My 2 cents on China

Discussion in 'Political Opinions & Beliefs' started by (original)late, Aug 7, 2022.

  1. (original)late

    (original)late Banned

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    Since 1979, China had this policy, 'One Country, Two Systems. It was goofy, but it worked. Everybody pretended Taiwan wasn't independent, but of course it was.

    Xi killed it.

    What is likely to have happened here was that we needed to know how serious Xi was. Sending Pelosi was a test. She isn't part of the White House or the Dipcorp, so the administration had all options open about how to respond to whatever China did.

    From our POV, Xi failed the test.

    The strategic ambiguity of the past is gone. So now we have to build a new policy, and a new way to structure our forces in the region. You see, we challenged their credibility, and they may challenge ours. Now that we've pissed Xi, we need to be ready if he does something really stupid.

    None of this was necessary. The smart move by xi would have been to ignore it, or downplay it.

    But that's not where we are. A massive military exercise takes months of planning. They didn't just throw that together over the weekend. They were all ready, and just waiting for the right moment.

    The administration was already talking about selling more weapons to Taiwan. That caught my attention when it happened, almost exactly a year ago.

    It's a bit like chess.
     
    Last edited: Aug 7, 2022
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  2. Melb_muser

    Melb_muser Well-Known Member Donor

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    Okay, the point has been made. The US goes where it likes. Let's not unnecessarily aggravate China further. They might be looking for an excuse to invade, just like Russia.

    The smart move would be to quietly prep Taiwan and US and Allies for war. The question is when is the best timing to provoke that war - or delay it as long as possible?

    Perhaps it is a red herring and China has no intention of invading. My personal suspicion is that if China ever sees weakness they will invade.
     
    Last edited: Aug 7, 2022
  3. (original)late

    (original)late Banned

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    Provoking war is not on our agenda.

    As a guess, the whole thing is an exercise looking for a new way to prevent that war.
     
  4. Melb_muser

    Melb_muser Well-Known Member Donor

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    You're probably correct. Nevertheless, I had the thought that, if war is inevitable, there will be times when it is more or less desirable for China to invade.

    I think the key question is does China really want to take back Taiwan? And what will they sacrifice to do that?
     
  5. Hey Now

    Hey Now Well-Known Member

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    And it's also likely because of the local economic downturn (covid related) in China. The war drums are always beaten harder when the local economy is preforming subpar. Same as in America but America is much better positioned to have a shorter downturn.
     
    Last edited: Aug 7, 2022

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