California Gubernatorial recall election - results thread

I wonder if they paid attention to how long it took California to count all of the votes in 2020 while they were claiming that the length of time in the few states that the conspiracy mongers were targeting, such as Georgia and Arizona, indicated fraud. Obviously if long counting times were due to fraud, then a "safe" state like California would have no need for such fraud and could get done counting very quickly. Instead, as one would expect for such a populous state, counting took longer in California than in a lot of other states.

Bottom line, people's ignorance of how the electoral system actually functions is being exploited by these grifters, and they are giving their money to that fat orange liar over this issue, and he is simply using that money to enrich himself and pay off his debts.

 

That's my point. All of this is legal and above board and people with no concept of how the process works label it "fraud" because of Orange Jesus. It makes no sense that none of them have even had an inkling of doubt about his veracity although he has NOT ponied up anything close to fraud. It's pathetic. Then again, we are talking about people that send money to a billionaire and didn't know there are other types of doctors besides medical ones. <eye roll>

 

I think the homeless must be on the Dixie. Didn't see any around the lake.

 

Also, their procedures are very clearly listed on their website and they prove absolute transparency as to how many outstanding ballots are yet to be counted, also the ballots they have disqualified (illegible, signature missing, etc).

No other state provides this month depth of nitty-gritty detail, down to the county level, and then at the county level, they also provide it by precinct level.

It's a good, solid system.

 

Update, 2021-09-017, circa 08:00 UTC +1, essentially two days after the election on Tuesday on the West Coast of the USA:



With 100% of all precints in California having partially reported, there have been 9,527,499 ballots counted to date and the margin for Newsom having beaten the recall is: +27.4%, a blowout margin. This margin is LESS than the election night margin, but not by far (it was +30 when I last reported).

Now, what's still out? Well, here:



According to the county reporting, 2,918,010 ballots are yet to be analysed and counted or discarded. I write it that way because every cycle, a small amount of ballots will be disqualified for various reasons (no signature, adress doesn't match up, illegible or didn't pick either yes or no in this case), but assuming that all of these ballots were to be counted, then that would bring us to 12,445,409 total votes cast and would also then mean that as of now, 23.44% of all ballots are yet to be counted.

Since you can see from the electoral map that Gavin Newsom swept every single populous county in the state and then picked up some very, very ruby red counties in central and west California, it is unlikely that this margin will shrink much more at all.

Proof of this:

San Diego County (301,250 ballots outstanding)
Los Angeles County (255,000 ballots outstanding)
Alameda County (218,875 ballots outstanding)
Orange County (191,427 ballots outstanding)
Sacramento (182,052 ballots outstanding)
Riverside (180,000 ballots outstanding)
San Bernardino (155,000 ballots outstanding)
Contra Costa (100,000 ballots outstanding)

Of the 2.9 million ballots outstanding, 1.4 million of the are in the top 8 counties, all with more than 100,000 outstanding ballots.

Now, look at the current electoral stats for those counties:


San Diego County: NO 58.6% / YES 41.4%, NO +17.2% - San Diego used to be a very, very Republican county, to note.
Los Angeles County: NO 70.8% / YES 29.2%, NO +51.6%
Alameda County: NO 82.4% / YES 17.6%, NO +64.8%
Orange County: NO 52.4% / YES 47.6%, NO +4.8% - - San Diego used to be a very, very Republican county, to note, it was the heart of Reagan Country.
Sacramento County: NO 64.0% / YES 36.0%, NO +28.0%
Riverside County: NO 51.7% / YES 48.3%, NO +3.4%
San Bernardino County: NO 51.8% / YES 48.2%, NO +3.6% - San Bernardino used to be a very, very Republican county, to note.
Contra Costa County: NO 73.1% / YES 26.9%, NO +46.2%

You can assume that a number of Republican ballots, presumably "YES" votes are yet to be counted, but according the the SOS, a huge number of Democrats and Independents ALSO voted directly on election day, thereby blunting the theory that when the entire election day vote is in, this would flip the thing. It certainly will not.


And to put this into context: a +27.4% margin in favor of Gavin Newsom is larger than any presidential national popular vote margin in all of our history (Warren Gamaliel Harding won in 1920 by +26.3%, our record-holder). This was a massive blowout and not just a run-of-the-mill landslide.

In one week from today, I will update these stats.

-Stat

 

California has been blue since the 80's so I'm not surprised at the results.

 

What did they expect? They were trying to unseat Newsom for winning the election but elections don't work that way.

 

I believe you mean since 1992.

Reagan won CA in both 1980 and 1984. Bush Sr. won CA in 1988.

 

Well, the people have spoken.

 

“The voters have spoken, the bastards!” Mo Udall, 1976.

 

They had no "front man" presenting
an alternative.
The successful Recall of Davis had
THE ARNOLD
Well enough to be associated with

​

The Arnold was that well known regardless of politik.
And was the reason for the success of the Davis recall.

Too bad we didn't have at least a Matt Damon.

 

Newsom smashed Elder by 34 points. He did better than the first election.

Anyone who thinks Elder had a remote chance of winning is dreaming. Newsom is very popular and dems outnumber repubs 2:1, and the vote proved it.

Now, I have my criticism of Newsom, he's a tad too woke for my blood, but compared to your average republican these days, no way.

 

We have our King ... ´

​

 

I like Larry Elder, but I noticed he spent more time doing Relief Factor commercials than he did campaigning. I think he knew he had no chance of winning in CA.

 

Update 2021-09-023.

Last Friday, the results of the recall election stood at: NO 63.7% / YES 36.3%, margin = NO +27.4%

And as of now:



NO 62.7% / YES 37.3%, margin = NO +25.4%, margin shift of 2 points since last week.

Last week, a total of 9,527,499 ballots had counted to date. That total has now risen to: 11,818,165

Looking at the outstanding ballots to be counted and confirmed, last week, there were 2,918,010 ballots still out. And now:



There are now only 1,154,514 ballots left to process. That's 39.5% of the total of unprocessed ballots from last week, so 60.5% were processed in the last 6 days.

If all of the outstanding ballots are deemed legitimate and none are cast aside, then we will end up with a total of 12,972,679, or just shy of 13 million votes having been case in this recall election. Last week, the end projection based on the outstanding ballots was: 12,445,409, about one-half million less than now. That can also only mean that Los Angeles County is not the only county that ended up with more mail-in ballots to report as unprocessed. I am writing this because this is all very normal and part of the process and has been this way for over 2 decades in California, which, I will say once again, has one of the most rigorous verification systems in all of the USA. This also means that only 8.9% of all ballots have yet to be processed, 91.1% are in and done.

Note the change in the Los Angeles numbers: from 255,000 vote-by-mail UP to 400,000, because California allows up to one day after the election to allow ballots that were indeed sent on election day (on time) and still at the post office to get in. The ballots still have to be postmarked with the date of the election, so there is no way to add votes after the election is over with.

With that in mind, Gavin's blowout win is likely to remain at about +25%, a huge win. And most notably, a number of red counties that voted against him in the 2018 gubernatorial voted to keep him in office in the recall election.

 

The great state of California released the final canvass of the special recall election, you can download the .pdf here:

Statement of Summary of Vote (ca.gov)



Do not recall by +23.8% (+24%), a blowout margin. So, between my last posting from September 23rd and now, Newsom lost just 1% on margin from that date, which means that 0.5% more votes were for "recall" than anticipated.

All said and told, 12,838,565 valid ballots were counted. In posting #65 I wrote that if all of the outstanding ballots left to count were to be considered valid, then the total would have been 12,972,679 total ballots, which can only mean that along the way, either 134,114 ballots (1% of all ballots at least listed as cast within the system) cast were deemed invalid or some math mistakes were made along the way. A 1% throwaway rate is a very, very conservative throwaway rate. I've been elections where up to 6% of ballots cast were deemed invalid (write in for: Mickey Mouse or some such **** like that).

So, this thing now officially done and "ad acta".

-Stat

They are not all represented in the screenshot, but if you download the .pdf, you will count that there were 53 gubernatorial replacement candidates.