Is opening the Economy enough?

Discussion in 'Political Opinions & Beliefs' started by TurnerAshby, May 20, 2020.

  1. crank

    crank Well-Known Member

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    I liked this post. It's the first of its kind I've seen which has pointed to the fact that there could actually be improvements. Change doesn't always end badly.
     
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  2. TurnerAshby

    TurnerAshby Well-Known Member

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    Enough to avoid a deep recession and enough to keep society running smoothly. 8 million people didn't pay their mortgage last month. Image what kind of civil unrest that kind of homelessness/ joblessness will do to society. Is opening up alone enough or should the government do more to help?
     
  3. TurnerAshby

    TurnerAshby Well-Known Member

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    Agree but willing to listen to differing views
     
  4. crank

    crank Well-Known Member

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    I'm not thinking in conventional terms, because we can't know if we'll ever return to convention. Historically, we had no way of knowing such things in large scale disasters, and more often than not we never did return. In fact that's a big part of where we are in the 21stC ... unexpected challenges forcing innovation and adaptation.

    If the old conventions no longer work to keep everyone fed and housed, we must find new ways to do it. It's that simple. But if I were to speculate - given a complete collapse, Govts could probably have to take one of two approaches: go hardcore authoritarian communist (ie, put everyone in dormitories and working in factories & farms etc), or provide the means for self-reliance ONCE, then let the chips fall where they may. Keeping in mind that neither option involves money/income. Money is the only thing that can't be a factor in a post-collapse scenario.
     
    Last edited: May 20, 2020
  5. Giftedone

    Giftedone Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    A good question - and an interesting one. My take is that while the Volcano has erupted .. the fallout .. and subsequent Tsunami .. have yet to hit.

    The longer the economy stays shut down - the bigger the damage.

    What does "Counteract mean" - as in how do we measure it ... open question ? How long will it take for unemployment to get to these levels before Corona ? - we may never get there as that was ridiculous and a short term spike - but back to reasonable levels.. This could take some time.

    Earnings for this year have already been crushed - it is a matter of how bad - some will recover by next year - some earlier - but some not.

    You can push on a string but you can't pull on a string - we can open up - but we can't force people to go out and spend. Things are already opening up in some areas .. but this is limited ..and the restrictions are punishing.

    Very few restaurants can make it at 50% capacity. Hotels are not going to filling rooms for some time .. The service sector is a huge part of the economy.. Tourism is very big in some places - "Poof" - especially anything relying on international or even inter state travel at the moment.

    It is a tribute to how ridiculously high that rent's have gotten - that many restaurants can not make it for more than a few months - having no income but still having to pay rent. McDonald's will survive.

    Airlines will have to be bailed out .. flying at 50% capacity does not a profitable plane ride make .. demand will decrease if you try to recoup the cost of losing the extra seats.

    We know the tsunami is coming - hard to predict how bad it will be other than to say that the longer the lockdown persists - the worse it will be.
     
  6. Reiver

    Reiver Well-Known Member

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    Damage for whom? The long term impact of pandemics largely reflects impact on productivity. Of course the right wing consensus in the US has already ensured a wedge between wage and productivity. We can assume that this right wing consensus, including the Dems prerrending to be progressives, will encourage another bout of austerity to maintain the status quo. Business as usual then...
     
  7. modernpaladin

    modernpaladin Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    It was an ode to my favorite TV show- Futurama. When the professor was ruminating on the potential outcome of the reemergence of the common cold after hundreds of years and all of humanity had lost their antibodies to it- he concluded: "It could kill millions, or no one. It might even bring a few people back to life. Anything is possible in science!"
     
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  8. Lil Mike

    Lil Mike Well-Known Member

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    Well not every business venture is a good idea, or is going to make it long term, but that's an issue that isn't even on the table when every business is shut down by government fiat for an indefinite amount of time. Even the best idea and best management will fail under those conditions eventually.
     
  9. fmw

    fmw Well-Known Member

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    You underestimate entrepreneurs. They are used to hardship, hard work taking risks. I know. I am one of them.
     
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  10. Pants

    Pants Well-Known Member

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    What kind of handicap are you suggesting? What do you think should be done in addition to the re opening?
     
  11. God & Country

    God & Country Well-Known Member

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    Opening the economy is full of question marks but is still better than doing nothing which can only end in a total collapse. America's resources are considerable but finite, we cannot spend our way out of this crisis. The way out is going to be painful and ugly as evidenced by what we've already seen but sitting on our hands isn't going to do it. What we are doing right now is circular and spiraling downward. The numbers are still rising with all that has been done it's time to take a different tack.
     
  12. TurnerAshby

    TurnerAshby Well-Known Member

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    Well the biggest issue
     
  13. Lucifer

    Lucifer Well-Known Member

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    There are so many unknowns right now. I would venture to say we will know how bad this really is when we start seeing people negotiating to barter because money is in short supply.
     
  14. Pants

    Pants Well-Known Member

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    ???? What is the biggest issue? What handicap are you suggesting?
     
  15. Spim

    Spim Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    don't you have to be at least 90 days late before foreclosure becomes an issue?
    That would mean people havent paid march/april/may already?
    and so many are getting UI, + 600 + a stimulus check... that doesn't make sense to me.

    I remember from the 08 crash that it took 4 months before the bank even started sending notices and 6+ before they started taking action
     
  16. Spim

    Spim Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    have the states lost that much? I know we've been much slower but not a 100% drop.
     
  17. RodB

    RodB Well-Known Member Donor

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    50-50. Nobody knows. Two quips come to mind: "Forecasting is very hard, especially about the future," Yogi Berra. "The reason we have economic forecasters is to make astrology look good," J.K. Galbraith.
     
  18. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

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    It's more like great steak sauce on a prime ribeye.

    BLOCKBUSTER JOBS REPORT
    [​IMG]The May jobs report came out today, and it shocked everyone. It shows nonfarm payrolls up by 2.5 million, and unemployment dropping to 13.3%. This compares with private forecasts, where the median prediction was 7.5 million jobs lost in May and an unemployment rate of 19.2 percent.
     
  19. TurnerAshby

    TurnerAshby Well-Known Member

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    While consolidating most American businesses to large corporations like Walmart Walgreens Target etc while mom and pop shops apparently don't get the same chance to receive stimulus....
     
  20. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

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    Yup. Mom/Pop shops closed while Amazon flourished. As soon as the Mom/Pop reopens, buy your toilet paper there rather than Walmart.
     
    Last edited: Jun 6, 2020
  21. TurnerAshby

    TurnerAshby Well-Known Member

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    That's true but if were all in agreement that amazon types are bad compared to mom and pops why don't they get the same chances?
     
  22. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

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    Hell make a list of all the damn things we largely agree on the various levels of Government that they refuse to do, and bring a LOT of paper. As to "Why"? We The People are not currently asserting ourselves effectively and keeping Our Republic, under OUR control. But, when we get tired of being circumvented, the Framers gave us all the tools we need to get them back in line!
     
    Last edited: Jun 6, 2020
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  23. TurnerAshby

    TurnerAshby Well-Known Member

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    Ok that's a great answer.. you seem like a reasonable guy! Obviously unemployment going down is a good thing too
     
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  24. PPark66

    PPark66 Well-Known Member

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    That jobs report could be a bad thing IF we stop doing what we’ve been doing to keep the economy afloat.

    Slow and steady. I doubt we could fill that hole fast enough if we act abruptly.
     
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  25. ButterBalls

    ButterBalls Well-Known Member

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    Nope, the will take a long time to settle out! I'm amazed anyone would even ask that question :roll:
     

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