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Hillary Clinton Had a 99% Chance of Becoming President

Discussion in 'Political Opinions & Beliefs' started by Xyce, Jul 2, 2020.

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  1. Distraff

    Distraff Well-Known Member

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    Hillary had a 4% lead at this point, and this lead oscillated to 0% pretty often. Biden has a 10% lead. This election will be about the coronavirus and Trump isn't doing very well on that. 2016 was so tricky because it was close. This election, isn't close right now.
     
    Distraff, Jul 2, 2020
    #26
  2. Xyce

    Xyce Well-Known Member

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    Considering their admission of bias in the last election Trump was in wherein they allowed subjectivity to creep into what is supposed to be an objective process, they have a blind spot, at least concerning the electability of Trump, their reliability for correctly calling elections overall, for which you have not provided any evidentiary backing, notwithstanding.

    The purpose of polls is supposed to be a snapshot in time, but considering the bias of the pollsters, which plays into their results, it's laughable to consider most, if not all, of them to be unbiased.
     
    Last edited: Jul 2, 2020
    Xyce, Jul 2, 2020
    #27
  3. ChiCowboy

    ChiCowboy Well-Known Member

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    Agreed, but at the moment, this is wishful thinking. There are vast differences from 2016, so that argument is a non sequitur.

    Everything Trump has used to smear Biden has backfired. That's to be expected when the attacks are lies. Biden doesn't have any missing e-mails. "Lock him up!" isn't gonna work, so while I'm aware that the trend could turn around, there is no reason yet to expect it. Indeed, the expectation thus far is that Biden's lead will grow.
     
    Last edited: Jul 2, 2020
    ChiCowboy, Jul 2, 2020
    #28
  4. ChiCowboy

    ChiCowboy Well-Known Member

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    Please Xyce, I'm not talking about 538's election predictions. I'm talking about rating pollsters. It's based on reliability. You can check it yourself. A poll was either correct or it wasn't. Really simple. That Monmouth is rated #1 means it is the most reliable, based on its record, which is easily verified. My point has nothing to do with 538's calling the 2016 election. My point is the reliability of Monmouth University polls.



    What bias are you referring to? Many questions can be dubious, but simple voter preference is not. There is nothing biased about asking who you are going to vote for. Methodologies are properly evaluated based on accuracy, not bias. If a poll is consistently correct, then its methodology is accurate. Bias is irrelevant.
     
    Last edited: Jul 2, 2020
    ChiCowboy, Jul 2, 2020
    #29
  5. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

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    Trump ran an amazing campaign, focused on the right states and pulled an astounding victory.

    [​IMG]
    “You Won’t Be Safe in Joe Biden’s America” – Trump Campaign Unveils Hard-Hitting Ad Against Biden

    Black Lives Matter and other Biden allies are working to replace the police with Sharia patrol, Black Panthers, La Raza and other anti-white, anti-Christian social justice enforcers.

    “You won’t be safe in Joe Biden’s America” the Trump campaign asserted in its new ad against the presumptive Democrat nominee.

    “If you call 911, who will answer the phone?” Trump’s camp asked.
     
    Zorro, Jul 2, 2020
    #30
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  6. Booman

    Booman Banned

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    Don't worry kids. Hillary is a shoe-in to become president of the Benghazi pantsuit hall of fame.
     
    Booman, Jul 2, 2020
    #31
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  7. Andrew Jackson

    Andrew Jackson Well-Known Member

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    Totally different dynamic in 2020 compared to 4 yrs. ago.

    BIDEN Is A LOCK...:salute:
     
    Last edited: Jul 2, 2020
    Andrew Jackson, Jul 2, 2020
    #32
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  8. ChiCowboy

    ChiCowboy Well-Known Member

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    Last edited: Jul 2, 2020
    ChiCowboy, Jul 2, 2020
    #33
  9. Distraff

    Distraff Well-Known Member

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    Trump ran against the most popular democrat in modern history and almost lost. He couldn't even win a popular majority. But Trump was smart to target the rust belt and he was very charismatic in ways Hillary never was.
     
    Distraff, Jul 2, 2020
    #34
  10. US Conservative

    US Conservative Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    US Conservative, Jul 2, 2020
    #35
  11. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

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    The Popular vote isn't the Presidential Electorate. Trump focused on the States he needed, Hillary who has been involved in five Presidential campaigns, laid around drunk all through August and barely campaigned thinking she was heading for a landslide. She never showed up to Wisconsin in the general election and was campaigning in AZ a Iowa while she was losing FL, WI, MI and PA.

    In PA she threatened the jobs of coal miners, and instead Coal Miners got together and fired her. Is this a great country or what?

    And Trump didn't "barely" beat her, he took 30 states to her 20.
     
    Last edited: Jul 2, 2020
    Zorro, Jul 2, 2020
    #36
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  12. Distraff

    Distraff Well-Known Member

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    I never claimed the popular vote is the electoral college. I agree that Hillary was overconfident and was blind to her weakness in the rust belt. However, with all those flaws, Trump still couldn't win the popular vote which shows that he was by no means popular. He just had a better strategy. He will need a different strategy this time because the democrats will be ready for the rust belt this time and Trump is also much further behind than last time.
     
    Last edited: Jul 2, 2020
    Distraff, Jul 2, 2020
    #37
  13. ChiCowboy

    ChiCowboy Well-Known Member

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    Clinton made these blunders and others, but the election was decided by less than 1 point in three states. That's the measure of closeness, not EC totals.
     
    ChiCowboy, Jul 2, 2020
    #38
  14. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

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    And yet you posted this:
    And then you posted:
    The popular vote isn't the Presidential electorate. Trump took 30 states to Crooked Hillary's 20 collecting 306 ECV to Crooked Hillary's 232

    [​IMG]
    ​
    The polls will show him way behind until Labor Day Weekend when they will "unexpectedly" tighten. By election day eve it will be nearly tied up with the Democrat holding a slight lead in the popular vote and the ECV.

    The only "poll" that matters is the election. The Left "wins" a lot more polls than they do elections.

    The electoral college is designed to prevent a fringe regional candidate from carrying a national election by running up the score in the coastal strips, and in 2016 it worked perfectly.
     
    Last edited: Jul 2, 2020
    Zorro, Jul 2, 2020
    #39
  15. Andrew Jackson

    Andrew Jackson Well-Known Member

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    And, so what?

    Biden Will still WIN...:flagus:
     
    Andrew Jackson, Jul 2, 2020
    #40
  16. ChiCowboy

    ChiCowboy Well-Known Member

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    What are you using to predict a Labor Day tightening?
     
    ChiCowboy, Jul 2, 2020
    #41
  17. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

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    PA put Trump over the top and he carried the state by 6 times the margin that William Henry Harrison defeated Martin Van Buren by, in the very same state.
     
    Zorro, Jul 2, 2020
    #42
  18. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

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    Just watch. Polls are as fake and contrived as the rest of the news. Watch what happens from the month before the Labor Day weekend and Labor Day Weekend.
     
    Zorro, Jul 2, 2020
    #43
  19. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

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    According to the Fake News Polls. Biden isn't clear on which one is his wife and which one is his daughter. But hey, if he wins, he wins, we'll survive it.
     
    Zorro, Jul 2, 2020
    #44
  20. ChiCowboy

    ChiCowboy Well-Known Member

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    Lol. Sounds conspiratorial. I'll pass.
     
    ChiCowboy, Jul 2, 2020
    #45
  21. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

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    Watch or not. Suit yourself.
     
    Zorro, Jul 2, 2020
    #46
  22. Sleep Monster

    Sleep Monster Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Seriously? Shouldn't this thread be in an archive?

    :deadhorse:
     
    Sleep Monster, Jul 2, 2020
    #47
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  23. Xyce

    Xyce Well-Known Member

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    I agree; there are vast differences between 2016 and 2020. In 2020, the Democrats decided to nominate a senile fool who has said that 270 million Americans have died from guns and the Chinese Virus alone. (1, 2) At least Hillary could talk intelligently. In my estimation, the only reason why Biden is doing well is because he's virtually locked in his basement, and when he does talk, he talks from a teleprompter.

    And he doesn't even do that that well.



    The man gaffes almost as much as he blinks. Biden's senility plus his constant gaffes does not equal electoral strength.

    1: https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/biden-150-million-gun-deaths/
    2: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-wrongly-says-we-have-over-120-million-dead-from-covid
     
    Xyce, Jul 2, 2020
    #48
  24. Xyce

    Xyce Well-Known Member

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    Learning from history should be archived? Well, that sums up a lot about your side.
     
    Xyce, Jul 2, 2020
    #49
  25. Texan

    Texan Well-Known Member

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    So you're saying that somebody threw away a bunch of money for unreliable results?
     
    Texan, Jul 2, 2020
    #50
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