Yo-yo Epidemiology & Lock Downs

Yo-yo Epidemiology & Lock Downs.


Has it escaped notice that lock downs don't seem to work
in the long run.

Riverside County, California was liberated and within a week,
under lock down - again.
This pattern of liberated to be quickly locked down again seems like deja vu all over again.

Yo-yo Epidemiology & Lock downs
just doesn't seem to be working.
As if the virus is here to stay and lock downs merely delay a compliant citizens illness as a susceptible population is released to the streets.



Quarantine does work for some infectious illnesses, but not all.
Witness yo-yo epidemiology in action.
Witness Riverside County that includes Palm Spring.
Witness similar reports from other areas.



Moi, M.D. ret.

Quarantine
Across an immense, unguarded, ethereal border, Canadians, cool and unsympathetic,
regard our America with envious eyes and slowly and surely draw their plans against us. ​

 

Lockdown seems to be working well in my city. 5 million people and daily new cases continue to decrease.
Presently there’s a bit of an issue with people of Non English Speaking Background who don’t understand that quarantine precludes attending school.
We’re all hoping that there’s not a blowout in this area.
“
The health department expects more coronavirus cases to be detected in a growing outbreak in Melbourne’s northern suburbs that has resulted in more than 500 people being told to self-isolate.

All of the state's five extra cases recorded on Thursday were connected to the cluster, identified just days before Premier Daniel Andrews was due to announce a further easing of the city's lockdown restrictions.

The cluster includes 16 active cases across six households, one of whom was a primary school student who attended school for two days while infected with COVID-19 this week.

The Department of Health and Human services said in an update on Thursday that it was expecting more cases to emerge from 10 testing sites and contact tracing across several northern suburbs.

The new cases came as it was revealed that the boy attended East Preston Islamic College on Monday and Tuesday despite members of his family remaining in quarantine at home with active COVID-19 infections, and that the virus had spread as members of the extended family moved between households.”
From the Melbourne Age 22/10/2020.


Despite instances of badly supervised quarantine and isolation in hotels Which led to horrifying levels of infection in nursing homes, the pandemic has been throttled to manageable levels and the expected inundation of hospitals hasn’t occurred.
We have learnt many valuable lessons from this disease, one of which is that we need to keep infection control and management of infectious diseases education current. Nursing homes need nurses, not cheaply educated hands who don’t understand the reasoning behind PPE and the strict protocols associated with PPE.
Sallyally- RN ret.

 

Lockdowns are for the sick, not the healthy. And even most of the sick need only a week or two of a lockdown.

Why shoot the horse if its leg isn't broken?

 

Many people believe that the economic price of lockdown is too expensive in terms of death and disability.
You can regrow an economy but you can’t undo death and we don’t even know how many complications may ensue from the disease.

 

Where has an area been liberated
from a lock down and NOT
experienced a surge of clinical cases? eh @Sallyally

 

The lockdowns for COVID is about infecting hosts, not surviving the COVID.

That is the difference with a highly infectious that can be transmitted before symptoms.

Of course, the idiocy of people who demand their "right" to not need avoid infection to others even with having been exposed also a factor too.

 

I’ll let you know in a month.

 

Also, read this.
https://www.burnet.edu.au/news/1315...ia_should_aim_for_zero_covid_19_mystery_cases

 

~ Quarnteen the Democrats ! Recall the California governor !

 

Some see evidence that lockdowns work, but they have not thought it through. The lockdowns work, but as they've seen all over, once it's lifted the virus is still there.

The logical conclusion is that they must remain in lockdown forever. For some I guess that is acceptable, but for most it's not.

The natural process of herd immunity will happen, sooner or later. For the sake of sanity, sooner is better than later. For a virus with such a low mortality rate, sooner is better than later. The strong will survive and the weak will perish. Life goes on.

 

why?

gives ignorant politicians the appearance of doing something, albeit useless

virus remains active for up to 28 days on some surfaces but we keep hearing about mask mask mask

 

~ I believe this happens with each flu season .

 

hmm, let's think about that for a moment

lock everyone away because of a virus, any virus, pick your virus

then, with a virus that remains on surfaces for upwards of 28 days (mask doesn't help here), when people head out, there will be an increase in cases from a virus, any virus, pick your virus.

But here's the rub, covid is not a death sentence, it's become a political tool

so what is your point? Why not ask if water is wet?

 

2 million predicted to die without any mitigation

How many have died?

 

Get back to me a week after
the liberation of Victoria.

toi's Moi

Stop ​

 

Ok. It seems to be working here so don’t hold your breath for an upsurge in cases.

 

The lock down "is working"
with a compliant population.

The question is will it still "is working"
when this susceptible population is
liberated?

 

Yes. You do need a sensible population who accept science, for this to work.
Gradual reduction in restrictions so that flare ups will be seen early and stamped out.

 

We disagree.
Stay in touch 1 week after
Victoria is liberated.
Corona Virus is here to stay. Any season. etc.

 

Here to stay? Like SARS, Swine Flu, Bird flu etc?

 

No
Those tend to be seasonal.
The Corona virus is more rugged.
Rugged as in how long it can remain infectious
from a "surface". Temperature tolerance. etc.

 

The Yo-yo continues.

1) Winter is coming. Expect a rise in coronavirus infection
similar to Winter cold & flu cases increasing in Winter ? ?

2) https://news.yahoo.com/germany-enters-lockdown-amid-skyrocketing-161112024.html
Germany re-enters lockdown amid skyrocketing infection rates



What is so hard to understand.

Lockdowns create a susceptible population
When liberated, infection rates surge.
Then the population is put back on lockdown
until liberated to create another surge of infected
all over again like deja vu repeating itself.
The yo-yo continues.

Get It Or Not
Witness Germany the latest.
Witness repeated stories from different locations,
Riverside County (inclusive of Palm Springs, California)
a couple of weeks ago.


Moi

Don't ize
​

 

Is sewage testing done for COVID-19 in the US?
“Noted authorities”in my house believe that that testing sewage can identify down to a street which can then be isolated. This method finds the positive cases when contact tracing identifies contacts.
This would then obviate the massive disruption caused by lockdown.
Ps. Also picks up asymptomatic cases.

 

Sewage Testing - Don't know.
Anyone know?


@Sallyally - Any projections for the Liberation of Victoria?


Moi

STOP ​

 

Now France
Lockdowned again after liberte.

More here
http://www.politicalforum.com/index...-covid-19-lockdown-amod-surge-in-case.580398/


Moi