Raphael Warnock wins the GA-SEN special election, Ossoff is ahead in the other SEN race

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by Statistikhengst, Jan 6, 2021.

  1. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    So, history has been written.

    Pastor Raphael Warnock (D) has defeated appointed appointed Senator Kelly Loeffler (R).
    Jon Ossoff (D) is currently leading incumbent David Perdue (R) by +13,000 votes. It's estimated that 4.6 million total ballots were cast in an off-year election. That alone is historic. If both win, then the Senate will be D50 / R50, which means that the Senate would be under Democratic Party control as of January 20th, 2021.

    It is estimated that when all the votes are counted, Warnock will have won by +1.9% and Ossoff is on track to win by between +0.9% - +1.1%. Both of those projected margins are well outside the automatic recount zone. However, with 17,000 overseas ballots still to come in on Friday, Perdue still has a chance to retake the lead, but then there would likely be a recount.

    When the dust has settled, I will do an exact analysis, but there are some important takeways here:

    1.) The electoral (county) maps of both races look identical to each other (by which counties were won by each party, not necessarily by margins, although they are very close to each other), which tells me that the two races tracked very closely to each other.

    2.) The vote in the four largest counties (Fulton, DeKalb, Cobb and Gwinnett) literally went out roof. The black vote was higher, decidedly higher, than the initial exit polls showed. It's hard to do really good polling during a raging pandemic. In Cobb county, election day voting exceeding the election day voting in November.

    3.) What happened in November, 2020 was not an abberation. Biden narrowly won the Peach State in November, despite all of soon-to-be ex-President Trump's lies, and now, the first Black Democrat ever in Georgia's history (Warnock was very smart to adopt the "I love puppies" approach in the light of Loeffler's racist attacks) has won a Senate seat and a Jew is about to win the second seat. All three of these elections were narrow wins. Not only these three, but the only purely statewide race that was one the ballot, namely that for the Public Service Commission 4, is also only a 2 point race, with the Republican Lauren Bubba McDonald Jr. only slightly ahead. The last Public Commission race, in 2016, was a nearly +30 point win for the Republican. All four commissioners are currently Republican. So, this race was not even supposed to be close.

    Here the media coverage of Warnock's win and yes, FOX has also called the race for Warnock:

    2021-01-006 GA double-runoffs-Warnock wins - WAPO.png 2021-01-006 GA double-runoffs-Warnock wins - NYT.png 2021-01-006 GA double-runoffs-Warnock wins - NBC.png 2021-01-006 GA double-runoffs-Warnock wins - FOX.png 2021-01-006 GA double-runoffs-Warnock wins - CNN.png 2021-01-006 GA double-runoffs-Warnock wins - CBS.png 2021-01-006 GA double-runoffs-Warnock wins - ABC.png
     
  2. Aleksander Ulyanov

    Aleksander Ulyanov Well-Known Member

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  3. Hoosier8

    Hoosier8 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Shut down again to start counting in the morning. Court again had to intervene to allow observers. Same ole same ole.
     
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  4. Hoosier8

    Hoosier8 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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  5. Dayton3

    Dayton3 Well-Known Member

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    A very sad day for this country.
     
  6. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    At the time the counting was stopped Ossoff's lead was 16k so the odds of the 17k overseas ballots ALL being for Perdue are slim. In addition there are still ballots being hand counted so the outcome is not yet determined one way or the other.

    With that said the concept of Moscow Mitch becoming MINORITY leader does have some appeal but at this stage we just have to wait and see what transpires.
     
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  7. Montegriffo

    Montegriffo Well-Known Member

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    Are you in North Korea?
     
  8. Heartburn

    Heartburn Well-Known Member

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    Does this remove all barriers to the $2K checks for all? Asking for a friend.
     
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  9. LangleyMan

    LangleyMan Well-Known Member

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    Voter suppression didn't work for Georgia Republicans? Oh, well...
     
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  10. Pants

    Pants Well-Known Member

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    The majority of Americans wanted to see a change from Trump. And now, it seems a majority of Georgians wanted to see a Dem controlled Senate. Why is it a sad day when the majority speaks and votes?
     
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  11. Shinebox

    Shinebox Well-Known Member

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    and you can blame Trump ...
     
  12. LangleyMan

    LangleyMan Well-Known Member

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    Trump cost the Republicans dearly. You can thank...

    25B26B3E-99A9-4511-A3AC-2DC3885D6374.gif

    for...

    87BC4534-26D7-47A6-BB9E-E54A277C101D.jpeg

    Check your mirror.
     
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  13. LangleyMan

    LangleyMan Well-Known Member

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    Would he step aside?
     
  14. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    He won't have a choice if the Dems win BOTH GA Senate seats.

    VP Harris gives the Dems a 51-50 majority.
     
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  15. Dayton3

    Dayton3 Well-Known Member

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    I do.
     
  16. gnoib

    gnoib Well-Known Member

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    By, by Mitch
     
  17. Asherah

    Asherah Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Yep, same ole: assume fraud unless disproven beyond a shadow of a doubt.

    Such reactions are further proof that Russians achieved their objective of sowing distrust in the U. S. election system.
     
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2021
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  18. UnapologeticallyAmerican

    UnapologeticallyAmerican Well-Known Member

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    Because the majority of people are dumber than a box of rocks?
     
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  19. Pants

    Pants Well-Known Member

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    You are certainly welcome to your opinion of the majority of Americans.
     
  20. UnapologeticallyAmerican

    UnapologeticallyAmerican Well-Known Member

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    Dumb people don't get a pass from me because they were born in America. To be honest, the last 3 decades of our public education system has turned out some of the most embarrassing Americans we have likely ever seen. It scares me that these people have the ability to affect my quality of life with their lazy, ill informed votes.
     
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2021
  21. Ddyad

    Ddyad Well-Known Member

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    It will be the same. Rigging elections works every time it is allowed.
     
  22. Ddyad

    Ddyad Well-Known Member

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    Human beings are generally, relatively, inherently intelligent. They are usually ignorant and misinformed because massive government institutions and the MSM want to keep them ignorant and misinformed.
     
  23. Aleksander Ulyanov

    Aleksander Ulyanov Well-Known Member

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    Are you a Trump supporter?
     
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  24. Thunderbolt

    Thunderbolt Active Member

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    Trump or fraud ?!
     
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2021
  25. Pants

    Pants Well-Known Member

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    Again - your right to your opinion. And while we agree on the educational system, I wonder what you thought of the choice for Secretary of Education in the Trump administration? It certainly didn't do anything to improve education for children - only financial gains for those who want to make money off of educational facilities.
     
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