Fauci: new cases could reach 100,000 per day

Discussion in 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) News' started by Arkanis, Jun 30, 2020.

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  1. 557

    557 Well-Known Member

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    What specifically makes Physical Chemists contrarian? I suppose a lot of my ideas on authority come from being self employed my whole adult professional life. I can’t imagine the trials of a research scientist in academia. Way too many chiefs cutting into the time you want to spend doing what you love about your occupation. :)

    I agree with a caveat. One can agree with the authority on the facts and still be taken advantage of by the authority. What the authority uses those facts to accomplish is important as well.
    I know that explanation has appeal, but it just doesn’t pass the logic test for me. First, person to person infections spread exponentially. It isn’t correct to say masks won’t help when rates are low. In fact their potential to limit spread is exponentially greater in the beginning because stopping one infection early pays higher dividends than stopping many infections later. So essentially, the action taken to lie to the people caused the virus to spread exponentially unabated, creating the necessity for more PPE for healthcare workers that was already in short supply. The action taken was self defeating.

    That leads to the second logic fail. If we take the position infection rates and infections were so low masks were unnecessary, it’s virtually impossible for there to be enough hospitalizations to necessitate large amounts of PPE. This is a case where both things can’t be true at the same time.

    Finally, the lie is likely responsible for the reluctance of many people to wear masks today. Fauci and Co. sacrificed their credibility for something that let the virus spread unabated early and now has resulted in less mask usage today. Of course the ripple effects will continue if a vaccine is developed. There is nobody in government now who can be trusted explicitly and vaccination rates will suffer if a vaccine becomes available. Politicians/bureaucrats (Yes all politicians!) ought to realize lies have consequences and should take those consequences into consideration before lying for short term gain.
    I understand the reasoning as well. But it fails miserably in a cost/benefit analysis in the long run. I’m still somewhat interested in Fauci’s possible conflicts of interest. I’ve not taken the time to research myself and am quite leery of the allegations I’ve seen so far. But for someone who has been in bureaucratic politics as long as he has, he’s either the most incorruptible man on the planet if he’s legit his own man, or there are some entanglements somewhere. His willingness to mislead when he could have recommended homemade masks or something makes me think he isn’t incorruptible. Perhaps he’s always had the best intentions and the mask thing was a mistake he regrets as well. That’s another possibility.
     
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  2. Quantum Nerd

    Quantum Nerd Well-Known Member

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    Physical Chemists tend to be contrarian (at least that's what I was told several times by other scientists) because of their desire to understand the fundamentals of how the world works, getting beyond the biases and misconceptions that our brains are trained for and have evolved to. If you ever try to study quantum mechanics, a field initially developed by physical chemists and physicists, you would realize that there is nothing common sense or intuitive about it. It is basically a mathematical concept.

    I think you and I basically agree on Fauci. It seems that for you, that one initial lie about PPE was a deal breaker. I am more willing to forgive, because I feel that in a pandemic it is important to shape public opinion. Leaving it for the individual to make their own choices, whether responsible or not, mostly driven by basic brain stem emotions, maybe good for individual freedom, but bad for public health. How to you balance between the two? I don't know.
     
  3. 557

    557 Well-Known Member

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    That makes sense. To make advancements you have to do things that sound crazy to others that haven’t asked the questions you are trying to answer. Quantum mechanics fascinate me. But I lack the capability to delve into the mathematics so my understanding will always be superficial. But yeh I get the counter intuitive part.

    Personally, no deal breaker with me. I take everything from government with a grain of salt and I get salt delivered on one ton pallets of 50 lb bags. :) I know a number of people personally who lost a lot of faith in him over this. I’ll continue to appreciate the good information he provides and evaluate it all just like before.

    Public health vs personal freedom is tough and can get pretty complicated. Especially if you start to question motives for choosing public health over personal freedom. Often at the core it is personal selfishness. We want a healthy society so our Amazon orders show up quickly. Or so we can eat ribeye three times a week. Or so we can have a cavity filled. During a pandemic we want to pass risk of infection on to people who make all that happen while we at the same time want to be protected from infection by imposing our will on others in the way of masks etc.

    As a final aside, if persons making decisions for themselves is driven by brain stem emotions, decisions made for others are as well. Me deciding what’s best for another person or society as a whole is driven by the same thing. So decisions made on other’s behalf are inherently as lousy and irresponsible as those made by an individual for themselves. I think this is where blind trust (or any trust) in authority is potentially very dangerous.

    I don’t have a perfect answer either.
     
  4. FreshAir

    FreshAir Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    yep, Trump did not handle the protests on the right or the left very well - Trump does not handle anything very well
     
  5. FreshAir

    FreshAir Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    agree, he lied to cover up for Trump's shortage of masks, he praises Trump - Fauci knows what is right, but he does sometimes cover for Trump sadly

    that is what it is like working for Trump - the Trump admin has lost the trust of the people

    anyone that lies for Trump deserves to get their noses rubbed in it, even Fauci
     
    Last edited: Jul 7, 2020
  6. Eleuthera

    Eleuthera Well-Known Member Donor

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    What I would like to know is how Fauci knew in 2017 that "this administration will face an epidemic". How did he have that prior knowledge?

    How did he know there would be a second wave?

    As one like yourself who uses math, does it follow mathematical logic that if in month 1 X tests were administered, and then in month 4 five times as many tests were administered, there will be an increase in the number of infections revealed?
     
  7. Josephwalker

    Josephwalker Banned

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    What should Trump have done to stop the riots IYO?
     
  8. Josephwalker

    Josephwalker Banned

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    At least you now admit we can’t trust Fauci and his analysis of current events
     
  9. FreshAir

    FreshAir Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    can't trust anyone that works for the Trump admin as they have to be careful not to bruise their bosses ego
     
  10. FreshAir

    FreshAir Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    he could have started by not trying to throw gas on the fire
     
  11. Josephwalker

    Josephwalker Banned

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    And how did Trump throw gas on the fire?
     
  12. Josephwalker

    Josephwalker Banned

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    How did Fauci lying about mask have anything to do with Trumps ego?
     
  13. FreshAir

    FreshAir Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Trump always throws gas on the fire

    like went he goes on a rant about black football players taking a knee, but not white nationalists chanting "blood and soil. Jews will not replace us"?
     
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  14. FreshAir

    FreshAir Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    he was covering for Trump's failure to get masks and other supplies as he promised
     
    Last edited: Jul 7, 2020
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  15. Josephwalker

    Josephwalker Banned

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    Fauci covers for Trump? That's laughable. He's part of the establishment that undermines Trump at every opportunity.
     
  16. Josephwalker

    Josephwalker Banned

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    So no examples of Trump throwing gas on the fire of riots. That's what I thought.
     
  17. FreshAir

    FreshAir Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    like anyone that works for Trump, they have to walk a fine line, being careful not to bruise Trump's fragile ego
     
  18. Arkanis

    Arkanis Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Jul 8, 2020
  19. hawgsalot

    hawgsalot Well-Known Member

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    LOL comparing the protest is funny, blaming Trump on the millions of lefties protesting is down right dumb.
     
  20. SEAL Team V

    SEAL Team V Banned

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    Fauci: new cases could reach 100,000 per day

    We need the headlines to read

    Fauci: new cases could reach
    10,000,000 per day


    That way we’ll be done with this political pandemic in a month and get back to making this country great again.
     
  21. Josephwalker

    Josephwalker Banned

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    That’s putting the fire out not fanning the flames.
     
  22. Lesh

    Lesh Banned

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    "In a month"?

    Yea...like Trump's claim that it would be over by Easter.

    How'd that work out?
     
  23. Lesh

    Lesh Banned

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    Yesterday...over 70,000

    Listen to Fauci. He knows
     
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  24. Quantum Nerd

    Quantum Nerd Well-Known Member

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    +77,000 today, so we already almost doubled since your post 17 days ago.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/17/health/us-coronavirus-friday/index.html

    Do you still doubt Fauci's prediction? Do you still think he should step down? I'd day, 100,000 new cases a day is now starting to look conservative.
     
    Last edited: Jul 17, 2020
  25. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

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    We can now confirm that the past trajectory of Covid19 is indicative of future results, however, since several months ago, we’ve made progress in the area of improved treatment, thus, presumably, a lower HPFR (Hospitalized Patients Fatality Rate)
     
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