U.S. Economy Contracted in 2020, but Growth Expected This Year

Discussion in 'Latest US & World News' started by Pro_Line_FL, Jan 28, 2021.

  1. Pro_Line_FL

    Pro_Line_FL Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    So, the 'best economy in history of mankind' delivers a -3.5% GDP growth in 2020. The average growth per year is around 1% from the past 4 years, which is pretty darn far from from best ever. Debt increased by 8 trillion, and unemployment rose 29% in 4 years. Fortunately the forecast for the coming year looks better

    U.S. Economy Contracted in 2020, but Growth Expected This Year
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...wth-expected-this-year/ar-BB1dauF8?li=BBnb7Kz
    That left 2020 with a 3.5% annual contraction, measured year over year, and was the first decline since the financial crisis and the largest since 1946. Measured from the fourth quarter to the same quarter a year ago, the economy shrank 2.5%
     
  2. stone6

    stone6 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    He confused "expansion" with "contraction," promising +3.5% instead of -3.5%.
     
  3. Pro_Line_FL

    Pro_Line_FL Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    He promised +4-5% as a new standard, but delivered an average of around 1%. You'd have to go pretty far back to find another president who performed so poorly economy-wise.
     
    yardmeat likes this.
  4. stone6

    stone6 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Yep...of course the pandemic was responsible for a lot of the recent problem...but that's only about 1 yr old. The three years prior never hit his target growth rates.
     
    Last edited: Jan 28, 2021
  5. Daniel Light

    Daniel Light Well-Known Member

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    The disconnect of the Orange Dude's supporters and reality is quite amazing. They keep taking about the "great" economy, but
    The Orange One never broke the 3.0% GDP that they said was the benchmark for a "good" President even before Covid.

    The Orange One is leaving office with the lowest GDP growth average of any modern US President and he's leaving
    with higher unemployment, China trade deficit higher, and the National Debt rose as much in 4 years as it did the
    previous 8 years under Obama.

    A "great" economy? WTF? In Up-side down world, maybe.
     
  6. Pro_Line_FL

    Pro_Line_FL Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Yes, the virus and the response to it did some damage, no one denies that. About the first 3 years, it was on par with Obama numbers, except that Trump accelerated spending & debt by a lot.
     
  7. stone6

    stone6 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I'm guessing, but I suspect that was for defense, tax cuts and subsidies?
     
  8. Pro_Line_FL

    Pro_Line_FL Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Tax-cuts with increase in spending usually increases debt, and the trade-wars which triggered bail-outs didn't help either.
     
  9. Mircea

    Mircea Well-Known Member

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    You don't know that since the final revision to QTR 4 GDP has not yet been published (and won't be for a while).

    You seem to be totally oblivious to the effects of STUPID-19 on the eocnomy.

    That's if you average in the contraction. Might I suggest you review 4th Grade Math to understand averages.

    You exist in an advanced mature 4th Level Economy. There is no evidence to suggest that GDP growth should ever exceed 3.0%-3.5% per year.
     
  10. Pro_Line_FL

    Pro_Line_FL Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    We are discussing the current numbers, but its true the final revised number could be even worse.

    (2.2 + 3.18 + 2.3 + -3.5) / 4 = 1.045%

    Any particular reason you should omit the years you don't like? Is that YOUR 4th grade partisan math?

    Obama talked along those lines, but Trump talked about 4-5% annual growth.
     
  11. fmw

    fmw Well-Known Member

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    U.S. Economy Contracted in 2020, but Growth Expected This Year

    Get government out of the way and it will explode.
     
  12. Mircea

    Mircea Well-Known Member

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    And Trump never got it.

    There's a reason why 2nd Level Economies grow at rates of 8% to 15% per quarter.

    And, there's a reason why a 2nd Level Economy that transitions into a 3rd Level Economy stops growing at those rates.

    There's also a reason why a 3rd Level Economy that moves into a 4th Level Economy only grows at 2%-3% annually.

    Those numbers are good. Nothing wrong with them. 2% is good and 3% is stellar and anything over 3% is gravy. 1%-1.5% would be average or ho-hum.

    If you're expecting 5%+ every quarter, that ain't gonna happen, not unless you regress economically.
     
  13. Chrizton

    Chrizton Well-Known Member

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    Yada Yada Yada. The whole world took an economic hit from COVID. Independent of what Trump promised, the US has been muddling through the real world version of the academically theoretical liquidity trap since at least 2010. The details are just different in the modern economy than Keynes envisioned in the 1930's. Instead of hoarding physical cash, people are hording cash equivalents like stocks, bonds, retirement accounts than can be readily converted to money if need be.
     
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2021
  14. Indlib

    Indlib Well-Known Member

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    All this winning is with regulations cut as well.

    As if to say, " I'll take my economic contraction with extra pollution please."
     
  15. Pro_Line_FL

    Pro_Line_FL Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    1% increase it not average in any economy, but I agree what you say about more mature economies growing at a slower rate. 2.5% growth is not bad for a country like US. We averaged 1% in the past 4 yrs, and without 2020 it would have been 2.5%, which is more or less the same as Obamas numbers.

    Not sure how much that played into it. The trade war was pretty much the opposite of "cutting" regulations. Massive increase in debt kept the stock market going.
     
    Last edited: Feb 9, 2021
  16. fmw

    fmw Well-Known Member

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    U.S. Economy Contracted in 2020, but Growth Expected This Year

    That expectation's fulfillment is up to government. If government gets out of the way and lets businesses operate, it will certainly happen. If not then I doubt it sincerely. The private sector has no control over the problem.
     
  17. PJO34

    PJO34 Well-Known Member

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    Of course growth is expected this year. The Obama/Biden administration started the economic expansion Trump killed after GW Bush left them the "Great Recession." It makes sense that the same team can do it again. You know what they say, "want to kill an economic expansion, elect a Republican president."
     

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