Russia is winning the economic war - and Putin is no closer to withdrawing troops

Discussion in 'Latest US & World News' started by Bill Carson, Jun 3, 2022.

  1. LangleyMan

    LangleyMan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 14, 2017
    Messages:
    44,679
    Likes Received:
    12,448
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Your economic expertise is what?
     
  2. (original)late

    (original)late Banned

    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2015
    Messages:
    8,372
    Likes Received:
    4,001
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male


    We've placed the severest sanctions in modern history, they have shortages all over the place, the economy is imploding, and he babbles...

    Btw, any economist will tell you imports are more important than exports.
     
    Thedimon and LangleyMan like this.
  3. Jeannette

    Jeannette Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2012
    Messages:
    37,994
    Likes Received:
    7,948
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Female
    Russia is not an import country, so it depends on no one. That ended with the first sanctions when Putin blocked all European goods from the Russian market. He began developing Russia's agriculture and industries so as to acquire total self sufficiency - something Russia now has. Russia now is a world in itself.

    Russia is an export nation, and the world cannot survive without Russia. This is why it is the World Economic Forum's nemesis, since it hinders their new world order which is nothing more than a precursor to a one world government under the control of certain elites. As for the ruble, it's kept deliberately low because the lower the value, the more competitive Russia's products are.

    Anyway, more and more nations are now willing to oppose Washington's bullying and blackmailing and do what they feel is in their own self interest. As for what Russians lack other than some luxuries - which the billionaires can always buy in friendly nations, are the French and Italian cheeses. Somehow, the Russians aren't able to attain the same quality.
     
    Last edited: Jun 9, 2022
    Jazz likes this.
  4. Thedimon

    Thedimon Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2018
    Messages:
    12,121
    Likes Received:
    8,714
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    A319B9D0-0548-4A45-95CE-1418C8B132CD.gif

    That country can’t even produce ball bearings. Their drones use a canon camera that can be found in any electronics store!
     
  5. cristiansoldier

    cristiansoldier Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2014
    Messages:
    4,999
    Likes Received:
    3,428
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Russian export economy is base on raw materials where there is minimal value added. Essentially you dig, grow, mine and chop your exports. You import all of your tech and quality of life items which have a high value add. You used American made Intel and AMD processors until the sanctions started and now you import a slower X86 chips from China which greatly lowers performance. The Russians are moving away from Windows based OS to another American developed open source OS in Astra Linux. Essentially you tweaked and rebranded the Linux OS for use, (not that there is anything wrong with that because that is the whole point of opensource). Statistics to the end of Dec. 2021 shows that Russian mobile phones used 72% Google android OS and 27% Apple's IOS. The number #1 selling smartphone pre-sanctions was Samsung. Your problems are far greater than not being able to make cheese as well as the French and Italians.

     
    bigfella, Monash and Thedimon like this.
  6. Jeannette

    Jeannette Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2012
    Messages:
    37,994
    Likes Received:
    7,948
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Female
    You mentioned only Russia's exports, not the products for its own domestic use such as meats, wines, milk products, and vegetables and fruits that are now grown in massive green houses. As for grains, Russia has developed seeds without using GMO's, that can grow in its cold climate and short growing season so that now it is the largest exporter in the world - beating out the US and Canada.

    As for high tech, other than all the components needed for their own military and industries, you're forgetting that the US still relies on Russian rockets for their space program. So I'm sure if Russia deemed any of those products you mentioned a dire necessity, they would produce them domestically within 3 months.

    Do you realize that Russia's precise attacks on military installations on the Polish border were not from bombs? They came from ships a thousand miles away in the Caspian and Black Sea.

    Maybe it's time people began waking up to reality?


    [​IMG]
    Some will say what they want
    and whenever they want,

    no matter how foolish they sound.

    Because they believe
    there are some around.

    Who'll take the absurd

    and thus their word,
    not knowing from where it stems.

    And thinking of course

    that we're also fools,
    and will never question them.
    - Jeannette
     
    Last edited: Jun 9, 2022
    Jazz likes this.
  7. cristiansoldier

    cristiansoldier Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2014
    Messages:
    4,999
    Likes Received:
    3,428
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I wasn't even speaking about military. I was talking about consumer products that the average Russian citizen use and depend on. Things that are related to the economy and vital for modern business. Remember this thread is about the Russian economy. The majority of people work in private sector and when things like laptops, PCs, smart phones etc... are no longer available or grossly inferior versions that impacts real people and productivity. When investment in capital is down 20% for the year that impacts business and ultimately people. When inflation is at 17.5% that impacts consumers and sellers. When the economy is forecast to shrink 8-12% that impacts everyone. Unemployment is on the raise and will only get worst as the production decreases. Why are you are cheering a high or stable Ruble? If you truly do not rely on imports from the rest of the world and Russia is self contained the best outcome would be to have a low Ruble. A low Ruble means higher cost of imports and since according to you Russia does not rely on what does it matter. A lower Ruble would mean greater demand for Russian exports and that is what you said is important. If Russia is truly self dependent you would benefit from a low Ruble. Why do you think China artificially kept the Chinese Yuan down for all those years. They wanted increase demand for Chinese goods and lower demand domestically for international goods.

    If you want to brag about the ability to produce grain and foods that is fine but that is what civilizations were worrying about 10,000 years ago. Modern business and finance has moved on from growing and digging in the dirt. It still serves a vital purpose but most first world countries are no longer worried about just providing enough food for the populace. Wealth and power is generated through innovation and creativity. Deprived your people of the ability to compete in a modern world and you will remain a backward country. Russia relies of the state driven innovation. That is why all you have to talk about is the military. You can be like a bigger version of North Korea.
     
  8. Jeannette

    Jeannette Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2012
    Messages:
    37,994
    Likes Received:
    7,948
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Female
    Russia does keep the ruble down so they can keep their competitive edge. Right now Vladimir Putin raised the minimum wage 10% throughout the Federation. So much for the sanctions affecting Russia.

    Anyway how can a country be a high tech country like Russia and at the same time not be innovative. You're not making any sense?

    Besides how do you know if Russia is a backwards country or not? Have you been there or are you listening to our propaganda networks? From what I've seen in pictures, the country villages are no different than many on our own back roads - and I'm not talking about the deep south, I'm talking about areas around the NYC metropolis.

    As for the people in the city, they have a different lifestyle. They work during the week in the city and live in small nondescript apartments, and on the weekend they head to their country dacha - which they probably feel is their real home. So let's not judge others by our own standards.
     
    Jazz likes this.
  9. cristiansoldier

    cristiansoldier Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2014
    Messages:
    4,999
    Likes Received:
    3,428
    Trophy Points:
    113
    So now that we agree that the value of the Ruble can be manipulated by simple short term government policies you would probably agree that better measure of the health of the Russian economy would be to look at figures like GDP, capital investment, unemployment and inflation. All of those measures I mentioned are moving in a negative direction. They are also not fake news which so many pro-Russian advocates love to make because these estimates are forecast by the Russian Economic Ministry. Given that, how do we have a thread that Russia is winning the economic war. Is this what a winning economy looks like to you? I know you want to be a loyal pro Russian cheerleader but the health of the economy is hard to hide. A 20% decrease in capital investments means the economy is not moving forward. People have no faith in the economy so they do not want to invest in it. When the GDP shrinks 8% that means the close to 1/10 of the production has evaporated. That means less jobs and opportunity for the people. Inflation rates at 17.5% mean people's wealth and savings have been greatly impacted unless they have investments in capital that is also rising.

    BUT according to this thread let's rejoice because the Ruble is high. As you said Russia has closed off imports so the people will not reap the benefits of the high Ruble by getting international goods cheaper. Instead you make your exports most expensive which further decreases demand. Does that strategy make sense to you when the economy is expected to shrink? Let make our stuff more expensive so they will buy from someone else.
     
    Sallyally and bigfella like this.
  10. Bill Carson

    Bill Carson Banned

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2021
    Messages:
    6,125
    Likes Received:
    4,833
    Trophy Points:
    113
    :bored:

    Sad.

    Sad that you believe the bullshit fed to you by the fake news media and government overlords.

    And the best part "moved on from growing and digging in the dirt". I lol'd. City boy, huh?
     
  11. cristiansoldier

    cristiansoldier Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2014
    Messages:
    4,999
    Likes Received:
    3,428
    Trophy Points:
    113
    The information I presented came was supposed to come from the Russian Economic Ministry. I have asked you this in the past but you refuse to comment. Why do you think the value of the Ruble is a better measure of economic performance than GDP, capital investment, inflation, unemployment etc...

    I will make this simple for you since you believe the information presented is fake news. What is YOUR prediction for the 2022 GDP? What do you expect the growth to be if everyone else is lying. Are you expecting 6, 7 percent growth? What do you think the inflation rate in Russia will be in 2022? 3 or 4%? What are the awesome numbers of a country that is winning the economic war? I will leave it to you to set the forecast since everyone else is fake news.
     
    bigfella and Monash like this.
  12. Monash

    Monash Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 12, 2019
    Messages:
    4,516
    Likes Received:
    3,138
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    You won't get an answer from good old 'Bill'.

    Every time he and the other Putin (sorry I believe he now refers to himslef as 'Putin the Great') apologists get called out with hard data on the war or Russia in general and get questioned about it they just go silent for a few posts, then just come back with more propaganda. As if the question et al had never been asked or the data presented.
     
    bigfella and cristiansoldier like this.
  13. Bill Carson

    Bill Carson Banned

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2021
    Messages:
    6,125
    Likes Received:
    4,833
    Trophy Points:
    113
    First off, it's a comparison of economies....not a fixation on Russia. The strength of a nation's currency....when compared to others...especially the Euro/Dollar/Pound....is a damn good indicator of who's economy is in a better position. It's almost laughable...the first yap yap out of anyone's mouth in the West is 'GDP'. Do you even know how GDP is calculated? I guess not. Borrowing money aka adding debt increases GDP on the bottom line. In other words, countries with a lot of debt and countries continually in debt have exactly that much more GDP than countries that don't borrow money they don't have (or don't need). When you get through scratching your head/google searches, etc., you may be surprised to know that Russia, with all its faults, is the most soundly run country as far as government spending/debt...of all major economies.

    And now the West's chickens are coming home to roost.

    You know what's driving the ruble? Simple supply and demand. The West had it good...they could shovel their Euros/Dollars etc off on Russia for oil, gas and other commodities. Not any more. And this is the tell. The dollar's dominance has just **** the bed and the sanctions are the cause. It's not just Russia, it's all those other countries the West constantly pisses on. Now they know if they hold dollars/euros/pounds, they are subject to illegal seizure from those so-called due process, rule of law democracies.

    Forecast? Better than the West, and that's a given. When :icon_shithappens: :icon_shithitsthefan hits the fan, you don't want to be the country with a lot of debt and no way of raising interest rates without crashing your economy. Sharpen your pencil and run the numbers. Even 5% would result in a total collapse.
     
    Jazz likes this.
  14. cristiansoldier

    cristiansoldier Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2014
    Messages:
    4,999
    Likes Received:
    3,428
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Sure is easy to call everything fake news including the forecast from the Russian Economic Ministry but when it was your turn to put it on the line the best you can do is better than the west. You are the Russian expert. What will be there growth rate this year? What will be their inflation level? What will be their unemployment? In your world it must be better than previous years because Russia is doing so awesome. How much increase will there be in capital expenditure in Russia this year? Because if the Russian economy is on fire everyone is going to want to invest in it.

    Other source has put their numbers and reputation on the line why not you? Paint your rosy picture for the Russian economy for 2022 and then in 7 months we will look back to see who is right.
     
    bigfella likes this.
  15. Monash

    Monash Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 12, 2019
    Messages:
    4,516
    Likes Received:
    3,138
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    I stand corrected. He did reply! Of course he didn't actually answer your question you asked about his prediction for Russia's GDP but you cant have everything. He obviously fails to understand (or simply chooses to ignore) the implications of any contraction in GDP growth will mean. Especially as the IIF currently predicts a contraction in imports by Russia this year of 28%, a contraction in exports of 25% and reduction in domestic plant, equipment and fixed capital investment of 25%. On top of which inflation is already what? 18%?
     
    bigfella and cristiansoldier like this.
  16. cristiansoldier

    cristiansoldier Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2014
    Messages:
    4,999
    Likes Received:
    3,428
    Trophy Points:
    113
    The question was fairly straight forward. I showed him forecast from the Russian Economic Ministry. Many economic forecast I have seen have it much worst like the IIF research you mentioned. Some are predicting a 12% contraction of GDP and I saw extremes as high as 15-18%. It is hard to imagine this can be happening to an economy and some are playing it off as some type of economic boon.
     
    bigfella likes this.
  17. Bill Carson

    Bill Carson Banned

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2021
    Messages:
    6,125
    Likes Received:
    4,833
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I'm not too worried about you and what you think. It doesn't matter if I laid it out in stone for you, you'd come up with some bullshit. I've put my money where my mouth is, that's all you need to know. I did just get back from there 3 weeks ago, so I've seen the situation first hand.
     
    Jazz likes this.
  18. LiveUninhibited

    LiveUninhibited Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 26, 2008
    Messages:
    9,424
    Likes Received:
    2,857
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Whatever. Wouldn't want to do business with mass murderers anyway. They can pretend it doesn't hurt all they want. They can ask North Korea for advice on being a pariah and China's bitch.

    As for Ukraine, already has gone better for them than my wildest dreams, well except that one where Putin found his soul and stopped trying to destroy them.
     
    Last edited: Jun 10, 2022
    Bowerbird likes this.
  19. Monash

    Monash Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 12, 2019
    Messages:
    4,516
    Likes Received:
    3,138
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    You put your money where your mouth is? Has Russia actually printed enough rubles to fill a space that big?
     
    Thedimon and Bowerbird like this.
  20. Thedimon

    Thedimon Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2018
    Messages:
    12,121
    Likes Received:
    8,714
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    I’ve heard Sberbank canceled it’s dividend. :D
     
  21. Bill Carson

    Bill Carson Banned

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2021
    Messages:
    6,125
    Likes Received:
    4,833
    Trophy Points:
    113
    The DOW is down $770 this morning as inflation hits a 40 year high. Winning you say???? :bored:
     
  22. Bill Carson

    Bill Carson Banned

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2021
    Messages:
    6,125
    Likes Received:
    4,833
    Trophy Points:
    113
    The DOW is down $770 this morning as inflation hits a 40 year high. Winning you say???? :bored:
     
    Jazz likes this.
  23. Thedimon

    Thedimon Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2018
    Messages:
    12,121
    Likes Received:
    8,714
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Dow didn’t drop $770, it dropped 770 points. Nobody who trades with “millions” would write it that way.
    And an 800 point drop is just -2%, which is a solid red day, but not a disaster. :bored: A healthy market should have a -2% day at least once every couple of weeks.
    Having said that, I stopped trading a while ago for the time being until the market calms down. I’d advise anyone who trades to wait till supply chains for food and energy are rebuilt, as sanctions cut Russia out as a supplier and importers need to find alternative suppliers. Russian energy will eventually be replaced by opec (greed is greed) and food availability can be changed by reconfiguring crops - for example the US can stop subsidizing corn and instead subsidize wheat, or change their ratio. Most importantly, the world can function just fine even if Russia was turned into an ocean. Remember - russian economy is just 2% of global. We just need to rebuild our chains, which might take a year or two.
    We’ll be fine. 8)
     
    Jazz likes this.
  24. Nemesis

    Nemesis Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 29, 2012
    Messages:
    16,128
    Likes Received:
    8,848
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Oh no! A country with an economy the size of Italy's economy is fake "winning"!
     
  25. Bill Carson

    Bill Carson Banned

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2021
    Messages:
    6,125
    Likes Received:
    4,833
    Trophy Points:
    113

Share This Page