Polls show Biden will win - like Hillary, right? Opinion

(Title slightly modified due to character count)

https://news.yahoo.com/polls-show-biden-win-course-180551687.html

Every Trump supporter is saying that he will win because polls are not accurate, like in 2016. This opinion piece indicates that they are much more accurate this time around, as pollsters learned from their mistakes in 2016.

So it's looking like Biden will be the next president, unless Trump cheats, claims fraud (with no basis on reality) and manage to get his buddies in the Courts to find for him.

 

So, it’s all the same story:
1. Polls were accurate for popular vote.
Too bad we don’t elect presidents by popular vote.
2. Not enough sampling of all segments of population.
Well, every time I get a call from anyone doing surveys I just hang up - they always call during the time when I’m at work and I’m not going to stop doing what I’m doing to talk politics on the phone for half an hour. I really don’t know how polls can try to correct for this problem of them not being able to reach certain segments of the population, you know, the ones who are actually busy working and earning a living.
3. Lower number of undecided voters.
I do think there is a lower number of undecided voters. But were those voters who voted for Trump in 2016 really undecided, or did polls fail to reach them and sample their opinion?

This opinion piece is a nothingburger.

 

Nothing has changed from 2016, just check the polling demographics. That is, if you can even get that info...

 

The polls of likely voters in the week before the 2016 election were actually fairly accurate. They showed Hillary with a 3 - 5% lead with a 3 point margin of
error. Hillary ended up with 2% more votes then Trump.

 

There are some red flags this time. The polls mirror 2012 more so than 2016.

 

I think this election will be closer than the polls but Biden does have the edge, and I doubt there are enough undecided to change the outcome.

 

This nothingburger will become a juicy cheeseburger with all the fixings on November 3rd. Then we'll be eating that, and you'll be eating crow.

 

They say it has changed... they are polling more whites with no college degree, which they say was the group that was under-polled and thus rendered the polls inaccurate in 2016.

 

Obviously, Biden is a LOCK.

If anything, the polls are underestimating Biden's lead.

 

Everything has changed.

Seniors have turned against Trump, why do you think Trump screwed over the mail??

Conservatives have turned against Trump, like the Lincoln Project.

Trumps support among women has dropped, he has lost suburban women.

Dem early voting is at record levels.

That's why there's the rush to get Barrett on the bench, he is shooting for a repeat of the 2000 theft, I mean election.

Republican internal polling is terrible, not surprising since recent public polling shows the Senate turning Blue. Which I predicted some time ago.

But... you are not entirely wrong. Trump has an army of people intent on screwing things all to hell for the Dems. Which has Dems in a cold sweat.

But in a fair election, Trump would get better odds from Powerball.

 

That’s what they said two weeks before 2016 elections.

 

But not where it counted. And these polls have the same issues.

 

Of course!
Biden will be elected no matter what. Everyone should just stay home. Why risk getting outside when you know the result and can stay home in your pajamas?

 

This elections baffles me.

They say Biden is winning, but nobody goes to his events.
They say Trump is losing, but his events are packed.
Seems like Trump is getting more hispanic votes this year then in 2016.
Seems like Trump is getting more black votes than 2016.
Biden has not received any tough questions

One thing for certain.....
This is the election of the 2 biggest liars in presidential politics history that I can remember.
Both these guys lie about everything.

American can do better !

 

The polls have been adjusted after they missed the mark in 2016. But the pandemic will complicate the polls. I think there is a 2 in 3 chance Biden will win because the polls are overwhelmingly on his side, but Bidens lead is far narrower in swing states than nationally. Democrats are more hesitant to go out because of the pandemic. And democrats are less politically active in general and more likely to not vote if it is less convenient for them.

 

This one is far different from the one in 2016, as per post #10 above.
On the other hand I'm QUITE CERTAIN that Trump will cry fraud (regardless of the fact that there will be no significant fraud) and will try to steal the election with the help of the court and his brand new nominee Barrett. I think he may even succeed in this effort. The consequences, though, will be terrible. We'll become a de facto dictatorship. If that's what you want for our country, then rejoice when the theft materializes.

 

Good point. Those with jobs and families don't have time and are therefor underrepresented. Also, people who answer unidentified calls are not the brightest considering most of them are robo-calls, telemarketers, and scammers.

 

That won't work this time because people know what happened in 2016. And while Biden's advantage is considerable, it will be narrowed by Trump's cheating which in many cases will be successful. Those like me who care for the integrity of the democratic process hope that he will cheat and cheat but it will still be insufficient for him to steal the election. But it is very possible that he will succeed - not in being elected; that ship has sailed. But in stealing the election.

 

Hm, OK, Trump's Superspreader Events are packed. True. Silly guys and gals. Imprudent.
Biden's events are NOT open the to public, due to Biden not willing to risk the health of his supporters, appropriately. Every time a right wing medium makes the point that nobody attended the event, they conveniently fail to say that the public wasn't invited.

Now, look at fundraising. Biden's is several folds bigger than Trump's. This should show to you why there is no enthusiasm gap for Trump, much the opposite. The enthusiasm gap is the other way around. And don't even try to say that it's because of corporate donations. It's not, since Biden wants to increase corporation taxation. It's people, and they are donating MUCH MORE to Biden than to Trump.

Sure, it seems like Trump is marginally getting a bit more Hispanics and Blacks than Hillary did... but in many other, more numerous demographics, Trump has lost a lot of terrain.

Anyway, keep thinking that Trump is ahead, if it comforts you, but then brace for an unpleasant surprise on November 4 or a few days later, IN CASE THE ELECTION COUNT IS FAIR. Because of course we all know that Trump will try to cheat, and he may very well succeed. But he won't win fair and square. No way. If he wins, it will be through the courts, and of course that's what he is counting on, giving how many judges he's nominated, and given his new sweetheart who will switch the SCOTUS in his favor (because without her, this wouldn't happen even with the 5-4 conservative majority because Roberts is sick and tired of Trump and likely bent on not allowing him to cheat, but with Barrett there, even with Roberts siding with the Libs, Trump will still prevail 5-4. So, yes, he'll steal the election.

But he can't WIN the election.

 

Where is the evidence of this?

 

Or pull some sort of last minute surprise like the Comey did with the Clinton Emails

To be honest, this time, even if they could show Biden standing over a dead man with a gun in his hand I don’t think it would change people’s minds - Trump has become that toxic. I was just listening to Olberman talk about Sen Sasses comments on Trump

Expect more GOP senators to Run down the anchor rope before the ship sinks

 

So the polls are calling it for Biden based on popular vote?

 

Among others.

And there are two other indicators that should worry Trump:

1- No President has ever been re-elected with 43% of job approval.

2- No President has ever been re-elected during a recession when the same recession started under his watch.

 

In the article I quoted. Look at the OP. Click. Read.

 

Not to forget, there are many more voters who have already voted this year, or will before November 3rd. So last minute surprises won't have the same impact.