Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

If anything, a world plan where first world countries would pinch in to help smaller countries might be crucial to beating this thing. It's clear to me that the best way to beat the coronavirus is a team approach.

 

Belay that: the UK just adjusted it's total C19 case figure down by 30,302 cases, applicable to July 1, 2020. Sure wish countries would finally get their **** together when it comes to something as elementary as counting. This is just plain old ****ing idiotic.



idiots.

 

Ooooooooooooooooooh wel,l Texas finally got it.
Masks are now mandatory

Gas well, oil well, water well ( which I really would like to have ).

 

Agree that a team approach is essential.

However, it's not the smaller and/or poorer nations who need the help. On the contrary, some of them could help (in terms of protocols and tactics) America right now. Imagine them trying though? Imagine any nation attempting to help America?

 

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/virus-mutations-reveal-how-covid-19-really-spread1/

So I'm just going to leave this little nugget here from Scientific America, which outlines how COVID-19 spread. And the US-spread in particular was really uncontrollable.

 

.

 

Going up...
Next stop masks and shut downs.


I really am getting concerned. I think it's out of control in several places. This is where some federal leadership could really help with tracing etc. Both Arizona and Florida have fewer than 2000 tracers. No way they can keep up. That makes shut downs of some type the only alternative.

 

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/07/02/health/coronavirus-mutation-spread-study/index.html

A global study has found strong evidence that a new form of the coronavirus has spread from Europe to the US. The new mutation makes the virus more likely to infect people but does not seem to make them any sicker than earlier variations of the virus, an international team of researchers reported Thursday.

"It is now the dominant form infecting people," Erica Ollmann Saphire of the La Jolla Institute for Immunology and the Coronavirus Immunotherapy Consortium, who worked on the study, told CNN.

"This is now the virus."

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The good news is that this strain doesn't seem any more virulent but, as the article notes, it is 3 to 9 times more infectious.

This certainly makes containment more challenging, especially in the US given the lack of a cohesive, comprehensive plan. It also makes the elusive herd immunity less likely as the higher infection rate means that a higher % would need to become infected, assuming herd immunity is even possible with this virus.

 

Good morning, PFers,

before I start the analyses for 2020-07-002, this just happened at 09:37 GMT +2 / 03:37 EDT:



The excel table:



Last Saturday, 2020-06-027 at 20:11 GMT +2 / 14:11 EDT, the world crossed over the 10,000,000 mark, so in just a little more than 5.5 days (5 days, 13 hours and 26 minutes, to be exact), the world just advanced another 1,000,000 confirmed C19 cases.

Just to be absolutely clear here: it took a little more than 4 months to hit the first million, on 2020-04-002, then 14 days to advance to 2 million, then 12 days to advance to 3 million, then 11 days to advance to 4 million, 12 days to advance to 5 million, and then a jump happened in the middle of May - it took only 9 days to advance to 6 and 7 million apiece (respectively, and btw 7 million will be exactly 28 days ago come tomorrow), 8 days to advance to 8 million, 6 days to advance to 9 and 19 million apiece (respectively) and now, 5.5 days....

I think y'all can see where this is going, even with a low logistical growth rate and not with a high exponential growth rate.

-Stat

 

HERE the entire posting for the worldwide C19 stats for EOD the day before. Reminder: New 7-day rolling average system in effect, posted 2020-06-029, 12:40 GMT +2, #10712.

During the run of the day on 2020-07-002 and also this morning, 2020-07-003, there were some other important analysis:
„Future Upperdecks 1 and 2“ end-analysis, posted 2020-07-002, 10:54 GMT +2, #10789.
USA EOD analysis for 2020-07-001, posted 2020-07-002, 14:10 GMT +2, #10796.
Florida reports +10,109 new C19 cases, posted 2020-07-002, 18:52 GMT +2, #10802.
Florida‘s development since it crossed over 100,000 C19 cases, 2020-07-002, 21:56 GMT+2, #10815.
The world advances to 11 million C19 cases in 5.5 days, posted 2020-07-003, 10:17 GMT +2, #10834.

You can confirm/sort the data for this analysis as you wish via the WORLDOMETER website for today -or- the WAYBACK MACHINE when searching for today's date in the future: search for one or two days later than you want, then use the "yesterday" or "2 days ago" function at the top their large excel table.

COVID-19 worldwide statistics EOD Report for Thursday, 2020-07-002 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):​

֍ 10,974,421 ֍
+179,321 new C19 cases over the day before.
The USA goes well over the +50,000 mark in new C19 cases for a second day in a row.
Rolling 7 day worldwide average: +181,719 new C19 cases per day.
There are 131 nations with at least 100 total COVID-19 cases.
There have now been 523,242 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +5,184 of them were on this day.
Rolling 7 day worldwide average: +4,508 deaths per day.
1,277 Brazilian, 741 Mexican, 687 US-American & 377 Indian deaths were recorded on this day.

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STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:
​

Sigh....here we go again: there is a more than +30,000 case disparity between the numbers on my excel table and WorldOMeter because at the very end of yesterday, WorldOMeter adjusted the total numbers for 2020-07-001 DOWN from 10,795,100 to 10,765,557. Here's why:



I noted this early this morning my time. This means that since WorldOMeter shunted the -value into the past (now, two days ago), it reflects +208,864 cases for 2020-07-002, while my excel table reflects +179,321 (difference: 29,543), and the day before, on 2020-07-001, where my excel table reflected a record breaking +217,344, WorldOMeters now shows +197,442 (difference: 19,902). So, depending on how you want to look at it or calculate it, the first day of over +200,000 C19 cases was either 2020-07-001 or 2020-07-002. I personally have no desire to be hunting ghosts into the past and I do find that countries should get their **** together and not constantly have to revise data. I will just note that not one single time has Germany ever revised a C19 number: EVER.

The entire month of June saw +100,000 or more new C-19 cases per day and you can extend that statistic out to 36 out of the last 37 days, save 2020-05-031. 16 of the last 17 days saw more than +140,000 new C19 cases per day. But more importantly and from now on I will only be mentioning this: the last 10 days in a row saw more than +160,000 cases per day. I would say that it's a certainty that going under +100,000 cases a day is now a thing of the past, +160,000 cases per day is the norm right now and soon enough, +200,000 per day is going to become the norm.

Consider this: On Saturday, 2020-06-027 at 20:11 GMT +2 (my time in Germany), we broke over the 10-million barrier. 5 days, 13 hours and 26 minutes later, the world went over 11 Million - this morning, 2020-07-003 at 09:37 GMT +2.

The worldwide analysis for 2020-06-021, has an extrapolation of how many total C19-cases and C19-deaths we are likely to have by the end of 2020, you may be interested to go and read it again, right under the excel-table for that day.

The number of daily deaths on this Thursday was considerably less than the Thursday before due to the +1,700 added deaths in the US-state of NJ on that Thursday, but the daily deaths from 2020-07-002 were actually slightly above 2 and 3 Thursdays before, around the +5,150 mark.

Total cases per country, descending (countries circa +300 C19 cases and above):
​

131-66-20-2​

In terms of total cases per country, there are 131 nations in the "thousand club". .

Of those 131, 66 nations are now in the "10,000 club".

20 of those 66 nations are at at 100,000 or more. Very likely by the end of this week, Quatar will also cross over the 100,000 line.

Of those 20, 2 nations are in the "1,000,000" club: the USA and Brazil.

Concerning ranks 3 and 4: Russia currently has 661,165 C19 cases, but India, with 627,167, is now only -33,998 cases away from Russia (the day before, it was -49,185) and growing more than twice as many daily C19 cases as Russia. On 2020-06-028, 4 days ago, I opened an excel-tab for India in my calculations and did an analysis here: Excel-table for and 1st analysis of INDIA, posted 2020-06-028, 21:54 GMT +2, #10616. In the analysis, I predicted the following:

So, 5 of those 8-9 days have come and gone and it really looks as if India will surpass Russia in 5 days, exactly within my prediction. Russia is averaging about 6,800 cases per day, India is averaging 18,900. 18,900 - 6,800 = 12,100 case gain per day for India over Russia. 33,998 / 12,100 = 2.81 days. So, yeah, either on July 5th, July 6th at the very latest, India will surpass Russia and become the country with the 3rd highest C19 case-load in the world. One month ago, On 2020-06-002, Russia was 216,550 cases ahead of India. A lot can change in one month's time. India will very likely go over 1,000,000 C19 cases by the end of July, 2020.

In terms of the countries with the most new cases:

72-22-3​

72 countries had +100 or more new cases, more than 1/3 of all nations in the world. The day before, it was 75.

Of those 72, 22 countries had +1000 or more new cases. The day before, it was 22. Bolivia joined the +1,000 list, I believe, for the very first time.

Of those 22, 3 nations had over +10,000 new cases: the USA, Brazil and India. The USA, with +57,236 cases, broke the record from the day for and set a new record for that country, also worldwide, outstripping Brazil's +55,209 from 2020-06-019.

In terms of total deaths per country, descending:​

​

85-37-10-1​

There are now 85 nations with 100 total deaths or more.

Of those 85, 37 nations now have over +1,000 COVID-19 deaths to date.

Of those 37, there are now 10 nations with over +10,000 total COVID-19 deaths to date, with Peru having gone over the +10,000 line on 2020-07-002.

And finally, of those 10, 1 nation has over +100,000 total COVID-19 deaths, completely dwarfing all other nations on the planet: the USA.

Currently at 131,485 total deaths, the USA is circa 4% of the world's population but yet, 25.13% of all worldwide deaths have come from the USA (the day before, it was 25.36%). A extrapolation pointing to 266,000 total US deaths by the end of this year is now currently running within the USA analyses.

Brazil, currently at 61,993 total deaths, is now rank 2 among the C19 dead and closing in on +100,000 deaths rather quickly. An average of +1,243 deaths per day as of 2020-06-024 gets Brazil to 100,000 on July 31st, 2020. An average of +891 deaths per day gets Brazil to 100,000 on August 15th, 2020. It's current rolling average is: +840.

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:



Brazil, Mexico, USA, India, Peru, Colombia, Chile, Iran, Russia and Iraq lead with the most daily deaths.

10 nations reported over +100 daily deaths (it was 10 the day before). 6 of those 10 countries are from the Americas.

In terms of Total Tests administered per country, 30 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece.

With 90.4 million COVID-19 tests, China leads the field by far. Very soon, China will also be adjusting it's actual and daily C19 cases and deaths. We may be in for a real statistical jolt, here. The USA has now performed 35.5 million tests (600,000 thousand more than the day before) while Russia has performed 20.2 million tests (300,000 more than the day before). Brazil, which is now rank 2 among all nations both in terms of COVID-19 infections and total deaths, has performed 3.2 million such tests.

Facit: on 2020-07-002, the world landed just hair's breadth under 11 million total C19 cases.

The world-wide curve, which had generally flattened, is numerically picking up substantially. It is still logistical and not exponential, but there is a noticeable increase in overall daily C19 cases. That being said, new hotspots are verifiably emerging (Peru, Chile and Pakistan have now appeared on my mental radar screen). The average daily deaths in terms of raw numbers remains stabile, but due to the enormous amount of overall cases, the actual death rate continues to sink, which is in and of itself a very good sign. The problem is the huge increase in total cases, which will invariably, absent a working vaccine, cause the average daily deaths to rise again, probably within the next 16-24 days. It's like a game of whack-a-mole. We've seen this pattern happen before.


-Stat

 

What about Melbourne?

 

HERE the COVID-19 USA numbers for the day before. Reminder: New 7-day rolling average. Also, the USA is now being analyzed in 57 Units instead of 50 states.

There were two important interim USA reports on 2020-07-002:
Florida reports +10,109 new C19 cases, posted 2020-07-002, 18:52 GMT +2, #10802.
Florida‘s development since it crossed over 100,000 C19 cases, 2020-07-002, 21:56 GMT+2, #10815.

You can confirm/sort the data for the following analysis as you wish via the WORLDOMETER website for today -or- the WAYBACK MACHINE when searching for today's date in the future: search for one or two days later than you want, then use the "yesterday" or "2 days ago" function at the top their large excel table.

And now:

COVID-19 USA statistics EOD Report for Thursday, 2020-07-002 in the USA (EOD = GMT +0):

**2,837,189** (25.85% of worldwide total)
A worldwide record-setting +57,236 new C19 cases, 2nd day over +50,000 (31.92% of worldwide haul)
12 days of +30,000 or more / 8 days of +40,000 or more / 2 days of +50,000 or more
Florida reports a whalloping +10,109 new C19 cases, first instance of a +5-digit-number.
California reports +9,352 new C19 cases, a California record.
Only one state in the USA is under +1,000 (or much more) total C19 cases: Hawaii.
131,485 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA (25.13% of worldwide deaths); 687 of them recorded on this day.
1,191,091 people have recovered, 1,514,613 are, however, still sick.
The recovered/active statistic is static right now.​

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

The numbers speak volumes. The days of maybe +20,000-25,000 new C19 cases are gone. We are moving very quickly to between +45,000-55,000 becoming the norm. This is a massive uptick, and it happened more quickly than people may think. Take a look for yourself at the rolling 7-day average and compare 2020-02-007 with the last weekly average, from last Sunday. Why at least +45,000? Because there are now 9-11 dreadnaught states that are all reporting well over +1,000 fresh C19 infections every day, with no reduction in sight.

The actual number of daily deaths reported on 2020-07-002 is definitely down over the 4 Thursday before, especially the Thursday before, where NJ added +1,700 deaths retroactively. This is EXCEEDINGLY good news, but the real concern (and I have been writing this for about a week now) here is that with a huge spike in cases within the Union, a spike in deaths will follow in the next 3-4 weeks, ala what we saw in NY and NJ, one month later in LA, MI and IL. We may soon see this in FL, GA, TX, AZ and CA.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:
​

57: 55-41-16-7​

55 out of 57 UNITS have over 1,000 confirmed total COVID-19 cases apiece, with Alaska having crossed over the 1,000-line on 2020-07-002. 49 of those 53 Units are US States. At 946 C19 cases, Hawaii, the only state in the Union to be under +1,000, will cross over this line by the end of July. However, at 311, the pacific Territories may take a considerably longer time to get there. Once those two cross over the line, then quite literally every Unit of the USA will be at +1,000 (or considerably more)

41 of the UNITS I just mentioned now have more than +10,000 cases. 33 of those 41 Units are states. The non-states: DC, Veterans Affairs and the US Military. Currently at 9,294 cases, Oregon is up next. This kind of thing tends to happen in spurts: a bunch of Units (mostly, states) will slowly get close to a milestone and within days, they all jump over said milestone.

Of those 41, 16 have more than +50,000 confirmed C19 cases. All 16 of them are states. Tennessee has now surpassed Connecticut on the way to 50,000.

Of those 16, 7 have more than +100,000 confirmed C19 cases. All 7 of them are states. Pennsylvania is now just under 93,000 cases and slowly making its way toward the 100,000 line.

New daily cases:

​

57: 56-39-11​

56 of 57 Units reported at least one new case, 50 of those 57 being states. The non-state with no new reported cases: the US Military.

39 of 57 Units reported more than +100 new cases. 37 of those 39 Units were states. The non-states were: DC and Veterans Affairs

11 of 57 Units reported over +1,000 new cases, all 11 of them being states. With +10,109 new C19 cases, FL set both a state and national record. But by closing in on +9,500, California also set a state record. Georgia set a new state record. Arizona, which is initiating a triage-system, is hanging in the +3,000 range per day. Arizona is a very hot, very dry state. C19 is not supposed to spread easily under those climactic conditions, and yet, it is. The number of daily cases in the US is really on the rise. 8 of those 11 states are from the Deep South, 2 are from the West/Southwest, and NY, from the NE, surprised and reappeared in the top-listings. Also, 9 of those 11 are coastal states, the exceptions being AZ and for the most part, NY. This is a geographical phenomenon.

Here the county listings for the top three states:

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:
​

I think this is the most important category when looking to see where other hotspots are emerging and since deaths lag behind new cases, the two rankings are often not the same.

57: 44-21-0​

44 of 57 Units reported at least one new death. 40 of them are US States. The non-states: DC, Veterans Affairs, Federal Prisons and Navajo Nation.

Of those 44, 21 reported deaths in double digits or more, from +10 to +98. 20 of those 21 Units are US States. The non-state: Veterans Affairs

Out of the entire Union, all 57 Units, 0 Units reported more than 100 daily deaths.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:
​

57: 45-24-2
​

45 of 57 Units now have at least 100 total deaths. 41 of those 45 Units are US States. At 97, 93, 92, and 80 total deaths respectively, South Dakota, West Virginia, Idaho and North Dakota will soon cross over that marker.

Of those 45, 24 Units now have a total of more than +1,000 COVID-19 deaths. 23 of those 24 are US states, the other Unit is US Veterans Affairs. At 985 and 959, respectively, Alabama and Rhode Island are inching up toward the +1,000-death line, it will likely happen within July, 2020.

Of those 24 Units, 2 have suffered more than 10,000 COVID-19 deaths: NY and NJ, the original epicenters of the virus in February/March/April 2020.

​

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FACIT: we ended the day analysed with 131,484 US deaths from COVID-19. To make this easier to visualize, here is the listing of US-American cities with a projected 2020 population of between 127,000-136,000:



This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of ALL of WACO, never to get it back again. Think about that.

NEW EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-06-001)​

What happens if, on the average, instead of 1,400 dead per day (which was the extrapolation from 2020-04-028 through 2020-05-031), let's take 1/2 of that, "just" 700 dead per day every day from the beginning of June, 2020, until the end of this year?

This extrapolation is now up and running, you can find it at the online excel table (you'll find the logistical tab easily). I will do a report on this once a month, on the first day of the month, but you can check in on the numbers as often as you like to see if we really are on our way to 266,000 total US COVID-19 deaths, or not. On the first day of each month, the table for the month before will also be published here.

Some dates to keep in mind. If this trends as I think it may, averaging at some point in time, +700 deaths per day, then we would likely reach the following milemarkers:

150,000 deaths on or around 2020-08-002.
200,000 deaths on or around 2020-10-013.
250,000 deaths on or around 2020-12-023.

Mitigate. Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the new extrapolation, which started on June 1st, 2020, to happen. Right now, we are 2,890 deaths ABOVE the extrapolation, which puts us just over 4 days ahead of the projection.

-Stat

 

The study of the mutation shows that one "genetic" marker was shifted one place (or slot) to the left, if you will, allowing the spikes of the C19 creature to bore far more easily through arterial tissue after having already damaged the lungs. That's just about as evil and perfide as evil and perfide can get.

 

In a sure sign that this day, 2020-07-003, is probably going to be the heaviest C19 day to-date: usually, around this time of day, when I look at the WorldOMeter table before 17:00 my time (it was 16:37 when I looked and made the screenshot), it usually shows at the maximum, +50,000 cases and of them, India would have reported 1/2 of its daily figures. Usually, on the list of countries with +1,000 cases or more, around 17:00, the list maybe has 11 countries. Today, at 16:37, there are already 16 on the list. Yes, the USA, Brasil and India are on the list, but you can see how very little of the total these countries represent. Also, 2 nations that have never before been on the 1,000 list have appeared today:



Right now, we are pushing +59,000 new C19 cases, the USA is only 1,733 of them, Brasil is only 1,071 of them, but India is 6,213 if them, likely only 1/4th of India's daily viral load.

But Equatorial Guinea and Guatemala - those two are a genuine surprise. The growth rate from 2020-07-002 to today was +53.5%. More than one third of all of Equatorial Guinea's C19 cases were from today. Also, look at the positivity rate: 19.2%. Also, look at EG's total population: 1.4 million. It is an extremely small nation, and yet, it just reported +1,070 new C19 cases. Just two days ago, Israel, also a small nation, was on the 1,000 list.

Guatemala is a decidedly larger nation, but looky looky, yet another South/Middle American nation is up high in the rankings.

I suspect that today is going to be a HUGE C19 day. The signs of this happening are already here, right now.

-Stat

 

His study was questioned from the day it was published. The peer review was rather rough, all the way to grand standing.

 

Today...



Not bad for what would be January 4 here.

 

In reference to U.S. daily Covid19 deaths, we have yet to see a significant surge.

Thus, anyone; What’s your prognosis?

IMO, if it starts creeping up above 1K, we’re in deep poop.

 

If you use percent positives we just went up to 9%. When we had about 2100 deaths a day it was 23%.
So by my calculations we are on our way to 800 a day.

 

For the first time ever, the state of Ohio has recorded more than +1,000 daily C19 cases (+1,091).

Arizona has set a new daily case record with +4,433 new C19 cases.

Florida: +9,488.

 

And we are flooded by folks from AZ and TX, never seen so many, not even during hunting season.
NM, mandatory mask, $100 fine

 

I'm wondering, if young people are increasingly the new vectors of the coronavirus, doesn't that suggest the possibility that the death rate of this new corona batch might be severely less than older patients or immunocompromised patients? I agree with those who've said that death is only one aspect of this, and many(if not all of them) will now be immunocompromised themselves(by the coronavirus) for a long time/if not the rest of their lives but it might be a slimmer of good news if in fact the young don't die as easily from the virus. We might not see that spike of deaths.

 

In 3-4 weeks we will know the answer to that question.

 

At this stage, when it comes to making a prediction, everyone, including our experts, seems to walk on eggshells.

 

Kind of just another day.
I may drop the tracking of Germany and Italy unless someone wants it. I think they have been open for over a month with few problems.

The hotspots.

You can't walk down the street in Arizona without bumping into somebody with COVID.

 

In another week we should have a clear picture

(it's been about 1 week since the massive daily increase in cases began):

if the average daily death count is c. 300, we can say covid-19 is not worth restricting the economy in any way at all, since most of the potential victims are living in nursing homes...many of whom WANT to move on...(and at that rate of fatality , C19 is only about double that of flu).

c.700 as at present, local restrictions on commerce may be advisable.

c.1000, (30,000 deaths a month) means covid 19 is still dangerous, meaning the economy's fortunes will have to be relegated to 2nd place for some time yet, requiring massive Fed government support for the economy.