Biden gettin 'er done

Discussion in 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) News' started by ronv, Mar 2, 2021.

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  1. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    Biden used the DPA to get Merck and J&J to work together to increase production of the J&J single dose vaccine to move the schedule up a full 2 months. A new target of shipping enough vaccine by the end of may to do all adults.
    At the same time he has earmarked his pharmacy program to prioritize teachers with a goal of having all teachers with 1 shot by the end of this month.
    Hang in there people.

    Biden says there will be enough vaccine for American adults by end of May (msn.com)
     
    Last edited: Mar 2, 2021
  2. MJ Davies

    MJ Davies Well-Known Member

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    I was reading about that online earlier. I think he is doing well considering that some of these things weren't prepared or transitioned well.

    It FINALLY feels like there is a light at the end of the tunnel (and it's NOT an oncoming train)!

    P.S. I think your title is supposed to be the article headline unless it's posted in the "Opinions" section.
     
  3. Quantum Nerd

    Quantum Nerd Well-Known Member

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    It's a good goal, but, let's try to be realistic. Vaccinating everyone requires about 500 million doses, assuming that the J&J one dose vaccine will contribute 100 million doses. To the end of May is roughly 100 days (less than that, to be exact). This means we have to get to a sustained vaccination rate of 5 million per day, even on weekends. Right now, we are at 2 million per day, at peak days, more like 1.5 million per day sustained. Can we more than triple the sustained vaccination rate quickly? Possible. Is it likely? I don't know.
     
  4. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    They are all ramping up so fast I can't keep track anymore.
     
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  5. Quantum Nerd

    Quantum Nerd Well-Known Member

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    That's what I read on CNN. However, I am not sure how true those projections are. If you look at the daily vaccination rates, they basically haven't moved in three weeks. I have a thread on it about supposedly "exponential" increase in vaccinations, which is currently clearly in the linear phase. The problem is lack of supply. We got burnt by rosy projections of how many doses would be available in mid December. That's why I only believe it when I see daily vaccination rates going up. I am hopeful, but not convinced.
     
  6. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    Frankly, the refreshing part is we are going to try. :)
     
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  7. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    I'm guessing the next problem will be getting them in arms.
    But the J&J will really help with that as it's just like a flu shot.
     
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  8. Quantum Nerd

    Quantum Nerd Well-Known Member

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    I agree.

    However, maybe it is the cynic in me. Pfizer and Moderna, after all, are private companies. What is in it for them to spend a lot of money and effort to ramp up production very quickly, only to have all this expensive production capacity sit unused once the global vaccination push is over? For them, it would be much more sensible to ramp up the supply as slowly as they can, without losing to the competition.
     
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  9. Dayton3

    Dayton3 Well-Known Member

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    Most companies are motivated by things in addition to profits.
     
  10. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    I think right now Pfizer & Moderna are pretty expensive. J&J about 1/3 the price. So a dose now is worth 3 tomorrow.
     
  11. CenterField

    CenterField Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    What Biden indicated is that by the end of May there will be enough vaccine for all adults in the US. It doesn't mean that by the end of May all adults will have received the vaccine.
    Getting it from the maker is not the same as getting the vaccine into people's arms. So it will take a bit longer even if we have all the doses we need by the end of May.
     
  12. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    @CenterField
    I always kind of assumed the virus that would escape the vaccine would come from someone that has been vaccinated. Is that what you would expect?
    Do you think they tested those that got sick during trials to see what strain it was?
     
  13. CenterField

    CenterField Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    No, I don't think that it is what happened. There isn't enough of a mass of people vaccinated with the same vaccine to result in selection of resistant strains, during trials.
    The more common pathway for this virus to mutate, is its prolonged replicating life in some immunocompromised individuals. In this situation it's the survival of the fittest and a new variant may appear; next it contaminates a caretaker, and up it goes. The hypothesis about the origin of the B.1.1.7 in London postulates that it probably came from ONE index individual who was immunocompromised and had a long disease.

    This said, I'm talking about how these current have most likely variants originated. Once millions of people in a given location get vaccinated then yes, the virus might develop mutations to escape the vaccines. But a trial has only 15,000 to 25,000 people in the active arm, and that's not enough to create a situation of mutation to escape those antibodies in any significant way since the trial participants were presumably getting the virus from other people in the community at large.
     
    Last edited: Mar 2, 2021
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  14. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    So just to be clear. The truly resistant ones probably would come from a vaccinated individual.
    Do you think there are thousands of variants, but we only see the ones that "work" for the virus.
     
  15. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Who cares if Biden takes credit for Trump's accomplishments as long as people are happy that vaccines are coming. Appreciate Sleepy Joe for the "follow through".



    Editors' Pick|Dec 7, 2020,04:51pm EST

    upload_2021-3-2_21-59-3.png

    upload_2021-3-2_22-0-29.png

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/leahro...million-people-but-thats-all/?sh=50aba6722c2d

    --

    Hope the manufacturer's can produce to both Trump's and Joe's commitments. The DPA wasn't really any help. Everything depends on bottlenecks and other variables in the production and distribution system.

    It's sort of symbolic that Biden said he'd use the DPA on his 2nd day in office, now on the 39th day in office. The manufactures are doing everything they can to meet the 500 million doses which were ordered last year.

    --

    January 21, 2021...

    upload_2021-3-2_22-4-29.png

    Most of the companies with the capability to manufacture them that aren’t already in use are outside of the United States, so there’s little the U.S. government can do to gain more access to facilities.

    “The Defense Production Act will have no effect on them,” said Dr. Drew Weissman,

    Another option to increase capacity would be for vaccine manufacturers to take down some vaccine production lines so that they can be re-built to be more efficient and higher producing.

    This wouldn’t necessarily be something that the Defense Production Act would be used for, but it could increase production from existing facilities. However it carries significant trade-offs.

    “It’s a challenge to say, ‘We’ll forgo some throughput in the next three weeks in the hope we can get better production four weeks from now,” said Yadav.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...-19-vaccine-experts-say-take-time/6661234002/

    --

    Anyway, it does look like there is light at the end of what's been a 12-month tunnel so far. Looks like everything has been planned well and is in good order to get all the way through and out of the tunnel in a few months. I'm sure we can trust the Biden administration to keep on executing the plan.
     
    Last edited: Mar 2, 2021
  16. Chrizton

    Chrizton Well-Known Member

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    After a year of COVID trial and error, my local hospital is giving people with COVID steroids, antibiotics, and sending them home. This vaccine thing is nowhere close to the end.
     
  17. CenterField

    CenterField Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Yes and yes.
    Maybe a vaccinated individual who is not very immunocompetent.
    There are an estimated 300,000 variants already, last I looked into it, probably more by now. Most of these do not change the overall behavior of the virus in terms of how infectious and how lethal and how able to evade antibodies. The few variants that do have these behavioral changes, we call variants of concern. Currently there is less than a dozen that we've been watching and calling variants of concern. If you consult my thread about the variants you'll learn more about them.
    http://www.politicalforum.com/index.php?threads/sars-cov-2-variants.584511/
     
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  18. Giftedone

    Giftedone Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Yeah .. but the Pandemic is over for the most part - specially in places that got hit with the last big wave.. its moved through .. as viruses do - decreasing in toxicity with time .. This will end with a thud .. fairly soon .. and they can vaccine away .. and go "look what good we are doing".
     
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  19. Quantum Nerd

    Quantum Nerd Well-Known Member

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    I agree with this. However, the rate limiting step is currently not shipment or administration, but it is production. Therefore, the production rate has to triple to reach Biden's goal. That's why I am hopeful, but sceptical that we can reach this goal, see the numbers I have shown in previous responses to this thread. We will know in a few weeks. If daily vaccination rates haven't significantly increased by then, it will get exponentially harder to reach Biden's goal.
     
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  20. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    No. This vaccine thing will never end. Annual Covid shots will become just like annual flu shots going forward. Viruses like this are never "curable".

    It is a good thing we've learned to treat it while waiting for the vaccines so that death rates have dropped.
     
  21. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Yes. In order to speed production they have to take down current producing manufacturing lines to retool them, build additional lines in existing plants, or build new plants. Retooling will take current production off-line for a few weeks and building new plants will take months. Plus, all manufacturers are already running a full speed to try to meet orders for 500 million doses which were on order by the end of last year.

    But, Biden is "saying the right words" to comfort the public, so he's doing his job.

    The U.S. is also planning to participate in the WHO request that we donate vaccines to poor countries, so we may already have ordered a couple hundred million doses more than Americans actually want or need, or we may build a plant or two to supply other countries and help the poor.
     
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  22. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    [
    :)
     
  23. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    Dup.
     
    Last edited: Mar 3, 2021
  24. Quantum Nerd

    Quantum Nerd Well-Known Member

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    Well, the international demand could be our saving grace. Thus, instead of having the new production capacity start to sit unused in June, they'll use it to supply the rest of the world, which could take years to achieve. As to the US, Pfizer and Moderna have already won the vaccine competition race, so they have no incentive to ramp up production even more quickly.
     
  25. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    I'm gonna just pass on this one.
     

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