Ron's last poll

Discussion in 'Political Opinions & Beliefs' started by ronv, Nov 2, 2020.

  1. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    I have been using Real Clear Politics for my poll numbers, but then I kept noticing some strange outliers and really old polls in their average.
    A check of outliers usually turns up a pollster with a poor rating (using 538's method) .
    A look around turns up the CNN poll of polls that uses only polls from October up to today and only pollsters with B+ or higher ratings.
    So I tried to put together a chart with the swing states using RCP averages which are usually their last 7 polls. I also used their most recent. (Usually less than a week old.
    I did the same with the Poll of Polls.
    Also included are the 2016 results in column one and the Electoral votes in Column two.
    At the top of column one are the counts from 2016. So it's easy to do your own math with the numbers.
    If a number in the poll of polls is in yellow it's because there weren't 5 polls of they were not B+ or higher (Usually local polls in small states).
    And the last column is the average of the 4.
    There may be more out today, so I'll have another look tonight.
    upload_2020-11-2_9-54-39.png
     
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2020
  2. Darthcervantes

    Darthcervantes Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Thanks for your effort! i think its impossible to know the true stats because many Trump supporters won't share their opinion for fear of their lives.
     
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  3. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    Are those the ones surrounding the Biden bus?
     
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  4. Darthcervantes

    Darthcervantes Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Of course not! Those idiots acting like they were in a scene from a mad max movie are a super small representation of trump supporters.
     
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  5. Andrew Jackson

    Andrew Jackson Well-Known Member

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    Biden WILL WIN the EC.

    The most likely result has Biden's EV somewhere between 290 to 335.
     
  6. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    I corrected an error in Penn.
    upload_2020-11-2_19-5-12.png

    Added changes during the day.
    upload_2020-11-2_19-6-53.png

    And the two averages

    upload_2020-11-2_19-9-34.png
     
  7. Ronstar

    Ronstar Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    LOL!!!
     
  8. Ronstar

    Ronstar Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Biden will do better than Hillary.

    we know this.

    There is no Jill Stein. Economy is ****. Covid is still killing. Trump has a 42% popularity rating.
     
  9. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    Senate Races
    upload_2020-11-2_19-35-18.png
     
  10. Rush_is_Right

    Rush_is_Right Well-Known Member

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    All polls are a fantasy, like the 50 year global warming predictions that always fail. Trump wins in a landslide. Bet?
     
  11. Capt Nice

    Capt Nice Well-Known Member

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    No, it's the ones wearing camouflage, carrying AK's and planning to kidnap their Governor.
     
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  12. Quantum Nerd

    Quantum Nerd Well-Known Member

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    I bet there are as many wives of Trump fans, who say "yes dear" at home and when the pollsters call, but who secretly cast the ballot for Biden.
     
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  13. Rush_is_Right

    Rush_is_Right Well-Known Member

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    ^^^that's funny
     
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  14. Steelandrye

    Steelandrye Banned

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    Polls have been your morphine for years.. if they let you down again what will you do?
     
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  15. modernpaladin

    modernpaladin Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    And, lets be honest, a degree of 'F U' to the number crunching establishment.

    We don't like being on lists, even objectively benign lists.
     
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  16. nobodyspecific

    nobodyspecific Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Some very interesting results there. I've been thinking Montana is a bit further out of hand for D's this cycle for the Senate. Very surprised to see it go blue on your final day of poll crunching, but would still expect both that and IA to stay red tomorrow. Not sure on GA.

    For the POTUS polls, I am surprised to see a higher FL tilt than NC. Would expect FL to be a bit tougher for Biden than NC. Also a bit surprised by the AZ margin as I would expect that to be more obtainable than either NC or FL. But then I've been going by 538 and not really checking RCP this cycle. Otherwise things look mostly in line with what I'd expect. Thanks for sharing.
     
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2020
  17. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    Sure I got $10 donation to the forum.
    Want to sign up?
     
  18. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    I was surprised by Arizona too.
    Seems strange Kelly would go up and Biden down.
     
  19. Condor060

    Condor060 Banned Donor

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    This is the only poll I believe.
    123496838_873739663398890_3666370954227880168_n.jpg
     
  20. Condor060

    Condor060 Banned Donor

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    I'm in.
     
  21. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    You already have donor under your name and since you're a Trump supporter..........
     
  22. TheImmortal

    TheImmortal Well-Known Member

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    So since you seem to believe the polls. Let me ask you this question:

    Why have the polls tightened in the recent week or so?

    What I mean is that those polls giving Biden huge leads weeks ago also consistently told us that there are very few undecided voters out there. So how did those same polls get closer in the past couple weeks?

    I know the answer to that question is in their methodology. Weeks out they were GROSSLY over sampling dems and now if you look at those same methodologies on those same polls their sampling of democrats to republicans has gotten much closer to reality, while still providing dems a slight over sampling. The EXACT same thing they did in 2016.
     
    Last edited: Nov 3, 2020
  23. TheImmortal

    TheImmortal Well-Known Member

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    BTW I’m up this early cause I’m fixing to go get in line to vote for TRUMP
     
  24. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    It looks like the undecided started making up their minds to me.
    upload_2020-11-3_5-51-38.png

    I'm up this early because the dog had to pee. I voted weeks ago by mail.
     
  25. Surfer Joe

    Surfer Joe Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Lol...they are typical of the people that trump inspires.
     

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