What if we never get a vaccine for the virus?

Discussion in 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) News' started by Dayton3, Jul 3, 2020.

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  1. Dayton3

    Dayton3 Well-Known Member

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    Everybody seems optimistic that we'll have a vaccine for the virus by the end of this year or sometime in 2021 at worse. But what if that doesn't happen? What if we never are able to develop an effective vaccine or even that if we do have a vaccine it is like influenza and requires mass inoculations every year?

    We can't shutdown the economy every time we have indications of a major outbreak. The American economy probably can't withstand another shutdown as it is.

    So what can be done?
     
  2. Balto

    Balto Well-Known Member

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    At that point, you have to keep the idea of a "new normal" from becoming commonplace. Governors are already trying to program the idea of a new normal into their citizens. That scares me more than the idea we may not see a mass produced vaccine Then you have to weigh the possibility of moving abroad, where such thinking hasn't taken hold. To or to not learn a new language fluently, change currency, etc. Our best bet would be to disavow any thoughts of a new normal, and strongly discourage others from entering that state of thought. The shutdown didn't have to happen, we've endured two-three pandemics nearly in the last decade alone. Did people lockdown during H1N1, or Zika? Did you see bans on US citizens entering during the Ebola outbreak? No.
     
  3. Distraff

    Distraff Well-Known Member

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    There is a good chance we won't ever find an effective vaccine ever. The best way to beat this virus is to eradicate it. We lock down the whole country for a couple months. Once each county reports zero cases, we open them back up. If a county reports cases, we lock that county back down again. We close borders and airports as well, until we can set up an effective testing/quarantine procedure for people coming in. Next, we do millions of tests per day to help determine if we need to lock down the county.
     
  4. Dayton3

    Dayton3 Well-Known Member

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    Except we can't do that. The U.S economy won't survive it My larger point in this thread is that at some point Americans are just going to have to accept a substantial annual death toll from the virus. Probably a couple of hundred thousand annually.
     
  5. Distraff

    Distraff Well-Known Member

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    Why wouldn't it survive that? We could make another stimulus bill and supplement the economic cost. We could open up the country on a county basis, and a lot of counties already have few cases and could open up quickly.

    A couple hundred thousand is probably our current number in just a few months with a lockdown. Letting the virus spread uncontrolled all year instead of a few months will probably kill a couple million per year since many times more people will get infected and there is a longer-timeframe. If hospitals get overwhelmed, it will be several times more.

    In addition to millions of deaths, we would also need to build a lot more hospitals and hire more medical professionals to handle all the covid cases, which will greatly increase healthcare costs. You would also see significantly reduced economic activity from people who are fearful to go out, especially people who aren't young. So we can expect a long-term recession at least, if not a depression.
     
  6. apexofpurple

    apexofpurple Well-Known Member

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    We do what we do best: innovate. So what if we have to massive changes to our lifestyle? The human race has been doing that since day 1. We used to crap in outhouses and ride in carriages. We used to write letters with pen and paper and stand by the kitchen wall to make phone calls. We used to put milk bottles on the front porch every night and use actual slabs of ice in our refrigerators. Innovations have changed virtually every aspect of our lives and plague or no plague they will continue to do so.

    So if we cant find a vaccine for COVID then we'll simply innovate and change the way we do everything to suit it. We'll transform grocery stores into online only food distributors that will assemble your order and place it in your trunk. Physical sporting events will give way to the growing e-sports markets. Virtual schools and worship services will give 24/7 access to all. We'll find ways to do away with the need for large assemblies of people until such time as COVID can be neutralized and in the process we'll create a resilient system that wont need to shutdown for the next plague that hits.
     

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