Russia Declares War on Ukraine<<MOD WARNING>>

Justice is coming.
Russia could soon exhaust its combat capabilities
Small shifts in territorial control matter less than the overall balance of forces, which analysts say could shift back in favor of Ukraine in the coming months.
By Liz Sly

The Russian military will soon exhaust its combat capabilities and be forced to bring its offensive in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region to a grinding halt, according to Western intelligence predictions and military experts.

“There will come a time when the tiny advances Russia is making become unsustainable in light of the costs and they will need a significant pause to regenerate capability,” said a senior Western official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive issue. . . .

But conditions for Ukrainian troops are only likely to improve as more sophisticated Western weapons arrive, while those of Russian forces can be expected to deteriorate as they dig deeper into their stocks of old, outdated equipment, said retired Gen. Ben Hodges, a former commander of U.S. forces in Europe who is now with the Center for European Policy Analysis. At some point in the coming months, the Ukrainians will have received enough Western weaponry that it is likely they will be able to go on the counteroffensive and reverse the tide of the war, he said.

“I remain very optimistic that Ukraine is going to win, and that by the end of this year Russia will be driven back to the Feb. 24 line,” he said, referring to the boundaries of Russian-occupied areas in Crimea and Donbas captured during fighting in 2014 and 2015. “Right now it sucks to be on the receiving end of all this Russian artillery. But my assessment is that things are going to be trending in favor of the Ukrainians in the next few weeks.”. . . .

 

^^^ Complete and utter bullshit. But thanks for starting my day of with a laugh.

 

Says the guy who posts Russian propaganda.

 

Oops!

World
Business Insider
Video appears to show the dramatic moment a Russian missile boomerangs and plunges to earth

 

Jack, I suggest you take a few minutes and read this article. It is from the Royal United Service Institute, a UK think tank that has been around since 1831.

The Return of Industrial Warfare

The winner in a prolonged war between two near-peer powers is still based on which side has the strongest industrial base. A country must either have the manufacturing capacity to build massive quantities of ammunition or have other manufacturing industries that can be rapidly converted to ammunition production. Unfortunately, the West no longer seems to have either.

Presently, the US is decreasing its artillery ammunition stockpiles. In 2020, artillery ammunition purchases decreased by 36% to $425 million. In 2022, the plan is to reduce expenditure on 155mm artillery rounds to $174 million. This is equivalent to 75,357 M795 basic ‘dumb’ rounds for regular artillery, 1,400 XM1113 rounds for the M777, and 1,046 XM1113 rounds for Extended Round Artillery Cannons. Finally, there are $75 million dedicated for Excalibur precision-guided munitions that costs $176K per round, thus totaling 426 rounds. In short, US annual artillery production would at best only last for 10 days to two weeks of combat in Ukraine. If the initial estimate of Russian shells fired is over by 50%, it would only extend the artillery supplied for three weeks.

The US is not the only country facing this challenge. In a recent war game involving US, UK and French forces, UK forces exhausted national stockpiles of critical ammunition after eight days.

Unfortunately, this is not only the case with artillery. Anti-tank Javelins and air-defence Stingers are in the same boat. The US shipped 7,000 Javelin missiles to Ukraine – roughly one-third of its stockpile – with more shipments to come. Lockheed Martin produces about 2,100 missiles a year, though this number might ramp up to 4,000 in a few years. Ukraine claims to use 500 Javelin missiles every day.

The expenditure of cruise missiles and theatre ballistic missiles is just as massive. The Russians have fired between 1,100 and 2,100 missiles. The US currently purchases 110 PRISM, 500 JASSM and 60 Tomahawk cruise missiles annually, meaning that in three months of combat, Russia has burned through four times the US annual missile production. The Russian rate of production can only be estimated. Russia started missile production in 2015 in limited initial runs, and even in 2016 the production runs were estimated at 47 missiles. This means that it had only five to six years of full-scale production.

The initial stockpile in February 2022 is unknown, but considering expenditures and the requirement to hold substantial stockpiles back in case of war with NATO, it is unlikely that the Russians are worried. In fact, they seem to have enough to expend operational-level cruise missiles on tactical targets. The assumption that there are 4,000 cruise and ballistic missiles in the Russian inventory is not unreasonable. This production will probably increase despite Western sanctions. In April, ODK Saturn, which makes Kalibr missile motors, announced an additional 500 job openings.

https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/return-industrial-warfare

You're welcome.

 

Just more Russian propaganda.
The idea that Russia will outproduce the West is ludicrous.

 

Video link TWITTER

 

Oh, for sure the ROYAL UNITED SERVICES INSTITUTE produces Russian propaganda LOL

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) is an independent think tank engaged in cutting-edge defence and security research.

A unique institution, founded in 1831 by the Duke of Wellington, RUSI embodies nearly two centuries of forward thinking, free discussion, and careful reflection on defence and security matters.

RUSI is a British institution but operates with an international perspective. Offices in Nairobi and Brussels reinforce our global reach. We have amassed over the years an outstanding reputation for quality and objectivity. Our heritage, location at the heart of Whitehall, together with our range of contacts both inside and outside government, but always strictly independent of it, give RUSI a unique insight and authority.


You're beyond reach, Jack. Carry on!

 

One of the the Twitter comments....

...absolutely spot on....if Russia wanted to to maintain the pretense of threat on the Northern border in order to tie up manpower why strip Belarus of ammo and make then combat ineffecitve ergo freeing those Uke troops that were up there to be re-deployed more effectively elsewhere?

 

More than 30 days ago, you were promising us that Kyiv would be in Russian hands. lol

 

Regardless of authorship, the propaganda marker is in the opening assumption: "war between two near-peer powers". The powers are not near-peers. The West has a modern industrial base; Russia is a large, cold India.

 

Good post.

No point in casting diamonds into pig pens though.

 

I am surprised that you of all people showed an astonishing level of ignorance. Almost nothing is made in the USA or UK. We provide services and our industrial base has largely bern moved abroad. China.

 

You mean we couldn't just convert all our Starbucks, McDonald's, and Apple stores into munitions factories?? If not China would help us right???

 

The relevant Raytheon and Lockheed Martin manufacturing is done in Tucson, AZ and Troy, AL, respectively.

 

Heh heh.
Russia blames U.S. for transit ban placed on its Kaliningrad exclave

The Russian Foreign Ministry on Friday accused the United States of “instigating” Lithuania to impose a railroad transit ban of European Union sanctioned goods between Russia and its Kaliningrad exclave.

“It’s difficult to view as coincidence the ban on the rail transit of a wide range of goods through the Kaliningrad region imposed by the ‘collective West’ after clear instigation and dictation from the White House, and the simultaneous disruption of a special flight home for our diplomats,” ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said in a statement.

Kaliningrad, which serves as headquarters to Moscow’s Baltic Sea Fleet, is sandwiched between NATO members Poland and Lithuania and relies on land connections to the rest of Russia for the majority of its imports. Lithuania announced in mid-June that it will enforce the E.U. sanctions and restrict supply lines to the region, drawing fierce condemnation from the Kremlin.

Zakharova also said Friday that Washington’s “rude and arrogant attempts to talk to us from a position of strength” make it impossible for the two countries to hold expert consultations on bilateral issues, but she didn’t elaborate when these meetings were supposed to take place.

On Wednesday, Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte said on Twitter that Russia’s attempt to characterize a transit ban on sanctioned goods to Kaliningrad as a blockade was a “lie,” adding that Lithuania was restricting the passage of sanctioned materials through its borders into Kaliningrad but letting rail passengers travel freely.

 

uk has Morphed into primarily a [financial] service economy, we have also managed to establish hundreds of offshore banks within the commonwealth (former colonial empire states) for tax avoidance purposes. thats why ALL of the major world banks moved to london from germany within the last decade, because of our vast crime syndicate .....imean network.

Britain’s overseas territories have topped a list of the world’s most significant tax havens ahead of Switzerland, the Netherlands and Luxembourg, according to the campaign group Tax Justice Network.

The British Virgin Islands were ranked as the “greatest enabler of corporate tax abuse”, with the Cayman Islands in second place and Bermuda third.

Britain appeared in the study, which is published every two years, at number 13, alongside its network of satellite territories. It was singled out for providing the widest scope for international corporations to cut their tax bills - theguardian.

In all seriousness though, the uk is corrupt as hell and the vast majority our politicians/government officials are real scumbags. good ppl like jeremy corbyn are being chased out of politics because of the state backed deplatforming of honest politicians.

 

I think it would be like the last time Russia dealt with Nazis, when the Russians kicked the out of the Germans in Stalingrad all the way back to Berlin.

 

It's no secret some Polish troops are there, keep up. And no, it wouldn't be a different war with a bunch of blue-haired NATO troops rolling in. At least the Nazis that NATO trained didn't have pronoun problems.

 

Who else remembers when the so-called military experts said Russia was out of missiles in April (or was it March)?

Western 'intelligence' is an oxymoron.

 

Hey Jack, I agree with you for once. Of course we couldn't contract out our very corrupt in-house military industrial complex. The Deep State has its sluts, so when the time comes for kickbacks, Raytheon and LM gets the call.

 

yeah they are that's why they're stripping them out of the other client states.....do you remember what they were saying Russia had a strong and capable military....

...no.... military intelligence is an oxymoron

 

When China gets into crappy fast food, we won't have anything left. You have pointed directly to why 'GDP', as the US calculates it, is a piss-poor economic measure. China's domestic product is manufactured goods. The US's domestic product is BigMacs and Facebook posts. China makes products you can use, repeatedly. America makes one-use products you flush down the toilet 30 minutes after you eat it.

 

Thanks

 

Gotta love them there bullocks