Republican internal polling signals a Democratic rout

Discussion in 'Current Events' started by MrTLegal, Jul 4, 2020.

  1. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/04/politics/partisan-polls-analysis/index.html

    Since April, Democrat and liberal aligned groups have released 17 House polls. Republican aligned groups have put out zero.

    And what has Trump chosen to do in order to reverse the impending #BlueWave?

    He has chosen to double down on his appeal to white racially motivated voters (i.e. the voters who already support Trump). And thus, it is no surprise that the percentage of individuals who self-identify as Republicans has hit one of the lowest marks in modern history.

    Also, interestingly enough, the percentage of the remaining Republicans who believe we are on the right track as a country has hit one of the lowest marks in Trump's presidency.
     
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  2. Matt84

    Matt84 Well-Known Member

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    Trump supporters on here are just trying to save face at this point. Even they know it's over, but to openly admit it would signal weakness in their wanna be cowboy personas.
     
  3. Spooky

    Spooky Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Boy all of this sounds familiar, where have I heard it before?
     
  4. TRFjr

    TRFjr Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    only fools still think polls are credible
     
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  5. struth

    struth Well-Known Member

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    i’m curious how these dean got GOP internal data...Watergate? sounds like we need an investigation...
     
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  6. apexofpurple

    apexofpurple Well-Known Member

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    What I cant figure is why the left ran with VP Biden. If they had this in the bag why didn't they pick someone with some vigor and direction? VP Biden forgets his own name, forgets where he is, forgets what office hes running for, forgets how government works, forgets basic history, and on and on and on. I mean its mind-blowing isn't it?

    Don't you ever wonder if something is going beyond behind the scenes at the DNC? How did we end up with this guy? Personally I think his mental fragility is going to create a serious weakness for the US on the world stage and that might be a key part of why he was elevated. But I don't have any other pieces to this puzzle so I guess we just wait and see how this all plays out.
     
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  7. perotista

    perotista Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Hmm, no it's not over until November. Strange things have happen to some candidates who led during the first week in July and lost in November.
    Hillary Clinton led by 4 the first week in July and lost in 2016.
    Obama led by 6 and 4 and won over McCain and Romney in November
    Kerry led Bush by 5 and lost in 2004, Bush led Gore by 2 the first week of July and won in November
    Bill Clinton led Dole by 17 and led G.H.W. Bush by 12 and won both
    Dukakis led G.H.W. Bush by 6 the first week of July and lost by 8 in November
    Reagan led Mondale by 8 and won in 1984, Carter led Reagan by 2, Carter lost, Reagan won

    So having the led the first week in July is no guarantee you'll come out a winner. Hillary, Kerry, Dukakis, Carter in 1980 all had leads the first week in July and lost. Things happen that can change the dynamics of the race over the last 4 months. When they don't, the leader goes on to win. It's looks good for Biden at this point in time. But it certainly isn't over. The trend over the last month has been all in the Democrats favor, today it seems like that trend will continue on and on and on. But in reality, something always happens to break the trend, at least usually. Obama twice, Bill Clinton twice and Reagan once escaped something happening and they went on to win fairly easily.
     
  8. perotista

    perotista Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    It's simple, Biden is who the Democratic Primary voters chose. Just like Trump in 2016, he was who the Republican primary voters chose. In primaries, the voters don't choose who will have the best chance of winning in November, they chose who they like the best, who they want to be their nominee. I would have preferred a fresh young face, from if flyover country so much the better.

    I think if the GOP had chosen either Kasich or Rubio, either one would have won by 10 plus points instead of having a squeaker. That if the Democrats when with someone else other than Clinton, that Democrat would have beaten Trump by 10 points or more. Who has the best chance of winning in November is of little concern to primary voters.
     
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  9. Surfer Joe

    Surfer Joe Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    trump has gone from blaming Mexicans to blaming foreigners and now to blaming Americans for his failures.
    What a disgusting character he is.
     
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  10. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    The final average of the polls from 538 was accurate to within 0.3% in 2018.
     
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  11. struth

    struth Well-Known Member

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    what failures? you should stop watching MSDNC
     
  12. struth

    struth Well-Known Member

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    haha yeah after they adjusted for exit polls
     
  13. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    They do not...it is literally the first sentence of the article when they said, "put up or shut up."

    This article is explicitly about the GOP unwillingness to release ANY of its own internal polling while Democrats have released 17.
     
  14. doombug

    doombug Well-Known Member

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    Straight from fake news CNN.....lolz indeed!
     
  15. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    The economy is in a recession and America has had arguably the sjngle worst response to the global pandemic.

    Trump started his presidency by trying to ban foreigners from entering America and now, 3.5 years later, The EU, Canada, and parts of Mexico have banned Americans from traveling there.

    That failure.
     
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  16. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    Oh doombug...your posts are just...sigh, nevermind.
     
  17. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    You do realize that it is entirely possible to review what they wrote on the internet before the exit polls were taken, right? That things posted on the internet get memorialized elsewhere?
     
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  18. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    I take issue with the bolded portion because in this primary, especially, the ability to defeat truml was far and away the primary factor for the voters. I know of many Democrats who made the argument quietly that they wanted the safe (read, the older white male) choice because they wanted to avoid another potential disaster where any sort of even slight influence of misogynistic or racism or ageism could influence even a tiny, but large enough in certain swing states, segment to affect the population.

    No, the reason they did not choose a more progressive or diverse candidate that most believe could still easily defeat trump is because they largely made their choice before the last 3 months of events. When they made their choice, the economy was going strong, the impeachment had just ended with a very slight majority in favor of its resolution, and the pandemic was still over there.

    If the democrats had known about trump's inevitable failures (right @struth ?) in regards to the pandemic response, the economic response, or the response to the police brutality protest, then they might have been much more willing to oush for more change with their presidential choice.

    But even that is no guarantee because biden's primary appeal now has shifted to one of comfort in a time of crisis. His experience and demeanor, both domestically and internationally, is largely more comforting and appealing to the country than any of the democratic nominees. They could arguably still offer that factor better than truml, but the democratic primary voters might have still chosen biden.

    Also I do want to note that this meme about biden's mental acuity is almost exclusively a political joke. The man makes gaffes, but those have very long been apart of his political character and the appeal they bring largely outweigh any detraction. It also helps that any person who wants to use mental acuity as a reason to attack biden over truml has to immediately defend trump's willingness to suggest injecting disinfectant as a potential treatment for covid.
     
    Last edited: Jul 5, 2020
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  19. (original)late

    (original)late Banned

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  20. struth

    struth Well-Known Member

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    it is
     
  21. struth

    struth Well-Known Member

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    the economy is bouncing back strong then expected from the chinese virus.

    his response on a federal level was just fine.

    he never wanted to an foreigners...just illegals - yes other countries are finally following the President’s lead on the chinese virus and limiting travel.
     
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  22. struth

    struth Well-Known Member

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    so how did they get the internal data as your headline suggest?
     
  23. Jestsayin

    Jestsayin Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Yupper,
     
  24. gorfias

    gorfias Well-Known Member

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    What is it that Republicans think Trump is doing wrong? Not being enough behind, say, BLM, or not opposing them enough?
    And remember; Hillary Clinton had a 98.5% likelihood of winning. I will crawl over broken glass to vote Trump. But I hang up on pollsters. How can anyone really be sure what the vote will be?
     
  25. Grey Matter

    Grey Matter Well-Known Member Donor

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    I disagree in that I think this year it was a substantial concern to Dem primary voters that their choice will win in November, and I am very disappointed with the result.

    More importantly, I am even more concerned that our process is so flawed that a man that would not pass a basic TS/BI check for a top secret clearance simply due to his history of litigation, debt and undisclosed financial obligations to foreign nationals was allowed to become Potus, and the system's alternative is a man that will be 78 upon entering office and is pretty clearly in early stages of the loss of his mental acuity exacerbated surely by a reportedly lifelong challenge with various speech impediments, has a history of failure in seeking the office, and is quite unlikely to complete his first term of office. And there is no transparency of process toward whom he and the DNC are deciding to run as the VP: sketchy AF.
     
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