President Trump's path(s) to victory - 3 weeks out

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by HurricaneDitka, Oct 14, 2020.

  1. HurricaneDitka

    HurricaneDitka Well-Known Member

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    Here's my view of what President Trump has to do to win, ~3 weeks out from the election. Most of my analysis is drawn from numbers provided by the poll (and news) aggregator RealClearPolitics.

    First off, there are 125 EC votes for the President in safe / likely / leaning R states. There are also a couple of historically Republican states (voted for McCain, Romney, and Trump in 2016) in which President Trump is currently leading in the RCP average: Texas and Georgia. Those are probably his easiest toss-up state wins, and would add another 54 EC votes to his column, bringing his total to 179.

    After that, his next-easiest pickups are probably historically-Republican states where he's narrowly trailing in the polls. Arizona (11) and North Carolina (15) both fit in this category, although it should be noted that NC did narrowly vote for Obama in 2008 before swinging back to the GOP in 2012 and 2016. If President Trump manages to overcome his polling deficit (again - both were favored for HRC in 2016 according to the polls) and win those two states, that would bring his EC total to 205. 65 to go.

    After that, there are a whole mess of Obama-Trump states, states which went for Obama in 2008 and 2012 but swung to President Trump in 2016: Ohio (18), Iowa (6), Florida (29), Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16), and Pennsylvania (20). Those are listed in order of Biden's polling average lead, so if we start adding up OH + IA + FL + WI would give President Trump 268 EC votes.

    From there, President Trump could get over the hump to 270 a few different ways: winning MI or PA would seem the most straightforward path, but there are also two EC votes that he could pick up in NE2 and ME2 that would eek out a victory (270 to 268). Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), and Minnesota (10) all offer more remote Trump pick-up possibilities - they went for HRC in 2016 and polling averages now show them leaning towards Biden.

    So that's it. President Trump has plausible paths to victory, but they pretty much all rely on the polls being inaccurate, like they were in 2016.
     
  2. Daniel Light

    Daniel Light Well-Known Member

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    We'll know as soon as they call Penn. and Florida during the election.

    If Trump takes either of those states, he could win. If he loses both, he's toast big time.
     
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  3. drluggit

    drluggit Well-Known Member

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    Why are democrats acting like they are losing? I expect it's because they believe they are. I assume every poll out there is significantly undercounting republican votes. And when Trump wins, I expect the democratic universe to explode in anger, violence, the way they have all summer.
     
  4. Daniel Light

    Daniel Light Well-Known Member

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    The difference is that in 2016, the polls showed Trump gaining on Hillary in the months leading up to the election. The final polls in the days before the
    election were actually quite close to the final numbers in the popular vote (the polls measure likely voters, not Electors) showing Clinton leading by about
    3 - 4 % (with a 3 point margin of error). Right now, Trump is either losing ground or in a steady state with those polls.

    Not saying this is absolute proof, but it a different snapshot in time than 2016 when Trump was steadily gaining ground at this point.
     
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  5. Andrew Jackson

    Andrew Jackson Well-Known Member

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    ZERO Chance that Trump Wins in PA.

    Biden already has PA on Lockdown.

    Trump could win FL and still get soundly defeated.

    Trump is Toast.

    In fact, Trump could actually win PA and FL and LOSE.

    Biden could get to 270 by:

    The '16 Clinton Map +MI, WI, AZ, and NE-2.

    Here is the Biden 270 Map (even with Trump taking FL and PA):

    [​IMG]

    Tl;Dr--Trump is TOAST (no matter what)
     
  6. drluggit

    drluggit Well-Known Member

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    I doubt these polls are including the number of folks who don't answer, or are otherwise unwilling to express an opinion given the political climate or likelihood that in some parts of the country acknowledging that they would support Trump might lead to violence against them. That's the reality of what is going on, and even in conservative areas, folks aren't sayin. so, how would any of these polls be likely useful? Every time I see one, I assume the point is to demoralize republican voters by demanding they recognize there is no point in voting given the lead those polls then express. I can't overcome this dynamic.
     
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  7. drluggit

    drluggit Well-Known Member

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    I think you missed states for Trump. The polls this relies on aren't accurate, so why demand we should become demoralized because you demand it?
     
  8. Daniel Light

    Daniel Light Well-Known Member

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    But it was the same dynamic in 2016.
     
  9. drluggit

    drluggit Well-Known Member

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    Nah, the backlash in 2016 isn't the same as it is today. Democrats and their mobs are out in force, and frankly, it's not a good sign for how democrats intend to start destroying the nation after the election.
     
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  10. Dispondent

    Dispondent Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Even liberal rags like the State Journal are still saying its a close race here in Wisconsin, too close to call. While the national media is pretending this thing is over. Its far from over and you can literally see the enthusiasm gap between the two. Once you get out of the urban hellholes there is virtually no Biden presence in Wisconsin. I imagine its similar in other places, but more importantly Trump supporters I know don't talk about it, its not worth the hassle and abuse...
     
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  11. HurricaneDitka

    HurricaneDitka Well-Known Member

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    You learned nothing about making cocksure predictions from 2016, did you?
     
    Last edited: Oct 14, 2020
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  12. gfm7175

    gfm7175 Well-Known Member

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    Thank goodness for the Trump supporters, polling IS inaccurate (and I would even argue mostly meaningless).
    https://politiplex.freeforums.net/thread/82/value-polls-debunked

    I have long predicted, and still stand by my prediction, that Trump is going to win with AT LEAST 300 electoral votes (but will likely win with even more electoral votes than he did last time). How do I figure??

    I dismiss all political polling as meaningless, and I instead go by what I see and hear about "on the ground". For instance, I drive around A LOT of Southern and Central Wisconsin on a regular basis, and I happen to see the political signs/displays that people put out. I can easily ASSURE you that the polling claiming that Trump is down 6-10ish points in Wisconsin is COMPLETE and utter GARBAGE...

    Yes, Dane County (the most liberal county in the State) has plenty of Biden signs up, even in the more rural areas of the county, but they had almost as many Hillary signs up in 2016... But get outside of the county lines and BAM, an instant switchover to Trump signs vastly outnumbering Biden signs, and this is true no matter where I traveled (besides the bigger cities and the little pockets of Democrat support here and there, such as some Indian reservations, the Eau Claire area, the Appleton area, and the Superior/Bayfield/Ashland area way up North)... I've heard people tell me that there are plenty of Trump signs up even in the Milwaukee city area, which bodes well for Trump, as well as my first ever pro-right-sign sighting in downtown Madison (Trump sign, complete with a Trump flag)...

    The "enthusiasm" for Democrats here is not at all for Biden, but rather for "anti-Trump". For Republicans, however, enthusiasm for Trump seems to be stronger than it was in 2016. I think Trump has a good chance of holding onto Wisconsin. I've also heard similar stories for many other toss-up States, and even for States that Democrats supposedly have in the bag...


    In the end, I think that Trump will hold onto most (if not all) of the States that he won in 2016, and I think that he will also add at least Minnesota and Nevada into the red column, if not also adding in some States that he "has no chance in"... (New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia, New Mexico, etc...) I think that he is once again being severely underestimated in the polls, possibly even more-so than last time, and especially among the Latino and Black communities...

    My biggest fear, however, is that Dems could possibly win back the Senate, and retain the House, which means that Trump will be ousted via impeachment, not for any crime, but simply because they hate him so much.
     
    Last edited: Oct 14, 2020
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  13. yabberefugee

    yabberefugee Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Think that is all very plausible. I am suspect after I heard there are citizens that have a way of answering the same polls numerous times for Biden. Personally, no one has asked my my opinion, and if they did.....doubt if I'd answer them honestly.
    I get excited because the more pumped up the left gets........the funner it is gonna be when their balloon pops!
     
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  14. gfm7175

    gfm7175 Well-Known Member

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    I actually pretty much agree with you for once... :)

    Those two States will definitely be key indicators as to how the election across the nation will unfold... If Trump loses both PA and FL, then I'd say that he is toast and will lose by a mile. If he wins one of those two States, then I'd say that he's got a shot at winning a rather close election. If he wins both of those States, then I'd say that he pretty much has the election in the bag, maybe even in a landslide...
     
    Last edited: Oct 14, 2020
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  15. gfm7175

    gfm7175 Well-Known Member

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    I've heard that polls are under-counting republican votes, and that wouldn't surprise me. I also think that they are missing just how many latinos and blacks will support Trump come November...
     
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  16. gfm7175

    gfm7175 Well-Known Member

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    Ummm, no.... If PA was a lock for Biden, then Biden wouldn't be campaigning so hard in that State and Trump wouldn't even be bothering with that State, yet both of them seem to be in that State more than any other State... same with FL...
     
  17. Junkieturtle

    Junkieturtle Well-Known Member Donor

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    As a PA resident, I can tell you for sure that it is not a given that Biden is going to win here. Trump is not toast yet. He won't be until the votes are in. He surprised us all once, which should give everyone who opposes him good reason to not celebrate until the smoke has cleared. Things are different this time around sure. There's no Hillary Clinton and Trump is no longer an unknown quantity. But it would be folly to write him off no matter what the polls are saying.
     
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  18. HurricaneDitka

    HurricaneDitka Well-Known Member

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    It's not a concern. It takes a 2/3 super-majority to convict, not a bare majority of 51:

    Even if the dems win a majority in the Senate, they can't throw President Trump out via impeachment. There's no realistic scenario where we get 67 dem senators.
     
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  19. gfm7175

    gfm7175 Well-Known Member

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    Whoops, that fact completely slipped my mind for a second there. You are absolutely correct.
     
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  20. WalterSobchak

    WalterSobchak Well-Known Member

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    How can Trump supporters claim that Trump voters are hiding, afraid to claim they support and are voting for Trump because they are afraid of violent libs, yet in the same breathe constantly brag about how yuge Trump's rallies are and how enthusiastic they are for him?

    Which is it, are they afraid and hiding, or are they attending his rallies showing their support?

    My personal experience, Trump supporters do not hide their support for Trump. They are loud and proud to support that dipshit.
     
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  21. yabberefugee

    yabberefugee Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Com'on man! I wanna hear you sing the virtues of Joe and Kamala man! Anyone can put down the duly elected President!
     
  22. WalterSobchak

    WalterSobchak Well-Known Member

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    Biden is not Trump. That is the only reason I need to vote for him.
     
  23. Dispondent

    Dispondent Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Same strategy Hillary used, yet you folks will be outraged when you get the same result...
     
  24. WalterSobchak

    WalterSobchak Well-Known Member

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    Hillary was despised, Biden isn't. Hell, I didn't vote for Hillary. But go ahead and keep thinking that the Country just secretly loves Trump.
     
  25. Gatewood

    Gatewood Well-Known Member

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    Yes, but since exploding in anger is what the radicals among the Dems have already been doing for the last six months -- with burning parts of cities to show for it -- do we really think that anyone will even notice? After a while any unchecked pattern of behavior becomes the norm.
     
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