IL, TX, NY, VA and MD. The day before, it was 9 states. At +3,139 cases, CA accounted for 13.48% of the daily new C19 cases in the US. Sounds huge, but actually, it is pretty commensurate with CA's % of the overall population of the USA. CA posted 2.5 times MORE new cases than NY, which was rank 4 this time. It cannot be overstated that if a second wave hits California (pop: 40 million) unprepared, we could see untold deaths from this state alone. At +944 new cases, NC was just under the 1,000 line.

36 states +DC reported more than +100 new cases; the day before, it was 37.

1 state reported no new cases: KS (it is unusual that a state of this size reports nothing on a Saturday, wait and see what happens on Sunday, it could just be a clerical thing)

New daily deaths:​

I think this is the most important category when looking to see where other hotspots are emerging and since deaths lag behind new cases, the two rankings are often not the same.

1 state reported more than 100 daily deaths: NJ. The day before, it was also 1 and NJ was the sole state over the 100 daily death line.

43 of 50 states reported at least one death. The day before, it was 41.

Total deaths:
​

40 states have more than 100 total deaths. That's 4/5 of the nation in terms of numbers of US states. In terms of population, it's far more than that. At 89 and 82 total deaths respectively, ME and ID will soon cross over that marker.

Of those 40, 19 states in the Union now have a total of more than 1,000 COVID-19 deaths. At 929 and 903 total deaths respectively, both AZ and AZ will soon cross over that gruesome marker.

With 29,829 total deaths at current, the state of NY had more deaths to mourn than every other COUNTRY on the Earth save the USA itself, UK and Italy. That changed on 2020-05-030: Brazil (currently: 28,834) moved past NY in total deaths.

On 2020-05-029, we ended the day with 105,557 US deaths from COVID-19. Now, all that as raw numbers may not really be getting into peoples' heads quite yet, so here is the listing of US-American cities with a projected 2020 population of between 100,000-106,500:



As of 2020-05-028, this means that we lost the equivalent of ALL of Daly City, never to get it back again. Think about that.

NEW EXTRAPOLATION (will start 2020-06-001):​

Let's assume that as of 2020-06-001, we are at 106,000 dead in the USA. Sure looks like that is going to easily happen, just as the extrapolation predicted. I first said, 103,000, then 105,000 but, it looks like we will be closer to 106,000, maybe 107,000. Wait and see. At current, it looks very much like we will land at 106,100 or 106,200 deaths at EOD on 2020-05-031 (today).

OK, what happens if, on the average, instead of 1,400 dead per day, let's take 1/2 of that, "just" 700 dead per day every day from the beginning of June, 2020, until the end of this year?

This is simple math: from June 1, 2020 through December 31, 2020, there are 214 days (7 months at 30 days plus four months with one extra day, the 31st: July, August, October, December). 214 * 700 = 149,800 + 106,000 = 255,800 US-American deaths by the end of 2020 if the average daily deaths are just one-half of what I extrapolated from April 28-May 31, 2020.


Mitigate. Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the new extrapolation, starting June 1, 2020, to happen.


-Stat

 

I'd tell you but the mods would just remove the post.

 

Which once again hammers home the point that this virus knows nothing but invasion. It seeks human hosts and where it finds them, it can invade. Remove the human hosts from where the virus exists and it dies within days. Human hosts are its "oxygen". So, of course, physical distancing does place a prominent role in this.

That being said, I would not go as far as to say that a lot of poorer nations are doing better. The stats are showing very clearly the C19 has now also taken root in poor nations and will likely spread like wildfire there.

 

Do you use heat pumps to keep costs down?

Electricity is about $0.07US/kWh in BC, $0.10US/kWh in Oregon ... turn on the air conditioning! Isn't electricity about $0.45US/kWh in Australia? In BC, electricity is generated with hydro--as clean as you can get.

 

YEPP.

BINGO.