Has the Global Temperature Trend Turned to Cooling?

Discussion in 'Environment & Conservation' started by Jack Hays, May 5, 2022.

  1. Melb_muser

    Melb_muser Well-Known Member Donor

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    To differing degrees...
     
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  2. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Not even second.
    Since the 1980s, each decade has been warmer than the previous one, said WMO and “this is expected to continue.” The warmest seven years have all been since 2015; the top three being 2016, 2019 and 2020. An exceptionally strong El Niño event occurred in 2016, which contributed to record global average warming.Jan 19, 2022

    2021 joins top 7 warmest years on record: WMO | | UN News
     
  3. Melb_muser

    Melb_muser Well-Known Member Donor

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    From your own article: "Although average global temperatures were temporarily cooled by the 2020-2022 La Niña events, 2021 was still one of the seven warmest years on record, according to six leading international datasets consolidated by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)."

    And NASA says it's tied. Either way, I don't see how you can conclude what you have.
     
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  4. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Every year since 2016 has been cooler than 2016.
    UAH Global Temperature Update for April, 2022: +0.26 deg. C
    May 2nd, 2022
    The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for April, 2022 was +0.26 deg. C, up from the March, 2022 value of +0.15 deg. C.[​IMG]
     
  5. Melb_muser

    Melb_muser Well-Known Member Donor

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    You seem to want to see one thing, and only one thing.

    And in that process ignore the subtle nuance that 2020 was either the warmest, equal warmest, or close second warmest year on record (depending on who you ask). This is despite La Niña, which has a cooling effect.
     
    Last edited: May 7, 2022
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  6. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    All of which merits: So what?
    2020 hit its high as a residual effect from the 2019 El Nino. The trend is downward, and 2022 will assuredly continue that.
     
  7. Bowerbird

    Bowerbird Well-Known Member

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    Classic classic cherry pick

    upload_2022-5-8_2-37-47.gif

    Really Jack! You are too smart for this sort of bullshit sleight of hand. I mean this particular hoary hairy old bit of twaddle has been trying to be sold since the late 1990s - hence the “escalator” graphic showing the larger picture

    BTW you might want to look up more of the Authors failed claims here

    https://skepticalscience.com/David_Archibald_arg.htm
     
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  8. Melb_muser

    Melb_muser Well-Known Member Donor

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    Wouldn't that be fantastic news. It all just goes away and we can get back to burning car tyres again.
     
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  9. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Please discuss the data if you intend to participate. Non-substantive attacks will be ignored.
     
  10. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    It doesn't have to go away. It was never here.
    Climate debate at the Cambridge Union - a 10 minute summary of the main problems with the standard alarmist polemic
    ". . . In Paris and Copenhagen the leaders of the world said that we should make sure that the total global warming will be less than 2°C. It will be less than 2°C even if we do nothing. . . . "
     
  11. mamooth

    mamooth Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    UAH is regarded as a joke. It is not a temperature measurement. It's a model with a bunch of fudge factors, based on microwave emissions of the mid-troposphere. Deliberately using bad data when good data is available is a sign that the one doing so is presenting pseudoscience. It's what you're doing.

    Needless to say, much better data is available, the actual surface temperature measurements, measured with these newfangled devices called "thermometers".

    [​IMG]

    There's no cooling trend there, just a pause of a few years to reflect the ongoing La Nina.
     
    Last edited: May 10, 2022
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  12. Sunsettommy

    Sunsettommy Well-Known Member

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    You post a chart from 1880 that shows warming but there is a COOLING since 2016 which is shown on ALL temperature data bases included:

    [​IMG]

    LINK

    =======

    Next time try being honest and don't make silly attacks on UAH data.
     
  13. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Sure. That's why UAH has a continuing contract with NOAA/NASA. And your graph makes my point.
     
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  14. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Excellent graphs in this link.
    The Recent Decline
    Willis Eschenbach
    Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Over in the Tweeterverse I saw that someone said: NASA GISSTEMP Global Mean went above 1.5C for 2 months in 2016. Hmmm, sez I ……

    ". . . Clearly, there has been a sea-change in the surface temperature changes in the 21st century. For most of the last half of the 20th century, temperatures were rising on the order of 0.15°C per decade. But this century, for a good part of the period from 2000 to the end of 2014, the rate of rise of most of the datasets was much less than that.

    And in all seven of the datasets, since the breakpoint before the 2015/16 El Nino, the temperatures have either been level or dropping …"
     
  15. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Cooling is getting noticed.
    A “Weakening Warming Trend Of The Last 40 Years Is Apparent”, Says German Expert
    By P Gosselin on 11. May 2022

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    Fritz Vahrenholt: The transition to green energies and the missing warming
    By Kalte Sonne
    Dear ladies and gentlemen,

    During the energy crisis that has become visible in Germany and Europe over the past few months, things have gotten quieter about the supposedly imminent climate emergency. On the one hand, energy prices and security of supply have pushed the climate issue into the background. On the other hand, a weakening of the warming trend of the last 40 years is apparent. . . .

    The temperature curve of the satellite-based measurements of the University of Alabama UAH has been oscillating between -0.2 and 0.4 degrees for 20 years and seems to have remained stable since 2015, as shown in the next graph in the enlargement. (Source: woodfortrees). The mean value is drawn in green- it shows a slightly decreasing trend since 2015. Why hasn’t this been reported?

    [​IMG]
     
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  16. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    The data record will determine the outcome of the climate debate.
    Radiosonde Temps Show Northern Hemisphere, Tropical Warming Has Mostly Paused Since 1998
    By Kenneth Richard on 16. May 2022

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    A new study indicates nearly all the Northern Hemisphere and Tropical warming in the last 40 years occurred by the late 1990s.
    CO2 has risen by about 50 ppm since 1998 (367 to 418 ppm).

    Interestingly, upper-air measurements of temperature from balloon-borne sensor radiosonde data, shown below in the image from a new study (Madonna et al., 2022), suggest there was more warming from the early 1980s to late 1990s – when CO2 only rose about 25 ppm (341 to 367 ppm) – than there has been this century.

    Radiosonde measurements appear to depict mostly flat temperatures trends since 1998 in both the Northern Hemisphere (25°N to 70°N) and tropics (25°S to 25°N).[​IMG]

    Image Source: Madonna et al., 2022
    . . . .
     
  17. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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  18. Bowerbird

    Bowerbird Well-Known Member

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    upload_2022-5-21_2-6-26.jpeg

    Taking a little itty bitty bit of the climate graph and claiming victory

    Who do you think you are fooling because no one is falling for that twaddle
     
  19. Bowerbird

    Bowerbird Well-Known Member

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    And the rest of the planet?????
     
  20. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Also cooling.
     
  21. Sunsettommy

    Sunsettommy Well-Known Member

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    Of course it is just 6 years but it IS COOLING the last 6 years which you never disputed thus you wasted your time.

    You say I claim a victory is obviously false since I didn't say it at all.

    Trying to fool me with an irrelevant deflection?
     
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  22. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    Well, North America has been growing less humid for the last several thousand years.

    [​IMG]

    And for comparison, this is the conditions today.

    [​IMG]

    So the prediction for most like myself, is that it will get even more dry.

    However, then in around 10 kya or so, things will swing the other way. As the increased humidity from the free water that has been freed from the ice caps will make the planet more humid. Green belts planet wide will finally expand the range of dirt and forests and grasslands will spread again. But a lot of the water released in the last 10 kya is still simply trapped in the oceans, and the land has not recovered enough from the long planetary drought like conditions of an ice age to allow the massive explosion of plant life that always marks an interglacial. You know, like when palm trees grow in Alaska, and forests cover much of Northern Asia.

    Oh, and the Kalahari is not really dry. On average, it runs from 25-40% humidity. Most deserts are damned humid, even Colorado at an average of 50% humidity.

    Want to know where the driest desert on the planet is? Visit Antarctica. On that continent, the average humidity is 0%, and it sees under 2 inches (5 cm) of rain per year.

    And in reality, most of the "drought" in North America has not a damned thing to do with rainfall. It has to do with gross overpopulation. Far more people in an area that does not have the environment to sustain them all. So like locusts they are stripping all of the resources they can from the local area, and ultimately making things even worse. We are seeing that very clearly in California. Where the exploding population (under 16 million when I was born, 40 million today) has caused the water table to be pumped so low that a great many trees with deep roots that evolved to reach the deep water table are now dying. They are not dying from a natural drought, they are dying because humans are taking all of the water and they can no longer reach it.

    And no, I am not kidding. California was so attractive to the early settlers because in the Central Valley you could dig a 30 foot deep ditch and hit water. In many areas, they did not even need irrigation, there was so much in the shallow water table that it simply was not needed. Today, you have to dig down hundreds or thousands of feet to reach fresh water. Overpopulation, overpumping, in a region that has been turning from savannah and dry grasslands for over 10,000 years.

    But at least that is not compounded with your problem of being a high altitude desert.
     
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  23. ToddWB

    ToddWB Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Solar spots trends and forecast
     
  24. Mushroom

    Mushroom Well-Known Member

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    And much of this also is because of humans.

    But realize, I am not "blaming" us for this. For much of the 1900s, the campaign to stomp out forest fires was done with 100% good intentions. And I agree, stopping forest fires is a good thing.

    [​IMG]

    The "Living Symbol" of that campaign was a bear that was rescued from a fire in New Mexico in 1950. And a lot of work was done in stopping all fires as soon as they broke out. However, then you have the opposite end, and that is fire is a part of the natural cycle. They happen for many reasons, and will burn out mostly underbrush and dead trees. However, without fires the underbrush will grow thicker and thicker, and the dead trees will just continue to lie there. So when you finally do get a fire that can not be contained, it absolutely devastates the region.

    That is what California and Oregon are seeing now. Half a century of wild and unrestricted growth have created the "perfect storm", because when they stopped the fires, nobody stepped up to take care of the forests instead of nature doing it. And we even see many areas of forest vanishing, as a great many species actually require fire to spread their seeds. All over the west, lodgepole pines, redwoods, sequoia, and more are dying. We have stopped all fires in the areas they grow, which means no new ones are taking their place. So they are being forced out by plants that are not dependent upon fire to grow.

    But you can not, and should not stop all fires. Many of our most iconic trees require fire. But we can and should control it, not eradicate it. And when we do, it is up to us to take the place of nature and control the underbrush and dead trees ourselves.

    Hell, look at all the screams from Australia. That they are now covered by fires, and all the screaming and gnashing of teeth. Well, it is the exact same thing there! Their main tree is the eucalyptus. That is another interesting tree, and also adapted to existing in a fire area. One that people in the Oakland Hills of California learned the hard way in 1991. That tree was once common all over California, as it is perfectly adapted to the hot and dry summers. However, it also has a lot of oils, and when they get hot the trees literally explode. Once again, it evolved that way on purpose as that explosion then scatters the seeds, and allows even more of them to grow. Many communities in California now ban the planting of eucalyptus for that very reason.

    https://wildfiretoday.com/2014/04/2...land-hills-through-the-eyes-of-an-australian/

    I still remember that fire, as I could see the smoke from over 100 miles away. And I have seen this repeated over and over all over California. From Paradise and elsewhere. And while many still scream "global warming", notice that unconstrained undergrowth is always a major factor. But if one is really interested, watch the video in the above link. There you have people who are proactive in trying to manage the vegetation in their area, so that if another fire breaks out it will not be a repeat of 1991.

    Oakland got smart, but most of California is still stupid when it comes to stopping the spread of fires.
     
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  25. Jack Hays

    Jack Hays Well-Known Member Donor

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    Cooling doesn't get much media coverage.
    GFS Analysis Shows Zero Warming: For Every Hot-Spot On The Planet, There’s Also Been A Cold-Spot
    By P Gosselin on 22. May 2022

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    By Die kalte Sonne

    Currently much is being reported on extreme heat reaching from North Africa to Europe. In some places in Morocco and Spain, new temperature records for May have been set.

    However, it’s worth taking a look at the whole world, because in addition to regions that are clearly too warm, there are also the exact opposite. . . .
     
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