US/NATO rule out halt to expansion,reject Russia demands.

Invading a NATO country is leagues away from invading a nothing country like Ukraine. I just don't see Putin doing that.

 

If he thinks NATO is a paper tiger who won't defend themselves, he won't be afraid to invade them.

If he sees that NATO is ready and able to defend themselves, he'll keep his distance.

He's like any bully. He'll do whatever he thinks he can get away with.

 

Well I'm pretty safe predicting no Russian invasion of NATO.

 

Probably. But that will be because NATO will take steps to deter that invasion.

 

Yes.

It must really frustrate you that Putin will not be permitted to invade the EU.

 

No...it's not insane bravado....you honestly think the French/British who possess nukes will let the Russkis waltz right in....you're a special kind of delusional.

 

Actually the really did, just never enough of them.

 

Just a bit BRUTE -Thugish and Bloody in the Mindset, - don't CHaaa THINK ?
............... Say? -. YOU wouldn't be an American LEO - would Jaaaa ?
..................................
........................... "Never Enough Of Them" - US DRONE Strike
.................................
...

 

A nuclear exchange would stop supply lines to cities for longer than a week. No city in the US has more than a week's worth of food on hand at any one time.
You don't need direct casualties, all the irradiated areas would stop supply chains and people would starve and then riot.

Nuclear war follows MAD theory for a reason.

 

Imagine you are an average suburban person in a nuclear war. Even if someone nukes your
city chances are you will be fine in the sense of avoiding the blast (but... some cities will be
targetted in a grid fashion with many nukes, but I digress.)
The real issue is your power will go off. There goes your 'fridge, and your water, and your
lighting. Radioactive material, driven upwards into the mushroom cloud will fall downwind
somewhere, and rain will help. But radiation isn't the problem - starvation is. It's something
we have no experience with. And that's terrifying.
Could easily happen between India and Pakistan.

 

I think we killed enough for victory. South Vietnam collapsed because leftist antiwar politicians cut off their aid for no reason. Afghanistan collapsed because leftist antiwar politicians pulled us out of the country for no reason.

 

Maybe they should have thought about the consequences before they murdered all those innocent Americans in the World Trade Center.

 

Those FIVE Babies - should have thought of the Consequences
......................................................................... YOU said That ! ?

 

Those FIVE Babies - should have thought of the Consequences
................................................................ YOU pretty well said That !
................................................... do they look like 911 murderers to YOU ?

What makes YOU think these people killed on 911
YOU are just trying to Justify a Revenge Blood Lust
and YOU don't care who YOU Kill - ( see above )

 

Had there been no 9/11, there would be no dronestrikes.

Kind of like, had there been no Pearl Harbor, there would have been no Hiroshima/Nagasaki.

Same principle.

 

Just not enough to win the war. And isn't that the point of going to war?

 

Agree for part .. but you understand the radiation issue. If it was like Nagasaki . a one or two off .. the people can move away from the blast and subsequent contamination zone. In the case of a full on attack .. you can't. The whole nation is contaminated .. three is no where to go.

You have to stay inside for ~ a month .. and while starvation is a problem - there is no uncontaminated drinking water sans what you have in bottles in the house. For the millions exiting the blast areas .. where do they go .. .. to the next blast area ? .. and they have to find shelter fast .. as ouside is toxic. The food and water you might have .. everyone else wants .. and will do anything to get it .. is a zombie apocalypse comming to our door soon .. better have a gun .. the fight over scarce resources is not going to be pretty..

 

I have always believed as you said. But in reading my military guys write it's not quite like that.
For starters the 'nuclear winter' is debunked.
And radioactive material can be disposed of by falling downwind.
And cities shouldn't be the primary target - your aim in attacking, ie Russia, is to get THEIR nukes
and misc military assetts - not to mass kill non-combatants. I understand that SOME cities could
be targeted, grid style, with multiple warheads - but I imagine these would be strategic assetts or
symbols of your enemy, ie Moscow, Washington.
The Islamic bomb, when it becomes more common (thanks to Russia for this BTW, ie supporting
Iran's nuke program) might be the opposite of what I said, going to mass murder rather than military
targets. A billion Muslims would easily die should they do this.

 

Not talking nuclear winter here.. just the fallout "Downwind" - as you put it. The problem is that "Downwind .. covers most of the continental US.

Go look at a nuclear radiation map-calculator .. https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/ ... Set off a few bombs and see what the rad's are in the contamination zone "Downwind" .. in that area .. being outside will expose you to a nasty level of radiation .. and you have to wait 3 weeks to a month for levels to get down to "relatively safe"

I use Castle Bravo for calculations .. ground burst - contaminated 7000 square miles of Ocean .. Fishermen 90 miles "downwind" covered with ash .. got radiation sickness - one died.

Now divide into continental US .. gives you ~ 400 nukes of that fallout area .. the entire US is covered. Now realistically .. about half that would do it. 200 strikes .. and good luck finding an area that is safe .. Nevada desert or outback in Wyoming .. where no one lives.. and how would you get there .. after a nuclear strike .. No Transportation .. no gas if your car electronics are not fried .. no road if you manage all that .. and how would you even know where to go .. no communication - power - and so on .. drive into some 100 meter deep hole

Now the above contamination is based on a 5 megaton nuke .. but contamination and fallout zone are not linear related.. a 0.2 megaton is going to give contamination of say 5000 sq miles... you can calculate rough numbers from the site above.

Thing is .. in a full out attack .. they are gong to drop 1000 bombs .. its all contaminated mate.. there is nowhere to go .. gotta hunker down where you are for 20-30 days .. before it is even safe to go ourside .. how much water you got on hand ? .. think you can go 30 days ? .. and what about your neighbor .. better hope they have the same cause they are coming for yours if they don't .. as is the zombie apocalypse who could not hunker down .. had to flee the blast zone .. all looking for a place to stay .. initially .. as they need not just shelter .. but water .. and food .. in a day or two many have already run out .. have to go out from the school you found shelter in with hundreds of other people .. Now what you going to do .. where you gonna get food/water .. and you have 20 days to go .. no help coming .. no power.. no communication

Floor is yours .. what you going to do if you are one of the 500 people who packed into some school .. managed to make it there from the blast zone. Day 2 .. no water .. no food. What are you going to do ? Hope you don't live north and its winter time ..

Do what will you ? .. and what do you suppose everyone else is going to do .. Tell me.

 

That is incorrect. It is not debunked in any way whatsoever. The scientific consensus is that a nuclear winter can last at least ten years. The first few years will be the worst though.

Not terribly useful considering that downwind includes Minneapolis, Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, Washington DC, and everything in between all those cities.

Enemy military is a desirable target, but industrial centers will also be targets if the war gets bad enough.

If the war is bad enough, all large industrial centers will be targeted.

 

Three years minimum.

Zirconium 95 (64 day half life) gives off a nasty gamma ray when it decays. And it decays into niobium 95 (35 day half life), which also gives off a nasty gamma ray when it decays.

You and I have a much different concept of relatively safe.

 

Every single thing I have ever posted has been true.

 

No, that's called embracing reality.

The way of the warrior is death.

 

Its a problem of threats vs incentives. The reason so many former Eastern Block States are lining up for membership of NATO and the EU etc instead of maintaining close ties with Moscow is that all Russia can and is offering is threats i.e. Don't join NATO or we'll invade. The economic political and social incentives Russia can offer these states are next to nothing compared to the potential advantages that would accrue over time from joining Western economic and security organizations.

Meanwhile the West isn't issuing threats to invade anyone, hell its not even offering any real incentives. Those incentives are just 'there', on display for potential members to see, like bystanders looking at a store display. SO the only practical way the West could possibly 'disincentivize' other nations from applying for membership in its organizations would be to deliberately set out to become both poorer than Russia (thereby offering few potential benefits to applicants) while also becoming more autocratic and potentially aggressive than Russia currently is! (Fat chance of that.)

Meanwhile Putin's current foreign policy aggressive stance basically pushes the nations he's concerned westwards. While the West just watches potential new treaty members bang on the door while looking Eastwards over their shoulders.

 

I really don't care what the French/British will do.